Uncertainty assessment of a process-based integrated catchment model of phosphorus

Despite the many models developed for phosphorus concentration prediction at differing spatial and temporal scales, there has been little effort to quantify uncertainty in their predictions. Model prediction uncertainty quantification is desirable, for informed decision-making in river-systems management. An uncertainty analysis of the process-based model, integrated catchment model of phosphorus (INCA-P), within the generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) framework is presented. The framework is applied to the Lugg catchment (1,077 km²), a River Wye tributary, on the England–Wales border. Daily discharge and monthly phosphorus (total reactive and total), for a limited number of reaches, are used to initially assess uncertainty and sensitivity of 44 model parameters, identified as being most important for discharge and phosphorus predictions. This study demonstrates that parameter homogeneity assumptions (spatial heterogeneity is treated as land use type fractional areas) can achieve higher model fits, than a previous expertly calibrated parameter set. The model is capable of reproducing the hydrology, but a threshold Nash-Sutcliffe co-efficient of determination (E or R ²) of 0.3 is not achieved when simulating observed total phosphorus (TP) data in the upland reaches or total reactive phosphorus (TRP) in any reach. Despite this, the model reproduces the general dynamics of TP and TRP, in point source dominated lower reaches. This paper discusses why this application of INCA-P fails to find any parameter sets, which simultaneously describe all observed data acceptably. The discussion focuses on uncertainty of readily available input data, and whether such process-based models should be used when there isn’t sufficient data to support the many parameters.     

Effect of stratification on tidal circulation over the Scotian Shelf and Gulf of St. Lawrence: a numerical study using a three-dimensional shelf circulation model

A three-dimensional shelf circulation model is used to examine the effect of seasonal changes in water-column stratification on the tidal circulation over the Scotian Shelf and Gulf of St. Lawrence. The model is driven by tidal forcing specified at the model’s lateral open boundaries in terms of tidal sea surface elevations and depth-averaged currents for five major tidal constituents (M₂, N₂, S₂, K₁, and O₁). Three numerical experiments are conducted to determine the influence of baroclinic pressure gradients and changes in vertical mixing, both associated with stratification, on the seasonal variation of tidal circulation over the study region. The model is initialized with climatological hydrographic fields and integrated for 16 months in each experiment. Model results from the last 12 months are analyzed to determine the dominant semidiurnal and diurnal tidal components, M₂ and K₁. Model results suggest that the seasonal variation in the water-column stratification affects the M₂ tidal circulation most strongly over the shelf break and over the deep waters off the Scotian Shelf (through the development of baroclinic pressure gradients) and along Northumberland Strait in the Gulf of St. Lawrence (through changes in vertical mixing and bottom stress). For the K₁ constituent, the baroclinic pressure gradient and vertical mixing have opposing effects on the tidal circulation over several areas of the study region, while near the bottom, vertical mixing appears to play only a small role in the tidal circulation.     

Trace metal distributions across the continental shelf near Otago Peninsula, New Zealand

The distributions of the trace metals iron (Fe), copper (Cu) and cadmium (Cd) along with hydrological parameters (salinity, temperature and reactive phosphate) across the New Zealand continental shelf near Otago Peninsula have been studied. This is a region in which the Subtropical Convergence (STC), a major oceanic front separating subtropical and subantarctic waters, is uniquely located close to land, permitting an examination of the influence of terrestrial sources of Fe and Cu on oceanic waters containing excess micronutrients. Acid-soluble (110 nmol kg⁻¹) and dissolved (6.3 nmol kg⁻¹) Fe concentrations were highest over the central shelf, and decreased rapidly across the mixing zone of the STC to about 5 nmol kg⁻¹ for both forms. The distribution of acid-soluble and dissolved Cu were similar to their counterparts for Fe. Depth-concentration profiles for acid-soluble Fe and Cu suggest resuspension of shelf sediments is the main source. The ratio of oxine-labile to acid-soluble Fe varied from 0.03 to 0.26, with the highest values found in the near surface waters. Oxine-labile Fe and Cu also decreased in concentration in a seawards direction, and with depth, indicating the influence of near surface processes on the reactivity of these elements. Cd concentrations across the continental shelf were very low (<200 pmol kg⁻¹) and exhibited no clear spatial trend and no correlation with phosphate. Comparison of the Cd/P ratio across the shelf indicated that the waters in this region were strongly depleted in Cd relative to P. Phosphate concentrations were lowest in neritic water and increased in the seawards direction because of mixing with nutrient-rich Subantarctic Surface Water.     

Rapid simulated hydrologic response within the variably saturated near surface

Column and field experiments have shown that the hydrologic response to increases in rainfall rates can be more rapid than expected from simple estimates. Physics‐based hydrologic response simulation, with the Integrated Hydrology Model (InHM), is used here to investigate rapid hydrologic response, within the variably saturated near surface, to temporal variations in applied flux at the surface boundary. The factors controlling the speed of wetting front propagation are discussed within the Darcy–Buckingham conceptual framework, including kinematic wave approximations. The Coos Bay boundary‐value problem is employed to examine simulated discharge, pressure head, and saturation responses to a large increase in applied surface flux. The results presented here suggest that physics‐based simulations are capable of representing rapid hydrologic response within the variably saturated near surface. The new InHM simulations indicate that the temporal discretization and measurement precision needed to capture the rapid subsurface response to a spike increase in surface flux, necessary for both data‐based analyses and evaluation of physics‐based models, are smaller than the capabilities of the instrumentation deployed at the Coos Bay experimental catchment. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimating hydraulic properties using a moving-model approach and multiple aquifer tests

A new method was developed for characterizing geohydrologic columns that extended >600 m deep at sites with as many as six discrete aquifers. This method was applied at 12 sites within the Southwest Florida Water Management District. Sites typically were equipped with multiple production wells, one for each aquifer and one or more observation wells per aquifer. The average hydraulic properties of the aquifers and confining units within radii of 30 to >300 m were characterized at each site. Aquifers were pumped individually and water levels were monitored in stressed and adjacent aquifers during each pumping event. Drawdowns at a site were interpreted using a radial numerical model that extended from land surface to the base of the geohydrologic column and simulated all pumping events. Conceptually, the radial model moves between stress periods and recenters on the production well during each test. Hydraulic conductivity was assumed homogeneous and isotropic within each aquifer and confining unit. Hydraulic property estimates for all of the aquifers and confining units were consistent and reasonable because results from multiple aquifers and pumping events were analyzed simultaneously.     

