Quantification of seismic potential failure modes in concrete dams

A comprehensive framework for potential failure modes (PFM) identification and quantification of concrete dams subjected to seismic excitation is presented. A quantifiable indicator of PFM is presented in the context of both linear and nonlinear analyses. As an illustrative example, a thin arch dam subjected to a set of ground motions at different seismic intensity levels is investigated and corresponding PFM quantified. An outcome of this analysis is the probabilistic‐based correlation between linear and nonlinear analyses and identification of the optimal intensity measure parameter. This study, is an adaptation and extension of well‐accepted procedures defined by the performance‐based earthquake engineering paradigm in buildings. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The seventh facet of uncertainty: wrong assumptions,unknowns and surprises in the dynamics of human–water systems

ABSTRACT

The scientific literature has focused on uncertainty as randomness, while limited credit has been given to what we call here the “seventh facet of uncertainty”, i.e. lack of knowledge. This paper identifies three types of lack of understanding: (i) known unknowns, which are things we know we don’t know; (ii) unknown unknowns, which are things we don’t know we don’t know; and (iii) wrong assumptions, things we think we know, but we actually don’t know. Here we discuss each of these with reference to the study of the dynamics of human–water systems, which is one of the main topics of Panta Rhei, the current scientific decade of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS), focusing on changes in hydrology and society. In the paper, we argue that interdisciplinary studies of socio-hydrological dynamics leading to a better understanding of human–water interactions can help in coping with wrong assumptions and known unknowns. Also, being aware of the existence of unknown unknowns, and their potential capability to generate surprises or black swans, suggests the need to complement top-down approaches, based on quantitative predictions of water-related hazards, with bottom-up approaches, based on societal vulnerabilities and possibilities of failure.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor S. Weijs     

Interpretation of transmissivity estimates from single-well pumping aquifer tests

Interpretation of single-well tests with the Cooper-Jacob method remains more reasonable than most alternatives. Drawdowns from 628 simulated single-well tests where transmissivity was specified were interpreted with the Cooper-Jacob straight-line method to estimate transmissivity. Error and bias as a function of vertical anisotropy, partial penetration, specific yield, and interpretive technique were investigated for transmissivities that ranged from 10 to 10,000 m(2)/d. Cooper-Jacob transmissivity estimates in confined aquifers were affected minimally by partial penetration, vertical anisotropy, or analyst. Cooper-Jacob transmissivity estimates of simulated unconfined aquifers averaged twice the known values. Transmissivity estimates of unconfined aquifers were not improved by interpreting results with an unconfined aquifer solution. Judicious interpretation of late-time data consistently improved estimates where transmissivity exceeded 250 m(2)/d in unconfined aquifers.     

The effects of boreal forest expansion on the summer Arctic frontal zone

Over the last 100?years, Arctic warming has resulted in a longer growing season in boreal and tundra ecosystems. This has contributed to a slow northward expansion of the boreal forest and a decrease in the surface albedo. Corresponding changes to the surface and atmospheric energy budgets have contributed to a broad region of warming over areas of boreal forest expansion. In addition, mesoscale and synoptic scale patterns have changed as a result of the excess energy at and near the surface. Previous studies have identified a relationship between the positioning of the boreal forest-tundra ecotone and the Arctic frontal zone in summer. This study examines the climate response to hypothetical boreal forest expansion and its influence on the summer Arctic frontal zone. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting model over the Northern Hemisphere, an experiment was performed to evaluate the atmospheric response to expansion of evergreen and deciduous boreal needleleaf forests into open shrubland along the northern boundary of the existing forest. Results show that the lower surface albedo with forest expansion leads to a local increase in net radiation and an average hemispheric warming of 0.6°C at and near the surface during June with some locations warming by 1–2°C. This warming contributes to changes in the meridional temperature gradient that enhances the Arctic frontal zone and strengthens the summertime jet. This experiment suggests that continued Northern Hemisphere high-latitude warming and boreal forest expansion might contribute to additional climate changes during the summer.     

