Non-stationary response of structures excited by random seismic processes with time variable frequency content

Seismic random processes are characterized by high non-stationarity and, in most cases, by a marked variability of frequency content. The hypothesis modeling seismic signal as a simple product of a stationary signal and a deterministic modulation function, consequently, is hardly ever applicable. Several mathematical models aimed at expressing the recorded process by means of a system of stationary random processes and deterministic amplitude and frequency modulations are proposed. Models oriented into the frequency domain with subsequent response analysis based on integral spectral resolution and models oriented into the time domain based on the multicomponent resolution are investigated. The resolution into individual components (non-stationary signals) is carried out by three methods. The resolution into intrinsic mode functions seems to possess the best characteristics and yields results almost not differing from the results obtained by stochastic simulation. An example of the seismic response of an existing bridge obtained by two older models and three variants of multicomponent resolution is given.     

The causes of land-use and land-cover change: moving beyond the myths

Common understanding of the causes of land-use and land-cover change is dominated by simplifications which, in turn, underlie many environment-development policies. This article tracks some of the major myths on driving forces of land-cover change and proposes alternative pathways of change that are better supported by case study evidence. Cases reviewed support the conclusion that neither population nor poverty alone constitute the sole and major underlying causes of land-cover change worldwide. Rather, peoples’ responses to economic opportunities, as mediated by institutional factors, drive land-cover changes. Opportunities and constraints for new land uses are created by local as well as national markets and policies. Global forces become the main determinants of land-use change, as they amplify or attenuate local factors.     

Inhomogeneities as a possible factor responsible for the acceleration of the Universe: a (2+1)-gravity study

Here we present an inhomogeneous cosmological model, in 2+1 gravity, which satisfy all the energy conditions, although it generates non deaccelerated universes. We work in a self-similar 2+1 gravity scenario, in order to simplify the equations system and to allow us to find analytical and simple solutions. Our propose is basically to improve our understanding on the role of inhomogeneities on the acceleration of the Universe.     

A distribution-free ordinal classification of floods based on moments

ABSTRACT

Classification of floods is often based on return periods of their peaks estimated from probability distributions and hence depends on assumptions. The choice of an appropriate distribution function and parameter estimation are often connected with high uncertainties. In addition, limited length of data series and the stochastic characteristic of the occurrence of extreme events add further uncertainty. Here, a distribution-free classification approach is proposed based on statistical moments. By using robust estimators the sampling effects are reduced and time series of different lengths can be analysed together. With a developed optimization procedure, locally and regionally consistent flood categories can be defined. In application, it is shown that the resulting flood categories can be used to assess the spatial extent of extreme floods and their coincidences. Moreover, groups of gauges, where simultaneous events belong to the same classes, are indicators for homogeneous groups of gauges in regionalization.     

Simulations of a Line W-based observing system for the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

In a series of observing system simulations, we test whether the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) can be observed based on the existing Line W deep western boundary array. We simulate a Line W array, which is extended to the surface and to the east to cover the basin to the Bermuda Rise. In the analyzed ocean circulation model ORCA025, such an extended Line W array captures the main characteristics of the western boundary current. Potential trans-basin observing systems for the AMOC are tested by combining the extended Line W array with a mid-ocean transport estimate obtained from thermal wind “measurements” and Ekman transport to the total AMOC (similarly to Hirschi et al., Geophys Res Lett 30(7):1413, 2003). First, we close Line W zonally supplementing the western boundary array with several “moorings” in the basin (Line W-32°N). Second, we supplement the western boundary array with a combination of observations at Bermuda and the eastern part of the RAPID array at 26°N (Line W-B-RAPID). Both, a small number of density profiles across the basin and also only sampling the eastern and western boundary, capture the variability of the AMOC at Line W-32°N and Line W-B-RAPID. In the analyzed model, the AMOC variability at both Line W-32°N and Line W-B-RAPID is dominated by the western boundary current variability. Away from the western boundary, the mid-ocean transport (east of Bermuda) shows no significant relation between the two Line W-based sections and 26°N. Hence, a Line W-based AMOC estimate could yield an estimate of the meridional transport that is independent of the 26°N RAPID estimate. The model-based observing system simulations presented here provide support for the use of Line W as a cornerstone for a trans-basin AMOC observing system.     

Hazardous gas emissions from the flanks of the quiescent Colli Albani volcano (Rome,Italy)

Gas hazard was evaluated in the three most important cold gas emission zones on the flanks of the quiescent Colli Albani volcano. These zones are located above structural highs of the buried carbonate basement which represents the main regional aquifer and the main reservoir for gas rising from depth. All extensional faults affecting the limestone reservoir represent leaking pathways along which gas rises to the surface and locally accumulates in shallow permeable horizons forming pressurized pockets that may produce gas blowout when reached by wells. The gas, mainly composed of CO₂ (>90 vol.%), contains appreciable quantities of H₂S (0.35–6 vol.%), and both represent a potentially high local hazard. Both gases are denser than air and accumulate near ground where they may reach hazardous concentrations, and lethal accidents frequently occur to animals watering at local ponds. In order to evaluate the rate of degassing and the related hazard, CO₂ and H₂S diffuse soil flux surveys have been repeatedly carried out using an accumulation chamber. The viscous gas flux of some important discrete emissions has been evaluated and the CO₂ and H₂S air concentration measured by portable devices and by Tunable Diode Laser profiles. The minimum potential lethal concentration of the two gases (250 ppm for H₂S and 8 vol.% for CO₂) is 320 times higher for CO₂, whereas the CO₂/H₂S concentration ratio in the emitted natural gas is significantly lower (15–159). This explains why H₂S reaches hazardous, even lethal, concentrations more frequently than CO₂. A relevant hazard exists for both gases in the depressed zones (channels, excavations) particularly in the non-windy early hours of the day.     

