How robust are global conservation priorities to climate change?

International conservation organisations have identified priority areas for biodiversity conservation. These global-scale prioritisations affect the distribution of funds for conservation interventions. As each organisation has a different focus, each prioritisation scheme is determined by different decision criteria and the resultant priority areas vary considerably. However, little is known about how the priority areas will respond to the impacts of climate change. In this paper, we examined the robustness of eight global-scale prioritisations to climate change under various climate predictions from seven global circulation models. We developed a novel metric of the climate stability for 803 ecoregions based on a recently introduced method to estimate the overlap of climate envelopes. The relationships between the decision criteria and the robustness of the global prioritisation schemes were statistically examined. We found that decision criteria related to level of endemism and landscape fragmentation were strongly correlated with areas predicted to be robust to a changing climate. Hence, policies that prioritise intact areas due to the likely cost efficiency, and assumptions related to the potential to mitigate the impacts of climate change, require further examination. Our findings will help determine where additional management is required to enable biodiversity to adapt to the impacts of climate change.     

Long term trends of Hg uptake in resident fish from a polluted estuary

Mercury contamination of fish is dependent upon a system’s ability to transform inorganic Hg into biologically available forms; however, fish biometrics also play an important role. To assess long term trends in Hg concentrations in sand flathead (Platycephalus bassensis) a polynomial model, corrected for fish length, was used to evaluate temporal trends and spatial variability, while growth rates were estimated using the Von Bertalanffy length-at-age model. Hg concentrations showed no decrease over time, and generally remained near recommended consumption levels (0.5 mg kg⁻¹). Previously reported spatial differences in Hg concentrations were not supported by the data once the models were corrected for fish length. Growth rate variation accounted for a large part of the previously published spatial differences. These results suggest that inclusion of fish biometrics is necessary to facilitate an accurate interpretation of spatial and temporal trends of contaminant concentrations in long term estuarine and marine monitoring programs.     

A Genetic Algorithm Variational Approach to Data Assimilation and Application to Volcanic Emissions

Variational data assimilation methods optimize the match between an observed and a predicted field. These methods normally require information on error variances of both the analysis and the observations, which are sometimes difficult to obtain for transport and dispersion problems. Here, the variational problem is set up as a minimization problem that directly minimizes the root mean squared error of the difference between the observations and the prediction. In the context of atmospheric transport and dispersion, the solution of this optimization problem requires a robust technique. A genetic algorithm (GA) is used here for that solution, forming the GA-Variational (GA-Var) technique. The philosophy and formulation of the technique is described here. An advantage of the technique includes that it does not require observation or analysis error covariances nor information about any variables that are not directly assimilated. It can be employed in the context of either a forward assimilation problem or used to retrieve unknown source or meteorological information by solving the inverse problem. The details of the method are reviewed. As an example application, GA-Var is demonstrated for predicting the plume from a volcanic eruption. First the technique is employed to retrieve the unknown emission rate and the steering winds of the volcanic plume. Then that information is assimilated into a forward prediction of its transport and dispersion. Concentration data are derived from satellite data to determine the observed ash concentrations. A case study is made of the March 2009 eruption of Mount Redoubt in Alaska. The GA-Var technique is able to determine a wind speed and direction that matches the observations well and a reasonable emission rate.     

Induced seismicity in potash mining — a finite element study

Summary A number of earthquakes have been recorded in strata above underground potash mines in Saskatchewan, Canada. These seismic events are widely understood to be generated in the carbonate Dawson Bay Formation and, possibly, other superincumbent beds, and are believed to be directly related to mining operations. The mechanical response of these higher strata to mining is not observable andin situ instrumentation for measuring post-mining stresses and strains in the carbonate beds is sparse. Numerical models are believed to be the most effective option for investigating the response of these higher strata to potash mining. In this regard a realistic finite element model based on elasto-plastic material behaviour is developed in this paper. Special capabilities added to this general elasto-plastic model permit simulation of the post-failure behaviour of the rock mass. Possible modes of failure in the Dawson Bay are investigated and the brittle failure of intact limestone is affirmed as the possible mode of failure producing major seismicity. Slip along existing discontinuities in overlying strata is also demonstrated to be another possible mechanism, though with lower energy levels.     

Ultimate collapse of cross-jointed,thinly bedded,horizontal roof strata

Summary Small scale physical model studies of the collapse of mine roofs excavated in horizontally bedded strata containing uniformly spaced, rough, vertical cross-joints revealed a new type of failure mechanism, of which the classic Voussoir arch is shown to be a special case. The mechanism involves vertical displacement of a central section about two peripheral hinges. Hence, the author has called it the 2-hinge collapse mechanism.A numerical model of the mechanism was developed, which allows for progressive rock failure at the hinge points and for external loadings across the roof span. Results from this analysis show that the collapse mechanism is very sensitive to bed thickness and rock strength. Failure by this mode is more likely to develop in weak, thinly laminated beds with low horizontal stresses.It is deduced from this investigation that, in a geological environment where this type of failure is likely, bolts installed close to the sides (ribs) of openings should have high shear stiffness, for example full column, resin bolts. Bolts in the central region, where vertical movement predominates, need adequate pull-out resistance and, if some corrosion protection is necessary, may be grouted with a less expensive cement or plaster-based grout.     

