Space—time correlations between inland earthquakes in central Japan and great offshore earthquakes along the Nankai trough: Implication for destructive earthquake prediction

Based on the tectonic framework of central Japan, including the surrounding submarine areas, the space-time relationship between destructive inland earthquakes of magnitudesM 6.4 or greater and great offshore earthquakes along the Nankai trough was examined. From east to west, four tectonic lines are defined as lines linking active faults: the Itoigawa-Shizuoka tectonic line (ISTL), the Tsurugawan-Isewan tectonic line (TITL), the Hanaore-Kongo fault line (HKFL), and the Arima-Takatsuki tectonic line (ATTL). The TITL divides central Japan into the Chubu and Kinki districts, and probably extends southward to the Nankai trough. The Chubu district is subdivided into four blocks by boundary lines linking NW-SE trending active faults having left-lateral strike slip. In the Kinki district, N-S trending, active reverse, steep-dip faults are dominant in the triangular region north of the Median Tectonic line, between the TITL and HKFL, forming a basin-and-range province.

Starting from 1586 A.D., a seismic space-time sequence of high seismic activity in the Chubu district in which earthquake occurrence migrates from the eastern to western tectonic lines of central Japan was identified. The sequence also revealed that inland earthquakes preceded great offshore earthquakes which occurred along the Nankai trough. It was also found that a destructive earthquake tends to occur on the HKFL within 30 years after the occurrence on the TITL, and that the western Nankai trough generated great earthquakes ofM≥7.0 at intervals ranging from 8 to 49 years after the HKFL earthquakes. If the eastern Nankai trough is coupled with the western Nankai trough, a forthcoming greater earthquake measuringM 8.5 may be expected. Since such great earthquakes are always accompanied by large tsunamis, much attention should be focussed on possible tsunami disasters along the Pacific coast of central Japan.

Based on its tectonic structure, a tectonic model of central Japan is proposed. The seismic space-time sequence, which attempts to explain the cause of the sequential earthquake generation, is also discussed.     

Three-Dimensional Interpolation and Lithofacies Analysis of Granular Composition Data for Earthquake-Engineering Characterization of Shallow Soil

In Japan, many major cities are located on tectonic basins which are surrounded by faults and underlain by soft alluvial materials. Because these areas are subject to earthquake damages, it is important to determine their seismic engineering characteristics. Geotechnical databases which contain many borehole logs are useful information sources for this type of analysis. Each datum stored in the database has a value or an attribute, and its location is irregular in both horizontal and vertical directions. A new interpolation method based on the optimization principle is proposed here to deal with such three-dimensionally distributed data. Susceptibility of unconsolidated ground to liquefaction is known to be related to the content of loose and saturated sand. The mixture ratio of several soil types in a deposit, i.e., granular composition, is strongly influenced by the sedimentary environment. There are two numerical methods: the optimization principle method (OPM) used to determine three-dimensional distribution of granular composition and the model used to evaluate liquefaction. The application of the proposed methods to two locations in Japan indicated that the zones with high susceptibility to liquefaction were indeed those that had suffered from liquefaction during past earthquakes.     

Snow ripples and their contribution to the mass transport in drifting snow

Morphological characteristics of snow ripples formed by drifting snow were investigated as functions of wind velocity in a cold wind tunnel at -15 °C. Wave-length, wave height and migration rate of snow ripples increased from 5 to 20 cm, 3 to 5 mm and 1 to 8 cm/min, respectively, with increasing wind velocity from 5 to 7 m/s. Measured size distributions of snow particles in snow ripples showed sorting of large particles in ridges, suggesting that the snow ripple migration is caused by creeping of large particles. The snow drift rate caused by creep, that is, by the ripple migration, was estimated to amount, at least, to 6% of the total snow drift rate.     

