Characterization of a landslide-triggered debris flow at a rainforest-covered mountain region in Brazil

Natural Hazards - Debris flows represent great hazard to humans due to their high destructive power. Understanding their hydrogeomorphic dynamics is fundamental in hazard assessment studies,...     

Sensing with boots and trousers — qualitative field observations of shallow soil moisture patterns

While soil moisture patterns can be interesting traits to investigate spatio‐temporal heterogeneity of catchments relevant for various physical processes of soil–atmosphere interaction and soil water redistribution, many of the existing methods to capture spatial patterns are time consuming, expensive or need site‐specific calibration. In this study we present a quick and inexpensive supplementary field method for classifying soil wetness in wet environments. The seven wetness classes are based on qualitative indicators, which one can touch, hear or see on the soil surface. To counter critics that such qualitative methods are considerably affected by subjectivity, we performed systematic testing of the method by taking qualitative measurements in the field with 20 non‐expert raters. We then analyzed these in terms of degree of agreement and assessed the results against gravimetric sampling and time domain reflectometry measurements. In 70% of all classifications raters agreed on the wetness class assigned to the marked sampling locations and in 95% they were not off by more than one wetness class. The seven quantitative wetness classes agreed with gravimetric and time domain reflectometry measurements, although intermediate to wet classes showed an overlap of their range whereas the driest classes showed considerable spread. Despite some potential to optimize the method, it has been shown to be a reliable supplement to existing quantitative techniques for assessing soil moisture patterns in wet environments. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

GREGOR solar telescope: Design and status

The integration and verification phase of the GREGOR telescope reached an important milestone with the installation of the interim 1 m SolarLite primary mirror. This was the first time that the entire light path had seen sunlight. Since then extensive testing of the telescope and its subsystems has been carried out. The integration and verification phase will culminate with the delivery and installation of the final 1.5 m Zerodur primary mirror in the summer of 2010. Observatory level tests and science verification will commence in the second half of 2010 and in 2011. This phase includes testing of the main optics, adaptive optics, cooling and pointing systems. In addition, assuming the viewpoint of a typical user, various observational modes of the GREGOR Fabry‐Pérot Interferometer (GFPI), the Grating Infrared Spectrograph (GRIS), and high‐speed camera systems will be tested to evaluate if they match the expectations and science requirements. This ensures that GREGOR will provide high‐quality observations with its combination of (multi‐conjugate) adaptive optics and advanced post‐focus instruments. Routine observations are expected for 2012 (© 2010 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Time-window-based filtering method for near-surface detection of leakage from geologic carbon sequestration sites

We use process-based modeling techniques to characterize the temporal features of natural biologically controlled surface CO₂ fluxes and the relationships between the assimilation and respiration fluxes. Based on these analyses, we develop a signal-enhancing technique that combines a novel time-window splitting scheme, a simple median filtering, and an appropriate scaling method to detect potential signals of leakage of CO₂ from geologic carbon sequestration sites from within datasets of net near-surface CO₂ flux measurements. The technique can be directly applied to measured data and does not require subjective gap filling or data-smoothing preprocessing. Preliminary application of the new method to flux measurements from a CO₂ shallow-release experiment appears promising for detecting a leakage signal relative to background variability. The leakage index of ±2 was found to span the range of biological variability for various ecosystems as determined by observing CO₂ flux data at various control sites for a number of years.     

An experimental determination of chlorine isotope fractionation in acid systems and applications to volcanic fumaroles

The δ³⁷Cl values of volcanic fumarole gases and bubbling springs were measured from the Central American and the Kurile arcs. Low temperature gas samples from the Central American arc have δ³⁷Cl values generally between −2 and 2‰, whereas high-temperature fumaroles (>100 °C) range from 4 to 12‰, with several outliers. This is in contrast to the high-temperature fumaroles from the Kurile island Kudryavy which have slightly positive δ³⁷Cl values, averaging 0.8‰ (±0.6, 1σ), and from our previous work on Izu and Mariana arc samples in which the δ³⁷Cl values of fumarole and ash samples are similar to each other and negative. Assuming that the source for the high-T Central American fumaroles has typical subduction δ³⁷Cl values (−2.5 to 1‰), then there must be a large Cl isotope fractionation in the near-surface fumarolic system. The most likely fractionation mechanism for the high δ³⁷Cl values is between Cl⁻_aq − HCl(g), but published theoretical fractionation for this pair is only ∼1.5‰, insufficient to explain the large range of values observed in the fumaroles. Three experiments were undertaken in order to identify a process that could cause the wide range of δ³⁷Cl values observed in the high-temperature fumaroles. Results are the following: (1) A sub-boiling equilibration experiment between aqueous chloride and HCl gas had , in agreement with the theoretical calculations. (2) Evaporation of HCl(g) from hydrochloric acid at room temperature had fractionation in the opposite sense, with a . (3) A ‘synthetic fumarole’ gave large positive fractionations up to 9‰, with ³⁷Cl strongly partitioned into the vapor phase. The ‘fumarole’ experiments were made by bubbling dry air through boiling hydrochloric acid in an Erlenmeyer flask, and collecting the evolved HCl(g) in a second ‘downstream’ flask filled with distilled water. This extreme enrichment is likely due to a distillation process in which ³⁷Cl-enriched HCl(g) is stripped from the hydrochloric acid followed by a significant fraction of the light HCl(g) redissolving into the constantly condensing water vapor on the walls of the first flask. This distillation experiment creates a Cl isotope fractionation that is the same order of magnitude as observed in the high-temperature fumaroles in Central America. These results suggest that there must be a H₂O liquid-vapor region in the sub-surface fumarole conduit where light Cl is stripped from the HCl gas as it passes through the fumarole. Similar ³⁷Cl enrichments are expected in fossil epithermal boiling systems.     

