Land acquisition: a means to mitigate water scarcity and reduce conflict?

ABSTRACT

In recent years there has been a surge in land investments, primarily in the African continent, but also in Asia and Latin America. This increase in land investment was driven by the food pricing crisis of 2007–2008. Land investors can be identified from a variety of sectors, with actors ranging from hedge funds to national companies. Many water-scarce countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) are among these financiers, and primarily invest in Africa. Recognizing the potential for “outsourcing” their food security (and thereby also partly their water security), Middle Eastern countries such as Jordan, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates have invested in land for food production in Africa. The extent to which this is happening is still unclear, as many contracts are not yet official and the extent of the leases is vague. This paper investigates the land investments and acquisitions by Middle Eastern countries. It also seeks to analyse what effect, if any, these investments can have on the potential for conflict reduction and subsequent peacebuilding in the Middle East region as the activity removes pressure from transboundary water resources.

EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis ASSOCIATE EDITOR K. Aggestam     

Near real-time high-resolution airborne camera,AEROCam, for precision agriculture

Precision agriculture often relies on high-resolution imagery to delineate the variability within a field. Airborne Environmental Research Observational Camera (AEROCam) was designed to meet the needs of agriculture producers, ranchers, and researchers, who require high-resolution imagery in a near real-time environment for rapid decision support. AEROCam was developed and operated through a unique collaboration between several departments at the University of North Dakota, including the Upper Midwest Aerospace Consortium (UMAC), the School of Engineering and Mines, and flight operations at the John D. Odegard School of Aerospace Sciences. AEROCam consists of a Redlake MS4100 area-scan multi-spectral digital camera that features a 1920 × 1080 CCD array (7.4-μm detector) with 8-bit quantization. When operated at ～2 km above ground level, multispectral images with four bands in the visible and near infrared have a ground sample distance of 1 m with a horizontal extent of just over 1.6 km. Depending on the applications, flying at different altitudes can adjust the spatial resolution from 0.25 to 2 m. Rigorous spectral and radiometric calibrations allow AEROCam to be used in a variety of applications, qualitative and quantitative. Equipped with an inertial measurement unit (IMU) system, the images acquired can be geo-referenced automatically and delivered to end users near real time through our Digital Northern Great Plains system (DNGP). The images are also available to zone mapping application for precision farming (ZoneMAP), an online decision support tool for creating management zones from remote sensing imagery and data from other sources. Operational since 2004, AEROCam has flown over 250 sorties and delivered over 150,000 images to the users in the Northern Great Plains region, resulting in numerous applications in precision agriculture and resource management.     

Mechanisms of tropical precipitation biases in climate models

Climate Dynamics - We investigate the possible causes for inter-model spread in tropical zonal-mean precipitation pattern, which is divided into hemispherically symmetric and anti-symmetric modes...     

A Before–After–Control–Impact Analysis of the Effects of a Mississippi River Freshwater Diversion on Estuarine Nekton in Louisiana, USA

Since 1991, the Caernarvon Freshwater Diversion has been reintroducing Mississippi River water into a previously hydrologically isolated estuary in an effort to restore wetlands. To determine the effect of freshwater inflow on estuarine nekton community structure, a Before?CAfter?CControl?CImpact study design was applied. As a result of the opening, salinities in the impact area decreased, and the nekton community structure in the estuary changed significantly. Species of economical or ecological importance either increased in biomass or exhibited no response to the opening of the diversion. Higher abundances of small fish were observed in the area receiving freshwater flow, which is an indication that the area serves as a refuge from large marine predators. Because a salinity gradient was established, as opposed to a uniform but lower salinity regime, aquatic habitat was available to nekton species from a wide spectrum of salinity tolerances.     

Increased As load to the Uchen stream due to mine drainage and soils in the abandoned Kangwon mining district of Korea

To determine the appropriate allocation of resources for the future restoration of the abandoned mining district of Kangwon in Korea, identification of the main pollutants and the main sources discharging these pollutants is crucial. Therefore, a 2-year study was undertaken to quantify the amount of pollutants in the Uchen stream (a potential sink for contamination), which runs through the district, and to determine the potential sources of these pollutants, including mine drainage and soil. Arsenic (As) was the main pollutant in mine drainage and soils showing concentrations above the Korean regulated standard levels of 50 μg L⁻¹ and 50 mg kg⁻¹ for water and soil, respectively. In addition, the pollution index (PI) showed that mine drainages were polluted by As to a moderate (2 ≤ PI < 3) or strong (4 ≤ PI < 5) degree. Consequently, As load in mine drainage and soil contributed to increased amounts of As in the stream. The As loads in mine drainages (11 and 587 g month⁻¹ for mine adit 1 and 2, respectively) accounted for only 9% of the total As load to the stream (6,378 g month⁻¹); and the influence of mine drainages on As contents in the stream was more reliant on the total volume of mine drainage generated rather than the As concentration in the mine drainage. Approximately 91% of the As in the stream was derived from the soils within the study area.     

