Assessment of spatial transferability of process‐based hydrological model parameters in two neighbouring catchments in the Himalayan Region

Estimating the hydrological regime of ungauged catchments in the Himalayan region is challenging due to a lack of sufficient monitoring stations. In this paper, the spatial transferability of the model parameters of the process‐oriented J2000 hydrological model was investigated in 2 glaciated subcatchments of the Koshi river basin in eastern Nepal. The catchments have a high degree of similarity with respect to their static landscape features. The model was first calibrated (1986–1991) and validated (1992–1997) in the Dudh Koshi subcatchment. The calibrated and validated model parameters were then transferred to the nearby Tamor catchment (2001–2009). Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses were carried out for both subcatchments to discover the sensitivity range of the parameters in the two catchments. The model represented the overall hydrograph well in both subcatchments, including baseflow, rising and falling limbs; however, the peak flows were underestimated. The efficiency results according to both Nash–Sutcliffe (ENS) and the coefficient of determination (r²) were above 0.84 in both catchments (1986–1997 in Dudh Koshi and 2001–2009 in Tamor). The ranking of the parameters in respect to their sensitivity matched well for both catchments while taking ENS and log Nash–Sutcliffe (LNS) efficiencies into account. However, there were some differences in sensitivity to ENS and LNS for moderately and less‐sensitive parameters, although the majority (13 out of 16 for ENS and 16 out of 16 for LNS) had a sensitivity response in a similar range. The generalized uncertainty likelihood estimation results suggest that the parameter uncertainty are most of the time within the range and the ensemble mean matches very good (ENS: 0.84) with observed discharge. The results indicate that transfer of the J2000 parameters to a neighbouring catchment in the Himalayan region with similar physiographic landscape characteristics is viable. This indicates the possibility of applying a calibrated process‐based J2000 model to other ungauged catchments in the Himalayan region, which could provide important insights into the hydrological system dynamics and provide much needed information to support water resources planning and management.     

Chicxulub impact ejecta from Albion Island, Belize

Impact ejecta from the Albion Formation are exposed in northern Belize. The ejecta come from the outer portion of the continuous ejecta blanket of the Chicxulub crater, which is located 360 km to the northwest. The basal unit of the Albion Formation is a 1-m-thick clay and dolomite spheroid bed composed of up to four discrete flows. The clay spheroids are altered impact glass, and the dolomite spheroids are accretionary lapilli. The upper unit is a 15-m-thick coarse diamictite bed containing altered glass, large accretionary blocks, striated, polished, and impacted cobbles, and rare shocked quartz. The abundance of accretionary clasts, evidence for atmospheric drag sorting, and the presence of multiple flows in the Albion Formation indicate that atmospheres play an important role in the formation of the outer portions of continuous ejecta blankets of large craters.     

Geochemistry of the magmatic–hydrothermal system of Kawah Ijen volcano, East Java, Indonesia

Samples from Kawah Ijen crater lake, spring and fumarole discharges were collected between 1990 and 1996 for chemical and isotopic analysis. An extremely low pH (<0.3) lake contains SO₄–Cl waters produced during absorption of magmatic volatiles into shallow ground water. The acidic waters dissolve the rock isochemically to produce “immature” solutions. The strong D and ¹⁸O enrichment of the lake is mainly due to enhanced evaporation at elevated temperature, but involvement of a magmatic component with heavy isotopic ratios also modifies the lake D and ¹⁸O content. The large Δ_SO4–S⁰ (23.8–26.4‰) measured in the lake suggest that dissolved SO₄ forms during disproportionation of magmatic SO₂ in the hydrothermal conduit at temperatures of 250280°C. The lake δ¹⁸O_SO4 and δ¹⁸O_H2O values may reflect equilibration during subsurface circulation of the water at temperatures near 150°C. Significant variations in the lake's bulk composition from 1990 to 1996 were not detected. However, we interpret a change in the distribution and concentration of polythionate species in 1996 as a result of increased SO₂-rich gas input to the lake system.Thermal springs at Kawah Ijen consist of acidic SO₄–Cl waters on the lakeshore and neutral pH HCO₃–SO₄–Cl–Na waters in Blawan village, 17 km from the crater. The cation contents of these discharges are diluted compared to the crater lake but still do not represent equilibrium with the rock. The SO₄/Cl ratios and water and sulfur isotopic compositions support the idea that these springs are mixtures of summit acidic SO₄–Cl water and ground water.The lakeshore fumarole discharges (T=170245°C) have both a magmatic and a hydrothermal component and are supersaturated with respect to elemental sulfur. The apparent equilibrium temperature of the gas is 260°C. The proportions of the oxidized, SO₂-dominated magmatic vapor and of the reduced, H₂S-dominated hydrothermal vapor in the fumaroles varied between 1979 and 1996. This may be the result of interaction of SO₂-bearing magmatic vapors with the summit acidic hydrothermal reservoir. This idea is supported by the lower H₂S/SO₂ ratio deduced for the gas producing the SO₄–Cl reservoir feeding the lake compared with that observed in the subaerial gas discharges. The condensing gas may have equilibrated in a liquid–vapor zone at about 350°C.Elemental sulfur occurs in the crater lake environment as banded sediments exposed on the lakeshore and as a subaqueous molten body on the crater floor. The sediments were precipitated in the past during inorganic oxidation of H₂S in the lake water. This process was not continuous, but was interrupted by periods of massive silica (poorly crystallized) precipitation, similar to the present-day lake conditions. We suggest that the factor controlling the type of deposition is related to whether H₂S- or silica-rich volcanic discharges enter the lake. This could depend on the efficiency with which the lake water circulates in the hydrothermal cell beneath the crater. Quenched liquid sulfur products show δ³⁴S values similar to those found in the banded deposits, suggesting that the subaqueous molten body simply consists of melted sediments previously accumulated at the lake bottom.     

