A Frequency Matching Method: Solving Inverse Problems by Use of Geologically Realistic Prior Information

The frequency matching method defines a closed form expression for a complex prior that quantifies the higher order statistics of a proposed solution model to an inverse problem. While existing solution methods to inverse problems are capable of sampling the solution space while taking into account arbitrarily complex a priori information defined by sample algorithms, it is not possible to directly compute the maximum a posteriori model, as the prior probability of a solution model cannot be expressed. We demonstrate how the frequency matching method enables us to compute the maximum a posteriori solution model to an inverse problem by using a priori information based on multiple point statistics learned from training images. We demonstrate the applicability of the suggested method on a synthetic tomographic crosshole inverse problem.     

Seismic architecture and sedimentology of a major grounding zone system deposited by the Bjørnøyrenna Ice Stream during Late Weichselian deglaciation

A 280 km wide sediment wedge in outer Bjørnøyrenna (Bear Island Trough), south-western Barents Sea, has been investigated using 2D and 3D seismic data, sediment gravity cores, as well as regional swath and large scale bathymetry data. The bathymetry data indicate a division into an up to 35 m high frontal wedge with large depressions, and an upstream part characterized by mega scale glacial lineations (MSGL). From seismic sections increasing erosion is demonstrated for the upstream part, coinciding with the location of MSGL. Whether the latter are depositional features postdating an extensive erosional event or formed by erosion remains inconclusive. Based on the distinct morphology and internal structures, we infer that the system was deposited during a rapid readvance whereby the ice front pushed and bulldozed predominantly soft, diluted proglacial sediments. Analyses in the eastern part of the sediment system reveal the existence of imbricated thrust sheets in the frontal part of the wedge. This is suggested to imply upstream erosion of sedimentary rock and incorporation of thrusted blocks into the moraine, forming a composite ridge locally. We argue that observed large scale depressions are dead-ice features in the marine environment. It is envisioned that intense englacial thrusting may have developed into a decollement as the cold glacier snout got overrun by ice masses from the interior, thereby enabling the inclusion of slabs of ice in the push moraine mass. Radiocarbon dates indicate that the sediment wedge was deposited around 17,090 cal yrs BP (14,530 ¹⁴C yrs BP) and that the ice front probably remained stable until 16,580 cal yrs BP (13,835 ¹⁴C yrs BP).     

‘Bulls-eye’ pockmarks and polygonal faulting in the Lower Congo Basin: Relative timing and implications for fluid expulsion during shallow burial

This study describes a new type of pockmark association from the Lower Congo Basin offshore West Africa, consisting of up to 8 stacked paleopockmarks separated by intervals of drape and onlap fill. The stacked paleopockmarks occur within the depocentres of polygonally-faulted Plio-Pleistocene sediments and are distributed evenly in the downslope parts of two salt mini-basins. The majority of the stacked pockmarks initiated synchronously in the late Pliocene (~ 3 Ma) with a subordinate initiation phase in the mid Pliocene (~ 4 Ma). The primary agents in pockmark formation are interpreted to be pore water expelled during early-stage compaction together with biogenic methane. Bottom simulating reflections (BSRs) associated with free gas overlain by gas hydrates are currently found in the area. It is speculated that biogenic methane accumulated within and below a clathrate cap, which was repeatedly breached, forming pockmarks at discrete horizons separated by intervals of draping sedimentation. The mid and late Pliocene pockmark initiations appear to coincide with sea-level falls following periods of relatively stable highstand conditions. Several subsequent pockmark horizons may similarly correlate with subsequent sea-level falls during the late Pliocene and early Pleistocene. The stacked paleopockmarks are completely surrounded by polygonal faults and consistently occur within polygonal fault cells that crosscut the succession containing the stacked pockmarks. Early-stage compaction and dewatering of the Pliocene sediments thus preceded polygonal faulting, providing a constraint on the conditions leading to polygonal faulting of the fine-grained host sediments. The relationship documented here is interpreted as due to the presence of a hydrate cap in the Plio-Pleistocene mini-basins which may have retarded the normal compaction processes and facilitated pockmark formation by allowing the build up of gas hydrate and free gas in the basin centres. The relative timing and spatial relationships implies that fluids expelled due to polygonal faulting were not implicated in pockmark formation in this area.     

