The Phase A study of the ESA M4 mission candidate ARIEL

ARIEL, the Atmospheric Remote sensing Infrared Exoplanet Large survey, is one of the three M-class mission candidates competing for the M4 launch slot within the Cosmic Vision science programme of the European Space Agency (ESA). As such, ARIEL has been the subject of a Phase A study that involved European industry, research institutes and universities from ESA member states. This study is now completed and the M4 down-selection is expected to be concluded in November 2017. ARIEL is a concept for a dedicated mission to measure the chemical composition and structure of hundreds of exoplanet atmospheres using the technique of transit spectroscopy. ARIEL targets extend from gas giants (Jupiter or Neptune-like) to super-Earths in the very hot to warm zones of F to M-type host stars, opening up the way to large-scale, comparative planetology that would place our own Solar System in the context of other planetary systems in the Milky Way. A technical and programmatic review of the ARIEL mission was performed between February and May 2017, with the objective of assessing the readiness of the mission to progress to the Phase B1 study. No critical issues were identified and the mission was deemed technically feasible within the M4 programmatic boundary conditions. In this paper we give an overview of the final mission concept for ARIEL as of the end of the Phase A study, from scientific, technical and operational perspectives.     

The Axis of Evil revisited

In light of the three-year data release from the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe , we re-examine the evidence for the 'Axis of Evil' (AoE). We discover that previous statistics are not robust with respect to the data sets available and different treatments of the Galactic plane. We identify the cause of the instability and implement an alternative 'model selection' approach. A comparison to Gaussian isotropic simulations finds the features significant at the 94–98 per cent level, depending on the particular AoE model. The Bayesian evidence finds lower significance, ranging from 'substantial' at  Δ(ln  E ) ∼ 1.4  to no evidence for the most general AoE model.     

Natural hazard impacts in small island developing states: A review of current knowledge and future research needs

Small island developing states (or SIDS) are exposed to a large number of natural hazards and many characteristics of small island developing states make them particularly vulnerable to the impacts of natural hazards. In spite of this acknowledged vulnerability, there are relatively few studies which focus on the impacts of natural hazards in these countries. This paper presents a review of our current state of knowledge of impacts in small island developing states and highlights a number of research needs. Central to these is the need to integrate natural hazards research within a sustainable development context and the need to exploit existing procedures such as government coordinated disaster impact assessments to generate a detailed understanding of natural hazards impacts.     

Arsenic sequestration by sorption processes in high-iron sediments

High-iron sediments in North Haiwee Reservoir (Olancha, CA), resulting from water treatment for removal of elevated dissolved arsenic in the Los Angeles Aqueduct system, were studied to examine arsenic partitioning between solid phases and porewaters undergoing shallow burial. To reduce arsenic in drinking water supplies, ferric chloride and a cationic polymer coagulant are added to the aqueduct upstream of Haiwee Reservoir, forming an iron-rich floc that scavenges arsenic from the water. Analysis by synchrotron X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) showed that the aqueduct precipitate is an amorphous hydrous ferric oxide (HFO) similar to ferrihydrite, and that arsenic is associated with the floc as adsorbed and/or coprecipitated As(V). Arsenic-rich floc and sediments are deposited along the inlet channel as aqueduct waters enter the reservoir. Sediment core samples were collected in two consecutive years from the edge of the reservoir along the inlet channel using 30- or 90-cm push cores. Cores were analyzed for total and extractable arsenic and iron concentrations. Arsenic and iron speciation and mineralogy in sediments were examined at selected depths by synchrotron XAS and X-ray diffraction (XRD). Sediment-porewater measurements were made adjacent to the core sample sites using polyacrylamide gel probe samplers. Results showed that sediment As(V) is reduced to As(III) in all cores at or near the sediment-water interface (0-4 cm), and only As(III) was observed in deeper sediments. Analyses of EXAFS spectra indicated that arsenic is present in the sediments mostly as a bidentate-binuclear, inner-sphere sorption complex with local atomic geometries similar to those found in laboratory studies. Below about 10 cm depth, XAS indicated that the HFO floc had been reduced to a mixed Fe(II, III) solid with a local structure similar to that of synthetic green rust (GR) but with a slightly contracted average interatomic Fe-Fe distance in the hydroxide layer. There was no evidence from XRD for the formation of a crystalline GR phase. The release of dissolved iron (presumably Fe²⁺) and arsenic to solution, as monitored by in situ gel probes, was variable but, in general, occurred at greater depths than arsenic reduction in the sediments by spectroscopic observations and appears to be near or below the depth at which sediment GR was identified. These data point to reductive dissolution of the sorbent iron phase as the primary mechanism of release of sorbed arsenic to solution.     

Model evaluation experiments in the North Atlantic Basin: simulations in nonlinear terrain-following coordinates

A primitive equation ocean circulation model in nonlinear terrain-following coordinates is applied to a decadal-length simulation of the circulation in the North Atlantic Ocean. In addition to the stretched sigma coordinate, novel features of the model include the utilization of a weakly dissipative, third-order scheme for tracer advection, and a conservative and constancy-preserving time-stepping algorithm. The objectives of the study are to assess the quality of the new terrain-following model in the limit of realistic basin-scale simulations, and to compare the results obtained with it against those of other North Atlantic models used in recent multi-model comparison studies.The new model is able to reproduce many features of both the wind-driven and thermohaline circulation, and to do so within error bounds comparable with prior model simulations (e.g., CME and DYNAMO). Quantitative comparison with comparable results obtained with the Miami Isopycnic Coordinate Model (MICOM) show our terrain-following solutions are of similar overall quality when viewed against known measures of merit including meridional overturning and heat flux, Florida Straits and Gulf Stream transport, seasonal cycling of temperature and salinity, and upper ocean currents and tracer fields in the eastern North Atlantic Basin. Sensitivity studies confirm that the nonlinear vertical coordinate contributes significantly to model fidelity, and that the global inventories and spatial structure of the tracer fields are affected in important ways by the choice of lateral advection scheme.     