Hurricane Katrina induced nutrient runoff from an agricultural area to coastal waters in Biscayne Bay,Florida

Water quality surveys conducted in Biscayne Bay, Florida, indicated enhanced nutrient input coupled with increased runoff as a result of precipitation associated with Hurricane Katrina. Nutrient concentrations before Katrina ranged from 0.06–24.2 μM (mean 3.3 μM) for nitrate and 0.01–0.18 μM (mean 0.1 μM) for soluble reactive phosphate. Five days after Katrina, nitrate concentrations ranged from 0.87–80.0 μM (mean 17.0 μM), with a bay-wide mean increase of 5.2-fold over pre-hurricane levels. Soluble reactive phosphate concentrations ranged from 0.07–0.62 μM (mean 0.2 μM), with a bay-wide mean increase of 2-fold over pre-hurricane levels. The maximum concentrations for both nitrate and soluble reactive phosphate were found at a water quality monitoring station near the mouth of Mowry Canal, which drains an agricultural area in the southern Biscayne Bay watershed near Homestead, Florida. At this station, nitrate and soluble reactive phosphate concentrations increased 7- and 10-fold, respectively. Storm-induced fertilizer runoff from this agricultural area caused a bay-wide increase in nutrient concentrations after Hurricane Katrina. Nutrient concentrations in the bay returned to pre-hurricane levels within three months after Hurricane Katrina, showing the resiliency of the Biscayne Bay ecosystem.     

Inland and Offshore Propagation Speeds of a Sea Breeze from Simulations and Measurements

The inland and offshore propagation speeds of a sea breeze circulation cell are simulated using a three-dimensional hydrostatic model within a terrain-following coordinate system. The model includes a third-order semi-Lagrangian advection scheme, which compares well in a one-dimensional stand-alone test with the more complex Bott and Smolarkiewicz advection schemes. Two turbulence schemes are available: a local scheme by Louis (1979) and a modified non-local scheme based on Zhang and Anthes (1982). Both compare well with higher-order closure schemes using the Wangara data set for Day 33–34 (Clark et al., 1971).Two-dimensional cross-sections derived from airborne sea breeze measurements (Finkele et al. 1995) constitute the basis for comparison with two-dimensional numerical model results. The offshore sea breeze propagation speed is defined as the speed at which the seaward extent of the sea breeze grows offshore. On a study day, the offshore sea breeze propagation speed, from both measurements and model, is -3.4 m s^-1. The measured inland propagation speed of the sea breeze decreased somewhat during the day. The model results show a fairly uniform inland propagation speed of 1.6 m s^-1 which corresponds to the average measured value. The offshore sea breeze propagation speed is about twice the inland propagation speed for this particular case study, from both the model and measurements.The influence of the offshore geostrophic wind on the sea breeze evolution, offshore extent and inland penetration are investigated. For moderate offshore geostrophic winds (-5.0 m s^-1), the offshore and inland propagation speeds are non-uniform. The offshore extent in moderate geostrophic wind conditions is similar to the offshore extent in light wind conditions (-2.5 m s^-1). The inland extent is greater in light offshore geostrophic winds than in moderate ones. This suggests that the offshore extent of the sea breeze is less sensitive to the offshore geostrophic wind than its inland extent. However, these results hold only if it is possible to define an inland propagation speed. For stronger offshore geostrophic winds (-7.5 m s^-1), the sea breeze is completely offshore and the inland propagation speed is ill-defined.     

A comparison of satellite-retrieved and simulated cloud coverage in the Baltic Sea area as part of the BALTIMOS project

A cloud-detection algorithm for METEOSAT first generation data has been developed. The algorithm utilizes solely infrared data from the METEOSAT thermal infrared window channel at around 11.5 μm. The developed algorithm estimates an assumed clear-sky brightness temperature from time series analysis on pixel bases. Land-/sea-depending dynamic thresholds are then utilized discriminating the infrared images in cloudy, undecided, and cloud free pixels. The cloud-detection algorithm has been validated against synoptic observations. The developed cloud-detection scheme has been applied to 10 years (1992–2001) of METEOSAT data, extracting cloud coverage statistics for the Baltic Sea catchment area. These have been compared to corresponding cloud coverage statistics derived from the BALTIMOS coupled model system. Building overall averaged values of the cloud coverage in the period from 1999 to 2001 gives results with very good agreement between simulation and observation: the total METEOSAT-derived cloud coverage amounts to 0.65 compared to 0.63 for BALTIMOS. In contrast, large discrepancies in the phase of the diurnal cycle of cloud coverage have been observed. A significant trend in total cloud amount was observed neither from the model nor from the satellite.     

