The historical geography of homicide in the U.S., 1935–1980

High homicide rates constitute a major public health problem in the United States. In the South high rates have been historically conspicuous, and have contributed to the elevated level in the U.S. compared to other countries at a comparable stage of development. This research illustrates the historical persistence of homicide in the South and presents a regionalization of U.S. states based on their quinquennial homicide profiles since 1935. Several social indicators are plotted against trends in lethal violence for the homicide regions. The analysis suggests a pattern of rates declining away from a core region in Alabama and Georgia, and some convergence between the high rates of the South and the increasing rates of other regions. Southern homicide rates remain high in spite of suggestions that cultural differences between the South and other regions have eroded to insignificance.     

A numerical compaction model of overpressuring in shales

A one-dimensional model of sediment compaction is presented to relate pressure, porosity, permeability, and fluid and solid-particle velocities in an evolving sedimentary basin. The burial history of a sedimentary package is followed and incorporated into rate models for diagenetic reactions to predict clay compositions with depth. The governing set of nonlinear, partial differential equations constitutes a moving boundary problem and is solved by a finite difference scheme. Sedimentation rates and a permeability-porosity function for shales are required to implement the model. Additional factors are incorporated to mimic the effect of increased fluid volume generated by dehydration from clay mineral transformations and by thermal expansion. We demonstrate that the major cause of overpressuring in sediments accumulating along passive margins is nonequilibrium compaction. Sedimentation rates and strata permeability are the most important geologic factors in the formation of overpressured zones. Smectite dehydration and aquathermal pressuring play secondary roles in the development and sustenance of overpressures.     

Some observations on suspended sediment dynamics in Storbregrova,Jotunheimen

Observations are reported of the dynamics of suspended sediment transport in the meltstream of Storbreen in the Jotunheimen. Fine sediment is transferred from the subglacial to the proglacial environment during low flow (meltdominated) periods, and then removed from the catchment during high flow (rainfall-controlled) events. Both diurnal and storm period sediment load-discharge relationships involve clockwise hysteresis, but separate multivariate rating curves define variations of load with streamflow according to (1) the relative importance of meltwater and rainfall runoff, and (2) changes in the sediment source areas contributing to the stream at different times. Particle size variations in the suspended sediment also reflect varying source area influences.     

Distribution of thermal areas on an active lava flow field: Landsat observations of Kilauea,Hawaii, July 1991

A Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) image acquired on 23 July 1991 recorded widespread activity associated with the Episode 48 of the Pu'u 'O'o-Kupaianaha eruption of Kilauea Volcano, Hawaii. The scene contains a very large number (>3500) of thermally elevated near infrared (0.8–2.35 m) pixels (each 900 m²), which enable the spatial distribution of volcanic activity to be identified. This activity includes a lava lake within Pu'u 'O'o cone, an active lava tube system (7.9 km in length) with skylights between the Kupaianaha lava shield and several ocean entry points, and extensive active surface flows (total area of 1.3 km²) within a much larger area of cooling flows (total16 km²). The production of an average flux density map from the TM data of the flow field, wherein the average flux density is defined in units of Wm^-2, allows for the chronology of emplacement of active and cooling flows to be determined. The flux density map reveals that there were at least three breakouts (>5000 Wm^-2) feeding active flows, but on the day that the data were collected the TM recorded a waning phase of surface activity in this area, based on the relatively large amount of intermediate power-emitting (cooling) flows compared to high power-emitting (active) flows. The production of a comparable flux density map for future eruptions would aid in the assessment of volcanic hazards if the data were available in near-real time.     

