Global sensitivity analysis in an ocean general circulation model: a sparse spectral projection approach

Polynomial chaos (PC) expansions are used to propagate parametric uncertainties in ocean global circulation model. The computations focus on short-time, high-resolution simulations of the Gulf of Mexico, using the hybrid coordinate ocean model, with wind stresses corresponding to hurricane Ivan. A sparse quadrature approach is used to determine the PC coefficients which provides a detailed representation of the stochastic model response. The quality of the PC representation is first examined through a systematic refinement of the number of resolution levels. The PC representation of the stochastic model response is then utilized to compute distributions of quantities of interest (QoIs) and to analyze the local and global sensitivity of these QoIs to uncertain parameters. Conclusions are finally drawn regarding limitations of local perturbations and variance-based assessment and concerning potential application of the present methodology to inverse problems and to uncertainty management.     

Modeling IR spectral energy distributions: a?pilot study of?starburst parameters and silicate absorption curves for some GOALS galaxies

This paper describes a pilot study into the spectral energy distribution (SED) fitting and the derivation of physical parameters for 19 galaxies observed as part of the Great Observatories All-sky LIRG Survey (GOALS) survey as observed with the Spitzer Space Telescope. For this we have used the pan-spectral fitting tools developed in a series of papers by Dopita and his co-workers. We show that the standard Lee and Draine ??astronomical silicate?? model cannot provide a good fit to the silicate absorption features as observed in the heavily dust-extinguished (A _V??50 mag.) starbursts. We have derived an empirical fit to the ??starburst silicate?? absorption in these objects. This absorption curve is consistent with the silicate grains being systematically larger in starburst environments than in the local Galactic interstellar medium. We demonstrate the sensitivity of the SED fitting to each of the fitted parameters, and derive these parameters for those galaxies which do not have an embedded AGN. This technique is simple and provides reasonably robust and uniform parameters for the starburst, especially as far as the star formation rate, population of old stars, compactness of the starburst region and total foreground extinction are concerned. However, the chemical abundances and the optical extinction cannot be reliably determined by this analysis, and optical SEDs will also be required to provide a complete characterization of the starburst region and of the surrounding galaxy.     

Effect of chlorine on near-liquidus phase equilibria of an Fe–Mg-rich tholeiitic basalt

The importance of Cl in basalt petrogenesis has been recognized, yet constraints on its effect on liquidus crystallization of basalts are scarce. In order to quantify the role of Cl in basaltic systems, we have experimentally determined near-liquidus phase relations of a synthetic Fe–Mg-rich basalt, doped with 0.0–2.5 wt% dissolved Cl, at 0.7, 1.1, and 1.5 GPa. Results have been parameterized and compared with previous data from literature. The effect of Cl on mineral chemistry and liquidus depression is dependent on the starting basaltic composition. The liquidus depression measured for a SiO₂-rich, Al₂O₃-poor basalt is smaller than that observed for a basaltic melt depleted in silica and enriched in FeO_T and Al₂O₃. The effect of Cl on depression of the olivine–orthopyroxene–liquid multiple saturation pressure does not seem to vary with the starting composition of the basaltic liquid. This suggests that Cl may significantly promote the generation of silica-poor, Fe–Al-rich magmas in the Earth, Mars, and the Moon.     

Past and future changes in climate and hydrological indicators in the US Northeast

To assess the influence of global climate change at the regional scale, we examine past and future changes in key climate, hydrological, and biophysical indicators across the US Northeast (NE). We first consider the extent to which simulations of twentieth century climate from nine atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) are able to reproduce observed changes in these indicators. We then evaluate projected future trends in primary climate characteristics and indicators of change, including seasonal temperatures, rainfall and drought, snow cover, soil moisture, streamflow, and changes in biometeorological indicators that depend on threshold or accumulated temperatures such as growing season, frost days, and Spring Indices (SI). Changes in indicators for which temperature-related signals have already been observed (seasonal warming patterns, advances in high-spring streamflow, decreases in snow depth, extended growing seasons, earlier bloom dates) are generally reproduced by past model simulations and are projected to continue in the future. Other indicators for which trends have not yet been observed also show projected future changes consistent with a warmer climate (shrinking snow cover, more frequent droughts, and extended low-flow periods in summer). The magnitude of temperature-driven trends in the future are generally projected to be higher under the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) mid-high (A2) and higher (A1FI) emissions scenarios than under the lower (B1) scenario. These results provide confidence regarding the direction of many regional climate trends, and highlight the fundamental role of future emissions in determining the potential magnitude of changes we can expect over the coming century.

