Projected changes in reported campylobacteriosis and cryptosporidiosis rates as a function of climate change: a New Zealand study

Two pathogens whose reported incidence rates may alter under climate change and variability were selected for study: the bacterium Campylobacter and the protozoan oocyst Cryptosporidium. Both are of particular importance in New Zealand, given its extensive and intensive agricultural farming systems, and therefore to other agriculturally-based economies. Local and international studies have indicated that rates of illnesses associated with these pathogens (campylobacteriosis and cryptosporidiosis) may increase as temperature rises and as rainfall becomes more intense. An existing calibrated linear SIR (Susceptible-Ill-Recovered) model was used to make predictions of the proportional change in the reported rates of these two zoonoses. This method uses analytical solutions of the SIR model and a simple exponential approach to describe the temporal changes in pathogen contact rates—and hence of reported disease rates. These changes reflect climate change impacts only and do not consider adaptation or mitigation measures. Projections cannot be made of the actual-but-unknown-illness rates because of under-reporting throughout the country. The SIR model outputs provide projected changes in reported disease incidence as a function of temperature and rainfall for the years 2015, 2040 and 2090. These are calculated for three climate change scenarios: low (B1), medium (A1B) and high (A2) emissions of greenhouse gases and for four seasons. Projections show the potential for substantial changes in reported rates by the year 2090 across New Zealand, with children most at-risk. Maximum increases in reported illness rates tend to occur in summer when pathogen contact rates are greatest. Average annual rates of increase of reported campylobacteriosis are predicted to rise by as much as 20 % and by 36 % for cryptosporidiosis (children, A2 scenario, 2090). To our knowledge, this is the first time that SIR modelling has been coupled with climate change projections.     

Optical and infrared observations of the Centaur 1997 CU26

Minor planet 1997 CU₂₆ is a Centaur, and is probably undergoing dynamical evolution inwards from the Kuiper Belt. We present optical and infrared ( VRIJHK ) photometry which gives mean colours of V − R =0.46±0.02, V − I =1.02±0.02, V − J =1.74±0.02, V − H =2.15±0.02 and V − K =2.25±0.02. The resulting relative reflectance spectrum lies between those of Chiron and Pholus (although closer to that of Chiron). A 1.6–2.6 μm spectrum confirms the broad absorption feature at 2.05 μm associated with water ice reported by Brown et al. 1997 CU₂₆ displays no significant light curve variation and (unlike Chiron) has no observable coma. We place an upper limit to the dust production rate of 1.5 kg s⁻¹. J -band data taken at phase angles of 1.°7 to 4.°0 give a phase parameter of G _J =0.36±0.1, and are consistent with a phase parameter of G =0.15 in the V band (a value often assigned to low-albedo objects when no other information is available) if we assume a phase reddening of 0.017 mag deg⁻¹ in the J band. We find V (1, α =4.°1) =7.022±0.02, from which we deduce, by assuming G =0.15±0.1, an absolute visual magnitude of H _V =6.64±0.04.     

Vertical distributions of chlorophyll in deep, warm monomictic lakes

The factors affecting vertical distributions of chlorophyll fluorescence were examined in four temperate, warm monomictic lakes. Each of the lakes (maximum depth >80 m) was sampled over 2 years at intervals from monthly to seasonal. Profiles were taken of chlorophyll fluorescence (as a proxy for algal biomass), temperature and irradiance, as well as integrated samples from the surface mixed layer for chlorophyll a (chl a) and nutrient concentrations in each lake. Depth profiles of chlorophyll fluorescence were also made along transects of the longest axis of each lake. Chlorophyll fluorescence maxima occurred at depths closely correlated with euphotic depth (r ² = 0.67, P < 0.01), which varied with nutrient status of the lakes. While seasonal thermal density stratification is a prerequisite for the existence of a deep chlorophyll maximum (DCM), our study provides evidence that the depth of light penetration largely dictates the DCM depth during stratification. Reduction in water clarity through eutrophication can cause a shift in phytoplankton distributions from a DCM in spring or summer to a surface chlorophyll maximum within the surface mixed layer when the depth of the euphotic zone (z _eu) is consistently shallower than the depth of the surface mixed layer (z _SML). Trophic status has a key role in determining vertical distributions of chlorophyll in the four lakes, but does not appear to disrupt the annual cycle of maximum chlorophyll in winter.     

