The clean development mechanism’s contribution to sustainable development: a review of the literature

The challenges of how to respond to climate change and ensure sustainable development are currently high on the political agenda among the world’s leading nations. The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) is part of the global carbon market developing rapidly as part of the Kyoto response towards the mitigation of global warming. One of the aims of the CDM is to achieve sustainable development in developing countries, but uncertainty prevails as to whether the CDM is doing what it promises to do. Close to 200 studies on the CDM have been carried out since its birth in 1997 including peer-reviewed articles and reports from the grey literature. This review of the literature serves to assess the state of knowledge on how the CDM contributes to sustainable development (SD) including poverty alleviation. The main finding of the review is that, left to market forces, the CDM does not significantly contribute to sustainable development.     

An 'outside-in' outburst of Aql X–1

We present optical spectroscopy and optical and infrared photometry of the neutron star soft X-ray transient Aql X–1 during its X-ray outburst of 1997 August. By modelling the X-ray, optical and IR light curves, we find a 3-d delay between the IR and X-ray rise times, analogous to the UV–optical delay seen in dwarf novae outbursts and black hole X-ray transients. We interpret this delay as the signature of an 'outside-in' outburst, in which a thermal instability in the outer disc propagates inward. This outburst is the first of this type definitively identified in a neutron star X-ray transient.     

Tropical Deforestation and Climate Change: What Does the Record Reveal?

Tropical deforestation is widely believed to directly influence the climate at a number of scales. Yet while much has been written about the tropical forest-climate relationship, there is little empirical evidence showing if and how local and regional climates are modified by deforestation. This study presents the results of an analysis of deforestation and climate change in a rain forest in southern Mexico. Records from 18 climate stations in the Selva Lacandona of Chiapas, Mexico were examined and related to an analysis of deforestation based on Landsat images. The area surrounding some stations has been deforested since the stations were established, while the area surroundings others has remained forested. Strong climatic trends were generally evident at the deforested stations, including decreases in the average daily maximum temperature and temperature range. No precipitation changes were observed. A comparison of the results with microclimatic experiments and modeling studies suggests that the climatic impacts of deforestation are overgeneralized at the local scale. Landscape heterogeneity appears to influence the biophysical mechanisms linking tropical forests and climate, and should be explicitly represented in modeling studies.     

The emergence of a Galápagos shield volcano, Roca Redonda

Roca Redonda volcano is a mostly submarine shield volcano that rises nearly 3 km from the adjacent seafloor. Over twenty lava flows and palagonite tuff are exposed in a 60 meter high oblong outcrop above sea level, and several other flows are exposed in the shallow water surrounding the islet. Thick, slightly alkaline picritic flows form the base of the section. Thinner picrites interbedded with sparsely porphyritic alkali-olivine basaltic pahoehoe toes characterize the upper section. The subaerial section probably records the filling of a palagonite tuff cone with younger lavas. Numerous fumaroles that may have a magmatic component are present in the shallow (<30 m) submarine zone and indicate that the volcano is probably still active. Three lava types are exposed: the basal picrites with 19% > MgO > 14%, high-Mg basalts with MgO of about 9%, and low-Mg basalts with MgO of about 6%. The Sr and Nd isotopic ratios of the three lava types are within analytical uncertainty. Olivine compositions indicate that the picrites are basaltic liquids that have accumulated olivine whose composition is in equilibrium with the host basaltic liquid. Apparently, basaltic magmas percolated through dunite and troctolite that had crystallized from slightly older Roca Redonda basaltic magma. Lavas from Roca Redonda have enriched trace element contents and isotopic ratios relative to nearby Wolf volcano, but they are quite similar to lavas from Cerro Azul and Ecuador volcanoes. The common characteristic of these volcanoes is that they lie on the periphery of the archipelago and are in a stage of subaerial growth. This suggests that Galápagos volcanoes may go through a juvenile alkaline stage before a mature tholeiitic stage, analogous to the Loihi stage of Hawaiian volcanism. A low ³He/⁴He ratio in olivine from one of the picrites indicates a small contribution by the Galápagos mantle plume. Received: 15 December 1997 / Accepted: 6 May 1998     

Origin of crystalline,cold desert salts in the McMurdo region,Antarctica

The distribution of crystalline salt minerals in deposits in the McMurdo region of Antarctica has been examined to study the origin of these salts. Sulphate, chloride, sodium and calcium salts are most frequently encountered. Salts containing chloride and sodium ions become less common away from the coast. Sulphate salts are more regularly distributed but tend to be related isotopically to sea water sulphate. Salts containing magnesium ion tend to exist mainly on substrates composed of basic igneous rocks, whereas calcium and carbonate salts are present on all rock types in the region.These distributions show that salts of marine origin are regionally and quantitatively most important but that chemical weathering of mafic materials in rocks and soils is also significant. However, biological, volcanic and hydrothermal processes are or have been active contributing to salts in local areas, that include penguin rookeries and eastern Taylor Valley, the summit area of Erebus Volcano, and subsurface rocks, respectively.     

