About time: An integrative approach to effective environmental policy

Intertemporal trade-offs are ubiquitous in environmental decision-making and policy, yet comprehensive, practical guides are lacking. This paper introduces an adaptive, iterative approach to environmental policy, combining the insights of economics, psychology, and anthropology. We first summarize the major paradigms of each discipline, including models, concepts of time preference, strengths, and blind spots. Subsequently, we illustrate the integrative approach through four real-world environmental examples: a shopper purchasing a light bulb, an organization doing building renovations, a community considering a new source of renewable energy, and international organizations developing index insurance for farmers in the Horn of Africa. One-dimensional approaches are ill-suited to real-world challenges such as these, because each discipline only tackles one facet of the issue. In contrast, with each discipline informing the others, the integrative approach is more than the sum of its parts. This paper provides a concise guide for applied researchers and policy makers alike.     

Volcano-seismic crisis in Montserrat,West Indies, 1966–67

The Soufriere Hills volcano in the south-eastern part of Montserrat erupted pyroclast flows as recently as A. D. 1646 ± 54 years and must therefore be considered dormant, not extinct. The highly destructive nature of pyroclast flow eruptions makes it imperative that such activity should be predicted and, if the threat of eruption becomes sufficiently large, the population should be moved to a sale distance from the volcano. Sharp increases in seismic and solfataric activity occurred in 1966 and these events indicated the abnormally high risk of an eruption in the near future. A network of four short period seismographs was established in the island in May 1966 and between this date and the end of 1967, 723 local earthquakes were recorded, of which 32 were reported felt in the island. Hypocentres were determined for 189 of these earthquakes, and most of these lay in a WNW to ESE belt beneath the Soufriere Hills, at depths of less than 15 km. The average rate of seismic energy release decreased with time throughout the series but there was a strong seasonal variation with maxima in May and November–December of each year. The average depth of the earthquakes decreased from 5.2 km in April and May 1966 to a minimum of 2.8 km from July to September 1966. After September the mean focal depths increased again and by the end of the crisis in November 1967 the mean depth was 9.7 km. Measurements carried out using water-tube tiltmeters showed that the region 2–3 km south-east of the Soufriere Hills was doming upwards until January 1967, then subsided between January–March 1967 and finally rose again at a slower rate between March and September 1967. Heat flow from Galway’s Soufriere which was 3 × 10⁵ cal/sec in 1954 increased to a maximum of 2 × 10⁵ cal/sec in October 1966, then declined to 5 × 10⁵ cal/sec in September 1967. The earthquake series was not the aftershock sequence of any major tectonic earthquake, and only two hypocentres were determined at depths greater than 15 km. It is concluded that magma was intruded into the upper crust beneath the Soufriere Hills volcano and that the earthquakes and other phenomena resulted from the upward migration of this magma.     

Climate change and transportation in Northern Canada: an integrated impact assessment

The physical and economic impacts of climate warming in the Mackenzie River Valley, Northwest Territories, Canada are estimated using a combination of stochastic modelling, econometric-modelling and input-output analysis. The attempt was to illustrate the utility of using analytical models for long-term impact assessment as well as to estimate the potential impacts from projected climate warming in the region. A scenario approach, based on three global circulation models, was used, with an emphasis on modelling climate variability, river ice conditions and economic impacts. The transportation system was used as a central focus linking the physical and socio-economic components. Despite the significant warming projected for the region, results show the economic impacts from changes in transportation to be relatively minor, with the greatest changes being in the tertiary, or service, sector.     

Walrus (Odobenus rosmarus) predation on adult thick-billed murres (Uria lomvia) at Coats Island, Nunavut, Canada

Although the diet of walrus ( Odobenus rosmarus ) is considered varied, records of walrus consuming marine birds are rare in the published literature. In 2001 and 2002 we observed walrus foraging on adult thick-billed murres ( Uria lomvia ) at Coats Island in Nunavut, Canada. Approximately 46% of the attacks on murres were successful, and as many as 67 murres may have been killed in one day in August 2002. All soft parts of the murres were sucked out, with carcasses of only bones, feathers and skin left floating on the water. The extent to which predation on seabirds by walrus occurs across the eastern Arctic is unknown, but it could represent an important source of mortality for murres at some breeding colonies.     

Examining the aerosol indirect effect over China using an SO2 emission inventory

The relationship between SO₂ emissions and the effective particle radius of low-level water clouds (r_e) over China was investigated to determine anthropogenic effects on clouds. Sulfur dioxide emission values were obtained from a statistical inventory, and r_e origins were retrieved by satellite remote sensing on a 0.5° grid. Comparisons between annual mean SO₂ emissions and r_e showed generally decreasing r_e values, explained by the Twomey effect. The existence of the Twomey effect is supported by comparisons with simulated aerosol optical depths. Results further suggest that clouds over land show sensitivity to the Twomey effect as well as clouds over the ocean.     