Treatment of arsenic rich waters by the HDS process

Arsenic contaminated waters are not uncommon; indeed from naturally occurring contaminated waters through to those that are a direct consequence of human activities such as mining, all are affecting the quality of water resources worldwide. The ever increasing demands on natural water resources mean that the effective control of this toxic contaminant is paramount and this is reflected in the ever increasing global legislation.There are currently three mechanisms by which arsenic is commercially treated in effluents. These are physical separation processes such as reverse osmosis, precipitation/adsorption processes, some of which are bacterially assisted, and a whole variety of ion exchange processes, again with some bacterial enhancement. The choice of treatment is not only driven by cost but by the chemistry of the water and the water quality standard to be met.In this study a very high arsenic enriched groundwater, containing in excess of 25,000 µg/L arsenic, was treated by a typical treatment method through a continuously operated pilot plant. In the treatment, iron III salts were added to the influent in order to form precipitates with the arsenic and to form an adsorptive surface that would assist with treatment of the enriched water. This addition of iron III salts for the removal of arsenic is common practice in the water treatment industry as the resulting iron III arsenates are highly stable.However, results from the pilot plant show that the process was further enhanced by the addition of small amounts of hydrogen peroxide. Hydrogen peroxide is a powerful oxidising reagent and assists in ensuring the complete conversion of any arsenic III to arsenic V that was then effectively removed in the pilot plant. After treatment residual arsenic levels of 10 µg/L were obtained compared to 68 µg/L without oxidation reagent addition.     

Surface settlements at a soft soil site due to bedrock dewatering

Construction of a 16-m deep, 55-m wide, almost square, underground structure through 8-m of soft soils and 8-m of sandstone and siltstone led to the development of widespread settlements. The affected area extended to distances of over 200 m from the perimeter of the structure. The floor slab of the underground structure was not designed for water pressure. Thus, operation of the structure requires continuous pumping of seepage water collected at a sump located at the lowermost elevation within the structure. Subsurface investigation and monitoring data obtained over 5.75-year period following the construction of the structure indicated that the settlement resulted from consolidation of soft soils due to depressurization of an aquifer within the underlying bedrock caused by continuous dewatering needed for the operation of the structure. An analytical study was undertaken to project the long term settlement. A simple analytical model could be used to simulate the complex hydrogeological problem reasonably. The details of hydrogeologic setting, subsurface investigation and monitoring activities, and the analytical model for projecting long-term settlements are presented in this paper.     

Mapping and detection of land use change in a coal mining area using object-based image analysis

Object-based image analysis was used to map land use in the Panxie coal mining area, East China, where long-term underground coal mines have been exploited since the 1980s. A rule-based classification approach was developed for a Pleiades image to identify the desired land use classes, and the same rule-based classification strategies, after the threshold values had been modified slightly, were applied to the Landsat series images. Five land use classes were successfully captured with overall accuracies of between 80 and 94%. The classification approach was validated for its flexibility and robustness. Multitemporal classification results indicated that land use changed considerably in the Panxie coal mining area from 1989 to 2013. The urban, coal and coal gangue, and water areas increased rapidly in line with the growth in mine production. Urban areas increased from 9.38 to 20.92% and showed a tendency to increase around the coal mines. From 1989 to 2013 the coal and coal gangue area increased by 40-fold, from 0.02 to 0.58%. Similarly, the water area increased from 2.77 to 7.84% over this time period, mainly attributable to the spread of waterlogged areas. The waterlogged areas increased to about 2900 ha in 2013, which was about 80 times more than their area in 1989. In contrast, the area of cultivated land was negatively related to the increase in mine production and decreased from 73.11 to 57.25%. The results of this study provide a valuable basis for sustainable land management and environmental planning in the Panxie coal mining area.     

