Evaluating environmental drivers of Holocene changes in water chemistry and aquatic biota composition at Lake Loitsana,NE Finland

This study presents a detailed analysis of geochemical and biotic proxies in a lake sediment profile to assess the effects of local and regional environmental drivers on the Holocene development of Lake Loitsana, situated in the northern boreal forest of NE Finland. Multi-proxy studies, in particular those that include a detailed plant macrofossil record, from the part of the northern boreal zone of Fennoscandia which has not been affected by treeline fluctuations, are scarce and few of these records date back to the earliest part of the Holocene. A 9-m sediment sequence of gyttja overlying silts representing the last c. 10,700 cal year, allowed for a high-resolution study with emphasis on the early to mid-Holocene lake history. The lacustrine sediments were studied using lithology, loss-on-ignition and C/N ratios, micro- and macro-fossils of aquatic and wetland taxa, diatoms, chironomids and accelerator mass spectrometry ¹⁴C dating on terrestrial plant macrofossils. Our study shows that the local development at Loitsana was complex and included a distinct glacial lake phase and subsequent drainage, a history of fluvial input affected by nearby wetland expansion, and lake infilling in an eventual esker-fed shallow lake. Enhanced trophic conditions, due to morphometric eutrophication, are recorded as Glacial Lake Sokli drained and open water conditions became restricted to a relatively small Lake Loitsana depression. pH appears to have been stable throughout the Holocene with a well-buffered lake due to the local carbonatite bedrock (Sokli Carbonatite Massif). The fossil assemblage changes are best explained by a complex mixture of drivers, including water-body conditions (i.e. depth, turbidity and turbulence), rate of sediment input, and the general infilling of the lake, highlighting the need to carefully evaluate the possible influence of such local factors as palaeoenvironmental conditions are reconstructed based on aquatic proxies.     

The politics and policy of carbon capture and storage: Framing an emergent technology

Over the past decade carbon capture and storage (CCS) has attracted increasing international attention as a climate change mitigation option and moved into the center of climate policy debates and negotiations. This special issue of Global Environmental Change brings together leading scholars to analyze the politics, policy and regulation of CCS in cross-country comparisons as well as in a global context. The aim is to contribute on two fronts: first, by applying concepts, theories and methodologies from the social and policy sciences, to elucidate how societies are engaging with CCS as a mitigation option; and secondly, to point toward a future research agenda which, while exploring basic aspects of technology development as situated in a social context, would also be aligned with the needs of the climate and environmental policy community. The contributions address at least one of three inter-related research areas; CCS and the emergence of long-term climate and energy strategies; regulation, policy instruments and public acceptance; and international politics and CCS in developing countries.     

Istanbul Earthquake Rapid Response System: Methods and practices

Potential impact of large earthquakes on urban societies can be reduced by timely and correct action after a disastrous earthquake. Modern technology permits measurements of strong ground shaking in near real-time for urban areas exposed to earthquake risk. The Istanbul Earthquake Rapid Response System equipped with 100 instruments and two data processing centers aims at the near real time estimation of earthquake damages using most recently developed methodologies and up-to-date structural and demographic inventories of Istanbul city. The methodology developed for near real time estimation of losses after a major earthquake consists of the following general steps: (1) rapid estimation of the ground motion distribution using the strong ground motion data gathered from the instruments; (2) improvement of the ground motion estimations as earthquake parameters become available and (3) estimation of building damage and casualties based on estimated ground motions and intensities. The present paper elaborates on the ground motion and damage estimation methodologies used by the Istanbul Earthquake Rapid Response System with a special emphasis on validation and verification of the different methods.     

A simulation of probabilistic wildfire risk components for the continental United States

This simulation research was conducted in order to develop a large-fire risk assessment system for the contiguous land area of the United States. The modeling system was applied to each of 134 Fire Planning Units (FPUs) to estimate burn probabilities and fire size distributions. To obtain stable estimates of these quantities, fire ignition and growth was simulated for 10,000 to 50,000 “years” of artificial weather. The fire growth simulations, when run repeatedly with different weather and ignition locations, produce burn probabilities and fire behavior distributions at each landscape location (e.g., number of times a “cell” burns at a given intensity divided by the total years). The artificial weather was generated for each land unit using (1) a fire danger rating index known as the Energy Release Component (ERC) which is a proxy for fuel moisture contents, (2) a time-series analysis of ERC to represent daily and seasonal variability, and (3) distributions of wind speed and direction from weather records. Large fire occurrence was stochastically modeled based on historical relationships to ERC. The simulations also required spatial data on fuel structure and topography which were acquired from the LANDFIRE project (). Fire suppression effects were represented by a statistical model that yields a probability of fire containment based on independent predictors of fire growth rates and fuel type. The simulated burn probabilities were comparable to observed patterns across the U.S. over the range of four orders of magnitude, generally falling within a factor of 3 or 4 of historical estimates. Close agreement between simulated and historical fire size distributions suggest that fire sizes are determined by the joint distributions of spatial opportunities for fire growth (dependent on fuels and ignition location) and the temporal opportunities produced by conducive weather sequences. The research demonstrates a practical approach to using fire simulations at very broad scales for purposes of operational planning and perhaps ecological research.     

