Rainfall trends in the Brazilian Amazon Basin in the past eight decades

Rainfall series at 18 stations along the major rivers of the Brazilian Amazon Basin, having data since 1920s or 1930s, are analyzed to verify if there are appreciable long-term trends. Annual, rainy-season, and dry-season rainfalls are individually analyzed for each station and for the region as a whole. Some stations showed positive trends and some negative trends. The trends in the annual rainfall are significant at only six stations, five of which reporting increasing trends (Barcelos, Belem, Manaus, Rio Branco, and Soure stations) and just one (Itaituba station) reporting decreasing trend. The climatological values of rainfall before and after 1970 show significant differences at six stations (Barcelos, Belem, Benjamin Constant, Iaurete, Itaituba, and Soure). The region as a whole shows an insignificant and weak downward trend; therefore, we cannot affirm that the rainfall in the Brazilian Amazon basin is experiencing a significant change, except at a few individual stations. Subregions with upward and downward trends are interspersed in space from the far eastern Amazon to western Amazon. Most of the seasonal trends follow the annual trends, thus, indicating a certain consistency in the datasets and analysis.     

Anthropogenic-induced changes in twenty-first century summertime hydroclimatology of the Northeastern US

Potential changes in summertime hydroclimatology over the northeastern (NE) region of the USA induced by increases in greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations are investigated using a state-of-the-art regional climate modeling system. Results for a higher emissions scenario illustrate changes that may occur if dependence on fossil fuels continues over the coming century. Summertime precipitation is projected to decrease across much of the central NE, but increase over the southernmost and northernmost portions of the domain. Evaporation is expected to increase across the entire domain. The balance between these two results in a decrease in soil moisture content across most of the domain (by approximately 10 mm) and an increase in the summertime soil-moisture depletion rate (by approximately 10 mm/month). At the same time, an increase in both atmospheric near-surface specific and saturation specific humidity is projected, resulting in an increase in relative humidity across the southern portion of the domain, with slight decreases over the northern portion. Combined with an average increase in summer temperatures of 3.5°C, the projected increase in relative humidity results in a marked increase in the average daily maximum heat index for the region on the order of 3.9°C, as well as a 350–400% increase in the number of days with heat index values exceeding 32.2°C (90°F)—the level of “extreme caution”. Taken together, these high-resolution, dynamically-generated projections confirm the potential for significant summertime climate change impacts on the NE over the coming century as suggested by previous studies.     

Contraction and convergence: an assessment of the CCOptions model

Well before President Putin ratified the Kyoto Protocol, the debate had begun as to the appropriate form of any post-Kyoto agreement. Amongst the emission reduction regimes being considered is that of Contraction and Convergence; conceived by Global Commons Institute (GCI) as a practical interpretation of the philosophy that “every adult on the planet has an equal right to emit greenhouse gases”. To support the Contraction and Convergence regime, the GCI have developed a computer model, CCOptions, to correlate CO₂ stabilisation levels with global, regional and national carbon reduction targets. This paper analyses the model, concluding that, whilst the aim of CCOptions is laudable, the application of the model in its current form is unnecessarily ambitious and as a consequence potentially misleading to all but the well-informed user.     

Comparison of uncertainty sources for climate change impacts: flood frequency in England

This paper investigates the uncertainty in the impact of climate change on flood frequency in England, through the use of continuous simulation of river flows. Six different sources of uncertainty are discussed: future greenhouse gas emissions; Global Climate Model (GCM) structure; downscaling from GCMs (including Regional Climate Model structure); hydrological model structure; hydrological model parameters and the internal variability of the climate system (sampled by applying different GCM initial conditions). These sources of uncertainty are demonstrated (separately) for two example catchments in England, by propagation through to flood frequency impact. The results suggest that uncertainty from GCM structure is by far the largest source of uncertainty. However, this is due to the extremely large increases in winter rainfall predicted by one of the five GCMs used. Other sources of uncertainty become more significant if the results from this GCM are omitted, although uncertainty from sources relating to modelling of the future climate is generally still larger than that relating to emissions or hydrological modelling. It is also shown that understanding current and future natural variability is critical in assessing the importance of climate change impacts on hydrology.     

Titan's surface at 2.2-cm wavelength imaged by the Cassini RADAR radiometer: Calibration and first results

The first comprehensive calibration and mapping of the thermal microwave emission from Titan's surface is reported based on radiometric data obtained at 2.2-cm wavelength by the passive radiometer included in the Cassini Radar instrument. The data reported were accumulated from 69 separate observational segments in Titan passes from Ta (October 2004) through T30 (May 2007) and include emission from 94% of Titan's surface. They are diverse in the key observing parameters of emission angle, polarization, and spatial resolution, and their reduction into calibrated global mosaic maps involved several steps. Analysis of the polarimetry obtained at low to moderate resolution (50+ km) enabled integration of the radiometry into a single mosaic of the equivalent brightness temperature at normal incidence with a relative precision of about 1 K. The Huygens probe measurement of Titan's surface temperature and radiometry obtained on Titan's dune fields allowed us to infer an absolute calibration estimated to be accurate to a level approaching 1 K. The results provide evidence for a surface that is complex and varied on large scales. The radiometry primarily constrains physical properties of the surface, where we see strong evidence for subsurface (volume) scattering as a dominant mechanism that determines the emissivity, with the possibility of a fluffy or graded-density surface layer in many regions. The results are consistent with, but not necessarily definitive of a surface composition resulting from the slow deposition and processing of organic compounds from the atmosphere.     

