Have applications of continuous rainfall–runoff simulation realized the vision for process‐based flood frequency analysis?

Keith Beven was amongst the first to propose and demonstrate a combination of conceptual rainfall–runoff modelling and stochastically generated rainfall data in what is known as the ‘continuous simulation’ approach for flood frequency analysis. The motivations included the potential to establish better links with physical processes and to avoid restrictive assumptions inherent in existing methods applied in design flood studies. Subsequently, attempts have been made to establish continuous simulation as a routine method for flood frequency analysis, particularly in the UK. The approach has not been adopted universally, but numerous studies have benefitted from applications of continuous simulation methods. This paper asks whether industry has yet realized the vision of the pioneering research by Beven and others. It reviews the generic methodology and illustrates applications of the original vision for a more physically realistic approach to flood frequency analysis through a set of practical case studies, highlighting why continuous simulation was useful and appropriate in each case. The case studies illustrate how continuous simulation has helped to offer users of flood frequency analysis more confidence about model results by avoiding (or exposing) bad assumptions relating to catchment heterogeneity, inappropriateness of assumptions made in (UK) industry‐standard design event flood estimation methods, and the representation of engineered or natural dynamic controls on flood flows. By implementing the vision for physically realistic analysis of flood frequency through continuous simulation, each of these examples illustrates how more relevant and improved information was provided for flood risk decision‐making than would have been possible using standard methods. They further demonstrate that integrating engineered infrastructure into flood frequency analysis and assessment of environmental change are also significant motivations for adopting the continuous simulation approach in practice. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Entrainment and emplacement of englacial debris bands near the margin of Storglaciären,Sweden

Internal structure, stable isotope composition and tritium concentration were measured in and around debris‐bearing ice at the margin of Storglaciären, where englacial debris bands have previously been inferred to form by thrusting. Two types of debris bands were distinguished: (i) an unsorted diamicton band that is laterally continuous for more than 200 m, and (ii) well‐sorted sand and gravel bands that are lenticular and discontinuous. Above‐background tritium levels and enrichment of δ¹⁸ O and δD in ice from the diamicton band indicate entrainment by basal freeze‐on since 1952. Isotopic enrichment and tritium‐free ice in the sandy debris bands also indicate entrainment in freezing water, but prior to 1952. The lenticular cross‐section, sorting and stratification of the sandy bands suggest that they were deposited englacially. The basally accreted diamicton band has been elevated tens of metres above the bed and presently overlies the englacially deposited sandy bands, suggesting that the stratigraphy has been disrupted. Three interpretations could account for these observations: (i) thrusting of fast‐moving ice over slow, marginal ice uplifting recently accreted basal ice along the fault; (ii) folding near the margin, elevating young basal ice over older basal and englacial ice; and (iii) debris‐band formation by an unknown mechanism and subsequent contamination of ice geochemical properties by meltwater flow through debris bands. Although none of these interpretations is consistent with all measurements, folding is most compatible with observations and local ice‐flow kinematics.     

Hydrologic‐response‐driven sediment transport at a regional scale,process‐based simulation

Assessing hydrologically driven erosion at regional scales from a process‐based perspective presents a significant challenge. Most regional‐scale erosion assessments are based upon a simple steady‐state hydrology foundation. For this study, the sediment transport version of the physics‐based Integrated Hydrology Model (InHM), excited by synthetically generated rainfall, was employed to assess long‐term hydrologically driven erosion for a regional‐scale island boundary‐value problem. The spatiotemporal dynamics of runoff generation, erosion, and deposition are illustrated through saturation, water depth, velocity, and sediment concentration results. The simulations demonstrate that process‐based assessment for concept development is both feasible and tractable at regional spatial and human time scales. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

East-west trending magnetic anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere of Mars: Modeling analysis and interpretation

Maps of the vector components of the martian crustal magnetic field over the strongly magnetized Terra Cimmeria/Sirenum region are constructed using Mars Global Surveyor magnetometer data. Although pronounced east-west trending anomalies are present on the radial and north field component maps at the mapping altitude (∼360-380 km), these trends are much less prominent at the lower aerobraking altitude (∼90-150 km). Comparisons with similar maps produced using artificial data at the aerobraking altitude indicate that elongated sources in this region may have maximum lengths along the martian surface of ∼500 km and maximum aspect ratios of ∼2. Iterative forward modeling of several relatively isolated anomalies in the mapped region yields paleomagnetic pole positions consistent with those estimated in previous studies of other anomalies using mapping phase and science phasing orbit data. On this basis, it is inferred that sources in the studied region are most probably magnetized primarily in northward or southward directions. Using this additional constraint, iterative forward modeling is then applied to determine a magnetization distribution that is consistent with data at both the aerobraking altitude and the mapping altitude. The model magnetization distribution, which includes 41 discrete sources, again indicates no highly elongated sources. An examination of surface geology in the region as well as a consideration of the global distribution of anomalies suggests that magmatic intrusions (e.g., subsurface dike swarms), cooling in the presence of water, are the most likely sources of the magnetic anomalies.     

Validation of very high cloud droplet number concentrations in air masses transported thousands of kilometres over the ocean

The microstructure of orographic clouds related to the aerosol present was studied during the second Aerosol Characterisation Experiment (ACE‐2). Very high cloud droplet number concentrations (almost 3000 cm⁻³) were observed. These high concentrations occurred when clouds formed on a hill slope at Tenerife in polluted air masses originating in Europe that had transported the order of 1000 km over the Atlantic Ocean. The validity of the measured droplet number concentrations was investigated by comparing with measurements of the aerosol upstream of the cloud and cloud interstitial aerosol. Guided by distributions of the ratios between the measurements, three criteria of typically 30% in maximum deviation were applied to the measurements to test their validity. Agreement was found for 88% of the cases. The validated data set spans droplet number concentrations of 150–3000 cm⁻³. The updraught velocity during the cloud formation was estimated to 2.2 m s⁻¹ by model calculations, which is typical of cumuliform clouds. The results of the present study are discussed in relation to cloud droplet number concentrations previously reported in the literature. The importance of promoting the mechanistic understanding of the aerosol/cloud interaction and the use of validation procedures of cloud microphysical parameters is stressed in relation to the assessment of the indirect climatic effect of aerosols.     

Securing Indigenous politics: A critique of the vulnerability and adaptation approach to the human dimensions of climate change in the Canadian Arctic

Over the past decade research examining the human dimensions of climatic change in the Arctic has expanded significantly and has become the dominant framework through which the relations between northern peoples and climatic change are understood by scholars, policy makers, political leaders, and the media. This paper critically examines the assumptions, exclusions, and orientations that characterize this broad literature, and suggests revising and expanding the terms upon which it is carried out. It focuses in particular on the exclusion of colonialism from the study of human vulnerability and adaptation to climatic change, the framing of Indigenous peoples and communities in terms of the local and the traditional, and the ways in which efforts to improve the lives of northern Indigenous peoples risk perpetuating colonial relations. The paper argues that these exclusions and orientations lead scholars to systematically overlook the immense importance of resource extraction and shipping as human dimensions of climatic change in the Canadian Arctic, and it examines the implications of such oversights.