Vertical tilt structure of East Asian trough and its interannual variation mechanism in boreal winter

Vertical tilt structure of the East Asian trough (EAT) and its interannual variation mechanism in boreal winter are studied using NCEP/NCAR, ERA40, and NCEP/DOE reanalyses. A vertical tilt index (VTI) is defined as the mean slope of vertical trough line on the longitude-height cross section to describe the tilting extent of the EAT, with high index indicating a more west-tilted trough and vice versa. The VTI series derived from the three reanalysis datasets are highly correlated with each other during the corresponding periods. A significant positive correlation is found between the VTI and the zonal range of the vertical trough line. Based on the close relation, a possible physical mechanism is proposed to explain the interannual variation of VTI. It demonstrates that positive (negative) temperature anomalies within the mean zonal range of the EAT result in expansion (contraction) of the zonal range and lead to high (low) VTI years. The composite analyses based on the three reanalysis datasets well support the proposed mechanism. Furthermore, the general relationship between the VTI and the zonal temperature gradient is discussed based on the proposed mechanism. It is revealed that the asymmetric change of temperature gradient on the western and eastern sides of the EAT plays an important role in the variation of VTI, which suggests that the tilting extent of the EAT is strongly affected by the two-order zonal change of temperature instead of the zonal temperature gradient (i.e., one-order change). Climate variability not only in the simultaneous winter but also in the following spring and summer over East Asia is closely related to the variation of the VTI. This study on the vertical tilting of the EAT may enrich knowledge of the East Asian winter monsoon and the climate variability over East Asia and may be helpful in improving the regional climate prediction in East Asia.     

中国夏季和冬季极端干旱年代际变化及成因分析

依据1961～2009年中国区域540个气象站的夏、冬季气温和降水数据,首先采用气候变化趋势转折判别模型（简称PLFIM）分析了中国区域8个分区夏、冬季气温和降水的年代际变化,而后利用PDSI干旱指数研究了夏、冬季极端干旱在年代际尺度上的时空变化特征及其成因。结果表明:1961～2009年中国夏季极端干旱发生率北方大于南方,冬季则为在东部多而在西部少。夏季和冬季极端干旱发生概率在最后一次年代际转折后都呈增加趋势。在区域尺度上,夏季东北、华北和西北地区增加明显,冬季东北、华北、华南、西南地区增加显著。其中,降水在20世纪90年代以前的极端干旱变化中起主导作用,而后由于气候变暖所引起的极端干旱增加趋势逐渐增大,与降水变化的作用相互叠加。     

Changes in pick beginning date and frost damage risk of tea tree in Longjing tea-producing area

We analyze the pick beginning date and frost damage risk trends of Jiukeng, Longjing-43, and Wuniuzao tea trees with time, using meteorological data from 12 station pairs over the period 1971–2010 in the Longjing tea-producing area. The pick beginning date of Jiukeng, Longjing-43, and Wuniuzao varieties had no statistically significant trends before 1990. The pick beginning date of Jiukeng variety had statistically significant decreasing trends after 1990, and there were no statistically significant trends in the start date after 1990 for Longjing-43 and Wuniuzao varieties. The average pick beginning dates of Longjing-43 and Wuniuzao varieties before 1990 are later than those after 1990 by 3.8–4.8 and 2.0–3.1 days, respectively. We used the trend of difference between beginning date of tea plucking (BDTP) and 0 °C terminal date to analyze frost damage risk trends. Eleven counties had no statistically significant frost damage risk trends for Jiukeng, Longjing-43, and Wuniuzao varieties, leaving only one county with statistically significant trends.     

