A stock assessment for Illex argentinus in Southwest Atlantic using an environmentally dependent surplus production model

The southern Patagonian stock(SPS) of Argentinian shortfin squid, Illex argentinus, is an economically important squid fishery in the Southwest Atlantic. Environmental conditions in the region play an important role in regulating the population dynamics of the I. argentinus population. This study develops an environmentally dependent surplus production(EDSP) model to evaluate the stock abundance of I. argentines during the period of 2000 to 2010. The environmental factors(favorable spawning habitat areas with sea surface temperature of 16–18°C) were assumed to be closely associated with carrying capacity(K) in the EDSP model. Deviance Information Criterion(DIC) values suggest that the estimated EDSP model with environmental factors fits the data better than a Schaefer surplus model without environmental factors under uniform and normal scenarios.The EDSP model estimated a maximum sustainable yield(MSY) from 351 600 t to 685 100 t and a biomass from 1 322 400 t to1 803 000 t. The fishing mortality coefficient of I. argentinus from 2000 to 2010 was smaller than the values of F_(0.1) and F_(MSY). Furthermore, the time series biomass plot of I. argentinus from 2000 to 2010 shows that the biomass of I.argentinus and this fishery were in a good state and not presently experiencing overfishing. This study suggests that the environmental conditions of the habitat should be considered within squid stock assessment and management.     

Joint modelling of wave spectral parameters for extreme sea states

Characterising the dependence between extremes of wave spectral parameters such as significant wave height (H_S) and spectral peak period (T_P) is important in understanding extreme ocean environments and in the design and assessment of marine structures. For example, it is known that mean values of wave periods tend to increase with increasing storm intensity. Here we seek to characterise joint dependence in a straightforward manner, accessible to the ocean engineering community, using a statistically sound approach.Many methods of multivariate extreme value analyses are based on models which assume implicitly that in some joint tail region each parameter is either independent of or asymptotically dependent on other parameters; yet in reality the dependence structure in general is neither of these. The underpinning assumption of multivariate regular variation restricts these methods to estimation of joint regions in which all parameters are extreme; but regions where only a subset of parameters are extreme can be equally important for design. The conditional approach of Heffernan and Tawn (2004), similar in spirit to that of Haver (1985) but with better theoretical foundation, overcomes these difficulties.We use the conditional approach to characterise the dependence structure of H_S and T_P. The key elements of the procedure are: (1) marginal modelling for all parameters, (2) transformation of data to a common standard Gumbel marginal form, (3) modelling dependence between data for extremes of pairs of parameters using a form of regression, (4) simulation of long return periods to estimate joint extremes. We demonstrate the approach in application to measured and hindcast data from the Northern North Sea, the Gulf of Mexico and the North West Shelf of Australia. We also illustrate the use of data re-sampling techniques such as bootstrapping to estimate the uncertainty in marginal and dependence models and accommodate this uncertainty in extreme quantile estimation.We discuss the current approach in the context of other approaches to multivariate extreme value estimation popular in the ocean engineering community.     

Active mud volcanoes on the upper slope of the western Nile deep-sea fan—first results from the P362/2 cruise of R/V Poseidon

In February 2008, cruise P362/2 was undertaken aboard R/V Poseidon to the Giza and North Alex mud volcanoes (MVs) on the upper slope of the western Nile deep-sea fan. Emitted fluids were strongly depleted in chloride and rich in hydrocarbons, predominantly of thermogenic origin. In-situ sediment temperature measurements indicate extremely high and moderate levels of activity for the North Alex MV and Giza MV, respectively, and suggest rapid changes from dormant to active stages. Both the physical properties of core sediments (e.g., color and magnetic susceptibility), and their assemblages of micro- and nannofossils point to different sources for the two mud volcanoes. Biostratigraphic dating suggests source depths of 2,100–2,450 mbsf for the Giza MV and 1,150–1,550 mbsf for the North Alex MV. Very high temperatures of up to 70°C in shallow sediments at the North Alex MV can be explained only if the fluid source were warmer and deeper than the sediment source.     