A conceptual framework for multi-regional climate change assessments for international market systems with long-term investments

A conceptual framework for climate change assessments of international market systems that involve long-term investments is proposed. The framework is a hybrid of dynamic and static modeling. Dynamic modeling is used for those system components for which temporally continuous modeling is possible, while fixed time slices are used for other system components where it can be assumed that underlying assumptions are held constant within the time slices but allowed to vary between slices. An important component of the framework is the assessment of the “metauncertainty” arising from the structural uncertainties of a linked sequence of climate, production, trade and decision-making models. The impetus for proposing the framework is the paucity of industry-wide assessments for market systems with multiple production regions and long-term capital investments that are vulnerable to climate variations and change, especially climate extremes. The proposed framework is pragmatic, eschewing the ideal for the tractable. Even so, numerous implementation challenges are expected, which are illustrated using an example industry. The conceptual framework is offered as a starting point for further discussions of strategies and approaches for climate change impact, vulnerability and adaptation assessments for international market systems.     

A Rb-Sr whole rock isochron date on an igneous rock-body from the Stavanger area,South Norway

The Ormakam-Moldhesten granite, from the Stavanger area, South Norway, has been dated by the Rb-Sr whole rock method. The isochron ages obtained (1180 m.y., 1243 ±160m.y. and 1534±125 m.y.) show that the granite complex is of Precambrian age. The 1543 m. year age is thought to refer to a period of early granulite facies metamorphism, the 1180 m.y. isochron age is taken as the crystallisation age of a later intrusion of biotite granite. This is within the limits of error of the 1160 m.y. metamorphic event shown earlier to have affected the paragneisses in the area. The results demonstrate clearly the allochthonous position of the gneisses and granitic intrusives overlying the fossiliferous Cambrian beds in the Stavanger area. The tectonostratigraphic succession in this area is thus consistent with the observation of Precambrian nappes to the north (Hardangervidda-Ryfylke area).     

Olivine [100] normal to foliation: lattice preferred orientation in prograde garnet peridotite formed at high H<Subscript>2</Subscript>O activity,Cima di Gagnone (Central Alps)

Automated electron backscattered diffraction (EBSD) was applied using a scanning electron microscope to obtain lattice preferred orientation (LPO) data for olivine in garnet peridotites of the Central Alps. As a reference frame, the LPOs of enstatite were also investigated. In the garnet peridotite at Cima di Gagnone (CDG), a weak foliation carrying a distinct lineation is present. The lineation is characterized by elongated enstatite, olivine and poikiloblastic garnet. Olivine shows a very unusual LPO with [100] normal to foliation and [001] parallel to lineation. Achsenverteilungsanalyse (AVA) maps demonstrate that [001] of olivine grains corresponds quite well to their maximum length axes which are preferentially parallel to the lineation. Numerous planar hydrous defects within (001) planes of olivine are marked by palisades of ilmenite rods and show a preferred orientation normal to lineation. Calculated P-wave velocities for CDG are fastest (8.32 km s^у) normal to foliation with a relatively low anisotropy (2.9%). Compared to mantle peridotites with the usual (010)[100] LPO where the fastest Vp direction is towards the lineation, the relationship between flow geometry and seismic anisotropy is significantly different at CDG. Several mechanisms for the formation of the LPO type at CDG are considered, with glide possible on (100)[001] of olivine. On the basis of field data as well as petrographic and petrologic evidence, it has been demonstrated that the CDG garnet peridotite formed by prograde metamorphism from a hydrous protolith at pressures and temperatures of about 3.0 GPa and 750 °C, respectively. The CDG LPO is interpreted to have formed during hydrous subduction zone metamorphism. The same interpretation may hold for the previously investigated olivine LPO at Alpe Arami, which is similar to that at the nearby CDG. The observed anomalous LPO is no proof for ultradeep (>3.0 GPa) conditions.     

East African food security as influenced by future climate change and land use change at local to regional scales

Climate change impacts food production systems, particularly in locations with large, vulnerable populations. Elevated greenhouse gases (GHG), as well as land cover/land use change (LCLUC), can influence regional climate dynamics. Biophysical factors such as topography, soil type, and seasonal rainfall can strongly affect crop yields. We used a regional climate model derived from the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) to compare the effects of projected future GHG and future LCLUC on spatial variability of crop yields in East Africa. Crop yields were estimated with a process-based simulation model. The results suggest that: (1) GHG-influenced and LCLUC-influenced yield changes are highly heterogeneous across this region; (2) LCLUC effects are significant drivers of yield change; and (3) high spatial variability in yield is indicated for several key agricultural sub-regions of East Africa. Food production risk when considered at the household scale is largely dependent on the occurrence of extremes, so mean yield in some cases may be an incomplete predictor of risk. The broad range of projected crop yields reflects enormous variability in key parameters that underlie regional food security; hence, donor institutions’ strategies and investments might benefit from considering the spatial distribution around mean impacts for a given region. Ultimately, global assessments of food security risk would benefit from including regional and local assessments of climate impacts on food production. This may be less of a consideration in other regions. This study supports the concept that LCLUC is a first-order factor in assessing food production risk.