Thermal Monitoring of Natural Source Zone Depletion

Natural depletion of subsurface petroleum liquids releases energy in the form of heat. The rate of natural source zone depletion (NSZD) can be derived from subsurface temperature data. An energy balance is performed to resolve NSZD‐generated energy in terms of W/m². Biodegradation rates are resolved by dividing the NSZD energy by the heat of reaction in joules/mol. Required temperature data are collected using data loggers, wireless connections, and automated data storage and analysis. Continuous thermal resolution of monthly NSZD rates at a field site indicates that apparent monthly NSZD rates vary through time, ranging from 10,000 to 77,000 L/ha/year. Temporal variations in observed apparent NSZD rates are attributed to processes governing the conversion of CH₄ to CO₂, as opposed to the actual rates of NSZD. Given a year or more of continuous NSZD rate data, it is anticipated that positive and negative biases in apparent NSZD rates will average out, and averaged apparent NSZD rates will converge to true NSZD rates. An 8.4% difference between average apparent NSZD rates over a 31‐month period using the thermal monitoring method and seven rounds of CO₂ efflux measurements using CO₂ traps supports the validity of both CO₂ trap and thermal monitoring methods. A promising aspect of thermal monitoring methods is that continuous data provide a rigorous approach to resolving the true mean NSZD rates as compared to temporally sparse CO₂ trap NSZD rate measurements. Overall, a vision is advanced of real‐time sensor‐based groundwater monitoring that can provide better data at lower costs and with greater safety, security, and sustainability.     

Perceptual models of uncertainty for socio-hydrological systems: a flood risk change example

Characterizing, understanding and better estimating uncertainties are key concerns for drawing robust conclusions when analyzing changing socio-hydrological systems. Here we suggest developing a perceptual model of uncertainty that is complementary to the perceptual model of the socio-hydrological system and we provide an example application to flood risk change analysis. Such a perceptual model aims to make all relevant uncertainty sources – and different perceptions thereof – explicit in a structured way. It is a first step to assessing uncertainty in system outcomes that can help to prioritize research efforts and to structure dialogue and communication about uncertainty in interdisciplinary work.     

Late Middle Pleistocene deposits at Norton Farm on the West Sussex coastal plain,southern England

The coastal plain of West Sussex, southern England, is internationally important because of the sequence of discrete high‐sea‐level events preserved at various elevations across it. New evidence is presented from a site at Norton Farm, near Chichester, on the Lower Coastal Plain, where Pleistocene marine sands, fining upwards into silts, occur between 5.3 m and 9.1 m OD. The sequence reflects a regressive tendency at the transition from an interglacial to a cold stage. The marine sands have yielded foraminifera, ostracods and molluscs that indicate a declining marine influence through the sequence, culminating in a tidal mudflat, strongly weathered in places. Cool‐climate foraminifera (including Elphidium clavatum, Cassidulina reniformis and Elphidium albiumbilicatum) and ostracods have been recovered from the marine sands. Some species with an apparent preference for warmer water conditions, however, are also present. Freshwater taxa washed into the terminal marine sediments include some cold climate indicators, such as Pisidium stewarti and P. obtusale lapponicum. Additional evidence for cool climatic conditions during the deposition of the upper part of the marine sequence is provided by the lack of tree taxa in the pollen record and by features of the micromorphology. The marine sediments probably began accumulating during OIS 7, a conclusion based on their elevation, on amino acid ratios from shells, but especially on vertebrate evidence, particularly the presence of a small form of horse, together with a large, distinctive, form of northern vole (Microtus oeconomus). The occurrence of cool climate indicators in these marine sediments may demonstrate a lag between the climatic deterioration and the expected glacio‐eustatic fall in relative sea‐level. This evidence appears to support the conclusions drawn from the study of coral terraces in Barbados. Such a scenario would provide the conditions necessary for the emplacement of the large erratic boulders reported from the Lower Coastal Plain of West Sussex. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sensitivity of bed shear stress estimated from vertical velocity profiles: the problem of sampling resolution

Bed shear stress in open channel flows is often estimated from the logarithmic vertical velocity profile. However, most measuring devices used in the field do not allow for flow velocity to be measured very close to the bed. The lack of near-bed measurements is a critical loss of information which may affect bed shear stress estimates. Detailed velocity profiles obtained from a field acoustic Doppler velocimeter over three different bed roughnesses clearly show that the inclusion of near-bed points is critical for the estimation of bed shear stress in a shallow river environment. Moreover, the results indicate that using the full flow depth instead of the bottom 20 per cent of the profile generates an underestimation of the shear stress when flow is uniform. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Reply: denudation rates in southeast Northumberland since the Devensian glaciation

Undoubtedly the coastal till plateau of Northumberland was deeply incised by rivers crossing from the ice-covered uplands inland, and no doubt locally modified by subglacial drainage before the ice wasted back. Two approaches were used to allow for this in the measurement of the contribution of postglacial subaerial erosion to the shape of the contemporary landscape, and thus in the calculation of mean rates of erosion. If, despite these adjustments, the average depth of erosion has been overestimated, the error can be little more than 15 per cent. Copyright © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Contrasting Pliocene fluvial depositional systems within the rapidly subsiding South Caspian Basin; a case study of the palaeo-Volga and palaeo-Kura river systems in the Surakhany Suite,Upper Productive Series,onshore Azerbaijan

The South Caspian Basin contains major hydrocarbon reservoirs within the largely Early Pliocene Productive Series. This paper describes and contrasts outcrops of the uppermost ∼500 m of the series (the Surakhany Suite) deposited by two of the main fluvial systems that supplied the Azeri margin of the basin. Sedimentary facies and, for the first time from the Productive Series, palynological analyses document fluvial channel belt complexes, sheetflood overbank and flood plain to flood plain lake environments. The Productive Series on the Apsheron Peninsula, Azerbaijan, was supplied predominantly from the north by the palaeo-Volga river system. It displays an overall fining-upward trend, such that the Surakhany Suite at Lokbatan is dominated by mudstone. Siltstone and coarser-grained sediments make up 28% of the section. Channel bodies are on average 1.5 m thick and form 13% of the succession. In the sub-surface of the Apsheron Peninsula, ratty wireline log responses also indicate that siltstone and sandstone bodies are predominantly thin bedded, with SP-derived net-to-gross sand ratios of ∼0.35–0.40. The succession in the Kura Basin was sourced predominantly from the west by the palaeo-Kura river system. It displays a coarsening-upward trend, such that in the middle and upper Surakhany Suite at Babazanan siltstone and coarser sediments make up 52% of the section. It is characterised by numerous stacked and laterally continuous channel sandstone bodies that are on average 5.8 m thick and comprise 42% of the outcrop. In the sub-surface of the Kura Basin, wireline log responses of the Surakhany Suite have a blocky character and indicate SP-derived net-to-gross sand ratios of 0.26–0.38. These values are similar to calculated sandstone volumes at outcrop (44%). The palynological data, including multivariate analyses, show that the main controls on palynomorph distribution are the degree of fluvial or lacustrine influence, subaerial exposure and salinity. Despite their more lithic nature, Surakhany Suite sandstones derived from the palaeo-Kura river system along the Kurovdag-Babazanan-Neftchala trend have similar or better petrophysical properties than those derived from the palaeo-Volga river on the Apsheron Peninsula and its offshore continuation. This is probably due to their coarser-grain size. This, combined with their greater sandstone body thickness, would suggest that the axis of the Kura Basin forms the most promising part of the Azeri sector of the South Caspian Basin for exploration within the uppermost part of the Productive Series.