Geophysical data integration,stochastic simulation and significance analysis of groundwater responses using ANOVA in the Chicot Aquifer system,Louisiana, USA

Data integration is challenging where there are different levels of support between primary and secondary data that need to be correlated in various ways. A geostatistical method is described, which integrates the hydraulic conductivity (K) measurements and electrical resistivity data to better estimate the K distribution in the Upper Chicot Aquifer of southwestern Louisiana, USA. The K measurements were obtained from pumping tests and represent the primary (hard) data. Borehole electrical resistivity data from electrical logs were regarded as the secondary (soft) data, and were used to infer K values through Archie’s law and the Kozeny-Carman equation. A pseudo cross-semivariogram was developed to cope with the resistivity data non-collocation. Uncertainties in the auto-semivariograms and pseudo cross-semivariogram were quantified. The groundwater flow model responses by the regionalized and coregionalized models of K were compared using analysis of variance (ANOVA). The results indicate that non-collocated secondary data may improve estimates of K and affect groundwater flow responses of practical interest, including specific capacity and drawdown.

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Résumé  L’intégration de données entre en jeu lorsque plusieurs niveaux intermédiaires d’assistance sont nécessaires pour corréler données primaires et secondaires de diverses manières. Le présent article décrit une méthode géostatistique qui intègre les mesures de conductivité hydraulique (K) et les données de résistivité électrique, afin d’estimer plus efficacement la distribution de K dans l’Aquifère Supérieur de Chicot, au sud-ouest de la Louisiane (Etats-Unis). Les mesures de K sont issues des pompages d’essai et représentent les données primaires (“dures”). Les données des diagraphies de résistivité électrique ont été considérées comme des données secondaires (“molles”), à partir desquelles les valeurs de K ont été déduites, par la loi d’Archie et l’équation de Kozeny-Carman. Un pseudo semi-variogramme croisé a été développé afin de pallier à l’absence de colocalisation des données de résistivité. Les incertitudes sur les semi-variogrammes automatiques et sur les pseudo semi-variogrammes croisés ont été quantifiées. Les réponses du modèle d’écoulement des eaux souterraines aux modèles régionalisés et co-régionalisés de K ont été comparés, par les analyses de variance (ANOVA). Les résultats montrent que les données secondaires non-colocalisées peuvent améliorer les estimations de K, et affecter efficacement les réponses des écoulements souterrains, y compris les débits spécifiques et les rabattements.

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Resumen  La integración de datos es un gran desafío cuando existen diferentes niveles de apoyo entre datos primarios y secundarios que es necesario correlacionar de varias maneras. Se describe un método geoestadístico el cual integra mediciones de conductividad hidráulica (K) y datos de resistividad eléctrica para tener una mejor estimación de la distribución de K en el Acuífero Chicot Superior del suroeste de Luisiana, Estados Unidos de América. Las mediciones de K se obtuvieron de pruebas de bombeo y representan los datos primarios (duros). Los datos de sondeos de resistividad eléctrica se consideraron como datos secundarios (suaves) y se usaron para inferir valores de K a través de la ley de Archie y la ecuación de Carman-Kozeny. Se desarrolló un pseudo semivariograma cruzado para enfrentar la falta de colocación de datos de resistividad. Se cuantificaron las incertidumbres en los auto-semivariogramas y en los semivariogramas cruzados. Las respuestas del modelo de flujo de agua subterránea por los modelos coregionalizados y regionalizados de K se compararon usando el análisis de varianza (ANOVA). Los resultados indican que los datos secundarios no colocados pueden mejorar los estimados de K y afectar las respuestas de flujo de agua subterránea de interés práctico, incluyendo capacidad específica y descenso.

     

Climate Change,Bushfire Risk,and Environmental Values: Examining a Potential Risk Perception Threshold in Peri-Urban South Australia

Striking a balance between the management of environmental risks and values is a challenge for decision-makers. If people perceive that environmental risks are increasing they may be willing to discount local values to manage those risks, so the identification of thresholds in risk perception in relation to specific behaviors could help to avoid policy failures. The complex relationships between perceptions of climate change and bushfire risks, environmental values and support for actions to mitigate local risks are presented for peri-urban regions in South Australia. The results of a household survey (N=988) suggest that a threshold of risk perception in relation to climate change and bushfire management has not been exceeded and people are broadly supportive of balanced management interventions. A minority of people still do not perceive that climate change is increasing bushfire risk, and are supportive of risk mitigation interventions even at the expense of local biodiversity. However, a larger group believe that climate change is a driver of bushfire risk, yet are still more likely to prioritize ecological values and are unwilling to discount those values for risk mitigation. Targeted communication could assist different groups to respond to gaps in knowledge and action to facilitate effective, differentiated interventions within forested landscapes on the margins of urban areas.     