Precise estimation of pressure–temperature paths from zoned minerals using Markov random field modeling: theory and synthetic inversion

The chemical zoning profile in metamorphic minerals is often used to deduce the pressure–temperature (P–T) history of rock. However, it remains difficult to restore detailed paths from zoned minerals because thermobarometric evaluation of metamorphic conditions involves several uncertainties, including measurement errors and geological noise. We propose a new stochastic framework for estimating precise P–T paths from a chemical zoning structure using the Markov random field (MRF) model, which is a type of Bayesian stochastic method that is often applied to image analysis. The continuity of pressure and temperature during mineral growth is incorporated by Gaussian Markov chains as prior probabilities in order to apply the MRF model to the P–T path inversion. The most probable P–T path can be obtained by maximizing the posterior probability of the sequential set of P and T given the observed compositions of zoned minerals. Synthetic P–T inversion tests were conducted in order to investigate the effectiveness and validity of the proposed model from zoned Mg–Fe–Ca garnet in the divariant KNCFMASH system. In the present study, the steepest descent method was implemented in order to maximize the posterior probability using the Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. The proposed method successfully reproduced the detailed shape of the synthetic P–T path by eliminating appropriately the statistical compositional noises without operator’s subjectivity and prior knowledge. It was also used to simultaneously evaluate the uncertainty of pressure, temperature, and mineral compositions for all measurement points. The MRF method may have potential to deal with several geological uncertainties, which cause cumbersome systematic errors, by its Bayesian approach and flexible formalism, so that it comprises potentially powerful tools for various inverse problems in petrology.     

Use of tsunami waveforms for earthquake source study

Tsunami waveforms recorded on tide gauges, like seismic waves recorded on seismograms, can be used to study earthquake source processes. The tsunami propagation can be accurately evaluated, since bathymetry is much better known than seismic velocity structure in the Earth. Using waveform inversion techniques, we can estimate the spatial distribution of coseismic slip on the fault plane from tsunami waveforms. This method has been applied to several earthquakes around Japan. Two recent earthquakes, the 1968 Tokachi-oki and 1983 Japan Sea earthquakes, are examined for calibration purposes. Both events show nonuniform slip distributions very similar to those obtained from seismic wave analyses. The use of tsunami waveforms is more useful for the study of unusual or old earthquakes. The 1984 Torishima earthquake caused unusually large tsunamis for its earthquake size. Waveform modeling of this event shows that part of the abnormal size of this tsunami is due to the propagation effect along the shallow ridge system. For old earthquakes, many tide gauge records exist with quality comparable to modern records, while there are only a few good quality seismic records. The 1944 Tonankai and 1946 Nankaido earthquakes are examined as examples of old events, and slip distributions are obtained. Such estimates are possible only using tsunami records. Since tide-gauge records are available as far back as the 1850s, use of them will provide unique and important information on long-term global seismicity.     

Mg-Fe partitioning between olivine and ultramafic melts at high pressures

Precise determination of the partitioning of Mg and Fe²⁺ between olivine and ultramafic melt has been made at pressures from 5 to 13 GPa using a MA-8 type multi-anvil high-pressure apparatus (PREM) installed at Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo. A very short rhenium capsule (<100 μm sample thickness) was adopted to minimize temperature variation within the sample container. Synthetic gels with the composition of the upper mantle peridotite were used as starting materials to promote the homogeneity. Analyses of quenched melts and coexisting olivines were made with an electron probe microanalyzer. The obtained partition coefficient, K_D [=(FeO/MgO)^ol/(FeO/MgO)^melt], decreases from 0.35 to 0.25 with increasing pressure from 5 to 13 GPa, suggesting a negative correlation between pressure and K_D above 5 GPa. Our result is consistent with a parabolic relationship between K_D and degree of polymerization (NBO/T) of melts reported by previous studies at lower pressures. The negative correlation between pressure and K_D suggests that olivine crystallizing in a magma ocean becomes more Mg-rich with depth and that primary magmas generated in the upper mantle become more Fe-rich with depth than previously estimated.