A Unifying Phase Diagram for the Dynamics of Sheared Solids and Granular Materials

We present a simple unifying model that can be used to analyze, within a single framework, different dynamic regimes of shear deformation of brittle, plastic, and granular materials. The basic dynamic regimes seen in the response of both solids and granular materials to slowly increasing loading are scale-invariant behavior with power law statistics, quasi-periodicity of system size events, and persisting long term mode switching between the former two types of response. The model provides universal analytical mean field results on the statistics of failure events in the different regimes and distributed versus localized spatial responses. The results are summarized in a phase diagram spanned by three tuning parameters: dynamic strength change (weakening, neutral or strengthening) during slip events, dissipation of stress transfer (related to the void fraction in granular materials and damaged solids), and the ratio of shear rate over healing rate controlling the regaining of cohesion following failures in brittle solids. The mean field scaling predictions agree with experimental, numerical, and observational data on deformation avalanches of solids, granular materials, and earthquake faults. The model provides additional predictions that should be tested with future observation and simulation data.     

Mapping areas of potential slope failures in cohesive soils using a shadow-casting algorithm – A case study from SW Sweden

When performing landslide susceptibility mapping of rotational slides in fine grained soils, slope algorithms found in common GIS software have two major shortcomings. Firstly, these types of terrain algorithms only consider the slope angle at the surface. Secondly, the algorithm is local by its design i.e. it only considers neighbouring pixels. Due to the behaviour of a retrogressive rotational landslide, it would be more preferable to consider slope information as a predetermined cross-section angle from the base of the slope. This paper presents a new method using shadow casting algorithms for preliminary landslide susceptibility mapping in cohesive soils. A case study from western Sweden is also presented.     

The geographic distribution of strontium isotopes in Danish surface waters - A base for provenance studies in archaeology, hydrology and agriculture

In this paper Sr isotope signatures are reported for 192 surface water (lakes/ponds and rivers/creeks) samples from within Denmark and an isotope distribution map is presented that may serve as a base for provenance applications, including archaeological migration studies, ground water - surface water - seawater interaction/contamination monitoring, and potentially for agricultural applications, including cases of authenticity proof for particular food products. The Sr isotopic compositions of surface waters range from ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr = 0.7078 to 0.7125 (average 0.7096 ± 0.0016; 2σ). This average value lies above the range of ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr values between 0.7078 and 0.7082 expected from Late Cretaceous to Early Tertiary (Oligocene) limestones which form the dominant bedrock type in a NW-SE trending belt in Denmark. The elevated ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr signatures >∼0.7095 are explained by additions to the surface waters of radiogenic Sr predominantly derived from the near-surface weathering and wash-out of Quarternary glaciogenic tills and soils deposited and formed during and after the last two ice age stages (Saale and Weichsel). The Sr isotopic compositions and concentrations of the surface waters can, therefore, best be modeled by a two-component mixing involving carbonaceous bedrock and glaciogenic cover sediments as the two predominant Sr sources. A feasibility study for using Sr isotopic compositions of surface waters as a proxy for bio-available Sr signatures was conducted in a representative test area on Zealand (Land of Legends, Lejre) where there is no use and application of commercial fertilizers. It is demonstrated that the Sr isotopic signatures of lake waters from within this area are slightly higher (but statistically still indistinguishable) from the average value defined by snail shells and soil leachates considered to characterize the true bio-available Sr. In combination with results from other studies, this is interpreted to reflect the wash-out of Sr with a higher ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr signature released by weathering in the topsoils into the saturated water tables, a component which is consequently not readily transferred into the shallow-rooting plants and into small herbivores feeding on them. Since drinking water is a likely important source of Sr uptake of humans and larger animals, the contention is that a surface water isotopic composition can potentially characterize the bio-available component relevant for human and carnivorous large animals. Spline functions and ordinary linear kriging were used for modeling the geographic distribution of bio-available Sr isotopes over territorial Denmark. As expected, based on the two-source mixing scenario, the water ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratio contour maps (with some notable exceptions) neither mirror the pre-Quarternary bedrock geology nor a (Pleistocene) soil-type distribution map of Denmark.As a conservative suggestion, the use of the average ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratio of 0.7096 ± 0.0015 (2σ) is recommended as an average for bio-available Sr from within Denmark (Bornholm excluded) for human and larger animals and as a confidence band for distinguishing “local” from “non-local” signatures in archaeological provenance studies. The study also reveals that the average ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratio of ∼0.7088 defined from soil extracts and small herbivores lies approximately 0.15% lower than that defined by the surface waters. The authors recommend using this lower value as a “local”-“non-local” discriminator for food and plant authenticity control in agricultural applications.     

