2020年6月26日新疆于田6.4级地震前中期和短期预测依据与启示

2020年6月26日新疆于田6.4级地震发生在2020年度全国地震危险区内,震前作出了较好的中期（年度）和短期（月尺度和周尺度）预测,是少有的地球物理观测能力较低地区的强震前中期和短临预测较好震例。本文梳理了中期和短期预测的主要依据及其预测效能,研究表明,震前中期异常主要有流动地磁、多方法组合、5.0级地震平静打破、6.0级地震的准周期活动等;短期异常有4.0级地震活动图像、中源地震影响、于田垂直摆倾斜EW、于田GNSS基准站EW位移、和田GNSS基准站EW位移等。在总结震前分析预测过程的基础上,提出针对地球物理观测密度低地区的地震危险区论证和短临跟踪的建议,为该类地区的地震危险区判定及跟踪工作提供宝贵经验。     

短期重现性地磁日变化感应电流集中分布与地震关系初步研究

通过分析台站之间地磁垂直分量日变化相关性,研究中国大陆南北带地区90°E～110°E,2009～2018年地磁日变化感应电流线状集中分布现象与M_S≥6.0地震关系。统计发现,我国每月平均出现约2次感应电流集中分布现象,且10天左右内有原地重复出现现象——感应电流集中分布重叠异常,原地重现的集中分布感应电流日期间隔一般在10天左右以内,原地重现日期一般不连续,重现次数一般仅有2次。研究发现,我国南北带2009～2018年共出现重叠异常23次,20次重叠异常出现后18个月内重叠段发生M_S≥6.0地震,对应率高达87%,地震基本发生在重叠段端部250km以内,重叠段发生2次M_S≥6.0地震的比例较低,约35%;重叠段2个端部均发生M_S≥6.0地震的比例极小,仅约9%。部分重叠段走向与已经发现的上地幔和地壳高导带埋深走向基本一致,推测重叠异常发生在上地幔和地壳高导带附近,是来自上地幔和地壳内高导带附近的地震异常信息。目前已知,中国大陆强地震主要发生在上地幔高导层的隆起区一带及其壳内高导层发育地区,深部电性测深结果表明,大震易于发生在电导率急剧变化的梯度带,但这些地区何时发生地震还未得知,本文发现的重叠异常解释了这些地区1～2年内是否发生地震这一问题。     

联合GNSS和InSAR观测位移反演2008年汶川大地震断层位错模型参数

利用现代空间大地测量技术,尤其是卫星合成孔径雷达干涉测量,能够获取高精度、高空间分辨率的同震和孕震形变,为地震断层形变和破裂机制研究提供了前所未有的机遇。本文介绍了利用大地测量观测数据反演地震断层位错模型参数的贝叶斯反演方法。联合运用2008汶川大地震前后GNSS和InSAR技术观测获得的同震位移,反演了地震断层的几何参数和滑动位错分布。研究结果表明,汶川地震的断层滑动主要集中在倾角较陡的浅部,同时包含逆冲和右旋走滑,其中最大逆冲6.1m,最大右旋6.5m。根据断层滑动分布正演计算得到的上盘同震位移明显小于下盘,预示该断层两侧孕震形变可能存在较大的不对称性。     

Nonlinear dynamic tests of a reinforced concrete frame building at different damage levels

This paper discusses the dynamic tests of a two-story infilled reinforced concrete (RC) frame building using an eccentric-mass shaker. The building, located in El Centro, CA, was substantially damaged prior to the tests due to the seismic activity in the area. During the testing sequence, five infill walls were removed to introduce additional damage states and to investigate the changes in the dynamic properties and the nonlinear response of the building to the induced excitations. The accelerations and displacements of the structure under the forced and ambient vibrations were recorded through an array of sensors, while lidar scans were obtained to document the damage. The test data provide insight into the nonlinear response of an actual building and the change of its resonant frequencies and operational shapes due to varying damage levels and changes of the excitation amplitude, frequency, and orientation.     

基于遥感时空融合的鄱阳湖洪泛湿地植物群落动态变化特征

湿地植物群落结构及其动态变化特征是反映湿地生态系统健康状况的重要指标,对预测湿地生态系统演变方向和生态恢复至关重要。本文基于融合Landsat和MODIS数据获得的30 m、8 d分辨率的NDVI数据集,结合物候特征构建决策树分类方法,解译了2000 2020年鄱阳湖洪泛湿地植被空间分布格局,分析不同植物群落时空动态特征及转移变化过程。结果表明：遥感时空融合为鄱阳湖湿地植被精细化分类提供了良好的数据基础,基于物候特征的决策树分类方法将研究区解译为水体、泥滩、浮叶植物群落、蓼子草（Polygonum hydropiper）-虉草（Phalaris arundinacea）群落、苔草（Carex cinerascens）群落、芦荻（Phragmites australis-Triarrhena lutarioriparia）群落、蒌蒿（Artemisia selengensis）群落和林地8种景观,总体分类精度达89.36%。从全湖范围来看,湿地植被总面积虽有波动,但整体呈显著增加趋势,其中蓼子草-虉草群落的增加最为明显,而分布最广的苔草群落先增加后有微弱减小,次优势种的芦荻群落面积在30...     