Effect of train dynamics on seismic response of steel monorail bridges under moderate ground motion

This study is intended to investigate the seismic response of steel monorail bridges using three‐dimensional dynamic response analysis. We particularly consider monorail bridge–train interaction when subjected to ground motion that occurs with high probability. A monorail train car with two bogies with pneumatic tires for running, steering and stabilizing wheels is assumed to be represented sufficiently by a discrete rigid multi‐body system with 15 degrees of freedom (DOFs). Bridges are considered as an assemblage of beam elements with 6 DOFs at each node. Modal analysis is used for dynamic response analysis under moderate earthquakes. The seismic response of an advanced monorail bridge that adopts a simplified structural system and composite girders is investigated through comparison with seismic responses of a conventional bridge. The acceleration response of a monorail train is also calculated to investigate the effect of structural types of bridges on the train's dynamic response during earthquakes. Results show that the seismic responses of the advanced bridges are greater than those of the conventional monorail bridge because of the simplified structural system and increased girder weight that is attributable to composite girders of the advanced bridge. Moreover, the train on the advanced bridge shows greater dynamic response than that on the conventional bridge. Observations reveal that the dynamic monorail train system acts as a damper on the monorail bridge. That fact shows that the existing design, which considers a train as additional mass, yields a conservative result. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Shaking table tests on a high‐rise RC building model having torsional eccentricity in soft lower storeys

A series of shaking table tests on a 1:12‐scale model using scaled TaftN21E earthquake records were conducted to investigate the seismic performance of a 17‐storey high‐rise reinforced concrete structure with a high degree of torsional eccentricity and soft‐storey irregularities in the bottom two storeys. Based on the analysis of test results, the following conclusions were drawn: (1) the model responded mainly in the coupled mode of translation and torsion or in the torsional mode. Under severe table shaking, the flexible side underwent large inelastic deformation, and the predominant mode of the model changed from the coupled mode to the torsional mode, resulting in greatly increased torsional stiffness, thereby limiting damage in the flexible frame; (2) the shear force and deformation of the flexible side were governed by the torsional behaviour, whereas those of the stiff side were affected mainly by the overturning deformation. The lateral stiffness of the shear wall in the torsional mode was about four times that in the coupled mode because the warping deformation due to torsion counteracted the flexural deformation due to overturning moment in the torsional mode; and (3) the reversed cyclic overturning moments predicted by linear elastic dynamic analysis in the direction transverse to the table excitations contradicted unilateral overturning moments of the serviceability‐level test results, which showed a bias towards tension or compression in the columns. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Abrupt changes in climatic conditions across the late-glacial/Holocene transition on the N. E. Tibet-Qinghai Plateau: evidence from Lake Qinghai, China

A multi-proxy investigation of two sediment cores from the large closed-basin Lake Qinghai provides evidence of abrupt changes in paleolimnological conditions across the late-glacial/Holocene transition. The chronology of the lacustrine sediment sequence is framed by four AMS ¹⁴C ages for aquatic-plant macrofossil seeds. Four distinct stratigraphic units are identified on the basis of abrupt shifts in lithology, carbonate composition, ¹⁸O of authigenic carbonates, magnetic susceptibility characteristics, and total nitrogen content. These units represent four environmental stages that were each initiated by three abrupt changes in hydro-climatic regime at 11,600, 10,700, and 10,000 ¹⁴C yrs B.P. Each of the four environmental stages thus represents a characteristic precipitation-to-evaporation balance for the lake catchment. The paleoenvironmental evidence indicates that the lake before 11,600 ¹⁴C yrs B.P. was very shallow with carbonate production and organic productivity much lower than in the Holocene, suggesting a much colder and drier climate than in the Holocene. From 11,600 to 10,700 ¹⁴C yrs B.P., the presence of clastic laminations and Ruppia fossil seeds suggests an increased inflow of sediment-laden waters into the lake. Between 10,700 and 10,000 ¹⁴C yrs B.P., the development of a carbonate playa lake indicates that a negative water balance persisted. From 10,000 ¹⁴C yrs B.P. an abrupt increase in rainfall is suggested by a sudden termination of the playa lake environment and the diluted lake waters, as evidenced by negative shift in both total carbonate content and ¹⁸O values of mineral carbonate. However, the lake level during the early Holocene was about 20 m shallower than today, indicating that the effective moisture then was much lower than it is today. The multi-proxy record suggests a step-wise pattern of climatic change across the late-glacial/Holocene transition along with abrupt shifts in P-E balance on the N. E. Tibet-Qinghai Plateau. This pattern is characterized by reorganization of Asian monsoon circulation, which probably was determined by increasing summer insolation and changes in surface boundary conditions accompanying regional deglaciation. The arid event at 10,700–10,000 ¹⁴C yrs B.P. is interpreted as a Younger Dryas equivalent, although climatic cooling is not indicated by the evidence at hand.