中国与“一带一路”沿线国家贸易及其影响因素

利用拓展贸易引力模型,借助Eviews等工具分析了影响中国与“一带一路”沿线国家贸易规模的因素,以及中国对外直接投资的滞后性对双边贸易的影响。结果表明：1）中国与“一带一路”沿线国家贸易规模受到经济发展水平、市场规模、政治制度、贸易畅通性、便利性、中国对外直接投资、民间文化交流紧密度的影响;2）中国对外直接投资对于带动中国与“一带一路”沿线国家间的贸易规模具有正向作用,但其效应具有一定滞后性;3）中国对外直接投资对于带动中国与不同“一带一路”沿线国家贸易规模的引力大小不同,可分为投资带动力巨大型、投资带动型、投资一般型、投资带动力不足型4种类型,中国与东南亚、西亚和撒哈拉以南的非洲国家贸易规模受中国对外直接投资带动作用较强。     

乡村农户旅游适应效果、模式及其影响因素——以西安市和咸阳市17个案例村为例

乡村旅游地面临人地交互作用的剧烈变迁,内部要素适应社会-生态系统变化,趋利避害降低脆弱性具有重要现实意义。本文重新界定基于恢复力和脆弱性的农户适应性理论内涵,构建旅游开发适应力指标体系,以西安市和咸阳市17个不同类型的城郊型乡村旅游地为例,评价和分析农户旅游适应效果与空间差异规律,探讨和归纳适应行为与对策模式,建立BP神经网络辨别和揭示适应性影响因素与重要性关系。研究表明:①西安市和咸阳市农户适应旅游开发综合效果呈现中等偏下水平的偏态分布趋势,分别处于旅游地生命周期快速发展阶段和探索起步阶段。②乡村旅游地农户适应效果形成圈层辐射、两翼包络、外围联动的县域尺度空间分布格局;村域尺度圈层分化现象显著。③经营模式划分的旅游乡村农户适应效果股份制模式>公司+农户模式>政府+公司+农户模式>个体农庄模式>农户+农户模式;常年外出务工和农家乐经营是农户主要适应行为选择,季节性务工、本地上班以及农业生产是辅助适应行为选择,且适应行为组合方式表现为旅游专营型、旅游主导型、均衡兼营型、务工主导型和务农主导型五种适应对策模式。④旅游发展机会认知、技能培训机会、社会联结度、劳动力总量、政策知晓度、旅游就业人数、收入来源种类、生活主要能源、受教育程度、公共服务设施是农户主要旅游适应性影响因素。据此,提出后续社会-生态整合研究亟需突破方向和适应旅游开发的政策路径。     

台风水汽稳定同位素组成与天气过程的关系——以2015 年13 号台风“苏迪罗”为例

基于台风“苏迪罗”（1513）影响前后南京实时高频监测的水汽稳定同位素数据,并结合再分析资料、HYSPLIT后向轨迹模型分析了大气水汽δ¹⁸O与天气过程之间的关系以及大气水汽过量氘所指示的水汽来源。结果表明,1）整个台风影响过程水汽δ¹⁸O先保持基本不变后一直下降的趋势,而水汽过量氘则呈现完全相反的变化趋势。2）根据台风“苏迪罗”影响前后南京水汽δ¹⁸O变化特征,将其划分为3个阶段：Ⅰ阶段水汽δ¹⁸O较高与南京地区较为稳定的大气条件相对应,水汽过量氘值较低指示南京地区主要受海洋水汽影响;Ⅱ阶段台风环流及其残压和北方南下冷空气相互作用造成南京地区强降水,水汽凝结和降雨蒸发的共同作用导致水汽δ¹⁸O不断贫化,较高的水汽过量氘表明南京地区主要受海洋和局地混合水汽的影响;Ⅲ阶段可能是中尺度下沉气流导致南京地区极端偏负的δ¹⁸O和高水汽过量氘。     

天山上地幔结构及其对壳内构造运动的作用

以深部地球物理资料为基础,介绍了天山地震带上地幔的基本结构,讨论了天山不同地区上地幔介质的动力学性质和可能的驱动机制。认为水平挤压形变是造成西天山和天山毗邻西昆仑附近区域上地幔岩石圈缩短和增厚的主要原因;而在中天山和东天山靠近准噶尔盆地南缘一带,除了板块运动造成的水平挤压力之外,上地幔热物质有可能上浮甚至侵入到地壳之中。它们与水平运动一样,对壳内脆性介质的构造活动起到非常重要的作用,特别是地壳底部莫霍面附近的低速滑脱层成为震源区深部构造的一个明显标志。此外,自从印度 亚洲大陆碰撞以来,天山部分地区固结冷却的山根有可能在多重挤压变形和小尺度热对流的共同作用下,脱离它们的原有的层位而沉入上地幔     