Local-scale characteristics of high-marsh communities next to developed and undeveloped shorelines in an ocean-dominated estuary, Murrells Inlet, SC

Anthropogenic alteration of terrestrial shorelines can have pronounced effects on marine environments at the upland-marsh boundary. Possible terrestrial development effects on several physical and biological variables of high-marsh habitats were examined along developed and undeveloped shorelines in an ocean-dominated, southeastern US estuary. Analyses of sediment characteristics suggested development of the upland boundary affected physical conditions within the high-marsh. For example, pore water salinities were greater along undeveloped shorelines during a non-drought period even after rain events. Significant floral and faunal differences also existed between shoreline treatments. Black needle rush stems were significantly taller and marsh periwinkle densities significantly greater, but eastern coffee bean snail densities were significantly reduced along developed shorelines. Benthic infaunal community abundance and composition also were significantly different between shoreline treatments with sand fly larvae, human pest precursors, either only present or present in greater densities along developed shorelines. Sediment respirometry experiments indicated significant differences in heterotrophic and autotrophic processes occurring between shoreline treatments. Greater sediment surface temperatures along developed shorelines provided one possible mechanism driving high-marsh responses to boundary alteration. The history and extent of shoreline development along with a tendency in ocean-dominated southeastern marshes to resist change likely influenced current ecological conditions within our high-marsh study areas. A greater understanding of the driving mechanisms producing localized effects on salt marshes and recognizing regional differences in marsh resistance to change will facilitate predictions of shoreline development consequences and help in proposing effective management strategies for coastal boundaries.     

Arsenic Management Through Well Modification and Simulation

Arsenic concentrations can be managed with a relatively simple strategy of grouting instead of completely destroying a selected interval of well. The strategy of selective grouting was investigated in Antelope Valley, California, where groundwater supplies most of the water demand. Naturally occurring arsenic typically exceeds concentrations of 10 µg/L in the water produced from these long-screened wells. The vertical distributions of arsenic concentrations in intervals of the aquifer contributing water to selected supply wells were characterized with depth-dependent water-quality sampling and flow logs. Arsenic primarily entered the lower half of the wells where lacustrine clay deposits and a deeper aquifer occurred. Five wells were modified by grouting from below the top of the lacustrine clay deposits to the bottom of the well, which reduced produced arsenic concentrations to less than 2 µg/L in four of the five wells. Long-term viability of well modification and reduction of specific capacity was assessed for well 4-54 with AnalyzeHOLE, which creates and uses axisymmetric, radial MODFLOW models. Two radial models were calibrated to observed borehole flows, drawdowns, and transmissivity by estimating hydraulic-conductivity values in the aquifer system and gravel packs of the original and modified wells. Lithology also constrained hydraulic-conductivity estimates as regularization observations. Well encrustations caused as much as 2 µg/L increase in simulated arsenic concentration by reducing the contribution of flow from the aquifer system above the lacustrine clay deposits. Simulated arsenic concentrations in the modified well remained less than 3 µg/L over a 20-year period.     

Dissolved Organic Carbon in Groundwater Overlain by Irrigated Sugarcane

Elevated dissolved organic carbon (DOC) has been detected in groundwater beneath irrigated sugarcane on the Burdekin coastal plain of tropical northeast Australia. The maximum value of 82 mg/L is to our knowledge the highest DOC reported for groundwater beneath irrigated cropping systems. More than half of the groundwater sampled in January 2004 (n = 46) exhibited DOC concentrations greater than 30 mg/L. DOC was progressively lower in October 2004 and January 2005, with a total decrease greater than 90% indicating varying load(s) to the aquifer. It was hypothesized that the elevated DOC found in this groundwater system is sourced at or near the soil surface and supplied to the aquifer via vertical recharge following above average rainfall. Possible sources of DOC include organic‐rich sugar mill by‐products applied as fertilizer and/or sugarcane sap released during harvest. CFC‐12 vertical flow rates supported the hypothesis that elevated DOC (>40 mg/L) in the groundwater results from recharge events in which annual precipitation exceeds 1500 mm/year (average = 960 mm/year). Occurrence of elevated DOC concentrations, absence of electron acceptors (O₂ and NO₃^–) and both Fe²⁺ and Mn²⁺ greater than 1 mg/L in shallow groundwater suggest that the DOC compounds are chemically labile. The consequence of high concentrations of labile DOC may be positive (e.g., denitrification) or negative (e.g., enhanced metal mobility and biofouling), and highlights the need to account for a wider range of water quality parameters when considering the impacts of land use on the ecology of receiving waters and/or suitability of groundwater for irrigated agriculture.