What do near-term observations tell us about long-term developments in greenhouse gas emissions?

Long-term scenarios developed by integrated assessment models are used in climate research to provide an indication of plausible long-term emissions of greenhouse gases and other radiatively active substances based on developments in the global energy system, land-use and the emissions associated with these systems. The phenomena that determine these long-term developments (several decades or even centuries) are very different than those that operate on a shorter time-scales (a few years). Nevertheless, in the literature, we still often find direct comparisons between short-term observations and long-term developments that do not take into account the differing dynamics over these time scales. In this letter, we discuss some of the differences between the factors that operate in the short term and those that operate in the long term. We use long-term historical emissions trends to show that short-term observations are very poor indicators of long-term future emissions developments. Based on this, we conclude that the performance of long-term scenarios should be evaluated against the appropriate, corresponding long-term variables and trends. The research community may facilitate this by developing appropriate data sets and protocols that can be used to test the performance of long-term scenarios and the models that produce them.     

Accounting for indirect effects and non-commensurate values in ecosystem based fishery management (EBFM)

Ecosystem-based fishery management (EBFM) requires taking account of indirect effects (such as habitat destruction, incidental mortality, and competition between the fishery and marine mammals or birds) and dealing with non-commensurate values (such as yield from the fishery and production of offspring by the birds or mammals competing for the same resource). The perspective of EBFM requires that the rate of fishing mortality is less than the value that provides maximum sustainable yield (MSY), but the question is how far below this level should the fishery operate? For this problem in multiobjective programming, simple method of solution was developed and illustrated with the fishery for sandeels (Ammodytes spp.) in the Shetland Islands. The yield from the fishery at a given fishing mortality F is scaled by MSY (so that this quantity increases as fishing mortality increases from 0 to that giving MSY) and the breeding success of predators (black-legged kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla and Arctic terns Sterna paradisaea) at a given fishing mortality is scaled by that in the absence of fishing. The result is two non-dimensional quantities that can be combined into a single value function, which can then be explored or optimized. It is shown that a reduction of only about 20 percent in yield can nearly double the breeding performance of the more sensitive predator. Extensions of the method are discussed; these include the use of maximum economic yield (MEY) and state dependent life history, as implemented by stochastic dynamic programming.     

Health profiles of Hamilton: Spatial characterisation of neighbourhoods for health investigations

This paper is part of a larger research program which employs a mixed-methods approach to study the determinants of health at the local level using specific neighborhoods in Hamilton, Ontario, Canada. In this paper, multivariate, spatial statistical techniques and geographic information systems are used to address questions about the characterization of neighbourhoods, based on socioeconomic determinants of health and risk factors such as smoking. While neighbourhood characterization has been a component of public health surveillance for some time, geostatistical techniques can now be used to derive more accurate representation of neighbourhoods for use in subsequent analysis. We utilize principal components analysis to reduce the data and extract the components that represent the underlying local processes. Principal components are also overlayed on comparative mortality figures to visualize where the socio-demographic determinants of health correspond spatially with mortality patterns. Predicted values from the components are then analysed for spatial clustering using local indicators of spatial association. The findings reveal a pattern of distinct neighbourhoods that will be used in subsequent quantitative and qualitative stages in the larger research programme. The results can also be used to inform public health policy and to target public health interventions.     

“Miss Remington” Goes to Work: Gender,Space, and Technology at the Dawn of the Information Age*

At the end of the 19th century, the financial services sector underwent a technological “revolution” with the invention of the typewriter, dictaphone, and hollerith machine. At the same time, the gender of labor within this sector was also changing, such that by the end of the first quarter of the 20th century, most of the work taking place in white‐collar offices was performed by women. After introducing the broader research project on which this is based, I consider how technology and social relations shaped one another at the level of the body, the workplace, and with broader networks of branch banking, focusing on early 20th‐century Montreal, Canada. I argue that the financial services sector worked to create a system in which men flowed through and women functioned as fixed points. I further argue that this pattern was echoed at different scales within the financial services industry, from the level of the body and the workplace up through spatially dispersed national‐level networks.     

Spatial variability of metals in the inter-tidal sediments of the Medway Estuary,Kent, UK

Concentrations of major and trace metals were determined in eight sediment cores collected from the inter-tidal zone of the Medway Estuary, Kent, UK. Metal associations and potential sources have been investigated using principal component analysis. These data provide the first detailed geochemical survey of recent sediments in the Medway Estuary. Metal concentrations in surface sediments lie in the mid to lower range for UK estuarine sediments indicating that the Medway receives low but appreciable contaminant inputs. Vertical metal distributions reveal variable redox zonation across the estuary and historically elevated anthropogenic inputs. Peak concentrations of Cu, Pb and Zn can be traced laterally across the estuary and their positions indicate periods of past erosion and/or non-deposition. However, low rates of sediment accumulation do not allow these sub surface maxima to be used as accurate geochemical marker horizons. The salt marshes and inter-tidal mud flats in the Medway Estuary are experiencing erosion, however the erosion of historically contaminated sediments is unlikely to re-release significant amounts of heavy metals to the estuarine system.     

