Implications of model uncertainty for the mapping of hillslope‐scale soil erosion predictions

An integrated modelling approach (MIRSED) which utilizes the process‐based soil erosion model WEPP (Water Erosion Prediction Project) is presented for the assessment of hillslope‐scale soil erosion at five sites throughout England and Wales. The methodology draws upon previous uncertainty analysis of the WEPP hillslope soil erosion model by the authors to qualify model results within an uncertainty framework. A method for incorporating model uncertainty from a range of sources is discussed as a first step towards using and learning from results produced through the GLUE (Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation) technique. Results are presented and compared to available observed data, which illustrate that levels of uncertainty are significant and must be taken into account if a meaningful understanding of output from models such as WEPP is to be achieved. Furthermore, the collection of quality, observed data is underlined for two reasons: as an essential tool in the development of soil erosion modelling and also to allow further constraint of model uncertainty. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

QUEST on DASI: a South Pole CMB polarization experiment

QUEST on DASI is a ground-based, high-sensitivity, high-resolution (ℓ_max2500) experiment designed to map CMB polarization at 100 and 150 GHz and to measure the power spectra from E-modes, B-modes from lensing of the CMB, and B-modes from primordial gravitational waves. The experiment comprises a 2.6 m Cassegrain optical system, equipped with an array of 62 polarization-sensitive bolometers (PSBs), located at the South Pole. The instrument is designed to minimize systematic effects; features include differencing of pairs of orthogonal PSBs within a single feed, a rotatable achromatic waveplate, and axisymmetric rotatable optics. In addition the South Pole location allows both repeatable and highly controlled observations. QUEST on DASI will commence operation in early 2005.     

A feather hydrogen isoscape for Mexico

Developing useful biological isoscapes for areas of the world is a priority. This is the case for Mexico that hosts a large percentage of North America's Neotropical migrant birds. Here we investigated the use of House Sparrow (Passer domesticus) feathers to create a spatially explicit feather deuterium isoscape for that country using samples (n = 461) that were collected across Mexico. Considerable and useful spatial hydrogen isotopic structure was observed, suggesting that isotopes may be a potential forensic tool for evaluating origins of Mexican derived fauna and flora. The most positive feather δD values occurred in the northeast and most negative in the south-central part of the country, roughly matching δD patterns observed in groundwater. A weak negative isotopic relationship was found with altitude in both the Pacific and Atlantic drainage systems. The most parsimonious model describing isotopic spatial variation in feathers between 300 and 3000 m a.s.l. included groundwater δD (δD_gw; precipitation proxy), sex, amount of precipitation, and the coefficient of variation in amount of precipitation. Overall, δD_gw was a poor predictor of sparrow δD_f values for all of Mexico. However, this relationship was considerably strengthened when we considered sex separately, removed the Baja peninsula from our sample, and considered the Atlantic and Pacific drainage basins separately. The strongest relationship between δD_gw and δD_f was found for female sparrows in the Atlantic drainage basin (r² = 0.464). We recommend that researchers interested in inferring origins of migratory birds and other animals in Mexico create species specific isotopic basemaps that may be guided by the isotopic patterns we have observed for House Sparrows and groundwater.     

Potential Salinity and Temperature Futures for the Chesapeake Bay Using a Statistical Downscaling Spatial Disaggregation Framework

Estuaries are productive and ecologically important ecosystems, incorporating environmental drivers from watersheds, rivers, and the coastal ocean. Climate change has potential to modify the physical properties of estuaries, with impacts on resident organisms. However, projections from general circulation models (GCMs) are generally too coarse to resolve important estuarine processes. Here, we statistically downscaled near-surface air temperature and precipitation projections to the scale of the Chesapeake Bay watershed and estuary. These variables were linked to Susquehanna River streamflow using a water balance model and finally to spatially resolved Chesapeake Bay surface temperature and salinity using statistical model trees. The low computational cost of this approach allowed rapid assessment of projected changes from four GCMs spanning a range of potential futures under a high CO₂ emission scenario, for four different downscaling methods. Choice of GCM contributed strongly to the spread in projections, but choice of downscaling method was also influential in the warmest models. Models projected a ~2–5.5 °C increase in surface water temperatures in the Chesapeake Bay by the end of the century. Projections of salinity were more uncertain and spatially complex. Models showing increases in winter-spring streamflow generated freshening in the Upper Bay and tributaries, while models with decreased streamflow produced salinity increases. Changes to the Chesapeake Bay environment have implications for fish and invertebrate habitats, as well as migration, spawning phenology, recruitment, and occurrence of pathogens. Our results underline a potentially expanded role of statistical downscaling to complement dynamical approaches in assessing climate change impacts in dynamically challenging estuaries.     

A requiem for the IFQ in US fisheries?

