Observed adaptation to climate change: UK evidence of transition to a well-adapting society

This paper investigates whether and to what extent a wide range of actors in the UK are adapting to climate change, and whether this is evidence of a social transition. We document evidence of over 300 examples of early adopters of adaptation practice to climate change in the UK. These examples span a range of activities from small adjustments (or coping), to building adaptive capacity, to implementing actions and to creating deeper systemic change in public and private organisations in a range of sectors. We find that adaptation in the UK has been dominated by government initiatives and has principally occurred in the form of research into climate change impacts. These government initiatives have stimulated a further set of actions at other scales in public agencies, regulatory agencies and regional government (and the devolved administrations), though with little real evidence of climate change adaptation initiatives trickling down to local government level. The sectors requiring significant investment in large scale infrastructure have invested more heavily than those that do not in identifying potential impacts and adaptations. Thus we find a higher level of adaptation activity by the water supply and flood defence sectors. Sectors that are not dependent on large scale infrastructure appear to be investing far less effort and resources in preparing for climate change. We conclude that the UK government-driven top-down targeted adaptation approach has generated anticipatory action at low cost in some areas. We also conclude that these actions may have created enough niche activities to allow for diffusion of new adaptation practices in response to real or perceived climate change. These results have significant implications for how climate policy can be developed to support autonomous adaptors in the UK and other countries.     

Velocity structure and properties of the lunar crust

Lunar seismic data from three Apollo seismometers are interpreted to determine the structure of the Moon's interior to a depth of about 100 km. The travel times and amplitudes ofP arrivals from Saturn IV B and LM impacts are interpreted in terms of a compressional velocity profile. The most outstanding feature of the model is that, in the Fra Mauro region of Oceanus Procellarum, the Moon has a 65 km thick layered crust. Other features of the model are: (i) rapid increase of velocity near the surface due to pressure effects on dry rocks, (ii) a discontinuity at a depth of about 25 km, (iii) near constant velocity (6.8 km/s) between 25 and 65 km deep, (iv) a major discontinuity at 65 km marking the base of the lunar crust, and (v) very high velocity (about 9 km/s) in the lunar mantle below the crust. Velocities in the upper layer of the crust match those of lunar basalts while those in the lower layer fall in the range of terrestrial gabbroic and anorthositic rocks.Lamant-Doherty Geological Observatory Contribution No. 1768.     

The relative impacts of spills of two alternative fuels on the microalgae of a sandy site: a microcosm study

Electric power generation in the United States uses substantial amounts of fuel oil #6. Orimulsion, an emulsion of bitumen, water, and a surfactant, is an alternative. A portion of the information that managers need to compare the two fuels is their relative environmental impacts. Both fuels are shipped by sea, so the impact of spills on the marine benthos is a concern. We used microcosms to assess the relative impacts of simulated spills of these fuels on the microalgae of shallow subtidal sandy bottoms. Response variables included microalgal abundance, primary productivity, ratio of chlorophyll a to phaeophytin, and ratio of primary production to chlorophyll a. During our 88-day experiment, we found no significant differences between the fuels for any variable. We suggest that weathering before the spill reaches the shore removes the most toxic components, rendering the fuels essentially equal in their impact on benthic microalgae.     

A preliminary study of PGE in the Late Caledonian Loch Borralan and Loch Ailsh alkaline pyroxenite-syenite complexes,north-west Scotland

The Siluro-Ordovician Loch Borralan (c. 430 Ma) and Loch Ailsh Complexes (c. 439 Ma) comprise a suite of intrusive rocks ranging in composition from clinopyroxenites, through potassic melasyenites to quartz syenites. The rock suite at Loch Borralan also includes nepheline syenite. Geochemical data in the literature indicate that the intrusions are alkaline, with pronounced enrichments in LILE and LREE relative to contemporaneous calc-alkaline magmatic centres further to the south-east, although they share similar high LILE/Nb, subduction-related characteristics. The Loch Borralan Complex is associated with marginal gravity and magnetic anomalies which can be interpreted in terms of a shallow body less than 400 m thick. Analysis of rocks and drill core revealed widespread elevated Pt and Pd values in pyroxenites and syenites in both complexes. The highest concentrations, up to about 900 ppb Pt+Pd, occur in pyroxenites in the Loch Borralan Complex. Extensive archived drill core provides an excellent section through the marginal pyroxenites, which host the PGE at Loch Borralan. The pyroxenites show unusual petrological features; early clinopyroxene is followed by biotite, apatite, magnetite, sphene and plagioclase with later garnet, which might be metasomatic in origin. Sulphides occur in minor amounts. High-temperature shearing produced local granulation and mylonitisation. Later brittle deformation caused extensive micro-fracturing and the introduction of minor carbonate veining. Platinum-group minerals (PGM) were located in a number of samples with high PGE assay values. These occur as clusters of grains around 1–2 m in diameter, and are difficult to identify uniquely. A few grains appear to be magmatic; these are Pt and PtPd sulphides that occur enclosed in clinopyroxene or garnet. All other grains occur in late fractures or along grain boundaries. These include sperrylite (PtAs₂), Pd antimonides and PdBi tellurides, along with hessite (Ag₂Te). They occur in microfractures accompanied by carbonate and barite and fine-grained sulphides and are probably of secondary origin. The PGE in the pyroxenites may have been introduced during the magmatic phase of the intrusion but the observed distribution of PGM results from low-temperature, hydrothermal remobilisation following brittle deformation and introduction of fluids.