The Queens' flare: Its structure and development; precursors,pre-flare brightenings,and aftermaths

We continue previous research on the limb flare of 30 April, 1980, 20:20 UT, observed in X-rays by several instruments aboard the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM). It is shown quantitatively that the flare originated in an emerging magnetically confined kernel (diameter ～ 20″) which existed for about ten to fifteen minutes, and from which energetic electrons streamed, in at least two injections, into a previously existing complicated magnetic loop system thus forming a less bright but extended and long-lived tongue. The tongue had a length of ～ 35 000 km and lasted ～ 90 min in X-rays (～ 10 keV); at lower energies (～ 0.7 keV) it was larger (～ 80 000 km) and lasted longer. The total number of energetic electrons (≈ 10³⁷) initially present in the kernel is of the same order as the number present in the tongue after the kernel's decline. This gives evidence that the energetic electrons in the tongue originated mainly in the kernel. The electron number densities in the kernel and tongue at maximum brightness were ～ 4.5 × 10¹¹ and ～ 1 × 10¹¹ cm^#X2212;3, respectively. During the first eight minutes of its existence the tongue was hotter than the kernel, but it cooled off gradually. Its decline in intensity and temperature was exponential; energy was lost by radiation and by conduction through the footpoints of the loop system. These footpoints have a cross-section of only ～ 3 × 10⁶ km². This small value, as well as photographs in a Civ UV emission line, suggests a highly filamentary structure of the system; this is further supported by the finding that the tongue had a ‘filling factor’ of ～ 10^#X2212;2. Several faint X-ray brightenings (? 0.005 of the flare's maximum intensity) were observed at various locations along the solar limb for several hours before and after the flare. At ～ 30 min before the flare's onset a faint (? 0.02) flare precursor occurred, coinciding in place and shape with the flare. First the kernel precursor was brightest but the tongue precursor increased continuously in brightness and was the brightest part of the precursor some 10–15 min after the first visibility of the kernel precursor, until the start of the main flare. This suggests (weak) continuous electron acceleration in the tongue during a period of at least 30 min. The main flare was caused by strong emergence of magnetic field followed by two consecutive field line reconnections and accelerations in a small loop system, causing footpoint heating. Subsequently plasma streamed (convectively) into a pre-existing system of larger loops, forming the tongue.     

A replicated 3000 yr proxy-climate record from Coom Rigg Moss and Felecia Moss,the Border Mires,northern England

Quantitative plant macrofossil and colorimetric humification analyses have been used to reconstruct proxy-climate from two paired ombrotrophic bogs in northern England (Coom Rigg Moss and Felecia Moss). Detrended correspondence analysis was used to transform the raw floral data into indices of mire surface wetness. The chronology of each peat profile was determined by radiocarbon assay, supported by pollen correlations. Palaeoclimatic reconstructions have been made by linking documented historical changes in climate, and other proxy-climate records, to those inferred from the sites investigated in the study region. Both sites contain a sensitive palaeoclimatic record, as ten periods of increased effective precipitation have been detected between ca. cal. ad 1770–1800, ad 1400–1470, ad 1110–1260, ad 920–1060, ad 550–670, ad 210–360, 30 bc to ad 80, 180–130 bc, 590–520 bc and 760–710 bc. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Event and model dependent rainfall adjustments to improve discharge predictions

Most conceptual rainfall–runoff models use as input spatially averaged rainfall fields which are typically associated with significant errors that affect the model outcome. In this study, it was hypothesised that a simple spatially and temporally averaged event-dependent rainfall multiplier can account for errors in the rainfall input. The potentials and limitations of this lumped multiplier approach were explored by evaluating the effects of multipliers on the accuracy and precision of the predictive distributions. Parameter sets found to be behavioural across a range of different flood events were assumed to be a good representation of the catchment dynamics and were used to identify rainfall multipliers for each of the individual events. An effect of the parameter sets on identified multipliers was found; however, it was small compared to the differences between events. Accounting for event-dependent multipliers improved the reliability of the predictions. At the cost of a small decrease in precision, the distribution of identified multipliers for past events can be used to account for possible rainfall errors when predicting future events. By using behavioural parameter sets to identify rainfall multipliers, the method offers a simple and computationally efficient way to address rainfall errors in hydrological modelling.