略阳县农居房屋抗震现状调查与评价研究

为精准识别贫困山区农居房屋结构现状完好程度,本文开展略阳县境内41894栋农居房屋抗震现状实地调查,搜集整理域内孕灾环境和致灾因子强度,统计分析域内各行政镇（办）经济水平、农居房屋抗震结构类型和震害等级,预测震害矩阵,计算平均震害指数,并评价抗震能力。研究结果表明：域内农居房屋抗震结构类型包括土木结构、砖木结构和砖混结构;域内农居房屋在VI度地震作用下基本完好的比例为74.04%,在VII度地震作用下发生轻微破坏以下震害等级的比例为83.45%,在VIII度地震作用下发生中等破坏以下震害等级的比例为85.46%;域内农居房屋在地震烈度为VI、VII、VIII、IX、X度时的平均震害指数分别为0.13、0.23、0.32、0.49、0.71,抗震性能较差,不满足“小震不坏、中震可修、大震不倒”的抗震设防目标。     

A two-layer model for studying 2D dissolved pollutant runoff over impermeable surfaces

Dissolved pollutants in stormwater are a main contributor to water pollution in urban environments. However, many existing transport models are semi-empirical and only consider one-dimensional flows, which limit their predictive capacity. Combining the shallow water and the advection–diffusion equations, a two-dimensional physically based model is developed for dissolved pollutant transport by adopting the concept of a ‘control layer’. A series of laboratory experiments has been conducted to validate the proposed model, taking into account the effects of buildings and intermittent rainfalls. The predictions are found to be in good agreement with experimental observations, which supports the assumption that the depth of the control layer is constant. Based on the validated model, a parametric study is conducted, focusing on the characteristics of the pollutant distribution and transport rate over the depth. The hyetograph, including the intensity, duration and intermittency, of rainfall event has a significant influence on the pollutant transport rates. The depth of the control layer, rainfall intensity, surface roughness and area length are dominant factors that affect the dissolved pollutant transport. Finally, several perspectives of the new pollutant transport model are discussed. This study contributes to an in-depth understanding of the dissolved pollutant transport processes on impermeable surfaces and urban stormwater management.     

Identification and assessment of water safety risk for groundwater recharge with reclaimed water in China

Groundwater recharge using reclaimed water has developed rapidly around the world to relieve the groundwater resource shortage and declining of the water table. Traditional water treatment systems are inefficient to remove all the types of contaminants, so it is urgent to identify the priority chemical substances (CSs) that deserve our first concern. In this study, we developed a method (EER method) to identify priority CSs in groundwater recharge by surface spreading and direct aquifer injection. Three stages were processed which were exposure assessment, effect assessment and ranking for identification of priority CSs. Fourteen cities in China were selected for data collected and 90 pollutants in reclaimed water samples were analyzed as the target pollutants for a case study. According to three stages, the 90 CSs studied were divided into five groups (primary control CSs and high, moderate and low and no risk control CSs). In the primary control CSs and high, moderate and low and no risk control CSs group there were 14, 18, 21, 21 and 16 CSs, respectively when groundwater recharged by surface spreading, while there were 15, 18, 21, 21 and 15 CSs when recharged by direct injection. This method provided an indicator of prioritizing the risk of 90 compounds in the reclaimed water for groundwater recharge.     

Comparative studies of glacier mass balance and their climatic implications in Svalbard, Northern Scandinavia, and Southern Norway

On the basis of the data of glacier mass balance during 1946?C2005 over Svalbard, Northern Scandinavia, and Southern Norway, the characteristics of glacier mass-balance are analyzed, and its sensitivity to climate change is calculated using a simple degree-day model. The mass balance of glaciers in these three regions reached maximum or comparatively high values in the late 1980s or the early 1990s. After that there was an accelerating negative tendency. A glacier with more positive mass balance has a higher sensitivity to equilibrium-line altitude (or climate) change and vice versa. On average, the mass loss during the entire period in these three regions was equivalent to the result of an air temperature rise of 0.32°C relative to zero net balance state. The highest temperature increase is found in Svalbard, and is 0.55°C; however, a rise of only 0.12°C is found in Southern Norway. The net balance sensitivity to a hypothetical air temperature increase of +1°C ranges from ?0.31 to ?1.03?m?w.e.?a^?1, and the net balance sensitivity to an assumed increase in snow precipitation of +10% varies from +0.05 to +0.37?m?w.e.?a^?1; thus, a 31% increase in snow precipitation is needed to compensate for the net mass loss induced by an air temperature increase of +1°C. The summer balance sensitivity to a hypothetical air temperature increase of +1°C varies from ?0.39 to ?0.95?m?w.e.?a^?1, and the winter balance sensitivity to an assumed increase in snow precipitation of +10% ranges from +0.02 to +0.38?m?w.e.?a^?1. This study confirms early findings that maritime glaciers have comparatively higher mass balance sensitivity than continental glaciers.     

东海沉积物中轻矿物的研究

本文对东海大陆架、冲绳海槽及长江表层沉积物中的轻矿物进行了研究。调查区范围为121°-129°E,32°-26°30′N。长江采样区段为芜湖——长江口。共分析了124个样品,其中长江样品11个,东海大陆架样品100个,冲绳海槽样品13个。使用的样品粒级为0.1-0.25毫米。