Characteristics of Autumn Precipitation Trends in the Northeastern United States

Previous research has shown that the northeastern United States experienced a significant increase in precipitation during the twentieth century, especially during the autumn. This shift toward wetter conditions can be explained by examining trends in daily precipitation characteristics. Early season precipitation changes in the western portion of the study area were associated with increases in the frequency of precipitation‐days. Later in the season a coincident increase in precipitation‐day intensity enhanced these trends. Tropical storms had little influence on autumn precipitation increases. The study suggests that, instead, changes in regional atmospheric circulation may be responsible for changing precipitation characteristics.     

Real-time measurement of volcanic SO2 emissions: validation of a new UV correlation spectrometer (FLYSPEC)

A miniaturized, lightweight and low-cost UV correlation spectrometer, the FLYSPEC, has been developed as an alternative for the COSPEC, which has long been the mainstay for monitoring volcanic sulfur dioxide fluxes. Field experiments have been conducted with the FLYSPEC at diverse volcanic systems, including Masaya (Nicaragua), Poás (Costa Rica), Stromboli, Etna and Vulcano (Italy), Villarica (Chile) and Kilauea (USA). We present here those validation measurements that were made simultaneously with COSPEC at Kilauea between March 2002 and February 2003. These experiments, with source emission rates that ranged from 95 to 1,560 t d⁻¹, showed statistically identical results from both instruments. SO₂ path-concentrations ranged from 0 to >1,000 ppm-m with average correlation coefficients greater than r ²=0.946. The small size and low cost create the opportunity for FLYSPEC to be used in novel deployment modes that have the potential to revolutionize the manner in which volcanic and industrial monitoring is performed.     

CO2 Mitigation by Agriculture: An Overview

Agriculture currently contributes significantly to the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere, primarily through the conversion of native ecosystems to agricultural uses in the tropics. Yet there are major opportunities for mitigation of CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions through changes in the use and management of agricultural lands. Agricultural mitigation options can be broadly divided into two categories: (I) strategies to maintain and increase stocks of organic C in soils (and biomass), and (ii) reductions in fossil C consumption, including reduced emissions by the agricultural sector itself and through agricultural production of biofuels to substitute for fossil fuels.Reducing the conversion of new land to agriculture in the tropics could substantially reduce CO2 emissions, but this option faces several difficult issues including population increase, land tenure and other socio-political factors in developing countries. The most significant opportunities for reducing tropical land conversions are in the humid tropics and in tropical wetlands. An important linkage is to improve the productivity and sustainability of existing agricultural lands in these regions.Globally, we estimate potential agricultural CO2 mitigation through soil C sequestration to be 0.4-0.9 Pg C y-1, through better management of existing agricultural soils, restoration of degraded lands, permanent "set-asides" of surplus agricultural lands in temperate developed countries and restoration of 10-20% of former wetlands now being used for agriculture. However, soils have a finite capacity to store additional C and therefore any increases in C stocks following changes in management would be largely realized within 50-100 years.Mitigation potential through reducing direct agricultural emissions is modest, 0.01-0.05 Pg C y-1. However, the potential to offset fossil C consumption through the use of biofuels produced by agriculture is substantial, 0.5-1.6 Pg C y-1, mainly through the production of dedicated biofuel crops with a smaller contribution (0.2-0.3 Pg C y-1) from crop residues.Many agricultural mitigation options represent "win-win" situations, in that there are important side benefits, in addition to CO2 mitigation, that could be achieved, e.g. improved soil fertility with higher soil organic matter, protection of lands poorly suited for permanent agriculture, cost saving for fossil fuel inputs and diversification of agricultural production (e.g. biofuels). However, the needs for global food production and farmer/societal acceptability suggest that mitigation technologies should conform to: (I) the enhancement of agricultural production levels in parts of the world where food production and population demand are in delicate balance and (ii) the accrual of additional benefits to the farmer (e.g., reduced labor, reduced or more efficient use of inputs) and society at large.     

Echoes from an irradiated disc in GRO J1655–40

Oscillations observed in the light curve of Nova V1974 Cygni 1992 since the summer of 1994 have been interpreted as permanent superhumps. From simple calculations based on the tidal disc instability model of Osaki, and assuming that the accretion disc is the dominant optical source in the binary system, we predict that the nova will evolve to become an SU UMa system as its brightness declines from its present value by another 2–3 mag. Linear extrapolation of its current rate of fading (in magnitude units) puts the time of this phase transition within the next 2–4 yr. Alternatively, the brightness decline will stop before the nova reaches that level, and the system will continue to show permanent superhumps in its light curve. It will then be similar to two other old novae, V603 Aql and CP Pup, which still display the permanent superhump phenomenon 80 and 56 yr, respectively, after their eruptions. We suggest that non-magnetic novae with short orbital periods could be progenitors of permanent superhump systems.     

When is it appropriate to combine expert judgments?

Summary Rather than seeking improved methodologies, difficulty in combining expert opinion should serve as a warning flag that causes us to seek alternative modes of policy analysis. These alternatives are usually more appropriate for the real audience for our analyses.Policy analysis of climate change is too often framed in terms that amount to preparing the tools with which a benevolent world dictator could do cost-benefit analysis. This tends to overemphasize end-to-end analysis that must rely on the combined opinions of experts. This framing is unrealistic and encourages omission of important aspects of the climate problem such as its heterogeneity. Rejecting this framing in favor of alternate, less all encompassing, forms of policy analysis permits more robust results, and reduces the emphasis on combining expert opinion.While the opinions expressed here are my own, I thank Hadi Dowlatabadi, M. Granger Morgan, Ted Parson, and James Risbey for their perceptive comments.     