Dynamics of the Tropical Middle Atmosphere: A Tutorial Review*

Abstract

The general circulation of the tropical stratosphere, mesosphere and lowermost thermosphere is discussed at a tutorial level. Observations of the quasi‐biennial and semiannual oscillations by both in situ and satellite techniques are first reviewed. The basic dynamics controlling the zonal‐mean component of the circulation are then discussed. The role of radiative diabatic cooling in constraining the zonal‐mean circulation in the middle atmosphere is emphasized. It is shown that the effectiveness of this radiative constraint is reduced at low latitudes, allowing for the sustained mean flow accelerations over long periods of time characteristic of the quasi‐biennial and semiannual oscillations in the tropics.

The current view is that the dominant driving for the equatorial mean flow accelerations seen in the middle atmosphere derives from vertically‐propagating waves. This process is illustrated here in its simplest context, i.e. the Plumb (1977) model of the interaction of monochromatic internal gravity waves with the mean flow (based on earlier work of Lindzen and Holton, 1968; Holton and Lindzen, 1972). It is shown that the dynamics illustrated by this simple model can serve as the basis for an explanation of the quasi‐biennial oscillation.

The paper then describes some of recent developments in the theory of the quasi‐biennial and semiannual oscillations, including aspects related to the interaction between tropics and midlatitudes in the middle atmosphere. The paper concludes with a discussion of the effects of the long period dynamical variations in the tropical circulation on the chemical composition of the stratosphere.     

Estimating impacts of warming temperatures on California's electricity system

Despite a clear need, little research has been carried out at the regional-level to quantify potential climate-related impacts to electricity production and delivery systems. This paper introduces a bottom-up study of climate change impacts on California's energy infrastructure, including high temperature effects on power plant capacity, transmission lines, substation capacity, and peak electricity demand. End-of-century impacts were projected using the A2 and B1 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios. The study quantifies the effect of high ambient temperatures on electricity generation, the capacity of substations and transmission lines, and the demand for peak power for a set of climate scenarios. Based on these scenarios, atmospheric warming and associated peak demand increases would necessitate up to 38% of additional peak generation capacity and up to 31% additional transmission capacity, assuming current infrastructure. These findings, although based on a limited number of scenarios, suggest that additional funding could be put to good use by supporting R&D into next generation cooling equipment technologies, diversifying the power generation mix without compromising the system's operational flexibility, and designing effective demand side management programs.     

Structure and subduction processes along the Oregon-Washington margin

Seismic reflection and refraction data off Washington and Oregon are used to determine the style of sediment deformation and to infer the physical properties of accreted sediments on the lower slope. Onshore-offshore seismic refraction data off Washington are used to determine the location of the trench, or where the plate bending starts.We find that off Washington the subduction zone is characterized by a trench whose physiographic expression is buried under several kilometers of sediments and is tens of kilometers landward of the lower slope, which is accreting seaward as the result of the offscraping of sediments.Seismic reflection data support previous observations that offscraping occurs along seaward and landward dipping thrust faults. Refraction data indicate that a sediment package thrust up along a seaward dipping fault (off Washington) was not measurably changed in velocity with respect to a Cascadia basin section. However a package uplifted by thrusting along a landward dipping fault (off Oregon) did have increased velocity. It is suggested that the increased velocities off Oregon could be the result of erosion and exposure of more deeply buried and compacted sediments, rather than the result of dewatering due to tectonic stress. Off Washington the sensitivity of velocity to porosity and resolution of the seismic method does not preclude dewatering due to tectonic stress, but it does limit the degree of dewatering.In the deeper parts of the lower slope section off Washington and Oregon velocities as high as 3 to 4 km/sec are found. Heat flow data indicate that the temperatures in this high velocity regime are greater than 100°C. It is hypothesized that lithification related to clay diagenesis may be partly responsible for the high velocities, rather than simply compaction. It also appears that the high velocity sediments are subducted while the unlithified low velocity sediments are offscraped.     

