Potential Salinity and Temperature Futures for the Chesapeake Bay Using a Statistical Downscaling Spatial Disaggregation Framework

Estuaries are productive and ecologically important ecosystems, incorporating environmental drivers from watersheds, rivers, and the coastal ocean. Climate change has potential to modify the physical properties of estuaries, with impacts on resident organisms. However, projections from general circulation models (GCMs) are generally too coarse to resolve important estuarine processes. Here, we statistically downscaled near-surface air temperature and precipitation projections to the scale of the Chesapeake Bay watershed and estuary. These variables were linked to Susquehanna River streamflow using a water balance model and finally to spatially resolved Chesapeake Bay surface temperature and salinity using statistical model trees. The low computational cost of this approach allowed rapid assessment of projected changes from four GCMs spanning a range of potential futures under a high CO₂ emission scenario, for four different downscaling methods. Choice of GCM contributed strongly to the spread in projections, but choice of downscaling method was also influential in the warmest models. Models projected a ~2–5.5 °C increase in surface water temperatures in the Chesapeake Bay by the end of the century. Projections of salinity were more uncertain and spatially complex. Models showing increases in winter-spring streamflow generated freshening in the Upper Bay and tributaries, while models with decreased streamflow produced salinity increases. Changes to the Chesapeake Bay environment have implications for fish and invertebrate habitats, as well as migration, spawning phenology, recruitment, and occurrence of pathogens. Our results underline a potentially expanded role of statistical downscaling to complement dynamical approaches in assessing climate change impacts in dynamically challenging estuaries.     

Keck II spectroscopy of mHz quasi-periodic oscillations in Hercules X-1

We present Keck II spectroscopy of optical mHz quasi-periodic oscillations (QPOs) in the light curve of the X-ray pulsar binary Hercules X-1. In the power spectrum it appears as 'peaked noise', with a coherency ∼2, a central frequency of 35 mHz and a peak-to-peak amplitude of 5 per cent. However, the dynamic power spectrum shows it to be an intermittent QPO, with a lifetime of ∼100 s, as expected if the lifetime of the orbiting material is equal to the thermal time-scale of the inner disc. We have decomposed the spectral time series into constant and variable components and used blackbody fits to the resulting spectra to characterize the spectrum of the QPO variability and constrain possible production sites. We find that the spectrum of the QPO is best fitted by a small hot region, possibly the inner regions of the accretion disc, where the ballistic accretion stream impacts on to the disc. The lack of any excess power around the QPO frequency in the X-ray power spectrum, created using simultaneous light curves from RXTE , implies that the QPO is not simply reprocessed X-ray variability.     

Aerial electromagnetic sounding of the lithosphere of Venus

Electromagnetic (EM) investigation depths are larger on Venus than Earth due to the dearth of water in rocks, in spite of higher temperatures. Whistlers detected by Venus Express proved that lightning is present, so the Schumann resonances ～10–40 Hz may provide a global source of electromagnetic energy that penetrates ～10–100 km. Electrical conductivity will be sensitive at these depths to temperature structure and hence thermal lithospheric thickness. Using 1D analytic and 2D numerical models, we demonstrate that the Schumann resonances—transverse EM waves in the ground-ionosphere waveguide—remain sensitive at all altitudes to the properties of the boundaries. This is in marked contrast to other EM methods in which sensitivity to the ground falls off sharply with altitude. We develop a 1D analytical model for aerial EM sounding that treats the electrical properties of the subsurface (thermal gradient, water content, and presence of conductive crust) and ionosphere, and the effects of both random errors and biases that can influence the measurements. We initially consider specified 1D lithospheric thicknesses 100–500 km, but we turn to 2D convection models with Newtonian temperature-dependent viscosity to provide representative vertical and lateral temperature variations. We invert for the conductivity-depth structure and then temperature gradient. For a dry Venus, we find that the error on temperature gradient obtained from any single local measurement is ～100%—perhaps enough to distinguish “thick” vs. “thin” lithospheres. When averaging over thousands of kilometers, however, the standard deviation of the recovered thermal gradient is within the natural variability of the convection models, <25%. A “wet” interior (hundreds of ppm H₂O) limits EM sounding depths using the Schumann resonances to <20 km, and errors are too large to estimate lithospheric properties. A 30-km conductive crust has little influence on the dry-interior models because the Schumann penetration depths are significantly larger. We conclude that EM sounding of the interior of Venus is feasible from a 55-km high balloon. Lithospheric thickness can be measured if the upper-mantle water content is low. If H₂O at hundreds of ppm is present, the deeper, temperature-sensitive structure is screened, but the “wet” nature of the upper mantle, as well as structure of the upper crust, is revealed.     

A requiem for the IFQ in US fisheries?