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A case-study of complex gas–water–rock–pollutants interactions in shallow groundwater: Šalek Valley (Slovenia)

The complex geochemical interactions in the groundwater of the industrial area of Šalek Valley (Slovenia) between natural and anthropogenic fluids were studied by means of major (Ca, Mg, Na, K, HCO₃ ⁻, Cl⁻ and SO₄ ²⁻) and trace elements’ (As , Cd, Cu, Pb, Zn, Hg, Se and V) abundances, geochemical classification and statistical analysis of data. Cation abundances indicate mixing between a dolomitic end-member and an evaporitic or geothermal end-member. Anion abundances indicate mixing between bicarbonate waters and either sulphate-enriched waters (suggesting hydrothermalism) or chlorine-rich waters. Principal component analysis (PCA) allowed the extraction of seven factors, which describe, respectively: water–rock interaction mainly on dolomitic rocks; redox conditions of water; Cd–Zn enrichment in chlorine-rich waters (probably from industrial wastes); hydrothermal conditions in waters close to major faults; Pb and Cu pollution; V and K enrichments, indicating their common organic source; the role of partial pressure of CO₂ dissolved in water, which is highest in three wells with bubbling gases. Average underground discharge rates of solutes from the Valley range between 0.09 t/a (V) and 1.8 × 104 t/a (HCO₃ ⁻) and indicate how natural fluids can significantly contribute to the levels of elements in the environment, in addition to the amount of elements released by human activities.     

Creating a GIS-based model of marine debris "hot spots" to improve efficiency of a lobster trap debris removal program

Debris removal programs are combatting the accumulation of derelict fishing gear and other debris in marine habitats. We analyzed 5 years of lobster trap debris removal data in Biscayne National Park, Florida to assess removal efficiency and develop spatially-explicit mapping tools to guide future removals. We generated and validated debris "hot spots" maps that combined remotely-sensed data (i.e. benthic habitat type and bathymetry) with 862 locations of previous debris collection. Our hot spot models spatially depict regions of likely debris accumulation, reducing the search area by 95% (from 332 km(2) to 18 km(2)) and encompassing 100% of the validation sites. Our analyses indicate removal contractors using sub-surface towed divers enhanced debris recovery. Additionally, the quantity of debris removed did not decrease with increased efforts, suggesting that debris supply in situ exceeds removal efforts. We conclude with the importance of coupling analysis of ongoing debris removal programs with GIS technology to improve removal efforts.     

Assimilation of preexisting Pleistocene intrusions at Long Valley by periodic magma recharge accelerates rhyolite generation: rethinking the remelting model

Rhyolite flows and tuffs from the Long Valley area of California, which were erupted over a two-million-year time period, exhibit systematic trends in Nd, Hf, and Pb isotopes, trace element composition, erupted volume, and inferred magma residence time that provide evidence for a new model for the production of large volumes of silica-rich magma. Key constraints come from geochronology of zircon crystal populations combined with a refined eruption chronology from Ar–Ar geochronology; together these data give better estimates of magma residence time that can be evaluated in the context of changing magma compositions. Here, we report Hf, Nd, and Sr isotopes, major and trace element compositions, ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages, and U–Pb zircon ages that combined with existing data suggest that the chronology and geochemistry of Long Valley rhyolites can be explained by a dynamic interaction of crustal and mantle-derived magma. The large volume Bishop Tuff represents the culmination of a period of increased mantle-derived magma input to the Long Valley volcanic system; the effect of this input continued into earliest postcaldera time. As the postcaldera evolution of the system continued, new and less primitive crustal-derived magmas dominated the system. A mixture of varying amounts of more mafic mantle-derived and felsic crustal-derived magmas with recently crystallized granitic plutonic materials offers the best explanation for the observed chronology, secular shifts in Hf and Nd isotopes, and the apparently low zircon crystallization and saturation temperatures as compared to Fe–Ti oxide eruption temperatures. This scenario in which transient crustal magma bodies remained molten for varying time periods, fed eruptions before solidification, and were then remelted by fresh recharge provides a realistic conceptual framework that can explain the isotopic and geochemical evidence. General relationships between crustal residence times and magma sources are that: (1) precaldera rhyolites had long crustal magma residence times and high crustal affinity, (2) the caldera-related Bishop Tuff and early postcaldera rhyolites have lower crustal affinity and short magma residence times, and (3) later postcaldera rhyolites again have stronger crustal signatures and longer magma residence times.     