The unique,widely distributed,estuarine sea anemone,Nematostella vectensis Stephenson: A review,new facts,and questions

The small, burrowing, edwardsiid sea anemone Nematostella vectensis is widely distributed in estuaries and bays. Most typically it occurs in pools in marshes though it may occur subtidally as well. We have compiled records of its occurrence in North America from Nova Scotia to Georgia along the shores of the Atlantic Ocean, from Florida to Louisiana in the Gulf of Mexico and from California to Washington on the Pacific coast. To date we have found no records of its presence in Alabama or Texas, though it is present in all other of the contiguous coastal states of the United States. The species also occurs in England. We have obtained living specimens from many locations and have crossed females from England, Maryland, Georgia, California, Oregon, and Washington with males from Nova Scotia, Maryland, Georgia, and Oregon. These 24 crosses all yielded viable first-generation anemones that in turn produced second-generation animals. We accept this as proof that this widely distributed anemone is a single species. We have obtained living N. vectensis from 11 areas. Of these, only samples from Maine, Maryland, Georgia, and Oregon contained both sexes. The sample from Nova Scotia was all male and our samples from England, New Hampshire, California, and Washington were all female. We hypothesize that the unisexual samples were from clones resulting from asexual reproduction in this species. *** DIRECT SUPPORT *** A01BY066 00015     

Multiple Residence and Cyclical Migration: A Life Course Perspective*

As a result of restrictive time-space bounds in viewing migration, surprisingly little is known about the tempos and rhythms of geographical mobility in America. We discuss limitations of the conventional definition of migration and develop a life course framework of multiple residence and cyclical migration. Results of an Arizona-based case study reveal that multiple residence is common and more diverse than the annual influx of elderly snowbirds. Coming to grips with multiple residence and recurrent mobility in the United States represents a fundamental challenge in population and migration studies.     

High-resolution garnet chronometry and the rates of metamorphic processes

Garnets in an amphibolite-facies metasediment from Sulitjelma, North Norway yield precise and concordant SmNd, UPb and RbSr ages that relate directly to the pressure (P) and temperature (T) conditions of mineral growth. Differential mineral reaction between graphitic and non-graphitic layers within this sample preserves a record of theP-T and time (t) history experienced during Barrovian regional metamorphism. Garnets in graphitic layers grew during prograde metamorphism at462 ± 16°C and5.2 ± 0.5 kbar under conditions of lowaH₂O, and yield indistinguishable¹⁴⁷Sm¹⁴³Nd and²³⁸U²⁰⁶Pb ages of434.1 ± 1.2 Ma and433.9 ± 1.0 Ma, respectively. In contrast, garnet growth in adjacent graphite-free layers did not occur untilP-T conditions of540 ± 18°C and8.0 ± 1.0 kbar were attained, with continued growth in response to minor heating and decompression with final matrix equilibration at544 ± 16°C and7.0 ± 1.0 kbar. The inclusion-free garnet rims in this assemblage record indistinguishable¹⁴⁷Sm¹⁴³Nd and²³⁸U²⁰⁶Pb ages of424.6 ± 1.2 Ma and423.4± 1.7 Ma, respectively. These results provide precise estimates for average heating and burial rates during prograde metamorphism of 8.6_−4.4^+7.5°C Ma⁻¹ and 0.8_−0.5^+0.9 km Ma⁻¹, respectively. Rb and Sr exchange between coexisting silicates in the graphite-free assemblage continued for some 37 Ma after the “peak” of metamorphism, and require an average cooling rate of about 4.0°C Ma⁻¹ during uplift. These results illustrate a clear relationship between reaction history and the timing of mineral growth and provide definitive constraints on the rates of thermal and tectonic processes accompanying regional metamorphism.     

210Pb dating of scottish lake sediments,afforestation and accelerated soil erosion

Changes in the rate of soil erosion in lake catchments can be identified from changes in the rate of sediment accumulation in lakes. Here we compare recently afforested sites with non-afforested sites in the Galloway area of Southwest Scotland. We show that lakes with non-afforested catchments have slow, constant sediment accumulation rates, whereas lakes with recently afforested catchments have changes in accumulation that parallel the known history of afforestation. For Loch Grannoch the sediment accumulation rate increases from 0.1 cm yr^?1 to over 2 cm yr^?2 during the disturbance period. Data from L. Skerrow, however, suggest that the rate might decline to predisturbance levels after approximately 10 years as the forest canopy closes and drainage channels stabilize.