Identifying potential marine pests--a deductive approach applied to Australia

Introduced marine organisms continue to threaten coastal resources around the world. Many agencies rely on lists of potentially harmful species for risk assessment and to prioritise management responses to an incursion. This study outlines a deductive hazard assessment technique to identify potential marine pests that may arrive via ballast water and/or hull fouling. This technique is then applied in an Australian context to identify potential "next pests" for this region. An extensive literature review identified 851 introduced marine species from around the world. The following selection criteria were then applied to develop a next pest list: (a) the species has been reported in a shipping vector or has a ship-mediated invasion history; (b) the vector still exists; (c) the species is responsible for economic or environmental harm; and, (d) it is exotic to Australia or present in Australia but subject to official control. The selection criteria are transparent and consistent with other international and national biosecurity initiatives. Thirty three of the species identified in the initial literature review satisfied all four selection criteria. These species are described here together with their associated vectors and impacts.     

Estimating ground water discharge by hydrograph separation

Iron Mountain is located in the West Shasta Mining District in California. An investigation of the generation of acid rock drainage and metals loading to Boulder Creek at Iron Mountain was conducted. As part of that investigation, a hydrograph separation technique was used to determine the contribution of ground water to total flow in Boulder Creek. During high-flow storm events in the winter months, peak flow in Boulder Creek can exceed 22.7 m3/sec, and comprises surface runoff, interflow, and ground water discharge. A hydrograph separation technique was used to estimate ground water discharge into Boulder Creek during high-flow conditions. Total ground water discharge to the creek approaches 0.31 m3/sec during the high-flow season. The hydrograph separation technique combined with an extensive field data set provided reasonable estimates of ground water discharge. These estimates are useful for other investigations, such as determining a corresponding metals load from the metal-rich ground water found at Iron Mountain and thus contributing to remedial alternatives.     

地下开采块状硫化物矿的一种简化经济滤波器

隐伏矿产资源评价和勘查早期，以及计划阶段，需要建立预可行成本模式。勘查过程中，区分经济与非经济矿床的这些成本模式有助于勘查企业集中在能获益的靶区勘查。资源评价过程中，这些模式用来排除那些即便发现但没有经济价值的矿床。美国矿业局（USBM）先前建立的简化成本模式就是为了解决这一问题的（Camm，1991）。这些成本模式采用矿床储量、品位和埋深参数评估运行成本和固定成本，也是USBM预可行分析软件的一部分（Smith，1991）。     

A comparison of non-linear least square and GLUE for model calibration and uncertainty estimation for pesticide transport in soils

The problems of calibrating soil hydraulic and transport parameters are well documented, particularly when data are limited. Programs such as CXTFIT, UUCODE and PEST, based on well established principles of statistical inference, will often provide good fits to limited observations giving the impression that a useful model of a particular soil system has been obtained. This may be the case, but such an approach may grossly underestimate the uncertainties associated with future predictions of the system and resulting dependent variables. In this paper, this is illustrated by an application of CXTFIT within the generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) approach to model calibration which is based on a quite different philosophy. CXTFIT gives very good fits to the observed breakthrough curves for several different model formulations, resulting in very small parameter uncertainty estimates. The application of GLUE, however, shows that much wider ranges of parameter values can provide acceptable fits to the data. The wider range of potential outcomes should be more robust in model prediction, especially when used to constrain field scale models.     

Simulated climate change during the last 1,000 years: comparing the ECHO-G general circulation model with the MAGICC simple climate model

An intercomparison of eight climate simulations, each driven with estimated natural and anthropogenic forcings for the last millennium, indicates that the so-called “Erik” simulation of the ECHO-G coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model exhibits atypical behaviour. The ECHO-G simulation has a much stronger cooling trend from 1000 to 1700 and a higher rate of warming since 1800 than the other simulations, with the result that the overall amplitude of millennial-scale temperature variations in the ECHO-G simulation is much greater than in the other models. The MAGICC (Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas-Induced Climate Change) simple climate model is used to investigate possible causes of this atypical behaviour. It is shown that disequilibrium in the initial conditions probably contributes spuriously to the cooling trend in the early centuries of the simulation, and that the omission of tropospheric sulphate aerosol forcing is the likely explanation for the anomalously large recent warming. The simple climate model results are used to adjust the ECHO-G Erik simulation to mitigate these effects, which brings the simulation into better agreement with the other seven models considered here and greatly reduces the overall range of temperature variations during the last millennium simulated by ECHO-G. Smaller inter-model differences remain which can probably be explained by a combination of the particular forcing histories and model sensitivities of each experiment. These have not been investigated here, though we have diagnosed the effective climate sensitivity of ECHO-G to be 2.39±0.11 K for a doubling of CO₂.