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171.
Characterizing streamflow changes in the agricultural U.S. Midwest is critical for effective planning and management of water resources throughout the region. The objective of this study is to determine if and how baseflow has responded to land alteration and climate changes across the study area during the 50‐year study period by exploring hydrologic variations based on long‐term stream gage data. This study evaluates monthly contributions to annual baseflow along with possible trends over the 1966–2016 period for 458 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow gages within 12 different Midwestern states. It also examines the influence of climate and land use factors on the observed baseflow trends. Monthly contribution breakdowns demonstrate how the majority of baseflow is discharged into streams during the spring months (March, April, and May) and is overall more substantial throughout the spring (especially in April) and summer (June, July, and August). Baseflow has not remained constant over the study period, and the results of the trend detection from the Mann–Kendall test reveal that baseflows have increased and are the strongest from May to September. This analysis is confirmed by quantile regression, which suggests that for most of the year, the largest changes are detected in the central part of the distribution. Although increasing baseflow trends are widespread throughout the region, decreasing trends are few and limited to Kansas and Nebraska. Further analysis reveals that baseflow changes are being driven by both climate and land use change across the region. Increasing trends in baseflow are linked to increases in precipitation throughout the year and are most prominent during May and June. Changes in agricultural intensity (in terms of harvested corn and soybean acreage) are linked to increasing trends in the central and western Midwest, whereas increasing temperatures may lead to decreasing baseflow trends in spring and summer in northern Wisconsin, Kansas, and Nebraska. 相似文献
172.
Jason D. Tambie Madiha Farag-Miller Keith Miller Bheshem Ramlal Michael Sutherland 《Marine Geodesy》2019,42(3):227-245
Using two dimensional continuous wavelet transforms, a novel method for identification of mesoscale eddies is presented to facilitate extraction of characteristics for area, amplitude, type, and location from maps of sea level anomalies. In comparison with the previously established growing method for eddy identification, it is found that the wavelet method identifies more than twice the number of eddies and is particularly better at resolving small eddies down to the 0.25 degree resolution of the data. Such research into eddy identification and tracking is significant to the assessment of eddies with potential to impact on coastlines of small islands. The method is applied to the identification of eddies on tracks towards islands of the Eastern Caribbean over 23?years. Spatial and temporal variation in rate of occurrence and magnitude is established. For Barbados there is an average of 9 anticyclonic incidents a year with maximum amplitude of typically 0.22?m in the dry seasons and 0.16?m in the wet seasons. Seasonal variation is reversed for the other islands with twice the number of anticyclonic incidents having maximum amplitudes of about 0.20?m annually. 相似文献
173.
Timothy T. Barrows John Magee Gifford Miller L. Keith Fifield 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2019,54(11):2686-2697
Wolfe Creek crater lies in northwestern Australia at the edge of the Great Sandy Desert. Together with Meteor Crater, it is one of the two largest craters on Earth from which meteorite fragments have been recovered. The age of the impact is poorly constrained and unpublished data places the event at about 300,000 years ago. In comparison, Meteor Crater is well constrained by exposure dating. In this paper, we present new ages for Wolfe Creek Crater from exposure dating using the cosmogenic nuclides 10Be and 26Al, together with optically stimulated luminescence ages (OSL) on sand from a site created by the impact. We also present a new topographic survey of the crater using photogrammetry. The exposure ages range from ~86 to 128 ka. The OSL ages indicate that the age of the impact is most likely to be ~120 ka with a maximum age of 137 ka. Considering the geomorphic setting, the most likely age of the crater is 120 ± 9 ka. Last, we review the age of Meteor Crater in Arizona. Changes in production rates and scaling factors since the original dating work revise the impact age to 61.1 ± 4.8 ka, or ~20% older than previously reported. 相似文献
174.