开花后淹水对小麦旗叶叶肉细胞及产量的影响

选用小麦品种济麦20和泰农18,采用池栽补灌淹水方法,研究开花期及灌浆期3、6、9、12d淹水对小麦旗叶叶肉细胞形态及籽粒产量的影响.开花期淹水,减少叶肉细胞的裂解,延缓了旗叶衰老;灌浆期淹水,则加剧了叶肉细胞的裂解,旗叶的衰老加速.除淹水3d外,两时期6-12 d淹水均引起籽粒产量降低.产量降低的主导因素是粒数的减少,其次是粒重的降低.     

新型随机地震动模型

在研究结构的随机地震反应时，要用大量的符合场地条件的地震记录作为输入数据。但强震历史记录却不是每个地区都有的，因此根据符合场地条件的现有地震记录建立随机地震动模型具有重要意义。本文利用中国抗震规范2001版修正选取的样本波作为目标波，考虑了幅值和频率的双重非平稳性，建立了新型随机地震动模型——改进的时变ARMA模型随机地震动模型。通过使用残差的卡方检验法，对多种非平稳ARMA模型生成的模拟波进行检验；同时又比较丁模拟波与目标波的功率谱密度图和反应谱图。结果证明：此法能够更精确地反映不同场地条件地震动的频谱和幅值的真实内容，从而建立符合目标场地条件的更为有效的模拟地震动，为相关研究与工程设计架起一座桥梁。     

漫湾和大朝山电站水库诱发地震活动及其构造环境研究

位于云南澜沧江中段的漫湾和大朝山两电站水库位置相邻、大小相仿,坝高和库容均达到可能诱发地震的规模,都处于构造复杂的逆断层环境,但蓄水后库区地震活动水平明显不同,其中漫湾水库有明显的诱发地震活动,而大朝山水库蓄水5年来库区未出现地震活动明显增强现象.通过对漫湾和大朝山两电站水库蓄水后库区地震活动、库区地层和断层特点、地震活动与库区地层和断层特点的关系进行分析,认为沿断层的库水渗透、岩溶塌陷、水库规模、高应力环境、规模较大断裂的通过和断层力学环境等,并不是这两个电站水库诱发地震活动的主要因素;而马街、腰街、哨街一带发育有NE和NW向断层,且多为正断层性质,断面多倾向水库一侧,这些断层的破裂可能是诱发水库地震集中发生的重要原因.     

基于多轨道卫星观测数据分析尼泊尔地震长波辐射特征

综合已经在红外异常提取中应用的涡度和RST（Robust Satellite Technique）算法优点,提出了红外异常指数算法.并基于长时间尺度的中国静止卫星FY-2D和美国极轨卫星NOAA长波辐射数据,应用RST和异常指数算法,分别对2015年4月25日尼泊尔M_S8.1和5月12日M_S7.5地震前后卫星长波辐射变化特征进行了分析,开展了多轨道、多时空分辨率长波辐射同步地震热红外特征研究.结果表明,运用RST算法,两次地震前后,未能在震中周围发现明显的长波辐射异常.运用异常指数算法：（1）对于NOAA卫星,4月15日在M_S8.1地震震中以西出现热红外异常,到4月24日震中以西约100 km处出现异常最大值,随后逐渐消失.5月10日在M_S7.5地震震中以东约200 km发现异常;（2）在NOAA卫星长波辐射异常发现最大值当日,采用FY-2D卫星每3 h的数据分析可发现红外异常的动态演化过程,弥补NOAA卫星分辨率不足.以上结果为利用多轨道卫星监测地震热辐射变化提供了依据.

     

用电测深法在水压致裂实验中确定岩石破裂方向的实验研究

1.测点布设及观测方法实验场地位于福建省南靖县汤坑盆地中央。盆地内分布有F_1、F_2、F_3和F_44组断裂,其中F_1为张性兼压扭性断裂,F_2为扭性断裂,F_3为张扭性断裂,F_4为压扭性断裂(图1)。     

数字与模拟地震台网记录的震相特征与地震参数对比分析

本文对辽宁数字与模拟地震台网从1998年12月至1999年5月记录到震波特征、地震参数进行初步的比较与分析。