U-Pb ages and tectonomagmatic relationships of early Ordovician low-Ti tholeiites, boninites and related plutonic rocks in central Newfoundland, Canada

The Wild Bight Group (WBG) and South Lake Igneous Complex (SLIC) together comprise one of the Ordovician accreted oceanic terranes of the central mobile belt of the Newfoundland Appalachians. Combined detailed mapping, geochemistry, Sm-Nd isotopic studies and U-Pb geochronology have shown that sheeted dykes and hornblende diorite and tonalite plutons of the SLIC are genetically related to a discrete package of volcanic rocks in the WBG. These igneous rocks are geochemically, isotopically and temporally distinct from volcanic rocks in the rest of the WBG. Plutonic rocks of the SLIC range in age from 486 ± 3 Ma to 489 ± 3 Ma, and a cross-cutting gabbro dyke gives a minimum age of 486 ± 4 Ma for the related volcanic sequence. Volcanic rocks in the rest of the WBG sequence are predominantly younger than 472 ± 3 Ma. The older volcanic sequence of the WBG and the SLIC occur as fault-bounded packages interleaved within the younger WBG sequence. A conformable stratigraphic relationship between the older and younger sequences of the WBG has not been demonstrated. The mafic rocks of the older package include boninites and low-Ti, high-Mg tholeiitic island arc basalts which are interpreted to be genetically related, and normal island arc tholeiites (IAT). The high-Mg mafic rocks are interpreted to have formed in an extensional setting during subduction zone initiation, and the normal IAT are thought to represent stabilisation of the volcanic front. The associated high-Si, low-K rhyolite and tonalite are interpreted to be the products of secondary melting at the base of thickened early arc crust. Sm-Nd isotopic compositions indicate that the characteristic trace element signature of the boninites developed at or near their time of generation and was not a long lived characteristic of the source region. The boninites and low-Ti tholeiites are interpreted to have originated from a similar source, which was metasomatized by different subduction-related components. Apparent decoupling of Sm-Nd geochemical and isotopic compositions suggests that these very depleted rocks may be recording the effect of subduction zone processes not yet fully understood. Received: 31 October 1997 / Accepted: 6 May 1998     

Landuse mapping by air photo technique

Land use on earth's landscape primarly indicates the degree of human interferance. Though landuse is controlled by several factors like soil, hydrologic, climatic, socio-economic and political yet geology and geomorphology play an important role in shaping landforms. The landforms processes mainly depend upon inherent lithology and structure of the earth. In the present paper an attempt has been made to study a sample area by air photo-interpretation technique using stereo-models and then evolve a methodology of land use mapping like photogeological and photopedological aspects. Also in brief, environmental aspects have been discussed. A sample area of 15 sq kms has been studied. The study opens up a new dimension for appreciation of resource and landuse management     

Africa in the rise of rights-based development

This paper explores the rise of rights-based development (RBD) and its endorsement by prominent international institutions (such as the United Nations) and International Development Agencies (IDAs) like the World Bank. It situates RBD in global political context and analyses it in relation to the international politics of development, especially the politics of neo-liberal adjustment policies in Africa. The paper shows how RBD emerged against a backdrop of debate about four international issues associated with neo-liberalism and its discontents, namely globalisation and uneven development; capability and good governance; human rights and human development; and NGOs in the politics of development. Debates about those four issues keep repositioning the state as the central actor in RBD, and holding the state accountable for development (or the lack thereof) under international law. The paper’s basic point is that state-centric RBD is paradoxical and highly political. Greater accountability is being demanded of states––especially in Africa––from the same neo-liberal forces (such as the World Bank) charged with weakening state capacity, undermining democracy, and diminishing state authority. In terms of international power relations and the politics of development, RBD does signal something of a willingness to rethink certain aspects of the dominant neo-liberal agenda. And yet adjusted states are being subjected––in the name of RBD––to novel methods of international surveillance and forms of conditionality. States are ultimately held responsible for human rights violations, even when it is non-state actors (and their neo-liberal policies) that caused those rights to be violated in the first place. RBD is, therefore, a partial answer (at best) to the questions of empowerment and change raised by critics of neo-liberalism.