Jenni E. Sherriff Keith N. Wilkinson Poppy Harding Hayley Hawkins Rhys G. O. Timms Daniel S. Adler Emily J. Beverly Simon P. E. Blockley Boris Gasparyan Christina J. Manning Darren Mark Samvel Nahapetyan Katie J. Preece 《第四纪科学杂志》2022,37(1):6-27
The significance of the southern Caucasus in understanding Pleistocene hominin expansions is well established. However, the palaeoenvironments in which Palaeolithic occupation of the region took place are presently poorly defined. The Hrazdan river valley, Armenian Highlands, contains a rich Palaeolithic record alongside Middle Pleistocene volcanic, fluvial and lacustrine strata, and thus offer exciting potential for palaeoenvironmental reconstruction. We present the first results of sedimentological, geochemical, tephrostratigraphical and biological (diatoms) study of the sequence of Bird Farm 1, located in the central part of the valley. These data show six phases of landscape development during the interval 440–200 ka. The sequence represents the first quantitative Pleistocene diatom record from the Armenian Highlands and the southern Caucasus, and indicates the persistence of a deep, stratified lacustrine system, with evidence for changing lake productivity that is tentatively linked to climate. Furthermore, major element chemical characterization of visible and crypto-tephra horizons in the sequence enables the first stages of the development of a regional tephrostratigraphy. Together, the evidence from Bird Farm 1 demonstrates the importance of lacustrine archives in the region for palaeoenvironmental reconstruction and highlights the potential for linkages between archives on both a local and regional scale. 相似文献
175.
Michael J. Hollaway Keith J. Beven Clare Mc W. H. Benskin Adrian L. Collins Robert Evans Peter D. Falloon Kirsty J. Forber Kevin M. Hiscock Ron Kahana Christopher J. A. Macleod Mary C. Ockenden Martha L. Villamizar Catherine Wearing Paul J. A. Withers Jian G. Zhou Nicholas J. Barber Philip M. Haygarth 《水文研究》2018,32(17):2779-2787
River discharge and nutrient measurements are subject to aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. In this study, we present a novel method for estimating these uncertainties in colocated discharge and phosphorus (P) measurements. The “voting point”‐based method constrains the derived stage‐discharge rating curve both on the fit to available gaugings and to the catchment water balance. This helps reduce the uncertainty beyond the range of available gaugings and during out of bank situations. In the example presented here, for the top 5% of flows, uncertainties are shown to be 139% using a traditional power law fit, compared with 40% when using our updated “voting point” method. Furthermore, the method is extended to in situ and lab analysed nutrient concentration data pairings, with lower uncertainties (81%) shown for high concentrations (top 5%) than when a traditional regression is applied (102%). Overall, for both discharge and nutrient data, the method presented goes some way to accounting for epistemic uncertainties associated with nonstationary physical characteristics of the monitoring site. 相似文献
176.
Nature‐based approaches to flood risk management are increasing in popularity. Evidence for the effectiveness at the catchment scale of such spatially distributed upstream measures is inconclusive. However, it also remains an open question whether, under certain conditions, the individual impacts of a collection of flood mitigation interventions could combine to produce a detrimental effect on runoff response. A modelling framework is presented for evaluation of the impacts of hillslope and in‐channel natural flood management interventions. It couples an existing semidistributed hydrological model with a new, spatially explicit, hydraulic channel network routing model. The model is applied to assess a potential flood mitigation scheme in an agricultural catchment in North Yorkshire, United Kingdom, comprising various configurations of a single variety of in‐channel feature. The hydrological model is used to generate subsurface and surface fluxes for a flood event in 2012. The network routing model is then applied to evaluate the response to the addition of up to 59 features. Additional channel and floodplain storage of approximately 70,000 m3 is seen with a reduction of around 11% in peak discharge. Although this might be sufficient to reduce flooding in moderate events, it is inadequate to prevent flooding in the double‐peaked storm of the magnitude that caused damage within the catchment in 2012. Some strategies using features specific to this catchment are suggested in order to improve the attenuation that could be achieved by applying a nature‐based approach. 相似文献
177.