A laboratory study of the biogeochemical cycling of Fe,Mn, Zn and Cu across the sediment-water interface of a productive lake

Laboratory incubation experiments were carried out on sediment cores collected from Esthwaite Water, U.K., during April 1987, when the sediments displayed a characteristic surface (1.5 to 2 cm) oxide floc. The experiments were undertaken at 10°C, in the dark, under variable redox and pH conditions for periods of ~ 720 h (30 d). In some cases, realistic amounts of decomposing lake algae were added to simulate the deposition of an algal bloom. Pore waters and overlying waters were obtained from the incubated sediment cores at various time intervals and the samples analysed for pH and dissolved Fe, Mn, Zn and Cu by AAS. The results demonstrated that trace metal concentrations at the sediment-water interface can show rapid, pulsed responses to episodic events associated with controlling factors such as algal deposition and mixing conditions. The variations in dissolved Fe and Mn concentrations could generally be explained by their well known redox behaviour. Appreciable loss of Mn from solution under conditions of well-developed anoxia was consistent with adsorption of Mn²⁺ by FeS. Cu and Zn were both rapidly (24 h) released into solution during incubation of sediment cores prior to the development of anoxia in the overlying waters. Their most likely sources were the reductive remobilization of Mn oxides and the decomposition of organic matter. The addition of decomposing algae to a series of cores resulted in even higher interfacial dissolved concentrations of Cu and Zn, probably through acting as a supplementary source of the metals and through increased oxide dissolution. Switching from anoxic to oxic conditions also rapidly increased dissolved Cu and Zn concentrations, possibly due to their release during the oxidation of metal sulphides. The enhanced releases of dissolved Cu and Zn were generally short-lived with removal being attributed to the formation of sulphides during anoxia and to adsorption by Fe and Mn oxides under oxic conditions.     

Economics of mining law

Modern mining law, by facilitating socially and environmentally acceptable exploration, development, and production of mineral materials, helps secure the benefits of mineral production while minimizing environmental harm and accounting for increasing land-use competition. Mining investments are sunk costs, irreversibly tied to a particular mineral site, and require many years to recoup. Providing security of tenure is the most critical element of a practical mining law.Governments owning mineral rights have a conflict of interest between their roles as a profit-maximizing landowner and as a guardian of public welfare. As a monopoly supplier, governments have considerable power to manipulate mineral-rights markets. To avoid monopoly rent-seeking by governments, a competitive market for government-owned mineral rights must be created by artifice.What mining firms will pay for mineral rights depends on expected exploration success and extraction costs. Landowners and mining firms will negotlate respective shares of anticipated differential rents, usually allowing for some form of risk sharing. Private landowners do not normally account for external benefits or costs of minerals use.Government ownership of mineral rights allows for direct accounting of social prices for mineral-bearing lands and external costs. An equitable and efficient method is to charge an appropriate reservation price for surface land use, net of the value of land after reclamation, and to recover all or part of differential rents through a flat income or resource-rent tax. The traditional royalty on gross value of production, essentially a regressive income tax, cannot recover as much rent as a flat income tax, causes arbitrary mineral-reserve sterilization, and creates a bias toward development on the extensive margin where marginal environmental costs are higher.Mitigating environmental costs and resolving land-use conflicts require local evaluation and planning. National oversight ensures that the relative global avaliability of minerals and other values are considered, and can also promote adaptive efficiency by publicizing creative local solutions, providing technical support, and funding useful research.     

Trace element characteristics of graywackes and tectonic setting discrimination of sedimentary basins

The graywackes of Paleozoic turbidite sequences of eastern Australia show a large variation in their trace element characteristics, which reflect distinct provenance types and tectonic settings for various suites. The tectonic settings recognised are oceanic island arc, continental island arc, active continental margin, and passive margins. Immobile trace elements, e.g. La, Ce, Nd, Th, Zr, Nb, Y, Sc and Co are very useful in tectonic setting discrimination. In general, there is a systematic increase in light rare earth elements (La, Ce, Nd), Th, Nb and the Ba/Sr, Rb/Sr, La/Y and Ni/Co ratios and a decrease in V, Sc and the Ba/Rb, K/Th and K/U ratios in graywackes from oceanic island arc to continental island arc to active continental margin to passive margin settings. On the basis of graywacke geochemistry, the optimum discrimination of the tectonic settings of sedimentary basins is achieved by La-Th, La-Th-Sc, Ti/Zr-La/Sc, La/Y-Sc/Cr, Th-Sc-Zr/10 and Th-Co-Zr/10 plots. The analysed oceanic island arc graywackes are characterised by extremely low abundances of La, Th, U, Zr, Nb; low Th/U and high La/Sc, La/Th, Ti/Zr, Zr/Th ratios. The studied graywackes of the continental island arc type setting are characterised by increased abundances of La, Th, U, Zr and Nb, and can be identified by the La-Th-Sc and La/Sc versus Ti/Zr plots. Active continental margin and passive margin graywackes are discriminated by the Th-Sc-Zr/10 and Th-Co-Zr/10 plots and associated parameters (e.g. Th/Zr, Th/Sc). The most important characteristic of the analysed passive margin type graywackes is the increased abundance of Zr, high Zr/Th and lower Ba, Rb, Sr and Ti/Zr ratio compared to the active continental margin graywackes.