Ecologically Sustainable Fishing in Theory and Practice: Individual transferable quotas in Australia's South East Fishery

In 1988, responding to international legislation that requires sustainable fishery management, the Australian Fishery Management Authority (AFMA) implemented an individual transferable quota (ITQ) management system to address the environmental crisis in the South East Fishery. Defining sustainability in its broadest context to include social as well as economic and ecological dimensions, this paper firstly describes the environmental crisis and the South East Fishery's ITQ management system. Secondly, Christy's (1973) paper is employed as a catalyst to compare the theoretical socio-economic outcomes with the actual operation of ITQs. The brief South East Fishery experience suggests that the logic behind ITQs is correct. Production has become reorganised. Operators are not only fewer, but also embrace professionalism, quality, efficiency, and the operation of the free market within the industry. However, because of the local idiosyncrasies of this multi-species fishery, the legislation over territorial waters, and the absence of alternative employment, fishers have adopted non-quota fishing techniques and entered seas under New South Wales jurisdiction. Without a social re-adjustment policy or buy-out scheme, the AFMA's objective of ecologically sustainable development cannot be attained.     

Granular Controls on Periodicity of Stick-Slip Events: Kinematics and Force-Chains in an Experimental Fault

It is a long-standing question whether granular fault material such as gouge plays a major role in controlling fault dynamics such as seismicity and slip-periodicity. In both natural and experimental faults, granular materials resist shear and accommodate strain via interparticle friction, fracture toughness, fluid pressure, dilation, and interparticle rearrangements. Here, we isolate the effects of particle rearrangements on granular deformation through laboratory experiments. Within a sheared photoelastic granular aggregate at constant volume, we simultaneously visualize both particle-scale kinematics and interparticle forces, the latter taking the form of force-chains. We observe stick-slip deformation and associated force drops during an overall strengthening of the shear zone. This strengthening regime provides insight into granular rheology and conditions of stick-slip periodicity, and may be qualitatively analogous to slip that accompanies longer term interseismic strengthening of natural faults. Of particular note is the observation that increasing the packing density increases the stiffness of the granular aggregate and decreases the damping (increases time-scales) during slip events. At relatively loose packing density, the slip displacements during the events follow an approximately power-law distribution, as opposed to an exponential distribution at higher packing density. The system exhibits switching between quasi-periodic and aperiodic slip behavior at all packing densities. Higher packing densities favor quasi-periodic behavior, with a longer time interval between aperiodic events than between quasi-periodic events. This difference in the time-scale of aperiodic stick-slip deformation is reflected in both the kinematics of interparticle slip and the force-chain dynamics: all major force-chain reorganizations are associated with aperiodic events. Our experiments conceptually link observations of natural fault dynamics with current models for granular stick-slip dynamics. We find that the stick-slip dynamics are consistent with a driven harmonic oscillator model with damping provided by an effective viscosity, and that shear-transformation-zone, jamming, and crackling noise theories provide insight into the effective stiffness and patterns of shear localization during deformation.     

Defining an absolute reference frame for ‘clumped’ isotope studies of CO2

We present a revised approach for standardizing and reporting analyses of multiply substituted isotopologues of CO₂ (i.e., ‘clumped’ isotopic species, especially the mass-47 isotopologues). Our approach standardizes such data to an absolute reference frame based on theoretical predictions of the abundances of multiply-substituted isotopologues in gaseous CO₂ at thermodynamic equilibrium. This reference frame is preferred over an inter-laboratory calibration of carbonates because it enables all laboratories measuring mass 47 CO₂ to use a common scale that is tied directly to theoretical predictions of clumping in CO₂, regardless of the laboratory’s primary research field (carbonate thermometry or CO₂ biogeochemistry); it explicitly accounts for mass spectrometric artifacts rather than convolving (and potentially confusing) them with chemical fractionations associated with sample preparation; and it is based on a thermodynamic equilibrium that can be experimentally established in any suitably equipped laboratory using commonly available materials.By analyzing CO₂ gases that have been subjected to established laboratory procedures known to promote isotopic equilibrium (i.e., heated gases and water-equilibrated CO₂), and by reference to thermodynamic predictions of equilibrium isotopic distributions, it is possible to construct an empirical transfer function that is applicable to data with unknown clumped isotope signatures. This transfer function empirically accounts for the fragmentation and recombination reactions that occur in electron impact ionization sources and other mass spectrometric artifacts. We describe the protocol necessary to construct such a reference frame, the method for converting gases with unknown clumped isotope compositions to this reference frame, and suggest a protocol for ensuring that all reported isotopic compositions (e.g., Δ₄₇ values; [Eiler and Schauble, 2004] and [Eiler, 2007]) can be compared among different laboratories and instruments, independent of laboratory-specific analytical or methodological differences. We then discuss the use of intra-laboratory secondary reference frames (e.g., based on carbonate standards) that can be more easily used to track the evolution of each laboratory’s empirical transfer function. Finally, we show inter-laboratory reproducibility on the order of ±0.010 (1σ) for four carbonate standards, and present revised paleotemperature scales that should be used to convert carbonate clumped isotope signatures to temperature when using the absolute reference frame described here. Even when using the reference frame, small discrepancies remain between two previously published synthetic carbonate calibrations. We discuss possible reasons for these discrepancies, and highlight the need for additional low temperature (<15 °C) synthetic carbonate experiments.