A history of violence: magma incubation,timing and tephra distribution of the Los Chocoyos supereruption (Atitlán Caldera,Guatemala)

The climactic Los Chocoyos (LCY) eruption from Atitlán caldera (Guatemala) is a key chronostratigraphic marker for the Quaternary period given the extensive distribution of its deposits that reached both the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Despite LCY tephra being an important marker horizon, a radioisotopic age for this eruption has remained elusive. Using zircon (U–Th)/He geochronology, we present the first radioisotopically determined eruption age for the LCY of 75 ± 2 ka. Additionally, the youngest zircon crystallization ²³⁸U–²³⁰Th rim ages in their respective samples constrain eruption age maxima for two other tephra units that erupted from Atitlán caldera, W-Fall (130 ⁺¹⁶/₋₁₄ ka) and I-Fall eruptions (56 ^+8.2/_−7.7 ka), which under- and overlie LCY tephra, respectively. Moreover, rim and interior zircon dating and glass chemistry suggest that before eruption silicic magma was stored for >80 kyr, with magma accumulation peaking within ca. 35 kyr before the LCY eruption during which the system may have developed into a vertically zoned magma chamber. Based on an updated distribution of LCY pyroclastic deposits, a new conservatively estimated volume of ~1220 ± 150 km³ is obtained (volcanic explosivity index VEI > 8), which confirms the LCY eruption as the first-ever recognized supereruption in Central America.     

A sensitivity-based approach to evaluating future changes in Colorado River discharge

Projections of a drier, warmer climate in the U.S. Southwest would complicate management of the Colorado River system—yet these projections, often based on coarse resolution global climate models, are quite uncertain. We present an approach to understanding future Colorado River discharge based on land surface characterizations that map the Colorado River basin’s hydrologic sensitivities (e.g., changes in streamflow magnitude) to annual and seasonal temperature and precipitation changes. The approach uses a process-based macroscale land surface model (LSM; in this case, the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrologic model, although methods are applicable to any LSM) to develop sensitivity maps (equivalent to a simple empirical model), and uses these maps to evaluate long-term annual streamflow responses to future precipitation and temperature change. We show that global climate model projections combined with estimates of hydrologic sensitivities, estimated for different seasons and at different change increments, can provide a basis for approximating cumulative distribution functions of streamflow changes similar to more common, computationally intensive full-simulation approaches that force the hydrologic model with downscaled future climate scenarios. For purposes of assessing risk, we argue that the sensitivity-based approach produces viable first-order estimates that can be easily applied to newly released climate information to assess underlying drivers of change and bound, at least approximately, the range of future streamflow uncertainties for water resource planners.     

Facing climatic and anthropogenic changes in the Mediterranean basin: What will be the medium-term impact on water stress?

The Mediterranean basin has been identified as one of the world's most vulnerable regions to climatic and anthropogenic changes. A methodology accounting for the basin specific conditions is developed to assess the current and future water stress state of this region. The medium-term evolution of water stress is investigated using climatic scenarios and a water-use scenario based on efficiency improvements following the recommendations of the Mediterranean Strategy for Sustainable Development. Currently, the southern and eastern rims are experiencing high to severe water stress. By the 2050 horizon, a 30–50% decline in freshwater resources is simulated over most of the Mediterranean basin. While total water withdrawals would stabilize, or even decrease (10–40%), in several northern catchments, they would double in southern and eastern catchments. These changes should significantly increase water stress over the Mediterranean basin and exacerbate the disparities between rims.     

Straddling the tholeiitic/calc-alkaline transition: the effects of modest amounts of water on magmatic differentiation at Newberry Volcano,Oregon