科技型创新区人本化构建的国际实践及启示

创新和创新区已日益成为城市经济发展和城市竞争力的重要元素,在科技和人才日渐成为激发城市创新型经济,及促进城市活力的主导甚至决定性因素的当今时代,尤为如此。通过对欧洲、北美和亚洲三个不同类型的科技型创新区国际最佳实践的系统梳理,甄别出用以打造一个科技型创新区的共通性要素、标准和原则。国际最佳实践证明,科技型创新区的人本化构建正在成为一种主流趋势,即综合考虑人在各阶段、各层次等多样化需求的基础上,通过对文化要素的有效鉴别和这些要素之间的作用机理,使它们有机融合并系统嵌入到创新区的空间打造中。结论表明：要成功打造一个科技型创新区,必须考虑并重视七大要素,即创意人才、企业集群、能动设施、资金保障、运营管理、空间结构和文化氛围。基于此,提出对中国科技型创新区建设与发展的五大启示,即愿景导向下的持续培育、前瞻性定位、人本化空间布局、创新激发型活动安排和多利益群体参与。最后,还提出要从四个方面进行互动关联研究,以构建空间/地方人本化打造的完整理论体系。     

A Bounding Surface Plasticity Model for Intact Rock Exhibiting Size-Dependent Behaviour

A new constitutive model for intact rock is presented recognising that rock strength, stiffness and stress–strain behaviour are affected by the size of the rock being subjected to loading. The model is formulated using bounding surface plasticity theory. It is validated against a new and extensive set of unconfined compression and triaxial compression test results for Gosford sandstone. The samples tested had diameters ranging from 19 to 145 mm and length-to-diameter ratios of 2. The model captures the continuous nonlinear stress–strain behaviour from initial loading, through peak strength to large shear strains, including transition from brittle to ductile behaviour. The size dependency was accounted for through a unified size effect law applied to the unconfined compressive strength—a key model input parameter. The unconfined compressive strength increases with sample size before peaking and then decreasing with further increasing sample size. Inside the constitutive model two hardening laws act simultaneously, each driven by plastic shear strains. The elasticity is stress level dependent. Simple linear loading and bounding surfaces are adopted, defined using the Mohr–Coulomb criterion, along with a non-associated flow rule. The model simulates well the stress–strain behaviour of Gosford sandstone at confining pressures ranging from 0 to 30 MPa for the variety of sample sizes considered.     

Group Sunspot Numbers: A New Solar Activity Reconstruction

In this paper, we construct a time series known as the Group Sunspot Number. The Group Sunspot Number is designed to be more internally self-consistent (i.e., less dependent upon seeing the tiniest spots) and less noisy than the Wolf Sunspot Number. It uses the number of sunspot groups observed, rather than groups and individual sunspots. Daily, monthly, and yearly means are derived from 1610 to the present. The Group Sunspot Numbers use 65941 observations from 117 observers active before 1874 that were not used by Wolf in constructing his time series. Hence, we have calculated daily values of solar activity on 111358 days for 1610–1995, compared to 66168 days for the Wolf Sunspot Numbers. The Group Sunspot Numbers also have estimates of their random and systematic errors tabulated. The generation and preliminary analysis of the Group Sunspot Numbers allow us to make several conclusions: (1) Solar activity before 1882 is lower than generally assumed and consequently solar activity in the last few decades is higher than it has been for several centuries. (2) There was a solar activity peak in 1801 and not 1805 so there is no long anomalous cycle of 17 years as reported in the Wolf Sunspot Numbers. The longest cycle now lasts no more than 15 years. (3) The Wolf Sunspot Numbers have many inhomogeneities in them arising from observer noise and this noise affects the daily, monthly, and yearly means. The Group Sunspot Numbers also have observer noise, but it is considerably less than the noise in the Wolf Sunspot Numbers. The Group Sunspot Number is designed to be similar to the Wolf Sunspot Number, but, even if both indices had perfect inputs, some differences are expected, primarily in the daily values.     