The role of minor mergers in the recent star formation history of early-type galaxies

We demonstrate that the large scatter in the ultraviolet (UV) colours of intermediate-mass early-type galaxies in the local Universe and the inferred low-level recent star formation (RSF) in these objects can be reproduced by minor mergers in the standard Λ cold dark matter (ΛCDM) cosmology. Numerical simulations of mergers with mass ratios ≤1:4, with reasonable assumptions for the ages, metallicities and dust properties of the merger progenitors, produce good agreement with the observed UV colours of the early-type population, if the infalling satellites are assumed to have (cold) gas fractions ≥20 per cent. Early-types that satisfy  ( NUV − r ) ≲ 3.8  are likely to have experienced mergers with mass ratios between 1:4 and 1:6 within the last ∼1.5 Gyr, while those that satisfy  3.8 < ( NUV − r ) < 5.5  are consistent with either recent mergers with mass ratios ≤1:6 or mergers with higher mass ratios that occurred more than ∼1.5 Gyr in the past. We demonstrate that the early-type colour–magnitude relations and colour distributions, in both the UV and optical spectral ranges, are consistent with the expected frequency of minor merging activity in the standard ΛCDM cosmology at low redshift. We present a strong plausibility argument for minor mergers to be the principal mechanism behind the large UV scatter and associated low-level RSF observed in early-type galaxies in the nearby Universe.     

Particle transport and distribution on the Mars Science Laboratory mission: Effects of triboelectric charging

We report on the nature of fine particle (<150 μm) transport under simulated martian conditions, in order to better understand the Mars Science Laboratory’s (MSL) sample acquisition, processing and handling subsystem (SA/SPaH). We find that triboelectric charging due to particle movement may have to be controlled in order for successful transport of fines that are created within the drill, processed through the Collection and Handling for In situ Martian Rock Analysis (CHIMRA) sample handing system, and delivered to the Sample Analysis at Mars (SAM) and Chemistry and Mineralogy (CheMin) instruments. These fines will be transferred from the surface material to the portioner, a 3 mm diameter, 8 mm deep distribution center where they will drop ∼2 cm to the instrument inlet funnels. In our experiments, movement of different material including terrestrial analogs and martian soil simulants (Mars Mojave Simulant - MMS) resulted in 1-7 nanocoulombs of charge to build up for several different experimental configurations. When this charging phenomenon occurs, several different results are observed including particle clumping, adherence of material on conductive surfaces, or electrostatic repulsion, which causes like-charged particles to move away from each other. This electrostatic repulsion can sort samples based upon differing size fractions, while adhesion causes particles of different sizes to bind into clods. Identifying these electrostatic effects can help us understand potential bias in the analytical instruments and to define the best operational protocols to collect samples on the surface of Mars.     

A SuperWASP search for additional transiting planets in 24 known systems

We present results from a search for additional transiting planets in 24 systems already known to contain a transiting planet. We model the transits due to the known planet in each system and subtract these models from light curves obtained with the SuperWASP (Wide Angle Search for Planets) survey instruments. These residual light curves are then searched for evidence of additional periodic transit events. Although we do not find any evidence for additional planets in any of the planetary systems studied, we are able to characterize our ability to find such planets by means of Monte Carlo simulations. Artificially generated transit signals corresponding to planets with a range of sizes and orbital periods were injected into the SuperWASP photometry and the resulting light curves searched for planets. As a result, the detection efficiency as a function of both the radius and orbital period of any second planet is calculated. We determine that there is a good (>50 per cent) chance of detecting additional, Saturn-sized planets in   P ∼  10 d orbits around planet-hosting stars that have several seasons of SuperWASP photometry. Additionally, we confirm previous evidence of the rotational stellar variability of WASP-10, and refine the period of rotation. We find that the period of the rotation is  11.91 ± 0.05  d, and the false alarm probability for this period is extremely low  (∼10⁻¹³)  .     

The formation of small cones in Isidis Planitia,Mars through mobilization of pyroclastic surge deposits

We investigate the distinctive distribution and pattern of subkilometer-sized cones in Isidis Planitia, and their relationship to the material that fills the basin. We observe that: (1) the cones show uniform size, spacing, and morphology across the entire basin; (2) they have large central depressions (relative to cone basal diameters) that are generally filled in and commonly show layering; (3) cone chains form highly organized spatial patterns; cones are also found in isolation and in dense fields; (4) many adjacent chains are parallel, and evenly spaced, creating a pattern that mimics lava flows that have experienced compressional folding; (5) no flows are associated with the cones, even where summit crater rims are breached; (6) the cones are at least temporally related to basin fill; (7) the basin fill material is largely fine-grained, but with locally indurated layers at shallow depth; blocks ejected by small craters from these locally indurated layers are commonly dark in color; and (8) relationships between cones along a chain show no systematic temporal formation sequence along the chain. We conclude that the basin was likely inundated by one or more hot, partially welded pyroclastic flows; devolatilization of these flows remobilized volcaniclastic material to form the cones without associated lava flows. The volume of gas required to account for the observed number of cones is low and does not require the presence of ground water or ice.