Melting experiments have been performed at 1 bar (anhydrous) and 1- and 2-kbar H₂O-saturated conditions to study the effect of water on the differentiation of a basaltic andesite. The starting material was a mafic pumice from the compositionally zoned tuff deposited during the ~75 ka caldera-forming eruption of Newberry Volcano, a rear-arc volcanic center in the central Oregon Cascades. Pumices in the tuff of Newberry caldera (TNC) span a continuous silica range from 53 to 74 wt% and feature an unusually high-Na₂O content of 6.5 wt% at 67 wt% SiO₂. This wide range of magmatic compositions erupted in a single event makes the TNC an excellent natural laboratory in which to study the conditions of magmatic differentiation. Our experimental results and mineral–melt hygrometers/thermometers yield similar estimates of pre-eruptive H₂O contents and temperatures of the TNC liquids. The most primitive (mafic) basaltic andesites record a pre-eruptive H₂O content of 1.5 wt% and a liquidus temperature of 1,060–1,070 °C at upper crustal pressure. This modest H₂O content produces a distinctive fractionation trend that is much more enriched in Na, Fe, and Ti than the calc-alkaline trend typical of wetter arc magmas, but slightly less enriched in Fe and Ti than the tholeiitic trend of dry magmas. Modest H₂O contents might be expected at Newberry Volcano given its location in the Cascade rear arc, and the same fractionation trend is also observed in the rim andesites of the rear-arc Medicine Lake volcano in the southern Cascades. However, the Na–Fe–Ti enrichment characteristic of modest H₂O (1–2 wt%) is also observed to the west of Newberry in magmas erupted from the arc axis, such as the Shevlin Park Tuff and several lava flows from the Three Sisters. This shows that modest-H₂O magmas are being generated directly beneath the arc axis as well as in the rear arc. Because liquid lines of descent are particularly sensitive to water content in the range of 0–3 wt% H₂O, they provide a quantitative and reliable tool for precisely determining pre-eruptive H₂O content using major-element data from pumices or lava flows. Coupled enrichment in Na, Fe, and Ti relative to the calc-alkaline trend is a general feature of fractional crystallization in the presence of modest amounts of H₂O, which may be used to look for “damp” fractionation sequences elsewhere.     

Bacterial abundance and production in different water masses around South Island,New Zealand

Abstract

Bacterial numbers and production were measured in the upper water column in the winter and spring of 1993 in five water masses surrounding the South Island of New Zealand. Average bacterial numbers and production were found to be higher in spring (8.5 × 10⁵ cells ml^?1 and 0.20 mg m³ h^?1, respectively) than winter (5.5 × 10⁵ cells ml^?1 and 0.05 mg C m³ h^?1 respectively). Bacterial production was strongly correlated with chlorophyll a and primary production (P < 0.001) in spring but not in winter. Spring bacterial production and at 10 m depth averaged across 28 stations was 23% of primary production, and with a growth efficency of 40%, may have consumed up to 57% of primary production. Bacterial biomass was greater than phytoplankton biomass for 75% of the 10 m depth comparisons during winter sampling and 44% during the spring sampling. The bacterial biomass was found to represent 24.6–33.5% of the nitrogen in particulate organic matter (<200 μm) supporting the concept that in New Zealand oceanic water masses bacteria are of significant biogeochemical importance.     

War on Terror,work in progress: security,surveillance and the configuration of the US workfare state

This paper evaluates the impact of recent shifts in the geopolitical outlook of the United States—specifically the ‘Global War on Terror’ and its domestic ramifications—on the prior project of reconfiguring the US state to an after-Fordist ‘workfare’ paradigm. In particular, the paper attempts to situate recent developments in the reconfiguration of the American welfare state within the context of debates over the ‘exceptional’ nature of US politics post-9/11. The extent to which this has had a bearing on work practices, welfare provision and workfarism is investigated, citing examples from the post-9/11 era. On the basis of such examples it has been suggested that the project of reconfiguring the US welfare state and labour relations does overlap and intersect with the emergency practices that the US state has instituted domestically as part of the War on Terror. However, the reconfiguration of the US welfare state towards a neoliberal or workfarist paradigm is, we argue, largely part of the ‘normal’ (as opposed to exceptional) fabric of US politics. The project of reconfiguring the US welfare state is ongoing and largely autonomous (although not entirely removed) from the use of exceptional practices in relation to the US security state. Investigation of this relationship, we assert, provides a potentially fruitful ‘new direction’ for both critical geopolitics and political economic geography, and grounds for interaction between the two.     

The fluvial and geomorphic context of Indian Knoll,an Archaic shell midden in West‐Central Kentucky

Indian Knoll is the largest Archaic shell midden excavated by WPA archaeologists in Kentucky. Situated in a large alluvial valley, the site is not associated with a known river shoal as might be expected, making its fluvial and geomorphic setting of interest. Based on sediment cores and auger samples, undisturbed portions of the site remain despite extensive excavations. In undisturbed portions, a shell‐bearing layer is overlain by a shell‐free midden layer. Profiles of organic matter and calcium carbonate content for both layers are similar to those of other Green River shell middens. New radiocarbon determinations date the shell deposit at 5590–4530 cal yr B.P. Analysis of mussel species collected from the Indian Knoll indicates that shell fishing took place in a swiftly flowing, shallow to moderately deep setting of the main river channel. Overall, the prehistoric river setting adjacent to Indian Knoll was characterized by deeper water on average with variable but finer‐grained substrate compared to other Green River shell midden sites. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.