A Framework for Quantitative Assessment of Impacts Related to Energy and Mineral Resource Development

Natural resource planning at all scales demands methods for assessing the impacts of resource development and use, and in particular it requires standardized methods that yield robust and unbiased results. Building from existing probabilistic methods for assessing the volumes of energy and mineral resources, we provide an algorithm for consistent, reproducible, quantitative assessment of resource development impacts. The approach combines probabilistic input data with Monte Carlo statistical methods to determine probabilistic outputs that convey the uncertainties inherent in the data. For example, one can utilize our algorithm to combine data from a natural gas resource assessment with maps of sage grouse leks and piñon-juniper woodlands in the same area to estimate possible future habitat impacts due to possible future gas development. As another example: one could combine geochemical data and maps of lynx habitat with data from a mineral deposit assessment in the same area to determine possible future mining impacts on water resources and lynx habitat. The approach can be applied to a broad range of positive and negative resource development impacts, such as water quantity or quality, economic benefits, or air quality, limited only by the availability of necessary input data and quantified relationships among geologic resources, development alternatives, and impacts. The framework enables quantitative evaluation of the trade-offs inherent in resource management decision-making, including cumulative impacts, to address societal concerns and policy aspects of resource development.     

Wetland Accretion Rate Model of Ecosystem Resilience (WARMER) and Its Application to Habitat Sustainability for Endangered Species in the San Francisco Estuary

Salt marsh faunas are constrained by specific habitat requirements for marsh elevation relative to sea level and tidal range. As sea level rises, changes in relative elevation of the marsh plain will have differing impacts on the availability of habitat for marsh obligate species. The Wetland Accretion Rate Model for Ecosystem Resilience (WARMER) is a 1-D model of elevation that incorporates both biological and physical processes of vertical marsh accretion. Here, we use WARMER to evaluate changes in marsh surface elevation and the impact of these elevation changes on marsh habitat for specific species of concern. Model results were compared to elevation-based habitat criteria developed for marsh vegetation, the endangered California clapper rail (Rallus longirostris obsoletus), and the endangered salt marsh harvest mouse (Reithrodontomys raviventris) to determine the response of marsh habitat for each species to predicted >1-m sea-level rise by 2100. Feedback between vertical accretion mechanisms and elevation reduced the effect of initial elevation in the modeled scenarios. Elevation decreased nonlinearly with larger changes in elevation during the latter half of the century when the rate of sea-level rise increased. Model scenarios indicated that changes in elevation will degrade habitat quality within salt marshes in the San Francisco Estuary, and degradation will accelerate in the latter half of the century as the rate of sea-level rise accelerates. A sensitivity analysis of the model results showed that inorganic sediment accumulation and the rate of sea-level rise had the greatest influence over salt marsh sustainability.     

Sustainability,natural capital,engineering, and geology: a case study of Coles County,IL, USA

If sustainable development planning for Coles County, IL, USA, had been done in 1830, planners would not have been able to predict changing technology allowing more efficient use of existing natural capital. Planning for sustainability should include the geology, current and historic uses of natural capital, and consideration of changing population and technology. Coles County has glacial and alluvial deposits underlain by bedrock of the Illinois Basin. Discussion with local experts and inspection of current and historic records determined the current and historic use of natural capital of Coles County. Land initially attracted humans to water and fertile soil supporting plants and animals. Fertile soil and water continue to support agricultural activity today. The two largest communities rely on surface water for water supply. Sand, gravel, and limestone are quarried. Coal has been mined in the past. Petroleum drilling is on the third pass as technology and demand have changed. Technologic changes have allowed the county to develop new and more efficient ways of using natural capital leading to continued use of resources in the county.     

Textures in Partially Solidified Crystalline Nodules: a Window into the Pore Structure of Slowly Cooled Mafic Intrusions

Abundant glass is present along grain boundaries in coarse-grained,glass-bearing, crystalline gabbroic and peridotitic nodulesentrained and erupted in lavas from Iceland, Santorini and MaunaLoa (Hawaii), even when the total porosity is less than a fewvolume per cent. The glass films vary from a few microns toa few tens of microns thick, and are associated with stringsof small lensoid grain boundary pockets formed by impingementduring crystal growth. Additional porosity occurs as extensiveliquid-filled pockets adjacent to included grains within oikocrystsand as large triangular pockets formed by impingement of planar-sidedgrains. Interstitial material within glass films, and the irregularityof film thickness along a single grain boundary, suggest thatthe present pore structure is representative of the pore structurebefore entrainment and eruption. Pore geometry is consistentwith a dominant control by crystal growth during solidification,with little or no evidence for control by minimization of internalenergies driven by textural equilibration. Similarities betweenliquid distribution in the crystalline nodules and that of late-stage,interstitial phases in fully solidified mafic cumulates fromthe Rum and Skaergaard intrusions demonstrate that the crystallinenodules provide information about the latest stages of solidificationin slowly cooled mafic plutons. The highly permeable networkof intersecting liquid films, lenses and pockets may promotein situ crystallization in the solidifying mush, explainingthe common presence of adcumulates in such intrusions. KEY WORDS: textures; liquid distribution; mafic cumulates; crystalline nodules     