Geology and Exploration of the Manteo Prospect off North Carolina

The Manteo Prospect is located about 45 mi northeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. It is a high-risk prospect with world-class potential. The 21-lease unit was approved by the Minerals Management Service (MMS) in May 1990. A suspension of operations (SOO) was issued in October 1992 by the MMS. Chevron was approved for an exploration permit for Block 510 while Mobil's plan for Block 467 was under appeal. The Baltimore Canyon Trough and the Carolina Trough are the two large and deep sedimentary basins of the Atlantic Continental Margin. The Manteo unit is at the juncture of these two sedimentary basins. The Manteo Prospect is interpreted as a reef with its overlying structural high on the seaward edge of a carbonate platform. The structure is approximately30 mi long and 3-5 mi wide. The initial exploration well will be located at the highest point on the structure. Potential source rocks for the prospect are euxinic basinal shales and black micrite as well as interior lagoonal shales associated with the reef. The geothermal gradient projected from wells in the Baltimore Canyon Trough indicates that thermally mature sediments would be encountered below 12,000 ft in the vicinity of the Manteo Prospect. Mobil estimated that the Manteo Prospect may contain as much as 5 trillion ft3 of dry natural gas. A meeting was held between the State of North Carolina, MMS, and Chevron in February 1997 to discuss the proposal for the Manteo Prospect. An additional meeting held in September concentrated on drilling technology. A well could be drilled on Block 467 or Block 510 during the year 2000. Chevron has not decided which type of drilling vessel will be employed. The potential shorebase for operations is Morehead City, North Carolina.     

A re-examination of the mechanism and human impact of catastrophic mass flows originating on Nevado Huascarán, Cordillera Blanca, Peru in 1962 and 1970

The 1962 and 1970 Huascarán mass movements, originated as rock/ice falls from the mountain's North Peak, transformed into higher-volume high-velocity mud-rich debris flows by incorporation of snow from the surface of a glacier below Huascarán and the substantial entrainment of morainic and colluvial material from slopes below the glacier terminus. Water for fluidization of the entrained material originated in the melting of incorporated snow and the liberation of soil moisture contained within the entrained materials. Eyewitness reports indicate very high mean velocities for the events; 17–35 m/s (1962) and 50–85 m/s (1970). The runout distances and velocity profiles of both events were simulated using DAN/W. Both mass movements continued downstream in the Rio Santa as debris floods (aluviones) that in 1970 reached the Pacific at a distance of 180 km. In strong contrast to publications in the geosciences literature, 1961 Peru Census data indicates that the death toll of the 1970 event is ca. 6000 and that total life loss in the two events did not exceed 7000 people.     

Carbonatite occurrences of the world: map and database, by A. R. Woolley and B. A. Kjarsgaard.

Labour of love For those of us who do not have the genes needed for sorting,cataloguing, and pigeon-holing, we need those who do. This open-filereport (5796) from the Geological Survey of Canada entitledCarbonatite occurrences of the world: map and database includesa CD brimming, perhaps overflowing, with information about carbonatites.Woolley started listing alkaline rocks and carbonatites alongwith their ages, spatial distribution, and associated rockstypes in his volume on the carbonatites of North and South Americathat appeared in 1987. Since then, other volumes have appearedwith Woolley acting as the main     

Tracking volcanic sulfur dioxide clouds for aviation hazard mitigation

Satellite measurements of volcanic sulfur dioxide (SO₂) emissions can provide critical information for aviation hazard mitigation, particularly when ash detection techniques fail. Recent developments in space-based SO₂ monitoring are discussed, focusing on daily, global ultraviolet (UV) measurements by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on NASA’s Aura satellite. OMI’s high sensitivity to SO₂ permits long-range tracking of volcanic clouds in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) and accurate mapping of their perimeters to facilitate avoidance. Examples from 2006 to 2007 include eruptions of Soufriere Hills (Montserrat), Rabaul (Papua New Guinea), Nyamuragira (DR Congo), and Jebel at Tair (Yemen). A tendency for some volcanic clouds to occupy the jet stream suggests an increased threat to aircraft that exploit this phenomenon. Synergy between NASA A-Train sensors such as OMI and the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) on the Aqua satellite can provide critical information on volcanic cloud altitude. OMI and AIRS SO₂ data products are being produced in near real-time for distribution to Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers (VAACs) via a NOAA website. Operational issues arising from these improved SO₂ measurements include the reliability of SO₂ as proxy for co-erupted ash, the duration of VAAC advisories for long-lived volcanic clouds, and the potential effects of elevated concentrations of SO₂ and sulfate aerosol in ash-poor clouds on aircraft and avionics (including cumulative effects after multiple inadvertent transits through dilute clouds). Further research is required in these areas. Aviation community assistance is sought through continued reporting of sulfurous odors or other indications of diffuse volcanic cloud encounters, in order to validate the satellite retrievals.