Modeling of pile installation using contact mechanics and quadratic elements

In geotechnical engineering, numerical analysis of pile capacity is often performed in such a way that piles are modeled using only the geometry of their final position in the ground and simply loaded to failure. In these analyses, the stress changes caused by the pile installation are neglected, irrespective of the installation method. For displacement piles, which are either pushed or hammered into the ground, such an approach is a very crude simplification. To model the entire installation process of displacement piles a number of additional nonlinear effects need to be considered. As the soil adjacent to the pile is displaced significantly, small deformation theory is no longer applicable and a large deformation finite element formulation is required. In addition, the continuously changing interface between the pile and the soil has to be considered. Recently, large deformation frictional contact has been used to model the pile installation and cone penetration processes. However, one significant limitation of the analysis was the use of linear elements, which have proven to be less accurate than higher order elements for nonlinear materials such as soils.

This paper presents a large deformation frictional contact formulation which can be coupled consistently with quadratic solid elements. The formulation uses the so-called mortar-type discretisation of the contact surfaces. The performance of this contact discretisation technique is demonstrated by accurately predicting the stress transfer between the pile and the soil surfaces.     

The CLIVAR C20C project: which components of the Asian–Australian monsoon circulation variations are forced and reproducible?

A multi-model set of atmospheric simulations forced by historical sea surface temperature (SST) or SSTs plus Greenhouse gases and aerosol forcing agents for the period of 1950–1999 is studied to identify and understand which components of the Asian–Australian monsoon (A–AM) variability are forced and reproducible. The analysis focuses on the summertime monsoon circulations, comparing model results against the observations. The priority of different components of the A–AM circulations in terms of reproducibility is evaluated. Among the subsystems of the wide A–AM, the South Asian monsoon and the Australian monsoon circulations are better reproduced than the others, indicating they are forced and well modeled. The primary driving mechanism comes from the tropical Pacific. The western North Pacific monsoon circulation is also forced and well modeled except with a slightly lower reproducibility due to its delayed response to the eastern tropical Pacific forcing. The simultaneous driving comes from the western Pacific surrounding the maritime continent region. The Indian monsoon circulation has a moderate reproducibility, partly due to its weakened connection to June–July–August SSTs in the equatorial eastern Pacific in recent decades. Among the A–AM subsystems, the East Asian summer monsoon has the lowest reproducibility and is poorly modeled. This is mainly due to the failure of specifying historical SST in capturing the zonal land-sea thermal contrast change across the East Asia. The prescribed tropical Indian Ocean SST changes partly reproduce the meridional wind change over East Asia in several models. For all the A–AM subsystem circulation indices, generally the MME is always the best except for the Indian monsoon and East Asian monsoon circulation indices.     

Comparison of precipitation in the regional climate model BALTIMOS to radar observations

Observational data and simulations of the regional climate system Baltic integrated model system (BALTIMOS) were used to study precipitation in the Baltic Sea and its drainage basin with a special focus on the diurnal cycle. The study includes a general evaluation of BALTIMOS precipitation, showing that BALTIMOS has too many light rain events causing an overestimation of the total annual precipitation amount. The diurnal cycle as well as its spatial distribution was analysed. BALTIMOS captures the broad characteristics: a significant diurnal variability with an afternoon peak above land and weak variability with a nocturnal peak above sea. An algorithm to distinguish between frontal and convective precipitation was applied to examine the diurnal cycle more thoroughly. The local solar time of maximum rain in summer is about 1 to 2 h earlier in BALTIMOS than in radar observations of precipitation.     

Carbon emission trading and carbon taxes under uncertainties

The idea of market-based carbon emission trading and carbon taxes is gaining in popularity as a global climate change policy instrument. However, these mechanisms might not necessarily have a positive outcome unless their value reflects socioeconomic and environmental impacts and regulations. Moreover, the fact that they have various inherent exogenous and endogenous uncertainties raises serious concerns about their ability to reduce emissions in a cost-effective way. This paper aims to introduce a simple stochastic model that allows the robustness of economic mechanisms for emission reduction under multiple natural and human-related uncertainties to be analyzed. Unlike standard equilibrium state analysis, the model shows that the explicit introduction of uncertainties regarding emissions, abatement costs, and equilibrium states makes it almost impossible for existing market-based trading and carbon taxes to be environmentally safe and cost-effective. Here we propose a computerized multi-agent trading model. This can be viewed as a prototype to simulate an emission trading market that is regulated in a decentralized way. We argue that a market of this type is better equipped to deal with long-term emission reductions, their direct regulation, irreversibility, and “lock-in” equilibria.