The Water Vapour Continuum: Brief History and Recent Developments

The water vapour continuum is characterised by absorption that varies smoothly with wavelength, from the visible to the microwave. It is present within the rotational and vibrational–rotational bands of water vapour, which consist of large numbers of narrow spectral lines, and in the many ‘windows’ between these bands. The continuum absorption in the window regions is of particular importance for the Earth’s radiation budget and for remote-sensing techniques that exploit these windows. Historically, most attention has focused on the 8–12?μm (mid-infrared) atmospheric window, where the continuum is relatively well-characterised, but there have been many fewer measurements within bands and in other window regions. In addition, the causes of the continuum remain a subject of controversy. This paper provides a brief historical overview of the development of understanding of the continuum and then reviews recent developments, with a focus on the near-infrared spectral region. Recent laboratory measurements in near-infrared windows, which reveal absorption typically an order of magnitude stronger than in widely used continuum models, are shown to have important consequences for remote-sensing techniques that use these windows for retrieving cloud properties.     

Earthquake Recurrence in Simulated Fault Systems

We employ a computationally efficient fault system earthquake simulator, RSQSim, to explore effects of earthquake nucleation and fault system geometry on earthquake occurrence. The simulations incorporate rate- and state-dependent friction, high-resolution representations of fault systems, and quasi-dynamic rupture propagation. Faults are represented as continuous planar surfaces, surfaces with a random fractal roughness, and discontinuous fractally segmented faults. Simulated earthquake catalogs have up to 10⁶ earthquakes that span a magnitude range from ～M4.5 to M8. The seismicity has strong temporal and spatial clustering in the form of foreshocks and aftershocks and occasional large-earthquake pairs. Fault system geometry plays the primary role in establishing the characteristics of stress evolution that control earthquake recurrence statistics. Empirical density distributions of earthquake recurrence times at a specific point on a fault depend strongly on magnitude and take a variety of complex forms that change with position within the fault system. Because fault system geometry is an observable that greatly impacts recurrence statistics, we propose using fault system earthquake simulators to define the empirical probability density distributions for use in regional assessments of earthquake probabilities.     

Seismic fragility of traction elevators

Second‐generation performance‐based earthquake engineering (PBEE‐2) requires a library of component fragility functions to estimate probabilistic damage to a wide variety of building components. The present work draws on a large body of (mostly) post‐earthquake reconnaissance and (some) post‐earthquake survey observations of traction elevators to create fragility functions useful in PBEE‐2. Two surveys provide detailed observations of 115 representative elevators at 12 hospitals shaken in the 1989 Loma Prieta and 1994 Northridge earthquakes and selected without regard to or foreknowledge of damage. Of these, 55 failed and 60 did not. Approximately half were installed after an important code change of 1972, so one can distinguish the performance of pre‐1973 and post‐1973 elevator construction. They experienced a range of strong motion: 22 with peak ground acceleration (PGA) < 0.25 g, 93 with 0.25 g < PGA < 0.85 g. The hospitals had elevator failure rates as low as 0% and as high as 100%. A third survey describes damage qualitatively for six sites with PGA ≤ 0.25 and per‐site failure rates of 0% to perhaps 30%. Fragility functions are offered where the damage state is the loss of functionality of the elevator. The elevators in these surveys exhibit a median capacity of PGA ≈ 0.35 g with a logarithmic standard deviation of 0.40. Capacity is modestly sensitive to whether the elevator was installed before or after 1973. Using building‐specific intensity measures such as S_a(T₁) does not improve the fragility functions. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effect of heterogeneity on spatiotemporal variations of groundwater level in a bounded unconfined aquifer

Spatiotemporal variations of groundwater level due to a white noise recharge time series and a random transmissivity field in a bounded unconfined aquifer was studied. The analytical solutions for the variance and covariance of groundwater level were derived with non-stationary spectral analyses and superposition principle. It was found that the fluctuations of groundwater level are spatially non-stationary due to a fixed head boundary condition and temporal non-stationary at early time but gradually became stationary as time progresses due to effect of the initial condition. The variation in groundwater level is mainly caused by the random source/sink in the case of temporally random recharge and spatially random transmissivity. The effect of heterogeneity is to increase the variation of groundwater level and the maximum effect occurs close to the constant head boundary because of the linear mean hydraulic gradient. The heterogeneity also enhances the correlation of groundwater level, especially at large time intervals and small spatial distances.     