Numerical study of the nocturnal urban boundary layer

A two-dimensional time-dependent Earth-atmosphere model is developed which can be applied to the study of a class of atmospheric boundary-layer flows which owe their origin to horizontal inhomogeneities with respect to surface roughness and temperature. Our main application of the model is to explore the governing physical mechanisms of nocturnal urban atmospheric boundarylayer flow.A case study is presented in which a stable temperature stratification is assumed to exist in the rural upwind area. It is shown through integration of the numerical model that as this air passes over a city, the heat is redistributed due to increased surface friction (and hence increased turbulent mixing). This redistribution of heat results in the formation of an urban heat island.Additional numerical integrations of the model are conducted to examine the dependence of induced perturbations on: (1) the upwind temperature inversion; (2) the geostrophic wind speed; and (3) urbanization. The results show a linear relationship between heat-island intensity and the rural temperature inversion with the heat island increasing in intensity as the upwind inversion becomes stronger; that the heat-island intensity close to the surface is inversely proportional to the geostrophic wind; and that the effects of anthropogenic heat cause an increase in the perturbation temperature with the perturbation extending to higher altitudes. From this study, we conclude that with an upwind temperature inversion, a city of any size should generate a heat island as a result of increased surface roughness. The heat-island intensity should increase with city size because of two factors: larger cities are usually aerodynamically rougher; and larger cities have a larger anthropogenic heat output.Research supported in part by NSF Grant GA-16822.     

Age and intensity of thermal events by fission track analysis: The Ries impact crater

A thermal event reduces the number of previously registered fission tracks in a mineral dependent upon the track retention properties of the individual mineral. Apatite, sphene and zircon have retention properties over a wide range of temperatures (from 100° to 550°C); apatite data reveal information at lowest temperatures while sphene and zircon data are useful for higher temperatures.Thermal events within this temperature range of 100°C to about 550°C are suitable for study with this technique. The age of the event is determined from samples in which the fission tracks are completely erased, while minerals containing partially removed (erased) tracks provide information on the temperatures occurring during the thermal event.As a test case, the analysis of the temperatures developed by the meteorite impact which produced the Ries crater at 14.7 m.y. ago is presented.     

Geochronology of high-pressure rocks on Sifnos (Cyclades,Greece)

Polymetamorphic rocks of Sifnos (Greece) have been investigated by Rb-Sr, K-Ar, and fission track methods. Critical mineral assemblages from the northern and southernmost parts of Sifnos include jadeite+quartz+3T phengite, and omphacite+garnet +3T phengite, whereas the central part is characterized by the assemblage albite+chlorite+epidote+2M ₁ phengite.K-Ar and Rb-Sr dates on phengites (predominantly 3T) of the best preserved high P/itTmetamorphic rocks from northern Sifnos gave concordant ages around 42 m.y., indicating a Late Lutetian age for the high P/T metamorphism. Phengites (2M ₁+3T) of less preserved high P/T assemblages yielded K-Ar dates between 48 and 41 m.y. but generally lower Rb-Sr dates. The higher K-Ar dates are interpreted as being elevated by excess argon.K-Ar and Rb-Sr ages on 2M ₁ phengites from central Sifnos vary between 24 and 21 m.y. These ages date a second, greenschist-facies metamorphism which overprinted the earlier high-pressure metamorphic rocks.     

The dynamical and liquid water structure of the small cumulus as determined from its environment

This paper examines the evidence for the model of a small cumulus cloud represented as a quasi static but turbulent entity, growing on the upshear side and decaying on the downshear side. While the air just outside the cloudy outline is, on average, stationary relative to the embedding airmass, there is a slight flow, upwards and forward as though the updraft has induced upward motion in the clear air outside the cloud, on the growing side. On the decaying side the motion is downwards and away from the cloud.This is a flow pattern which is not consistent with the air flowing around the cloud as it moves forward but it agrees well with the picture given. Decayed remnants of cloud are found throughout the air previously occupied by the cloud. The cloud outline moves through the embedding air at a velocity which is almost as large as the relative motion of the subcloud feeding airflow (which is almost free from internal wind shear in strong convection).The mixing of dry air from above the inversion yields the observed diluted liquid water content in small cumuli, if such mixing is allowed to proceed until the cloud density equals that of the surrounding air. Quantitative conditions relating the liquid water to inversion temperature and moisture changes, and to the stability of the environment are presented. The strong vertical mixing from the top of the cloud downwards is important to microphysical processes.     

Aircraft observations in the planetary boundary layer under stable conditions

An analysis of observations of airflow over Lake Ontario in a stably stratified atmosphere is presented. The relationship with theory is mentioned only in terms of what may be important to future work. Detailed air motion, potential temperature and mixing-ratio measurements are presented which show pervasive variability in the horizontal. There is no evidence of gravity waves. It is suggested that vertical mixing of the atmosphere may occur in stable conditions by a mechanism quite apart from the usual concept of the small-scale random eddy motion usually associated with surface convection. Vertical soundings are analyzed as well as two long constant-height observational runs.