VIRGO: Experiment for helioseismology and solar irradiance monitoring

The scientific objective of the VIRGO experiment (Variability of solar IRradiance and Gravity Oscillations) is to determine the characteristics of pressure and internal gravity oscillations by observing irradiance and radiance variations, to measure the solar total and spectral irradiance and to quantify their variability over periods of days to the duration of the mission. With these data helioseismological methods can be used to probe the solar interior. Certain characteristics of convection and its interaction with magnetic fields, related to, for example, activity, will be studied from the results of the irradiance monitoring and from the comparison of amplitudes and phases of the oscillations as manifest in brightness from VIRGO, in velocity from GOLF, and in both velocity and continuum intensity from SOI/MDI. The VIRGO experiment contains two different active-cavity radiometers for monitoring the solar constant, two three-channel sunphotometers (SPM) for the measurement of the spectral irradiance at 402, 500 and 862 nm, and a low-resolution imager (LOI) with 12 pixels, for the measurement of the radiance distribution over the solar disk at 500 um. In this paper the scientific objectives of VIRGO are presented, the instruments and the data acquisition and control system are described in detail, and their measured performance is given.died 13 October 1994     

Variations in the type and distribution of organic matter in some Carboniferous sediments from northern England

The organic content of a number of sediments from the Carboniferous of northern England have been examined as a function of their depositional environment. Extraction of the sediments yielded the soluble organic matter whilst microscopic examination of polished blocks of shales enabled the detection of particles of organic detritus. A relationship between the amount of extract and the quantity of terrestrial plant material in the sediments has been established. However, the yield of extract (mg/g org. C) is higher in the more marine environment than the nonmarine environment. The proportion of saturated hydrocarbons in the extract appears to be related to the amount of identifiable organic matter (coal macerals) in the sediment. The n-alkane distribution patterns have been compared with these obtained from coal macerals. The suggestion that the pristane to phytane ratios may reflect the source material of the organic matter has been examined.     

Influence of averaging interval on shear velocity estimates for aeolian transport modeling

Recent investigations of aeolian transport have focused on increasingly short time scales because of growing recognition that wind unsteadiness is a major factor in the dynamics of sediment transport. However, the statistical reliability of shear velocity (u_*) estimates becomes increasingly uncertain as averaging interval is decreased. This study provides an empirical assessment of the influence of averaging interval on the reliability of u_* estimates. The data consist of 15-min wind-speed profiles (1 Hz sampling) collected at four coastal sites. Each profile was subdivided into progressively shorter fixed-length time intervals, and estimates of u_* and the 95% confidence interval for u_* were determined for each time-block using standard statistical techniques.The logarithmic model accurately represents the measured wind-speed profiles, even with relatively brief averaging intervals. Mean r² values remain robust down to block lengths as short as 10–20 s, typically retaining better than 98% of the r² value found for the full-length data sets. Fewer than 2% of the individual 10-s blocks had r² values less than 0.9. However, mean confidence intervals typically expanded by 70–80% of the full-record value as block length decreased from 900 to 10 s. For highly log-linear profiles, this amounted to an absolute increase from about ±8% to only ±14% of u_*, so that the additional information gained through the use of shorter averaging intervals may outweigh the increase in statistical uncertainty. Nevertheless, given that rates of aeolian transport are generally modeled as a function of u_*³, this increase in uncertainty may be significant for transport modeling. Thus, very short averaging intervals should be used with caution when predicting aeolian sediment flux. It is proposed that transport modeling should incorporate the shear velocity confidence interval as an indicator of the potential error associated with this source of uncertainty.     

Deep-water sediment wave fields, bottom current sand channels and gravity flow channel-lobe systems: Gulf of Cadiz, NE Atlantic

Abstract A study of the seafloor of the Gulf of Cadiz west of the Strait of Gibraltar, using an integrated geophysical and sedimentological data set, gives new insights into sediment deposition from downslope thermohaline bottom currents. In this area, the Mediterranean Outflow (MO) begins to mix with North Atlantic waters and separates into alongslope geostrophic and downslope ageostrophic components. Changes in bedform morphology across the study area indicate a decrease in the peak velocity of the MO from >1 m s^?1 to <0·5 m s^?1. The associated sediment waves form a continuum from sand waves to muddy sand waves to mud waves. A series of downslope‐oriented channels, formed by the MO, are found where the MO starts to descend the continental slope at a water depth of ≈700 m. These channels are up to 40 km long, have gradients of <0·5°, a fairly constant width of ≈2 km and a depth of ≈75 m. Sand waves move down the channels that have mud wave‐covered levees similar to those seen in turbidite channel–levee systems, although the channel size and levee thickness do not decrease downslope as in typical turbidite channel systems. The channels terminate abruptly where the MO lifts off the seafloor. Gravity flow channels with lobes on the basin floor exist downslope from several of the bottom current channels. Each gravity flow system has a narrow, slightly sinuous channel, up to 20 m deep, feeding a depositional lobe up to 7 km long. Cores from the lobes recovered up to 8·5 m of massive, well‐sorted, fine sand, with occasional mud clasts. This work provides an insight into the complex facies patterns associated with strong bottom currents and highlights key differences between bottom current and gravity flow channel–levee systems. The distribution of sand within these systems is of particular interest, with applications in understanding the architecture of hydrocarbon reservoirs formed in continental slope settings.