Character and origin of variably deformed granitoids in central southern Sweden: implications from geochemistry and Nd isotopes

We present major and trace element data for eighteen 1.71–1.66 Ga granitoid samples, and Sm–Nd whole‐rock isotope data for eleven of these samples, in a transect across the border between the Transscandinavian Igneous Belt (TIB) and the Eastern Segment in central southern Sweden. The geochemistry of the granitoids varies from alkalic to alkali‐calcic and peraluminous in the east to predominantly calc‐alkaline and metaluminous in the west. Rocks in the west also have lower SiO₂ contents. Trace element signatures favour formation in an active continental margin setting. Nd isotope data are completely overlapping along the transect and initial ε_Nd values are mildly depleted in the range +0.3 to +2.6. The combined data suggest that the magmas were derived mainly from juvenile, pre‐existing crust, increasingly mafic and less alkaline towards the west. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Community structure in boreal lakes with recurring blooms of the nuisance flagellate Gonyostomum semen

Blooms of the nontoxic raphidophyte Gonyostomum semen have shown a recent increase in frequency and distribution in the Fennoscandian region. Due to large cell size and several grazer-avoidance strategies, G. semen is hypothesized to be inedible for most zooplankton species and therefore may constitute a bottleneck for the transfer of energy and nutrients in pelagic food webs. Repression of other phytoplankton through increased competition and induced mortality could further exacerbate this effect. In a field study of four lakes with recurring blooms of G. semen and four lakes without blooms, we found significant differences in community structure between the two lake groups during the bloom period. Bloom-lakes had lower biovolumes of small chrysophytes and chlorophytes and zooplankton assemblages were predominated by small, potentially bacterivorous cladocerans, suggesting a limited availability of edible phytoplankton and an increased importance of microbial pathways during G. semen blooms. Low biovolumes of large cladocerans in bloom-lakes may be due to interference of G. semen with filter feeding. Moreover, high abundances of the phantom midge Chaoborus flavicans in bloom-lakes suggest that the flow of energy and nutrients is directed more towards this invertebrate predator than fish. This could have negative impacts on fish populations, especially if bloom periods are prolonged.     

Using Lead Isotopes to Determine Pottery Provenance in Cyprus: Clay Source Signatures and Comparison with Late Bronze Age Cypriote Pottery

This paper presents the lead isotopic composition of potential clay sources for pottery production, collected in the four major geological zones of Cyprus (Troodos Ophiolite, Circum Troodos Sedimentary Succession, Mamonia Terrane, Kyrenia Terrane) and evaluates its usefulness in Cypriote pottery provenance studies. The clay isotopic signatures from the four zones are compared to each other and to the isotopic composition of various utilitarian pottery wares from three Late Bronze Age sites, respectively located in southern Cyprus (Alassa‐Pano Mandilaris), east Cyprus (Enkomi), and southeast Cyprus (Hala Sultan Tekke). It also explores the potential of this method to better discriminate between potential raw materials used for the production of Base‐ring ware, one of the most characteristic fine pottery of Late Bronze Age Cyprus, which was widely spread in the Eastern Mediterranean (Courtois, 1981; Vaughan, 1991, 1994). Results show that three main lead isotopic fields can be distinguished among the Cypriote clay sources and the comparison of Plain sherds with the clay sources allows discrimination between local products and imports. They also clearly indicate that all the Base‐ring sherds analyzed in this study were made of the clays from the Kathikas Formation that crops out in only limited parts of southwest Cyprus.