Stress orientation to 5 km depth in the basement below Basel (Switzerland) from borehole failure analysis

A vertical profile of maximum horizontal principal stress, SHmax, orientation to 5 km depth was obtained beneath the Swiss city of Basel from observations of wellbore failure derived from ultrasonic televiewer images obtained in two 1 km distant near-vertical boreholes: a 2755 m exploration well (OT2) imaged from 2550 m to 2753 m across the granitic basement-sediment interface at 2649 m; and a 5 km deep borehole (BS1) imaged entirely within the granite from 2569 m to 4992 m. Stress-related wellbore failure in the form of breakouts or drilling-induced tension fractures (DITFs) occurs throughout the depth range of the logs with breakouts predominant. Within the granite, DITFs are intermittently present, and breakouts more or less continuously present over all but the uppermost 100 m where they are sparse. The mean SHmax orientations from DITFs is 151 ± 13° whereas breakouts yield 143 ± 14°, the combined value weighted for frequency of occurrence being N144°E ± 14°. No marked depth dependence in mean SHmax orientation averaged over several hundred meters depth intervals is evident. This mean SHmax orientation for the granite is consistent with the results of the inversion of populations of focal mechanism solutions of earthquakes occurring between depths of 10–15 km within regions immediately to the north and south of Basel, and with the T-axis of events occurring within the reservoir (Deichmann and Ernst, this volume). DITFs and breakouts identified in OT2 above and below the sediment-basement interface suggest that a change in SHmax orientation to N115°E ± 12° within the Rotliegendes sandstone occurs near its interface with the basement. The origin of the 20–30° change is uncertain, as is its lateral extent. The logs do not extend higher than 80 m above the interface, and so the data do not define whether a further change in stress orientation occurs at the evaporites. Near-surface measurements taken within 50 km of Basel suggest a mean orientation of N–S, albeit with large variability, as do the orientation of hydrofractures at depths up to 850 m within and above the evaporite layers and an active salt diapir, also within 50 km of Basel. Thus, the available evidence supports the notion that the orientation of SHmax above the evaporites is on average more N–S oriented and thus differs from the NW–SE inferred for the basement from the BS1/OS2 wellbore failure data and the earthquake data. Changes in stress orientation with depth can have significant practical consequences for the development of an EGS reservoir, and serve to emphasise the importance of obtaining estimates from within the target rock mass.     

Investigating local variation in groundwater recharge along a topographic gradient, Walnut Creek, Iowa, USA

Groundwater recharge is an important component to hydrologic studies but is known to vary considerably across the landscape. The purpose of this study was to examine 4 years of water-level behavior in a transect of four water-table wells installed at Walnut Creek, Iowa, USA to evaluate how groundwater recharge varied along a topographic gradient. The amount of daily water-table rise (WTR) in the wells was summed at monthly and annual scales and estimates of specific yield (Sy) were used to convert the WTR to recharge. At the floodplain site, Sy was estimated from the ratio of WTR to total rainfall and in the uplands was based on the ratio of baseflow to WTR. In the floodplain, where the water table is shallow, recharge occurred throughout the year whenever precipitation occurred. In upland areas where the water table was deeper, WTR occurred in a stepped fashion and varied by season. Results indicated that the greatest amount of water-table rise over the 4-year period was observed in the floodplain (379 mm), followed by the upland (211 mm) and sideslopes (122 mm). Incorporating spatial variability in recharge in a watershed will improve groundwater resource evaluation and flow and transport modeling.     

A general-purpose parallel raster processing programming library test application using a geographic cellular automata model

A general-purpose parallel raster processing programming library (pRPL) was developed and applied to speed up a commonly used cellular automaton model with known tractability limitations. The library is suitable for use by geographic information scientists with basic programming skills, but who lack knowledge and experience of parallel computing and programming. pRPL is a general-purpose programming library that provides generic support for raster processing, including local-scope, neighborhood-scope, regional-scope, and global-scope algorithms as long as they are parallelizable. The library also supports multilayer algorithms. Besides the standard data domain decomposition methods, pRPL provides a spatially adaptive quad-tree-based decomposition to produce more evenly distributed workloads among processors. Data parallelism and task parallelism are supported, with both static and dynamic load-balancing. By grouping processors, pRPL also supports data–task hybrid parallelism, i.e., data parallelism within a processor group and task parallelism among processor groups. pSLEUTH, a parallel version of a well-known cellular automata model for simulating urban land-use change (SLEUTH), was developed to demonstrate full utilization of the advanced features of pRPL. Experiments with real-world data sets were conducted and the performance of pSLEUTH measured. We conclude not only that pRPL greatly reduces the development complexity of implementing a parallel raster-processing algorithm, it also greatly reduces the computing time of computationally intensive raster-processing algorithms, as demonstrated with pSLEUTH.     