Zircon (U-Th)/He thermochronometry: He diffusion and comparisons with Ar/Ar dating

(U-Th)/He chronometry of zircon has a wide range of potential applications including thermochronometry, provided the temperature sensitivity (e.g., closure temperature) of the system be accurately constrained. We have examined the characteristics of He loss from zircon in a series of step-heating diffusion experiments, and compared zircon (U-Th)/He ages with other thermochronometric constraints from plutonic rocks. Diffusion experiments on zircons with varying ages and U-Th contents yield Arrhenius relationships which, after about 5% He release, indicate E_a = 163-173 kJ/mol (39-41 kcal/mol), and D₀ = 0.09-1.5 cm²/s, with an average E_a of 169 ± 3.8 kJ/mol (40.4 ± 0.9 kcal/mol) and average D₀ of 0.46^+0.87_−0.30 cm²/s. The experiments also suggest a correspondence between diffusion domain size and grain size. For effective grain radius of 60 μm and cooling rate of 10°C/myr, the diffusion data yield closure temperatures, T_c, of 171-196°C, with an average of 183°C. The early stages of step heating experiments show complications in the form of decreasing apparent diffusivity with successive heating steps, but these are essentially absent in later stages, after about 5-10% He release. These effects are independent of radiation dosage and are also unlikely to be due to intracrystalline He zonation. Regardless of the physical origin, this non-Arrhenius behavior is similar to predictions based on degassing of multiple diffusion domains, with only a small proportion (<2-4%) of gas residing in domains with a lower diffusivity than the bulk zircon crystal. Thus the features of zircon responsible for these non-Arrhenius trends in the early stages of diffusion experiments would have a negligible effect on the bulk thermal sensitivity and closure temperature of a zircon crystal.We have also measured single-grain zircon (U-Th)/He ages and obtained ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages for several minerals, including K-feldspar, for a suite of slowly cooled samples with other thermochronologic constraints. Zircon He ages from most samples have 1 σ reproducibilities of about 1-5%, and agree well with K-feldspar ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar multidomain cooling models for sample-specific closure temperatures (170-189°C). One sample has a relatively poor reproducibility of ∼24%, however, and a mean that falls to older ages than predicted by the K-feldspar model. Microimaging shows that trace element zonation of a variety of styles is most pronounced in this sample, which probably leads to poor reproducibility via inaccurate α-ejection corrections. We present preliminary results of a new method for characterizing U-Th zonation in dated grains by laser-ablation, which significantly improves zircon He age accuracy.In summary, the zircon (U-Th)/He thermochronometer has a closure temperature of 170-190°C for typical plutonic cooling rates and crystal sizes, it is not significantly affected by radiation damage except in relatively rare cases of high radiation dosage with long-term low-temperature histories, and most ages agree well with constraints provided by K-spar ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar cooling models. In some cases, intracrystalline U-Th zonation can result in inaccurate ages, but depth-profiling characterization of zonation in dated grains can significantly improve accuracy and precision of single-grain ages.     

Evaporites and siliciclastics of the Permian Nippewalla Group of Kansas, USA: a case for non-marine deposition in saline lakes and saline pans

The mid‐Permian Nippewalla Group of Kansas consists of bedded evaporites, red‐bed siliciclastics and grey siliciclastics deposited in a non‐marine environment. Lithologies and sedimentary features indicate lacustrine and aeolian deposition, subaerial exposure and palaeosol formation. Grey siliciclastic mudstones characterized by planar and convolute laminations, ostracods, peloids and plant material represent a freshwater‐brackish perennial lake facies. Bedded anhydrites containing gypsum‐crystal pseudomorphs, clastic anhydrite grains and grey mud drapes and partings suggest deposition in saline lakes. Bedded halites consist of chevron and cumulate crystals, dissolution surfaces and pipes and mudcracked microcrystalline salt crusts, which were deposited in saline pans dominated by flooding, evaporative concentration and desiccation. Chaotic halite, composed of red‐bed mudstone and siltstone with displacive halite crystals, formed in saline mudflats. Red‐bed mudstone and siltstone with little or no displacive halite, but with abundant cracking, root and plant features, suggest deposition in a dry mudflat. Red‐bed sandstone, composed of well‐sorted, well‐rounded quartz grains cemented with halite, indicate aeolian and rare shallow‐water deposition. Most deposition took place in halite‐dominated ephemeral saline lakes surrounded by saline and dry mudflats, sandflats and sand dunes. Evaporation, desiccation, flooding and wind played significant roles in this environment. The Nippewalla Group siliciclastics and evaporites represent an evolution from a perennial lacustrine system to a non‐marine, acidic saline pan system in the mid‐continent of North America. The problem of distinguishing between ancient marine and non‐marine evaporites, as well as recognizing those evaporites deposited in acid settings, with detailed field, core and petrographical study of both evaporite deposits and associated sedimentary rocks has successfully been addressed. In addition, interpretations of mid‐Permian palaeoclimate data in the form of short‐term air temperature proxies within longer‐term wet–dry trends have been made. These data provide a new palaeogeographic and palaeoclimatic model for the mid‐Permian of western Pangaea.     