含孔隙、裂隙地层随钻多极子声波测井理论

储层岩石中普遍存在孔隙与裂隙,对钻井中的测井声波产生重要影响.基于孔、裂隙介质弹性波理论,导出了随钻声波测井的井孔声场表达式.据此考察了地层裂隙密度与含气饱和度的变化时井孔内随钻多极子模式波（斯通利波、弯曲波和螺旋波）的速度、衰减与灵敏度以及地层纵、横波的响应特征.裂隙密度与含气饱和度对模式波的速度频散与衰减都有影响,且两参数的值越大,影响越大.具体来说,速度对裂隙密度更敏感,而衰减对含气饱和度更敏感.具有"艾里相"特征的随钻偶极和四极子波在地层含气时产生强烈衰减,可以作为判断地层含气的一个明显指示.理论模拟与实际测井数据分析结果符合较好.     

Time-variant fragility analysis of the bridge system considering time-varying dependence among typical component seismic demands

This paper presents a copula technique to develop time-variant seismic fragility curves for corroded bridges at the system level and considers the realistic time-varying dependence among component seismic demands. Based on material deterioration mechanisms and incremental dynamic analysis, the time-evolving seismic demands of components were obtained in the form of marginal probability distributions. The time-varying dependences among bridge components were then captured with the best fitting copula function, which was selected from the commonly used copula classes by the empirical distribution based analysis method. The system time-variant fragility curves at different damage states were developed and the effects of time-varying dependences among components on the bridge system fragility were investigated. The results indicate the time-varying dependence among components significantly affects the time-variant fragility of the bridge system. The copula technique captures the nonlinear dependence among component seismic demands accurately and easily by separating the marginal distributions and the dependence among them.     

基于ShakeMap_CNST的2017年精河6.6级地震灾害快速评估

基于考虑区域地震动衰减关系、场地效应及震中破裂等多因素的烈度快速评估模型,结合震害预测方法,研发了一套震害预测系统,并以2017年8月9日精河M_S6.6地震的震害预测为例,将对其的预测结果与当前主流系统进行对比。结果表明,采用ShakeMap_CNST系统能对地震的影响范围和烈度进行更为准确的估计,在人员伤亡、受灾人口估计、紧急安置人数及经济损失评估等方面,相对于其他系统,本系统的结果与现场调查的结果更为接近。     

2018年9月4日新疆伽师MS5.5地震序列及发震构造讨论

2018年9月4日新疆伽师发生M_S5.5地震,震中处于塔里木地块西北缘,位于1997~1998年伽师强震群震区内。此次伽师地震前发生了M_S4.7前震,截至9月30日最大余震震级为M_S4.6（M_L5.0）,初步判定为前-主-余型地震序列。序列精定位结果显示,余震沿近NE向展布,主震震源深度与1997~1998年伽师强震主震基本一致,发震断层陡立。本文从区域的构造环境、地震震源机制解和余震分布特征等方面分析认为,地震发生在伽师隐伏断裂东南端部,为1997~1998年伽师强震群震区的一次新的构造活动。序列参数、视应力等计算结果显示,伽师M_S5.5地震的预测最大余震震级与最大余震震级M_S4.6接近,表明序列最大余震已经发生。     

Carboniferous integrative stratigraphy and timescale of China

The Carboniferous period lasted about 60 Myr, from ～358.9 Ma to ～298.9 Ma. According to the International Commission on Stratigraphy, the Carboniferous System is subdivided into two subsystems, i.e., Mississippian and Pennsylvanian, including 6 series and 7 stages. The Global Stratotype Sections and Points(GSSPs) of three stages have been ratified, the Tournaisian, Visean, and Bashkirian stages. The GSSPs of the remaining four stages(i.e., the Serpukhovian, Moscovian,Kasimovian, and Gzhelian) have not been ratified so far. This paper outlines Carboniferous stratigraphic subdivision and correlation on the basis of detailed biostratigraphy mainly from South China, and summarizes the Carboniferous chronostratigraphic framework of China. High-resolution biostratigraphic study reveals 37 conodont zones, 24 foraminiferal(including fusulinid) zones, 13 ammonoid zones, 10 brachiopod zones, and 10 rugose coral zones in the Carboniferous of China. The biostratigraphic framework based on these biozones warrants the precise correlation of regional stratigraphy of China(including2 subsystems, 4 series, and 8 stages) to that of the other regions globally. Meanwhile, the Carboniferous chemo-, sequence-,cyclo-, and event-stratigraphy of China have been intensively studied and can also be correlated worldwide. Future studies on the Carboniferous in China should focus on(1) the correlation between shallow-and deep-water facies and between marine and continental facies,(2) high-resolution astronomical cyclostratigraphy, and(3) paleoenvironment and paleoclimate analysis based on geochemical proxies such as strontium and oxygen isotopes, as well as stomatal indices of fossil plants.