Optimizing the reinforcement effect of full-column,untensioned, grouted bolts in bedded mine roofs

Summary The benefits of installing full-column, untensioned, grouted bolts in bedded mine roofs generally include a greater pull-out strength than mechanical, point anchor bolts, a greater axial stiffness, and a greater shear stiffness. The latter characteristic (dowel effect) is helpful in reducing shear slip along planes of separation in the roof and hence roof sag or convergence.This paper reports on analytical and model studies undertaken to determine if there is a positioning of grouted bolts across the span of the opening for which the dowel effect reaches a maximum or optimum value. A variety of loading cases is examined, including uniform and parabolic loading of roof beams resting on rigid or deformable abutments, and it is shown that there should be a greater density of bolts towards the ribs or sides of openings. The precise locations of the bolts for optimizing reinforcement are also shown to depend upon roof span, abutment thickness, elastic moduli of roof and abutment, and beam thickness.     

Estimating the degree of reinforcement of horizontally bedded roofs strengthened by non-tensioned,full-column grouted bolts

Summary Roof sag or convergence during mining of horizontally bedded strata is accompanied by relative shear displacements along the separation planes. These displacements and therefore the roof convergence can be reduced by mobilizing the shear stiffness and resistance of full-column, non-tensioned bolts installed across the layers. Ultimately, if sufficient bolts are installed, there would be a negligible difference between the deflection of the bolted layers and that of a single layer of the same total thickness.In this paper a limiting equilibrium method is presented for determining the degree to which ideal reinforcement is reached.A number of examples are used to illustrate the use of the method for estimating the degree of reinforcement of a given rock bolt pattern, or for determining the bolt pattern required to attain a required degree of reinforcement. Both uniform and non-uniform loadings of the roof strata are considered.     

Effects of Grain Size on the Initiation and Propagation Thresholds of Stress-induced Brittle Fractures

Summary The microstructure of rock is known to influence its strength and deformation characteristics. This paper presents the results of a laboratory investigation into the effects of grain size on the initiation and propagation thresholds of stress-induced brittle fracturing in crystalline rocks with similar mineralogical compositions, but with three different grain sizes. Strain gauge and acoustic emission measurements were used to aid in the identification and characterization of the different stages of crack development in uniaxial compression. Results indicate that grain size had only a minor effect on the stress at which new cracks initiated. Crack initiation thresholds were found to be more dependent on the strength of the constituent minerals. Grain size did have a significant effect, however, in controlling the behaviour of the cracks once they began to propagate. The evidence suggests that longer grain boundaries and larger intergranular cracks, resulting from increased grain size, provide longer paths of weakness for growing cracks to propagate along. This promoted degradation of material strength once the longer cracks began to coalesce and interact. Thus, rock strength was found to decrease with increasing grain size, not by inducing crack initiation at lower stresses, but through a process where longer cracks propagating along longer planes of weakness coalesced at lower stresses.     

Uncertainty in streamflow rating curves: methods,controls and consequences

Discharge time series' are one of the core data sets used in hydrological investigations. Errors in the data mainly occur through uncertainty in gauging (measurement uncertainty) and uncertainty in determination of the stage–discharge relationship (rating curve uncertainty). Thirty‐six flow gauges from the Namoi River catchment, Australia, were examined to explore how rating curve uncertainty affects gauge reliability and uncertainty of observed flow records. The analysis focused on the deviations in gaugings from the rating curves because standard (statistical) uncertainty methods could not be applied. Deviations of greater/lesser than 10% were considered significant to allow for a measurement uncertainty threshold of 10%, determined from quality coding of gaugings and operational procedures. The deviations in gaugings were compared against various factors to examine trends and identify major controls, including stage height, date, month, rating table, gauging frequency and quality, catchment area and type of control. The analysis gave important insights into data quality and the reliability of each gauge, which had previously not been recognized. These included identification of more/less reliable periods of record, which varied widely between gauges, and identification of more/less reliable parts of the hydrograph. Most gauges showed significant deviations at low stages, affecting the determination of low flows. This was independent of the type of gauge control, with many gauges experiencing problems in the stability of the rating curve, likely as a result of sediment flux. The deviations in gaugings also have widespread application in modelling, for example, informing suitable calibration periods and defining error distributions. This paper demonstrates the value and importance of undertaking qualitative analyses of observed records. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Roof deflections and sag in jointed,horizontally bedded strata — A numerical study

Conclusions A nonlinear finite element model with discrete joint modelling capability is developed. A semi-empirical equation introduced for determining the maximum deflections of clamped and vertically jointed roof beam is verified using a nonlinear finite element model. The mechanism of stability is also investigated numerically and concluded that the formation of Voussoir arch (Parobolic compressive zone) plays a major role in the overall stability of beam roofs over underground openings. Approximate linear equations are obtained for three joint spacings of 800, 400 and 200 mm, relating the maximum deflection of the beam and joint width for a given joint spacing.