Climate change impacts on international seaports: knowledge, perceptions, and planning efforts among port administrators

Seaports are located in vulnerable areas to climate change impacts: on coasts susceptible to sea-level rise and storms or at mouths of rivers susceptible to flooding. They serve a vital function within the local, regional, and global economy. Their locations in the heart of sensitive estuarine environments make it an imperative to minimize the impacts of natural hazards. Climate impacts, like a projected SLR of .6?m to 2?m and doubling of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes by 2100, will result in more extreme events at many seaports. To assess the current state of knowledge on this issue, we surveyed port authorities from around the world about how administrators felt climate change might impact their operations, what sea-level change would create operational problems, and how they planned to adapt to new environmental conditions. The planned rapid expansion of ports reported by the survey respondents indicates that adaptation measures should be considered as ports construct new infrastructure that may still be in use at the end of the century. Respondents agreed that the ports community needs to address this issue and most felt relatively uninformed about potential climate impacts. Although most ports felt that SLR would not be an issue at their port this century, sea-level rise was nevertheless an issue of great concern. Our results suggest opportunities for the scientific community to engage with port practitioners to prepare proactively for climate change impacts on this sector.     

A reconstructed dynamic Indian monsoon index extended back to 1880

The authors present a reconstruction of summer (June–July–August) mean dynamic Indian monsoon index (DIMI) back to 1880 based on a large number of historical surface observation data as well as information from the upper air data. The reconstruction shows a satisfying skill in terms of both the value of reduction of error and an evaluation against other independent monsoon indices. The skill of reconstruction increases over time with more predictor data (in particular upper-level data) becoming available. A comparison with the observed all Indian summer monsoon rainfall index (AIRI) shows a high consistence in both inter-decadal and inter-annual variability. The reconstruction shows stronger than normal monsoon during the 1880s, 1915–1925 (around 1920) and 1930–1945 (around 1940) as the AIRI. The El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)—monsoon relationship is reasonably captured in the reconstruction. Powers concentrating within quasi-biennial band stand out in the reconstruction as well as in the AIRI. A comparison of the reconstruction against an atmospheric general circulation model simulation with specified SST and external forcing agents spanning 1901–1999 indicates a slightly higher reproducibility of monsoon circulation than monsoon rainfall in terms of interannual variability. The relationship between the Asian continent warming and the ENSO–monsoon connection is also discussed by using the new dynamic index.     

Future changes in daily summer temperature variability: driving processes and role for temperature extremes

Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are expected to lead to more frequent and intense summer temperature extremes, not only due to the mean warming itself, but also due to changes in temperature variability. To test this hypothesis, we analyse daily output of ten PRUDENCE regional climate model scenarios over Europe for the 2071–2100 period. The models project more frequent temperature extremes particularly over the Mediterranean and the transitional climate zone (TCZ, between the Mediterranean to the south and the Baltic Sea to the north). The projected warming of the uppermost percentiles of daily summer temperatures is found to be largest over France (in the region of maximum variability increase) rather than the Mediterranean (where the mean warming is largest). The underlying changes in temperature variability may arise from changes in (1) interannual temperature variability, (2) intraseasonal variability, and (3) the seasonal cycle. We present a methodology to decompose the total daily variability into these three components. Over France and depending upon the model, the total daily summer temperature variability is projected to significantly increase by 20–40% as a result of increases in all three components: interannual variability (30–95%), seasonal variability (35–105%), and intraseasonal variability (10–30%). Variability changes in northern and southern Europe are substantially smaller. Over France and parts of the TCZ, the models simulate a progressive warming within the summer season (corresponding to an increase in seasonal variability), with the projected temperature change in August exceeding that in June by 2–3 K. Thus, the most distinct warming is superimposed upon the maximum of the current seasonal cycle, leading to a higher intensity of extremes and an extension of the summer period (enabling extreme temperatures and heat waves even in September). The processes driving the variability changes are different for the three components but generally relate to enhanced land–atmosphere coupling and/or increased variability of surface net radiation, accompanied by a strong reduction of cloudiness, atmospheric circulation changes and a progressive depletion of soil moisture within the summer season. The relative contribution of these processes differs substantially between models.     

The CLIVAR C20C project: skill of simulating Indian monsoon rainfall on interannual to decadal timescales. Does GHG forcing play a role?

The ability of atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs), that are forced with observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs), to simulate the Indian monsoon rainfall (IMR) variability on interannual to decadal timescales is analyzed in a multimodel intercomparison. The multimodel ensemble has been performed within the CLIVAR International “Climate of the 20th Century” (C20C) Project. This paper is part of a C20C intercomparison of key climate time series. Whereas on the interannual timescale there is modest skill in reproducing the observed IMR variability, on decadal timescale the skill is much larger. It is shown that the decadal IMR variability is largely forced, most likely by tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs), but as well by extratropical and especially Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) related SSTs. In particular there has been a decrease from the late 1950s to the 1990s that corresponds to a general warming of tropical SSTs. Using a selection of control integrations from the World Climate Research Programme’s (WCRP’s) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3), it is shown that the increase of greenhouse gases (GHG) in the twentieth century has not significantly contributed to the observed decadal IMR variability.