Azimuthal impact directions from oblique impact crater morphology

Planetary impact craters have a high degree of radial symmetry. This hampers efforts to identify the azimuthal impact direction for most craters – the radially symmetric component of an impact crater swamps any asymmetries that may be present. We demonstrate how the asymmetric component can be isolated and the direction of the asymmetries quantified using a two-dimensional eigenfunction expansion over a circular domain. The complex coefficients of expansion describe the magnitude and phase (angular alignment) of each term. From the analysis of hypervelocity impact craters formed in the laboratory, with impact angles ranging from 0° to 50° from the surface normal, we show that asymmetries which reveal the impact direction are still present at just 10° from the surface normal, and that the phase of one complex coefficient of expansion, c ₁₁, indicates the impact direction. Analysis of the lunar crater Hadley shows bilateral symmetry in the radially asymmetric component, which may be due to oblique impact. The 31-km lunar ray crater Kepler has morphological features that indicate the azimuthal impact direction. Coefficient c ₁₁ gives an azimuthal impact direction similar to that expected from the morphology, although post-impact gravitational collapse and slumping obscure the result to some degree. Ray craters may provide a means of testing the method for smaller 'simple' craters when data are available.     

Measurement requirements for a Near-Earth Asteroid impact mitigation demonstration mission

A concept for an Impact Mitigation Preparation Mission, called Don Quijote, is to send two spacecrafts to a Near-Earth Asteroid (NEA): an Orbiter and an Impactor. The Impactor collides with the asteroid while the Orbiter measures the resulting change in the asteroid's orbit, by means of a Radio Science Experiment (RSE) carried out before and after the impact. Three parallel Phase A studies on Don Quijote were carried out for the European Space Agency: the research presented here reflects the outcomes of the study by QinetiQ. We discuss the mission objectives with regard to the prioritisation of payload instruments, with emphasis on the interpretation of the impact. The Radio Science Experiment is described and it is examined how solar radiation pressure may increase the uncertainty in measuring the orbit of the target asteroid. It is determined that to measure the change in orbit accurately a thermal IR spectrometer is mandatory, to measure the Yarkovsky effect. The advantages of having a laser altimeter are discussed. The advantages of a dedicated wide-angle impact camera are discussed and the field-of-view is initially sized through a simple model of the impact.     

The dust environment at Titan

To explain the observed abundances of CO₂ in Titan's atmosphere, a relatively high water deposition into the atmosphere needs to be invoked due to the importance of H₂O photolysis in CO₂ production. A likely source of H₂O is icy dust particles from space. This paper considers the direct dust input to Titan's atmosphere from the interplanetary environment, and also ejecta particles from micrometeoroid impacts with the icy satellites Hyperion, Iapetus and Phoebe. It is found that the likely mass influx to Titan is 10^–16 to 10^–15 kg m^–2 s^–1. This mass influx is an order of magnitude too low to explain the observed levels of CO₂ in Titan's atmosphere in the context of a recent photochemical model. This leads one to speculate as to the likelihood of one large impact to Titan in the recent past;i.e., that the atmosphere is not in equilibrium but is cnrrently losing CO₂.     

An easy-to-use Model for the Optical Thickness and Ambient Illumination within Cometary Dust Comae

We define a procedure which allows estimation of the optical thickness of a cometarydust coma and the ambient illumination of the nucleus for any given comet, if estimatesof the nucleus radius and the dust activity (Afρ) are available. The calculation isperformed for a singly scattering coma with a cos(ϑ) distribution of dust overits day side. We find that the ambient illumination is of the same order as the incidentsunlight if the optical thickness is of order one. The optical thickness increases, all elseequal, linearly with the nucleus radius. Therefore the effect of the presence of the comamay be neglected for small (≈ 1 km diameter) comets, but is important forcomets such as 1P/Halley and Hale–Bopp.