VARIATIONS IN DEW-POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES

Atmospheric humidity as measured by dew-point temperatures is an important component of the climate of the southern United States. The South experiences the country's highest dew-point temperatures throughout the year. A gradient is established between moist air along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts inland toward the drier areas of northwestern Texas. This gradient is strongest in winter and weakest in summer when consistent southerly circulation maintains humid conditions throughout the region. Interannual variability also is largest in the winter and smallest in summer. Dew-point temperatures are strongly related to air temperatures in the non-summer season, but are more fundamentally linked to air mass and circulation changes. Recent increases in southerly flow in the spring and autumn seasons have led to a significant increase in dew-point temperatures in many portions of the region. However, there is no evidence at this time to suggest that increased evaporation from greenhouse warming has altered dew-point temperatures in the southern United States.     

Improving the way we think about projecting future energy use and emissions of carbon dioxide

A variety of decision makers need projections of future energy demand, CO₂ emissions and similar factors that extend many decades into the future. The past performance of such projections has been systematically overconfident. Analysts have often used scenarios based on detailed story lines that spell out “plausible alternative futures” as a central tool for evaluating uncertainty. No probabilities are typically assigned to such scenarios. We argue that this practice is often ineffective. Rather than expanding people’s judgment about the range of uncertainty about the future, scenario-based analysis is more likely to lead to systematic overconfidence, to an underestimate of the range of possible future outcomes. We review relevant findings from the literature on human judgment under uncertainty and discuss their relevance to the task of making probabilistic projections. The more detail that one adds to the story line of a scenario, the more probable it will appear to most people, and the greater the difficulty they likely will have in imagining other, equally or more likely, ways in which the same outcome could be reached. We suggest that scenario based approaches make analysts particularly prone to such cognitive biases, and then outline a strategy by which improved projections, tailored to the needs of specific decision makers, might be developed.     

Climate policy under uncertainty: a case for solar geoengineering

Solar Radiation Management (SRM) has two characteristics that make it useful for managing climate risk: it is quick and it is cheap. SRM cannot, however, perfectly offset CO₂-driven climate change, and its use introduces novel climate and environmental risks. We introduce SRM in a simple economic model of climate change that is designed to explore the interaction between uncertainty in the climate’s response to CO₂ and the risks of SRM in the face of carbon-cycle inertia. The fact that SRM can be implemented quickly, reducing the effects of inertia, makes it a valuable tool to manage climate risks even if it is relatively ineffective at compensating for CO₂-driven climate change or if its costs are large compared to traditional abatement strategies. Uncertainty about SRM is high, and decision makers must decide whether or not to commit to research that might reduce this uncertainty. We find that even modest reductions in uncertainty about the side-effects of SRM can reduce the overall costs of climate change in the order of 10%.     

Changes in tropical Atlantic interannual variability from a substantial weakening of the meridional overturning circulation

In response to a substantial weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)—from a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model experiment—significant changes in the interannual variability are found over the tropical Atlantic, characterized by an increase of variance (by ~150 %) in boreal late spring-early summer and a decrease of variance (by ~60 %) in boreal autumn. This study focuses on understanding physical mechanisms responsible for these changes in interannual variability in the tropical Atlantic. It demonstrates that the increase of variability in spring is a consequence of an increase in the variance of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, which has a large impact on the tropical Atlantic via anomalous surface heat fluxes. Winter El Niño (La Niña) affects the eastern equatorial Atlantic by decreasing (increasing) cloud cover and surface wind speed which is associated with anomalous downward (upward) short wave radiation and reduced (enhanced) upward latent heat fluxes, creating anomalous positive (negative) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the region from winter to spring. On the other hand, the decrease of SST variance in autumn is due to a deeper mean thermocline which weakens the impact of the thermocline movement on SST variation. The comparison between the model results and observations is not straightforward owing to the influence of model biases and the lack of a major MOC weakening event in the instrumental record. However, it is argued that the basic physical mechanisms found in the model simulations are likely to be robust and therefore have relevance to understanding tropical Atlantic variability in the real world, perhaps with modified seasonality.     