Variation in pyrite size, form, and microlithotype association in the springfield (no. 9) and herrin (no. 11) coals, Western Kentucky

Channel samples of the Springfield (No. 9) and Herrin (No. 11) (Pennsylvanian, Desmoinesian/Westphalian D) coals were acquired in three mines each in the Western Kentucky coal field. Pyrite was characterized petrographically in terms of its size, form, and microlithotype association. Within each coal seam significant variations in the amount of pyrite of certain forms occurred between the sites. Pyritic sulfur as determined chemically did not exhibit significant variation between the seams or between the sites. The variation in dendritic pyrite in vitrite plus clarite between seams and between sites was highly significant and the variation in framboidal pyrite in vitrite plus clarite between sites was also highly significant.     

The Geochemistry of Supraglacial Streams of Canada Glacier,Taylor Valley (Antarctica), and their Evolution into Proglacial Waters

We have investigated the geochemistry of supraglacial streams on the Canada Glacier, Taylor Valley, Antarctica during the 2001–2002 austral summer. Canada Glacier supraglacial streams represent the link between primary precipitation (i.e. glacier snow) and proglacial Lake Hoare. Canada Glacier supraglacial stream geochemistry is intermediate between glacier snow and proglacial stream geochemistry with average concentrations of 49.1 μeq L⁻¹ Ca2+, 19.9 μeq L⁻¹ SO₄²⁻, and 34.3 μeq L⁻¹ HCO₃⁻. Predominant west to east winds lead to a redistribution of readily soluble salts onto the glacier surface, which is reflected in the geochemistry of the supraglacial streams. Western Canada Glacier supraglacial streams have average SO₄²⁻:HCO₃⁻ equivalent ratios of 1.0, while eastern supraglacial streams average 0.5, suggesting more sulfate salts reach and dissolve in the western supraglacial streams. A graph of HCO₃⁻ versus Ca2+ for western and eastern supraglacial streams had slopes of 0.87 and 0.72, respectively with R2 values of 0.84 and 0.83. Low concentrations of reactive silicate (> 10 μmol L⁻¹) in the supraglacial streams suggested that little to no silicate weathering occurred on the glacier surface with the exception of cryoconite holes (1000 μmol L⁻¹). Therefore, the major geochemical weathering process occurring in the supraglacial streams is believed to be calcite dissolution. Proglacial stream, Anderson Creek, contains higher concentrations of major ions than supraglacial streams containing 5 times the Ca²⁺ and 10 times the SO₄²⁻. Canada Glacier proglacial streams also contain higher concentrations (16.6–30.6 μeq L⁻¹) of reactive silicate than supraglacial streams. This suggests that the controls on glacier meltwater geochemistry switch from calcite and gypsum dissolution to both salt dissolution and silicate mineral weathering as the glacier meltwater evolves. Our chemical mass balance calculations indicate that of the total discharge into Lake Hoare, the final recipient of Canada Glacier meltwater, 81.9% is from direct glacier runoff and 19.1% is from proglacial Andersen Creek. Although during a typical, low melt ablation season Andersen Creek contributes over 40% of the water added to Lake Hoare, its overall chemical importance is diluted by the direct inputs from Canada Glacier during high flow years. Decadal warming events, such as the 2001–2002 austral summer produce supraglacial streams that are a major source of water to Lake Hoare.     

Use of archaeology to date liquefaction features and seismic events in the New Madrid seismic zone,Central United States

Prehistoric earthquake-induced liquefaction features occur in association with Native American occupation horizons in the New Madrid seismic zone. Age control of these liquefaction features, including sand-blow deposits, sand-blow craters, and sand dikes, can be accomplished by extensive sampling and flotation processing of datable materials as well as archaeobotanical analysis of associated archaeological horizons and pits. This approach increases both the amount of carbon for radiocarbon dating and the precision dating of artifact assemblages. Using this approach, we dated liquefaction features at four sites northwest of Blytheville, Arkansas, and found that at least one significant earthquake occurred in the New Madrid seismic zone between A.D. 1180 and 1400, probably about A.D. 1300 ± 100 yr. In addition, we found three buried sand blows that formed between 3340 B.C. and A.D. 780. In this region where very large to great earthquakes appear to be closely timed, archaeology is helping to develop a paleoearthquake chronology for the New Madrid seismic zone. © 1996 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.