Despite their apparent economic benefits to harvesters, individual fishing quotas (IFQs) have only been adopted in three US fisheries: Mid-Atlantic surf clam and ocean quahog; South Atlantic wreckfish; and, North Pacific halibut and sablefish. During the 1996 reauthorization of the Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act, Congress temporarily blocked implementation of additional IFQ programs in US fisheries. In this paper, we argue that because of the emergence of an alternative, the cooperative, it is unlikely that new IFQs will be adopted in federally managed US fisheries. From an economic perspective, cooperatives offer the advantage of eliminating production externalities that may remain under an IFQ program with relatively large owner classes. More significantly, development of IFQ programs appears to be increasingly overwhelmed by the proliferation of both equity concerns and seemingly interminable rent-seeking behavior — both issues that can effectively block adoption of IFQs. Ironically (and paradoxically?), by reducing the scope of the equity issues acknowledged, the cooperative alternative narrows the pool of claimants and modifies the behavior of the remainder, making implementation more likely. A further irony exists in that IFQs are widely thought to be best designed at the local/regional level while part of the appeal of the cooperative model is that it appears to shortcut the often protracted nature of the local/regional political process by relying on direct intervention from Washington, DC, in the form of actions by Congress or the Justice Department.     

Impact of climate warming on upper layer of the Bering Sea

The impact of climate warming on the upper layer of the Bering Sea is investigated by using a high-resolution coupled global climate model. The model is forced by increasing atmospheric CO₂ at a rate of 1% per year until CO₂ reaches double its initial value (after 70 years), after which it is held constant. In response to this forcing, the upper layer of the Bering Sea warms by about 2°C in the southeastern shelf and by a little more than 1°C in the western basin. The wintertime ventilation to the permanent thermocline weakens in the western Bering Sea. After CO₂ doubling, the southeastern shelf of the Bering Sea becomes almost ice-free in March, and the stratification of the upper layer strengthens in May and June. Changes of physical condition due to the climate warming would impact the pre-condition of spring bio-productivity in the southeastern shelf.     

Reply to Discussion of “Perceptual models of uncertainty for socio-hydrological systems: a flood risk change example”*

ABSTRACT

Ertsen discusses the representation of reality and uncertainty in our paper, raising three critical points. In response to the first, we agree that discussion of different interpretations of the concept of uncertainty is important when developing perceptual models – making different uncertainty interpretations explicit was a key motivation behind our method. Secondly, we do not, as Ertsen suggests, deny anyone who is not a “certified” scientist to have relevant knowledge. The elicitation of diverse views by discussing perceptual models is a basis for open discussion and decision making. Thirdly, Ertsen suggests that it is not useful to treat socio-hydrological systems as if they exist. We argue that we act as “pragmatic realists” in most practical applications by treating socio-hydrological systems as an external reality that can be known. But the uncertainty that arises from our knowledge limitations needs to be recognized, as it may impact on practical decision making and associated costs.     

A discrete particle representation of hillslope hydrology: hypothesis testing in reproducing a tracer experiment at Gårdsjön,Sweden

Despite the long history of the continuum equation approach in hydrology, it is not a necessary approach to the formulation of a physically based representation of hillslope hydrology. The Multiple Interacting Pathways (MIPs) model is a discrete realization that allows hillslope response and transport to be simultaneously explored in a way that reflects the potential occurrence of preferential flows and lengths of pathways. The MIPs model uses random particle tracking methods to represent the flow of water within the subsurface alongside velocity distributions that acknowledge preferential flows and transition probability matrices, which control flow pathways. An initial realization of this model is presented here in application to a tracer experiment carried out in Gårdsjön, Sweden. The model is used as an exploratory tool, testing several hypotheses in relation to this experiment. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Tomography: A window on the role of sulfur in the structure of micrometeorites

Abstract– To determine the role played by sulfides in the formation of vesicles and FeNi metal beads, we mapped the locations and tabulated the numbers of sulfides, metal beads, and vesicles in 1583 sectioned micrometeorites (MMs) using conventional microscopy and in 190 whole MMs using synchrotron computed microtomography (SCMT). Both the section and the SCMT images show that sulfides melt, coalesce, and migrate to the MMs surface. The decomposition of sulfides may occur during all these stages. Given the sulfide morphologies and compositions that we see in section, we think the breakdown of Ni sulfides produces the FeNi beads. The SCMT images show that metal beads are common in melted MMs, >50% have them. Vesicles in porphyritic and scoriaceous MMs are also probably formed as sulfides decompose. Not only do sulfides abut the vesicles but also the temperatures at which sulfides decompose overlap those at which MM surfaces first melt and temporarily seal, suggesting that S gases could produce most of these vesicles. As the vesicle shapes and patterns of distribution differ among MM classes, tomography can be used to nondestructively screen for specific types of MMs. Tomography is a powerful tool for visualizing the three‐dimensional distribution of metal beads, sulfides, mean densities, and vesicles in MMs.     

Toxicity in benthic freshwater cyanobacteria (blue‐green algae): First observations in New Zealand

Toxic cyanobacteria have been linked to dog deaths in the Waikanae River (1998) and Mataura River (1999 and 2000), New Zealand. These were Oscillatoria‐like species which formed benthic mats. This is the first time in New Zealand that animal deaths have been linked to toxins from benthic cyanobacteria.