Despite their apparent economic benefits to harvesters, individual fishing quotas (IFQs) have only been adopted in three US fisheries: Mid-Atlantic surf clam and ocean quahog; South Atlantic wreckfish; and, North Pacific halibut and sablefish. During the 1996 reauthorization of the Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act, Congress temporarily blocked implementation of additional IFQ programs in US fisheries. In this paper, we argue that because of the emergence of an alternative, the cooperative, it is unlikely that new IFQs will be adopted in federally managed US fisheries. From an economic perspective, cooperatives offer the advantage of eliminating production externalities that may remain under an IFQ program with relatively large owner classes. More significantly, development of IFQ programs appears to be increasingly overwhelmed by the proliferation of both equity concerns and seemingly interminable rent-seeking behavior — both issues that can effectively block adoption of IFQs. Ironically (and paradoxically?), by reducing the scope of the equity issues acknowledged, the cooperative alternative narrows the pool of claimants and modifies the behavior of the remainder, making implementation more likely. A further irony exists in that IFQs are widely thought to be best designed at the local/regional level while part of the appeal of the cooperative model is that it appears to shortcut the often protracted nature of the local/regional political process by relying on direct intervention from Washington, DC, in the form of actions by Congress or the Justice Department.     

Quantitative evaluation of the seasonal variations in climate model cloud regimes

An extended cloud-clustering method to assess the seasonal variation of clouds is applied to five CMIP5 models. The seasonal variation of the total cloud radiative effect (CRE) is dominated by variations in the relative frequency of occurrence of the different cloud regimes. Seasonal variations of the CRE within the individual regimes contribute much less. This is the case for both observations, models and model errors. The error in the seasonal variation of cloud regimes, and its breakdown into mean amplitude and time varying components, are quantified with a new metric. The seasonal variation of the CRE of the cloud regimes is relatively well simulated by the models in the tropics, but less well in the extra-tropics. The stratocumulus regime has the largest seasonal variation of shortwave CRE in the tropics, despite having a small magnitude in the climatological mean. Most of the models capture the temporal variation of the CRE reasonably well, with the main differences between models coming from the variation in amplitude. In the extra-tropics, most models fail to correctly represent both the amplitude and time variation of the CRE of congestus, frontal and stratocumulus regimes. The annual mean climatology of the CRE and its amplitude in the seasonal variation are both underestimated for the anvil regime in the tropics, the cirrus regime and the congestus regime in the extra-tropics. The models in this study that best capture the seasonal variation of the cloud regimes tend to have higher climate sensitivities.     

Aerial electromagnetic sounding of the lithosphere of Venus

Electromagnetic (EM) investigation depths are larger on Venus than Earth due to the dearth of water in rocks, in spite of higher temperatures. Whistlers detected by Venus Express proved that lightning is present, so the Schumann resonances ～10–40 Hz may provide a global source of electromagnetic energy that penetrates ～10–100 km. Electrical conductivity will be sensitive at these depths to temperature structure and hence thermal lithospheric thickness. Using 1D analytic and 2D numerical models, we demonstrate that the Schumann resonances—transverse EM waves in the ground-ionosphere waveguide—remain sensitive at all altitudes to the properties of the boundaries. This is in marked contrast to other EM methods in which sensitivity to the ground falls off sharply with altitude. We develop a 1D analytical model for aerial EM sounding that treats the electrical properties of the subsurface (thermal gradient, water content, and presence of conductive crust) and ionosphere, and the effects of both random errors and biases that can influence the measurements. We initially consider specified 1D lithospheric thicknesses 100–500 km, but we turn to 2D convection models with Newtonian temperature-dependent viscosity to provide representative vertical and lateral temperature variations. We invert for the conductivity-depth structure and then temperature gradient. For a dry Venus, we find that the error on temperature gradient obtained from any single local measurement is ～100%—perhaps enough to distinguish “thick” vs. “thin” lithospheres. When averaging over thousands of kilometers, however, the standard deviation of the recovered thermal gradient is within the natural variability of the convection models, <25%. A “wet” interior (hundreds of ppm H₂O) limits EM sounding depths using the Schumann resonances to <20 km, and errors are too large to estimate lithospheric properties. A 30-km conductive crust has little influence on the dry-interior models because the Schumann penetration depths are significantly larger. We conclude that EM sounding of the interior of Venus is feasible from a 55-km high balloon. Lithospheric thickness can be measured if the upper-mantle water content is low. If H₂O at hundreds of ppm is present, the deeper, temperature-sensitive structure is screened, but the “wet” nature of the upper mantle, as well as structure of the upper crust, is revealed.     

Keck II spectroscopy of mHz quasi-periodic oscillations in Hercules X-1

We present Keck II spectroscopy of optical mHz quasi-periodic oscillations (QPOs) in the light curve of the X-ray pulsar binary Hercules X-1. In the power spectrum it appears as 'peaked noise', with a coherency ∼2, a central frequency of 35 mHz and a peak-to-peak amplitude of 5 per cent. However, the dynamic power spectrum shows it to be an intermittent QPO, with a lifetime of ∼100 s, as expected if the lifetime of the orbiting material is equal to the thermal time-scale of the inner disc. We have decomposed the spectral time series into constant and variable components and used blackbody fits to the resulting spectra to characterize the spectrum of the QPO variability and constrain possible production sites. We find that the spectrum of the QPO is best fitted by a small hot region, possibly the inner regions of the accretion disc, where the ballistic accretion stream impacts on to the disc. The lack of any excess power around the QPO frequency in the X-ray power spectrum, created using simultaneous light curves from RXTE , implies that the QPO is not simply reprocessed X-ray variability.