Accessibility Futures

This study uses accessibility as a performance measure to evaluate a matrix of future land use and network scenarios for planning purposes. The concept of accessibility dates to the 1950s, but this type of application to transportation planning is new. Previous research has established the coevolution of transportation and land use, demonstrated the dependence of accessibility on both, and made the case for the use of accessibility measures as a planning tool. This study builds off of these findings by demonstrating the use of accessibility‐based performance measures in the Twin Cities Metropolitan Area. This choice of performance measure also allows for transit and highway networks to be compared side‐by‐side. For roadway modeling, zone‐to‐zone travel time matrix was computed using stochastic user equilibrium (SUE) assignment with travel time feedback to trip distribution. A database of schedules was used on the transit networks to assign transit routes. This travel time data was joined with the land use data from each scenario to obtain the employment, population, and labor accessibility from each traffic analysis zone (TAZ) within specified time ranges. Tables of person‐weighted accessibility were computed for 20 minutes with zone population as the weight for employment accessibility and zone employment as the weight for population and labor accessibility. Maps of accessibility by zone were produced to show the spatial distribution of accessibility across the region. The results show that a scenario where population and employment growth are concentrated in the center of the metropolitan area would produce the highest accessibility no matter which transportation network changes are made. However, another scenario which concentrates population growth in the center of the metropolitan area and shifts employment growth to the periphery consistently outperforms the scenario representing the projected 2030 land use without any growth management strategy.     

An integrated approach for evaluating the effectiveness of landslide risk reduction in unplanned communities in the Caribbean

Despite the recognition of the need for mitigation approaches to landslide risk in developing countries, the delivery of ‘on-the-ground’ measures is rarely undertaken. With respect to other ‘natural’ hazards, it is widely reported that mitigation can pay. However, the lack of such an evidence base in relation to landslides in developing countries hinders advocacy amongst decision makers for expenditure on ex-ante measures. This research addresses these limitations directly by developing and applying an integrated risk assessment and cost–benefit analysis of physical landslide mitigation measures implemented in an unplanned community in the Eastern Caribbean. In order to quantify the level of landslide risk reduction achieved, landslide hazard and vulnerability were modelled (before and after the intervention), and project costs, direct and indirect benefits were monetised. It is shown that the probability of landslide occurrence has been substantially reduced by implementing surface-water drainage measures and that the benefits of the project outweigh the costs by a ratio of 2.7–1. This paper adds to the evidence base that ‘mitigation pays’ with respect to landslide risk in the most vulnerable communities—thus strengthening the argument for ex-ante measures. This integrated project evaluation methodology should be suitable for adoption as part of the community-based landslide mitigation project cycle, and it is hoped that this resource, and the results of this study, will stimulate further such programmes.     

On the importance of initializing the stochastic part of the atmosphere for forecasting the 1997/1998 El Ni?o

The importance of initializing atmospheric intra-seasonal (stochastic) variations for prediction of the onset of the 1997/1998 El Ni?o is examined using the Australian Bureau of Meteorology coupled seasonal forecast model. A suite of 9-month forecasts was initialized on the 1st December 1996. Observed ocean initial conditions were used together with five different atmospheric initial conditions that sample a range of possible initial states of intra-seasonal (stochastic) variability, especially the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which is considered the primary stochastic variability of relevance to El Ni?o evolution. The atmospheric initial states were generated from a suite of atmosphere-only integrations forced by observed sea surface temperatures (SST). To the extent that low frequency variability of the tropical atmosphere is forced by slow variations in SST, these atmospheric states should all represent realistic low frequency atmospheric variability that was present in December 1996. However, to the extent that intra-seasonal variability is not constrained by SST, they should capture a range of intra-seasonal states, especially variations in the activity, phase and amplitude of the MJO. For each of these five states, a 20-member ensemble of coupled model forecasts was generated by the addition of small random perturbations to the SST field at the initial time. The ensemble mean from all five sets of forecasts resulted in El Ni?o but three of the sets produced substantially greater warming by months 4?C5 in the NINO3.4 region compared to the other two. The warmer group stemmed from stronger intra-seasonal westerly wind anomalies associated with the MJO that propagated eastward into the central Pacific during the first 1?C2?months of the forecast. These were largely absent in the colder group; the weakest of the colder group developed strong easterly wind anomalies, relative to the grand ensemble mean, that propagated into the central Pacific early in the forecast, thereby generating significantly weaker downwelling Kelvin waves in comparison to the warmer group. The strong reduction in downwelling Kelvin waves in the weakest case acted to limit the warming in the eastern Pacific, resulting in a ??Modoki?? type El Ni?o that is more focused in the central Pacific. Our results suggest that the intra-seasonal stochastic component of the atmospheric initial condition has an important and potentially predictable impact on the forecasts of the initial warming and flavour of the 1997/1998 El Ni?o. However, to the extent that atmospheric intra-seasonal variability is not predictable beyond a month or two, these results imply a limit to the accuracy with which the strength and perhaps the spatial distribution of an El Ni?o can ultimately be predicted. These results do not preclude a predictable role of the MJO and other intra-seasonal stochastic variability at longer lead times if some aspects of the stochastic variability are preconditioned by the evolving state of El Ni?o or other low frequency boundary forcing.     

A Bayesian approach to monitoring and assessing unexploded ordnance remediation progress from munitions testing ranges

We present a statistical methodology which aims to monitor and assess the progress of unexploded ordnance remediation. We explicitly quantify the probability that each buried sensor-identified anomaly is not a target of interest conditional on the information gleaned from anomalies which have been dug and identified. We provide a measure of confidence that the anomalies which remain onsite after remediation are not unexploded ordnance—this measure of confidence is gleaned through Monte Carlo methods. The methodology is iterative in that, at any point in the remediation process, we can assess remediation progress and compute the probability that no targets of interest remain given the available dig information.     