Quantification of organic pollutant degradation in contaminated aquifers using compound specific stable isotope analysis - Review of recent developments

Compound specific stable isotope analysis (CSIA) has been established as a viable tool for proving, characterizing and assessing degradation of organic pollutants within contaminated aquifers. The fractionation of stable isotopes during contaminant degradation leads to observable shifts in stable isotope ratios which can serve as an indicator for in situ pollutant degradation and allow for a quantitative assessment by means of the so-called Rayleigh (distillation) equation.This review highlights the recent developments of the Rayleigh equation approach for quantifying in situ degradation of organic pollutants in contaminated aquifers. The advantages and limitations of the Rayleigh equation approach are discussed and suggestions for improvements are given. Concepts are provided to estimate the uncertainty due to errors or variability of input parameters and how to deal with such uncertainty. Moreover, the applicability of the Rayleigh equation approach is evaluated regarding the heterogeneity and complexity of groundwater systems. For such systems, the review discusses the relevance of non-destructive processes, which affect the concentration (e.g., dispersive mixing) and potentially also the stable isotope ratio of contaminants (e.g., sorption, volatilization), and the resulting implications for the Rayleigh equation approach.     

Geo-ecological spatial pattern analysis of the island of Fogo (Cape Verde)

With its small-scale climatic, floristic and geo-ecological differentiation, the island of Fogo is an optimal research area for understanding semi-arid island ecosystems in the marginal tropics. Because of the high variability in precipitation, the archipelago of Cape Verde has a potentially high ecological vulnerability, which is caused mainly by population growth, intensification of agricultural land use and increasing tourism.In this context, a geo-ecological spatial pattern analysis has been conducted for Fogo, including several types of geo-ecological layers like vegetation, elevation, aspect, soil and geology. The different kinds of spatial patterns that are detected can be used as a first tool to display distinctive levels of ecological vulnerability. These levels could constitute a base for sustainable land use planning and the redevelopment of agricultural strategies.     

Geological interpretation of gravity profiles through the Karlovy Vary granite massif (Czech Republic)

We examined the shape of the Late Variscan Karlovy Vary granite massif located south of the Ohre/Eger graben in Northern Bohemia by reinterpretation of existing gravity data on two perpendicular profiles. The granite body of about 360 km² total outcrop size has the elongation ratio 0.35 with the major axis trending NE-SW. The SW part of the body was crossed in the nineties by the seismic profile 9HR which localized the bottom of granites in a depth of about 10 km. We used this value as a reference datum in our gravity profiles. We positioned one of our profiles along the seismic profile 9HR and the other one perpendicularly, i.e. parallel with the elongation of the outcrop surface. We interpret the shape of the main granite body in the vicinity of Karlovy Vary as a continuous desk whose floor is horizontal (or subhorizontal) and varies along its whole extension about a depth of 10 km. This thickness is approximately identical with that of the Saxothuringian nappes imaged by seismic reflection. The near surface upper contact of the granite body is mildly inclined, and outward dipping. It changes to steep sides or inward inclined contacts in deeper levels. The Lesny-Lysina (Kynžvart) massif is a separate granite body about 324 km thick, not continuously connected with the main Karlovy Vary massif. The gravity curve suggests that granites often enclose in their endocontact large blocks of country metasediments or metabasites the existence of which is partly evidenced by their outcrops outside the line of the profile. The granite body is found density-homogenous. Minor density differences between granite varieties are caused mainly by more intense hydrothermal alterations in younger suite granites. We interpret vertical conduits for the ascent of granitic magmas to be parallel to the Jáchymov-Gera and Ohře (Eger) lineaments or the Mariánské Lázně fault zone as indicated by the elongation of some outcrops. However, they are not clearly imaged from the gravity data. The effect of the depression of the Sokolov basin along the faults parallel with the Ohře (Eger) lineament is shallow and it is not indicated by any change in the floor depth of the granite body. Comparison of the seismicity distribution suggests that the hypocenters occur mostly outside of the granite bodies or near their contact with the country rock.     

Morphological signatures of normal faulting in low‐gradient alluvial rivers in south‐eastern Louisiana,USA

We explore the fluvial response to faulting in three low‐gradient, sand‐bed rivers in south‐eastern Louisiana, USA, that flow across active normal faults from footwall (upstream) to hangingwall (downstream). We calculate sinuosity, migration rate and migration direction in order to identify anomalies spatially associated with fault scarps. In two of the rivers we model one‐dimensional steady water flow to identify anomalies in surface water slope, width‐to‐depth ratio, and shear stress. In each of these rivers there is one location where flow modeling suggests potential channel incision through the footwall, as indicated by relatively high surface water slopes and shear stress values. In one of these footwall locations, the river straightens and width‐to‐depth ratios decrease, likely contributing to higher surface water slopes and shear stress. This is in contrast to previous studies that have proposed increased sinuosity across fault footwalls and decreased sinuosity across hangingwalls. However, in two hangingwall locations we also observe relatively less sinuous channels. Other planform changes on the hangingwall include topographic steering of channels along and towards the fault and one example of an avulsion. The most notable anomaly in migration rate occurs on the hangingwall of a fault where a river has cut off a meander loop. Although fluvial response to faulting varies here, comparatively large and small channels exhibit similar responses. Further, Pleistocene fault slip rates are orders of magnitude lower than the channel migration rates, suggesting that faulting should not be a major influence on the fluvial evolution. Nonetheless, notable channel anomalies exist near faults, suggesting that recent fault slip rates are higher than Pleistocene rates, and/or that low‐gradient alluvial channels are more sensitive to faulting than previous studies have suggested. Rivers appear to be influenced by faulting in this setting, however background rates of meander loop cutoff may be just as influential as faulting. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.