The inclusion of differentially assessed lands in urban growth model calibration: a comparison of two approaches using SLEUTH

This research sought to understand the role that differentially assessed lands (lands in the United States given tax breaks in return for their guarantee to remain in agriculture) play in influencing urban growth. Our method was to calibrate the SLEUTH urban growth model under two different conditions. The first used an excluded layer that ignored such lands, effectively rendering them available for development. The second treated those lands as totally excluded from development. Our hypothesis was that excluding those lands would yield better metrics of fit with past data. Our results validate our hypothesis since two different metrics that evaluate goodness of fit both yielded higher values when differentially assessed lands are treated as excluded. This suggests that, at least in our study area, differential assessment, which protects farm and ranch lands for tenuous periods of time, has indeed allowed farmland to resist urban development. Including differentially assessed lands also yielded very different calibrated coefficients of growth as the model tried to account for the same growth patterns over two very different excluded areas. Excluded layer design can greatly affect model behavior. Since differentially assessed lands are quite common through the United States and are often ignored in urban growth modeling, the findings of this research can assist other urban growth modelers in designing excluded layers that result in more accurate model calibration and thus forecasting.     

A bundle adjustment approach with inner constraints for the scaled orthographic projection

Bundle adjustment is a method for simultaneously calculating both the interior and exterior orientation parameters of a set of images, and the object-space coordinates of the observed points. In the case of long focal length lenses and narrow field-of-view (FOV) imaging situations, collinearity based (perspective projection) algorithms may result in linear dependencies between parameters that cause solution instability. The use of a scaled orthographic projection model based on linear algebraic formulations was therefore adopted to reduce this risk. Using quaternions, a new mathematical model is derived that includes the partial derivatives as well as the inner constraint equations for a scaled orthographic bundle adjustment. The model was then tested using two image sets of a single, small vessel (about 6 m length) with a cube target of known dimensions at two distinct ranges; perspective solutions were also calculated for comparison. RMS residual errors of 0.74-0.78 pixels associated with the new method compare favorably to a residual error range of 0.59-0.74 pixels using a perspective bundle adjustment of the same target points. Relative precisions (as a ratio of target size) of between 1:1650 and 1:750 have been achieved at ranges of 375 m and 850 m, respectively, given comparisons with the known cube dimensions. A third image dataset consisting of a network of 16 images was solved with a 1:2200 relative precision showing the new method can successfully handle high redundancy. For the experiments that were conducted, the new method was found to produce less precise results than the perspective bundle solution for a FOV of 0.50-0.65° where the object fills 5-8% of the image. However, it was found to match the precision of the perspective model (with an uncalibrated camera) for a FOV of 0.20-0.30° where the object of interest fills only 1-2% of the full image.     

Hurricane effects on subtropical pine rocklands of the Florida Keys

We investigate the effects of Hurricane Wilma??s storm surge (23?C24 October 2005) on the dominant tree Pinus elliottii var densa (South Florida slash pine) and rare plant species in subtropical pine rocklands of the Lower Florida Keys. We examine the role of elevation on species abundance in 1995 (Hurricane Betsy in 1965), 2005 (Hurricane Georges in 1998), and 2008 (Hurricane Wilma in 2005) to investigate if hurricanes influence abundance by eliminating plants at lower elevation on Big Pine Key, the largest island in the Lower Florida Keys. We compare densities before and after Hurricane Wilma over the 2005?C2008 sampling period and examine the role of elevation on changes in pine and rare species densities three years after Hurricane Wilma. We use elevation to assess the impact of hurricanes because elevation determined whether a location was influenced by storm surge (maximum surge of 2 m) in the Lower Florida Keys, where pine rocklands occur at a maximum elevation of 3 m. In 1995 (30 years after a major storm), elevation did not explain the abundance of South Florida slash pine or Chamaecrista lineata, but explained significant variation in abundance of Chamaesyce deltoidea. The latter two species are rare herbaceous plants restricted to pine rocklands. In 2008, 3 years after Hurricane Wilma, the positive relationship between elevation and abundance was strongest for South Florida slash pine, C. deltoidea, and C. lineata. Effects of Hurricane Wilma were not significant for rare species with wider distribution, occurring in plant communities adjacent to pine rocklands and in disturbed rocklands. Our results suggest that hurricanes drive population dynamics of South Florida slash pine and rare species that occur exclusively in pine rocklands at higher elevations. Rare species restricted to pine rocklands showed dramatic declines after Hurricane Wilma and were eliminated at elevations <0.5 m. Widely distributed rare species did not show significant changes in density after Hurricane Wilma. Abundance increased with elevation for South Florida slash pine and C. lineata after the hurricane. In an environment influenced by sea level rise, concrete plans to conserve pine ecosystems are warranted. Results from this study will help define conservation strategies by strengthening predictive understanding of plant responses to disturbance in the backdrop of sea level rise.