Fecal Indicator Bacteria Variability in Samples Pumped from Monitoring Wells

The detection of microbiological contamination in drinking water from groundwater wells is often made with a limited number of samples that are collected using traditional geochemical sampling protocols. The objective of this study is to examine the variability of fecal indicator bacteria, as observed using discrete samples, due to pumping. Two wells were instrumented as multilevel piezometers in a bedrock aquifer, and bacterial enumeration was conducted on a total of 166 samples (for total coliform, fecal coliform, Escherichia coli, and fecal streptococci) using standard membrane filtration methods. Five tests were conducted using pumping rates ranging from 0.3 to 17 L/min in a variety of purging scenarios, which included constant and variable (incremental increase and decrease) flow. The results clearly show a rapid and reproducible, 1 to 2 log‐unit decrease in fecal indicator bacteria at the onset of pumping to stabilized, low‐level concentrations prior to the removal of three to five well volumes. The pumping rate was not found to be correlated with the magnitude of observed bacterial counts. Based on the results, we suggest sampling protocols for fecal indicator bacteria that include multiple collections during the course of pumping, including early‐time samples, and consider other techniques such as microscopic enumeration when assessing the source of bacteria from the well‐aquifer system.     

The Zn abundance and isotopic composition of diatom frustules,a proxy for Zn availability in ocean surface seawater

We have developed cleaning methods for extracting diatomopal from bulk marine sediment samples, for measurement of both zinc (Zn) abundance and isotope composition. This cleaning technique was then applied to a set of Holocene core-top samples from the Southern Ocean. The measured δ⁶⁶Zn (reported relative to the JMC_Lyon standard) and Zn/Si ratios from the Southern Ocean diatom_opal samples range from 0.7 to 1.5‰, and from 14 to 0.9 μmol/mol, respectively. The Zn abundance and isotope composition data show a clear correlation with opal burial rates and other oceanographic parameters. In common with previous work, we interpret the systematic changes in the Zn/Si ratio to be linked to the variability in the concentrations of bioavailable Zn in the ambient surface seawater where the diatom opal is formed. This variability is likely to be primarily controlled by the degree to which Zn is taken up into phytoplankton biomass. The observed systematic pattern in the δ⁶⁶Zn compositions of the diatom_opal core-top samples is, similarly, likely to reflect changes in the δ⁶⁶Zn composition of the ambient Zn in the surface waters above the core-top sites, which is progressively driven towards isotopically heavier values by preferential incorporation of the lighter isotopes into phytoplankton organic material. Thus, the systematic relationship between Zn isotopes and abundance observed in the core-top diatom_opal samples suggests a potential tool for investigating the biogeochemical cycling of Zn in the past surface ocean for down-core diatom_opal material. In this respect, it may be possible to test hypotheses that attribute variations in atmospheric CO₂ on glacial–interglacial timescales to the degree to which trace metals limited primary productivity in HNLC zones.     

Late glacial and holocene landscapes of central Beringia

New palynological and sedimentological data from St. Lawrence Island present a rare view into late-glacial and Holocene environments of the central Bering Land Bridge. The late glaciation was a time of dynamic landscape changes in south-central Beringia, with active thermokarst processes, including the formation and drainage of thaw lakes. The presence of such a wet, unstable substrate, if widespread, probably would have had an adverse impact on food sources and mobility for many of the large mammal populations. The establishment of Betula shrub tundra on the island suggests late-glacial summers that were warmer than present, consistent with regional paleoclimatic interpretations. However, the increasing proximity to the Bering Sea, as postglacial sea levels rose, modified the intensity of warming and prevented the establishment of deciduous forest as found in other areas of Beringia at this time. The mid- to late Holocene is marked by more stable land surfaces and development of Sphagnum and Cyperaceae peat deposits. The accumulation of organic deposits, decline of shrub Betula, and decrease in thermokarst disturbance suggest that conditions were cooler than the previous. A recent decline in peat accumulation at the study sites may relate to local geomorphology, but similar decreases have been noted for other arctic regions.     

Exploring weathering and regolith transport controls on Critical Zone development with models and natural experiments

The architecture of the Critical Zone, including mobile regolith thickness and depth to the weathering front, is first order controlled by advance of a weathering front at depth and transport of sediment at the surface. Differences in conditions imposed by slope aspect in the Gordon Gulch catchment of the Boulder Creek Critical Zone Observatory present a natural experiment to explore these interactions. The weathering front is deeper and saprolite more decayed on north-facing than on south-facing slopes. Simple numerical models of weathering front advance, mobile regolith production, and regolith transport are used to test how weathering and erosion rates interact in the evolution of weathered profiles. As the processes which attempt are being made to mimic are directly tied to climate variables such as mean annual temperature, the role of Quaternary climate variation in governing the evolution of Critical Zone architecture can be explored with greater confidence.     

Cues,Not an Endogenous Rhythm,Control the Dusk Peak in Water-Column Entry by Benthic Copepods

Individuals of some benthic species swim out of or away from the sediment surface into the water column, i.e., they emerge. Individuals of both emergent and nonemergent benthic species can be entrained by near-bottom flows. Both emergence and entrainment are of interest, e.g., for their roles in benthopelagic coupling, but the controlling factors are poorly understood. Our experiments with benthic copepods from contrasting environments showed that a factor (or factors) associated with the onset of darkness, rather than an endogenous rhythm, controls their dusk emergence. In addition, we argue that entrainment and emergence can interact in at least two ways: (1) Light-induced changes in oxygenation of the sediment pore water may affect the entrainment flux of benthic copepods and (2) if large numbers of individuals are entrained in the time leading up to sunset, few will remain in the sediment to be part of the dusk peak in emergence.