Investigations of the availability and survival of submersed aquatic vegetation propagules in the tidal Potomac River

The establishment of submersed aquatic vegetation (SAV) at unvegetated sites in the freshwater tidal Potomac River was limited primarily by factors other than propagule availability. For two years, traps were used to quantify the amount of plant material reaching three unvegetated sites over the growing season. The calculated flux values provided a gross estimate of the flux of propagules that could potentially survive if other site factors were suitable. The mean flux ofHydrilla verticillata and all other species (≥0.01 gdw m^?2 d^?1) appeared sufficient to favor the establishment of vegetation, particularly considering the high viability (70–100%) of whole plants and fragments under controlled conditions. However, median water clarity values (i.e., for light attenuation, Secchi depth, total suspended solids, and chlorophylla) were below SAV restoration goals at all unvegetated sites. Additionally, sediments from unvegetated sites showed a potential for nitrogen limitation of the growth ofH. verticillata. Our findings support the hypothesis that in the tidal Potomac River, water clarity and nutrient (especially nitrogen) levels in sediment are key to plant community establishment.     

Sedimentological and petrographic analysis of drill core FC77-1 from the flank of the central uplift,Flynn Creek impact structure,Tennessee

Drill core FC77-1 on the flank of the central uplift, Flynn Creek impact structure, Tennessee, contains 175 m of impact breccia lying upon uplifted Lower Paleozoic carbonate target stratigraphy. Sedimentological analysis of this 175-m interval carbonate breccia shows that there are three distinct sedimentological units. In stratigraphic order, unit 1 (175–109 m) is an overall coarsening-upward section, whereas the overlying unit 2 (109–32 m) is overall fining-upward. Unit 3 (32–0 m) is a coarsening-upward sequence that is truncated at the top by postimpact erosion. Units 1 and 3 are interpreted as debris or rock avalanches into finer sedimentary deposits within intracrater marine waters, thus producing progressively coarser, coarsening-upward sequences. Unit 2 is interpreted to have formed by debris or rock avalanches into standing marine waters, thus forming sequential fining-upward deposits. Line-logging of clasts ranging from 5 mm to 1.6 m, and thin-section analysis of selected drill core samples (including clasts < 5 mm), both show that the Flynn Creek impact breccia consists almost entirely of dolostone clasts (90%), with minor components of cryptocrystalline melt clasts, chert and shale fragments, and clastic grains. Cryptocrystalline melt clasts, which appear isotropic in thin section, are in fact made of exceedingly fine quartz crystals that exhibit micro-Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) and micro-Raman spectra consistent with crystalline quartz. These cryptocrystalline melt clasts are the first melt clasts of any kind to be reported from Flynn Creek impact structure.     

Seismic hybrid simulation of a nonductile RC building with severe damage to multiple columns

Reinforced concrete frame structures built prior to the mid‐1970s are susceptible to brittle column failure under seismic action, potentially leading to progressive collapse of the structure. The behavior of columns susceptible to brittle shear‐axial failure has been studied previously but rarely has the interaction between damaged columns and the surrounding three‐dimensional structure been investigated experimentally and at full scale. In this study, as the second in a series of hybrid simulations, two full‐scale reinforced concrete columns of a representative pre‐1970s structure were tested at the Multi‐axial Full‐scale Substructure Testing and Simulation (MUST‐SIM) laboratory. Through the use of hybrid simulation, the interaction of the columns with the surrounding structure is studied under a severe seismic motion including vertical excitation. The computational model representing the remainder of the representative 10‐story structure is created in the computer program OpenSees. During the hybrid simulation, both physical specimens experience significant loss of shear and axial strength, and the effects of these failures on the surrounding system are described. The three‐dimensional computational model in OpenSees allowed for analytical flexural‐axial failure of a third column in the structure to occur. The effects of these multiple failures on the response of a full structural system under seismic action are quantified, and the progressive collapse resistance mechanisms are discussed. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.