Validation of very high cloud droplet number concentrations in air masses transported thousands of kilometres over the ocean

The microstructure of orographic clouds related to the aerosol present was studied during the second Aerosol Characterisation Experiment (ACE‐2). Very high cloud droplet number concentrations (almost 3000 cm⁻³) were observed. These high concentrations occurred when clouds formed on a hill slope at Tenerife in polluted air masses originating in Europe that had transported the order of 1000 km over the Atlantic Ocean. The validity of the measured droplet number concentrations was investigated by comparing with measurements of the aerosol upstream of the cloud and cloud interstitial aerosol. Guided by distributions of the ratios between the measurements, three criteria of typically 30% in maximum deviation were applied to the measurements to test their validity. Agreement was found for 88% of the cases. The validated data set spans droplet number concentrations of 150–3000 cm⁻³. The updraught velocity during the cloud formation was estimated to 2.2 m s⁻¹ by model calculations, which is typical of cumuliform clouds. The results of the present study are discussed in relation to cloud droplet number concentrations previously reported in the literature. The importance of promoting the mechanistic understanding of the aerosol/cloud interaction and the use of validation procedures of cloud microphysical parameters is stressed in relation to the assessment of the indirect climatic effect of aerosols.     

The nature of publishing and assessment in Geography and Environmental Studies: evidence from the Research Assessment Exercise 2008

We present a summary of the kinds of outputs submitted to the Geography and Environmental Studies sub-panel (H-32) for the 2008 Research Assessment Exercise (RAE), and examine the relationships between the peer assessment of research quality that the RAE process has typified, and alternative modes of assessment based on bibliometrics. This comparison is effected using (in aggregate form) some of the results from the RAE, together with citation data gathered after completion of the RAE assessment, specifically for the purpose of this paper. We conclude that, if it continues to be necessary and desirable to assess, in some measure and however imprecisely, research quality, then peer assessment cannot be replaced by bibliometrics. Bibliometrics permit measurement of something that may be linked to quality but is essentially a different phenomenon – a measure of 'impact', for example.     

Economics of mining law

Modern mining law, by facilitating socially and environmentally acceptable exploration, development, and production of mineral materials, helps secure the benefits of mineral production while minimizing environmental harm and accounting for increasing land-use competition. Mining investments are sunk costs, irreversibly tied to a particular mineral site, and require many years to recoup. Providing security of tenure is the most critical element of a practical mining law.Governments owning mineral rights have a conflict of interest between their roles as a profit-maximizing landowner and as a guardian of public welfare. As a monopoly supplier, governments have considerable power to manipulate mineral-rights markets. To avoid monopoly rent-seeking by governments, a competitive market for government-owned mineral rights must be created by artifice.What mining firms will pay for mineral rights depends on expected exploration success and extraction costs. Landowners and mining firms will negotlate respective shares of anticipated differential rents, usually allowing for some form of risk sharing. Private landowners do not normally account for external benefits or costs of minerals use.Government ownership of mineral rights allows for direct accounting of social prices for mineral-bearing lands and external costs. An equitable and efficient method is to charge an appropriate reservation price for surface land use, net of the value of land after reclamation, and to recover all or part of differential rents through a flat income or resource-rent tax. The traditional royalty on gross value of production, essentially a regressive income tax, cannot recover as much rent as a flat income tax, causes arbitrary mineral-reserve sterilization, and creates a bias toward development on the extensive margin where marginal environmental costs are higher.Mitigating environmental costs and resolving land-use conflicts require local evaluation and planning. National oversight ensures that the relative global avaliability of minerals and other values are considered, and can also promote adaptive efficiency by publicizing creative local solutions, providing technical support, and funding useful research.     

An upper limit to coronal X-rays from single,magnetic white dwarfs

Pointed ROSAT PSPC exposures of 9277 and 6992 sec, directed toward the nearby, single, cool, magnetic white dwarfs GR 290 and EG 250 yielded no counts significantly above the expected background rate. The corresponding flux limits (for an assumed source temperature of l keV) are 1.0 and 1.7 × 10⁻¹⁴erg cm⁻² s⁻¹, within the 0.1–2.5 keV bandpass of the instrument (99% confidence limits). This is more than an order of magnitude below the tentative detection level (for GR 290) and limits (for four other similar stars) obtained from archival Einstein data in 1991. The corresponding limits on coronal electron density are comparable with those implied if cyclotron emission is not responsible for any of the features observed in the optical spectra of magnetic white dwarfs. X-ray data currently provide no evidence for the existence of coronae around these stars. A final long observation (25,000 sec of GD 356) is scheduled for later this year on ROSAT, along with coordinated EUVE observations.