Screening of extraction methods for Cd and As bioavailability prediction in rhizospheric soil using multivariate analyses

Heavy metals in tailings and mining wastes from abandoned mines can be released into adjacent agricultural field and bioaccumulated in crops or vegetables. Therefore, prediction of metal bioavailability has become an important issue to prevent adverse effect of bioaccumulated metals on human health. In this study, single and sequential extraction methods were compared using multivariate analysis to predict the bioavailability of Cd and As in contaminated rhizosphere soils. Single extraction using 0.1 M HCl for Cd and 1.0 M HCl for As had an extraction efficiency of 8–12% for soil Cd and 14–17% for soil As compared to total concentration extracted with aqua regia. Using sequential extraction, Fe–Mn-bound Cd (FR3) and residual Cd (FR5) were the dominant fractions representing 43 and 41% of total Cd concentration. For As, the strongly absorbed form (FR2) was the most abundant chemical fraction showing 45–54% of the total As concentration in soil. Multivariate analyses showed that single extraction with HCl and total concentration of Cd and As in soil were significantly correlated to potato and green onion plant tissue metal concentration. Although little information was obtained with multiple regression analysis because of multicollinearity of variables, the result of principle component analysis (PCA) revealed that the highest positive loading was obtained using total concentration of Cd and As in soil in the first principle component (PC1). In addition, total concentration of Cd and As in soil was independently grouped with other chemical fractions by cluster analysis. Therefore, the overall result of this research indicated that total concentrations of Cd and As in rhizosphere soils were the best predictors of bioavailability of heavy metals in these contaminated soils.     

Suggestion of a method for landslide early warning using the change in the volumetric water content gradient due to rainfall infiltration

An early warning system can be an effective measure to reduce the damage caused by landslides by facilitating the timely evacuation of residents from a landslide-prone area. Early detection of landslide triggering across a broad range of natural terrain types can be accomplished by monitoring rainfall and the physical property changes of soils in real time or near-real time. This study involved the installation of a real-time monitoring system to observe physical property changes in soils in a valley during rainfall events. This monitoring included the measurement of volumetric water content, which was compared with the results of laboratory flume tests to identify landslide indicators in the soils. The response of volumetric water content to rainfall events is more immediate than that of pore-water pressure, and volumetric water content retains its maximum value for some time before slope failure. Therefore, an alternative method for landslide monitoring can be based on the observation of volumetric water content and its changes over time at shallow soil depths. Although no landslide occurred, the field monitoring results showed a directly proportional relationship between the effective cumulative rainfall and the gradient of volumetric water content per unit time (t/t _max). This preliminary study thus related slope failure to the volumetric water content gradient as a function of rainfall. Laboratory results showed that a high amount of rainfall and a high gradient of volumetric water content could induce slope failure. Based on these results, it is possible to suggest a threshold value of the volumetric water content gradient demarcating the conditions for slope stability and slope failure. This threshold can thus serve as the basis of an early warning system for landslides considering both rainfall and soil properties.     

The evaluation of the probability of rock wedge failure using the point estimate method

In a probabilistic analysis of rock slope stability, the Monte Carlo simulation technique has been widely used to evaluate the probability of slope failure. While the Monte Carlo simulation technique has many advantages, the technique requires complete information of the random variables in stability analysis; however, in practice, it is difficult to obtain complete information from a field investigation. The information on random variables is usually limited due to the restraints of sampling numbers. This is why approximation methods have been proposed for reliability analyses. Approximation methods, such as the first-order second-moment method and the point estimate method, require only the mean and standard deviation of the random variable; therefore, it is easy to utilize when the information is limited. Usually, a single closed form of the formula for the evaluation of the factor of safety is needed for an approximation method. However, the commonly used stability analysis method of wedge failure is complicated and cumbersome and does not provide a simple equation for the evaluation of the factor of safety. Consequently, the approximation method is not appropriate for wedge failure. In order to overcome this limitation, a simple equation, which is obtained from the maximum likelihood estimation method for wedge failure, is utilized to calculate the probability of failure. A simple equation for the direct estimation of the safety factors for wedge failure has been empirically derived from failed and stable cases of slope, using the maximum likelihood estimation method. The developed technique has been applied to a practical example, and the results from the developed technique were compared to the results from the Monte Carlo simulation technique.     

Combined analyses of chemometrics and kriging for identifying groundwater contamination sources and origins at the Masan coastal area in Korea

Hydrogeochemical analyses including the basic statistics of chemical components, Piper??s trilinear diagram, and Mazor??s compositional bivariate diagram revealed that the main source and origin of groundwater contamination was seawater intrusion in the study area. However, the other sources and origins of groundwater contamination could be found by the combined analyses of chemometrics and kriging. Cluster analysis was helpful for the classification on the basis of the contamination characteristics of groundwater quality; however, it was not sufficient for the apportionment of groundwater contamination sources. Factor analysis (FA) determined three factors with 81.07% in total variance: Factor 1 for seawater contamination, Factor 2 for nitrate contamination, and Factor 3 for iron contamination. Factor analysis determined the sources of groundwater contamination; however, it could not discover the origins of contaminants except Factor 1. In backward stepwise mode, discriminant analysis decreased the number of parameters from 18 to 6 in discriminating the contaminant type with 96.2% correctness. TDS, Ca, NO₃, Mn, Fe, and Br were the most significant parameters for the discrimination of contaminants. Kriging analysis was very useful for the understanding of correlation and similarity between contaminants and factors of FA, and for the investigation of contaminant origins. It also showed that the similarity between factor scores and contaminant concentrations was proportional to the magnitudes of factor loadings for contaminants. This study represented that the combined analyses of chemometrics and kriging were very indispensable to the identification of groundwater contamination sources and origins, as well as for the spatial classification and assessment of groundwater quality.