Ida K. Westerberg Giuliano Di Baldassarre Keith J. Beven Gemma Coxon Tobias Krueger 《水文科学杂志》2020,65(Z2):2001-2003
ABSTRACTErtsen discusses the representation of reality and uncertainty in our paper, raising three critical points. In response to the first, we agree that discussion of different interpretations of the concept of uncertainty is important when developing perceptual models – making different uncertainty interpretations explicit was a key motivation behind our method. Secondly, we do not, as Ertsen suggests, deny anyone who is not a “certified” scientist to have relevant knowledge. The elicitation of diverse views by discussing perceptual models is a basis for open discussion and decision making. Thirdly, Ertsen suggests that it is not useful to treat socio-hydrological systems as if they exist. We argue that we act as “pragmatic realists” in most practical applications by treating socio-hydrological systems as an external reality that can be known. But the uncertainty that arises from our knowledge limitations needs to be recognized, as it may impact on practical decision making and associated costs. 相似文献
178.
Keith Porter 《地震工程与结构动力学》2016,45(5):819-833
Second‐generation performance‐based earthquake engineering (PBEE‐2) requires a library of component fragility functions to estimate probabilistic damage to a wide variety of building components. The present work draws on a large body of (mostly) post‐earthquake reconnaissance and (some) post‐earthquake survey observations of traction elevators to create fragility functions useful in PBEE‐2. Two surveys provide detailed observations of 115 representative elevators at 12 hospitals shaken in the 1989 Loma Prieta and 1994 Northridge earthquakes and selected without regard to or foreknowledge of damage. Of these, 55 failed and 60 did not. Approximately half were installed after an important code change of 1972, so one can distinguish the performance of pre‐1973 and post‐1973 elevator construction. They experienced a range of strong motion: 22 with peak ground acceleration (PGA) < 0.25 g, 93 with 0.25 g < PGA < 0.85 g. The hospitals had elevator failure rates as low as 0% and as high as 100%. A third survey describes damage qualitatively for six sites with PGA ≤ 0.25 and per‐site failure rates of 0% to perhaps 30%. Fragility functions are offered where the damage state is the loss of functionality of the elevator. The elevators in these surveys exhibit a median capacity of PGA ≈ 0.35 g with a logarithmic standard deviation of 0.40. Capacity is modestly sensitive to whether the elevator was installed before or after 1973. Using building‐specific intensity measures such as Sa(T1) does not improve the fragility functions. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
179.
180.
Matthew S. A. Horstwood George Gehrels Simon E. Jackson Noah M. McLean Chad Paton Norman J. Pearson Keith Sircombe Paul Sylvester Pieter Vermeesch James F. Bowring Daniel J. Condon Blair Schoene 《Geostandards and Geoanalytical Research》2016,40(3):311-332
The LA‐ICP‐MS U‐(Th‐)Pb geochronology international community has defined new standards for the determination of U‐(Th‐)Pb ages. A new workflow defines the appropriate propagation of uncertainties for these data, identifying random and systematic components. Only data with uncertainties relating to random error should be used in weighted mean calculations of population ages; uncertainty components for systematic errors are propagated after this stage, preventing their erroneous reduction. Following this improved uncertainty propagation protocol, data can be compared at different uncertainty levels to better resolve age differences. New reference values for commonly used zircon, monazite and titanite reference materials are defined (based on ID‐TIMS) after removing corrections for common lead and the effects of excess 230Th. These values more accurately reflect the material sampled during the determination of calibration factors by LA‐ICP‐MS analysis. Recommendations are made to graphically represent data only with uncertainty ellipses at 2s and to submit or cite validation data with sample data when submitting data for publication. New data‐reporting standards are defined to help improve the peer‐review process. With these improvements, LA‐ICP‐MS U‐(Th‐)Pb data can be considered more robust, accurate, better documented and quantified, directly contributing to their improved scientific interpretation. 相似文献