Can marine fisheries and aquaculture meet fish demand from a growing human population in a changing climate?

Expansion in the world's human population and economic development will increase future demand for fish products. As global fisheries yield is constrained by ecosystems productivity and management effectiveness, per capita fish consumption can only be maintained or increased if aquaculture makes an increasing contribution to the volume and stability of global fish supplies. Here, we use predictions of changes in global and regional climate (according to IPCC emissions scenario A1B), marine ecosystem and fisheries production estimates from high resolution regional models, human population size estimates from United Nations prospects, fishmeal and oil price estimations, and projections of the technological development in aquaculture feed technology, to investigate the feasibility of sustaining current and increased per capita fish consumption rates in 2050. We conclude that meeting current and larger consumption rates is feasible, despite a growing population and the impacts of climate change on potential fisheries production, but only if fish resources are managed sustainably and the animal feeds industry reduces its reliance on wild fish. Ineffective fisheries management and rising fishmeal prices driven by greater demand could, however, compromise future aquaculture production and the availability of fish products.     

The influence of systematic errors in the Southeast Pacific on ENSO variability and prediction in a coupled GCM

The impact of the warm SST bias in the Southeast Pacific (SEP) on the quality of seasonal and interannual variability and ENSO prediction in a coupled GCM is investigated. The reduction of this bias is achieved by means of empirical heat flux correction that is constant in time. It leads to a wide range of changes in the tropical Pacific climate including enhanced southeast trades, well-defined dry zone in the SEP, better simulation of the South Pacific Convergence Zone and stronger cross-equatorial asymmetry of the mean state in the eastern Pacific. As a result of the mean climate correction, significant improvements in the simulation of the seasonal cycle of the oceanic and atmospheric states are also observed both at the equator and basin-wide. Due to more realistic simulation of the seasonal evolution of the cold tongue, tropical convection and surface winds in the corrected version of the model, phase-lock of ENSO to the annual cycle looses its strong semi-annual component and becomes quite similar to the observed, although the amplitude of ENSO is reduced. Zonal wind stress response to the SST anomalies in the central-eastern Pacific also becomes more realistic. ENSO retrospective forecast experiments conducted with the directly coupled and the flux-corrected versions of the model demonstrate that deficiencies in the seasonal evolution of the cold tongue/Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone complex (that were largely due to the SEP bias in this model) and the related errors in the ENSO phase-lock to the annual cycle can seriously degrade ENSO prediction. By reducing these errors, ENSO predictive skill in the coupled model was substantially enhanced.     

Comparison of a Manual and an Automated Tracking Method for Tibetan Plateau Vortices

Tibetan Plateau vortices(TPVs) are mesoscale cyclones originating over the Tibetan Plateau(TP) during the extended summer season(April–September).Most TPVs stay on the TP,but a small number can move off the TP to the east.TPVs are known to be one of the main precipitation-bearing systems on the TP and moving-off TPVs have been associated with heavy precipitation and flooding downstream of the TP(e.g.,in Sichuan province or over the Yangtze River Valley).Identifying and tracking TPVs is difficult because of their comparatively small horizontal extent(400–800 km) and the limited availability of soundings over the TP,which in turn constitutes a challenge for short-term predictions of TPV-related impacts and for the climatological study of TPVs.In this study,(i) manual tracking(MT) results using radiosonde data from a network over and downstream of the TP are compared with(ii) results obtained by an automated tracking(AT) algorithm applied to ERA-Interim data.Ten MT-TPV cases are selected based on method(i) and matched to and compared with the corresponding AT-TPVs identified with method(ii).Conversely,ten AT-TPVs are selected and compared with the corresponding MT-TPVs.In general,the comparison shows good results in cases where the underlying data are in good agreement,but considerable differences are also seen in some cases and explained in terms of differences in the tracking methods,data availability/coverage and disagreement between sounding and ERA-Interim data.Recommendations are given for future efforts in TPV detection and tracking,including in an operational weather forecasting context.     

Historical and future anthropogenic emission pathways derived from coupled climate�Ccarbon cycle simulations

Using a coupled climate?Ccarbon cycle model, fossil fuel carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions are derived through a reverse approach of prescribing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations according to observations and future projections, respectively. In the second half of the twentieth century, the implied fossil fuel emissions, and also the carbon uptake by land and ocean, are within the range of observational estimates. Larger discrepancies exist in the earlier period (1860?C1960), with small fossil fuel emissions and uncertain emissions from anthropogenic land cover change. In the IPCC SRES A1B scenario, the simulated fossil fuel emissions more than double until 2050 (17 GtC/year) and then decrease to 12 GtC/year by 2100. In addition to A1B, an aggressive mitigation scenario was employed, developed within the European ENSEMBLES project, that peaks at 530 ppm CO₂(equiv) around 2050 and then decreases to approach 450 ppm during the twenty-second century. Consistent with the prescribed pathway of atmospheric CO₂ in E1, the implied fossil fuel emissions increase from currently 8 GtC/year to about 10 by 2015 and decrease thereafter. In the 2050s (2090s) the emissions decrease to 3.4 (0.5) GtC/year, respectively. As in previous studies, our model simulates a positive climate?Ccarbon cycle feedback which tends to reduce the implied emissions by roughly 1 GtC/year per degree global warming. Further, our results suggest that the 450 ppm stabilization scenario may not be sufficient to fulfill the European Union climate policy goal of limiting the global temperature increase to a maximum of 2°C compared to pre-industrial levels.     

Long-term hydrology and aquatic biogeochemistry data from H. J. Andrews Experimental Forest,Cascade Mountains,Oregon

The H. J. Andrews Experimental Forest (HJA) encompasses the 6400 ha Lookout Creek watershed in western Oregon, USA. Hydrologic, chemistry and precipitation data have been collected, curated, and archived for up to 70 years. The HJA was established in 1948 to study the effects of harvest of old-growth conifer forest and logging-road construction on water quality, quantity and vegetation succession. Over time, research questions have expanded to include terrestrial and aquatic species, communities and ecosystem dynamics. There are nine small experimental watersheds and 10 gaging stations in the HJA, including both reference and experimentally treated watersheds. Gaged watershed areas range from 8.5 to 6242 ha. All gaging stations record stage height, water conductivity, water temperature and above-stream air temperature. At nine of the gage sites, flow-proportional water samples are collected and composited over 3-week intervals for chemical analysis. Analysis of stream and precipitation chemistry began in 1968. Analytes include dissolved and particulate species of nitrogen and phosphorus, dissolved organic carbon, pH, specific conductance, suspended sediment, alkalinity, and major cations and anions. Supporting climate measurements began in the 1950s in association with the first small watershed experiments. Over time, and following the initiation of the Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) grant in 1980, infrastructure expanded to include a set of benchmark and secondary meteorological stations located in clearings spanning the elevation range within the Lookout Creek watershed, as well as a large number of forest understory temperature stations. Extensive metadata on sensor configurations, changes in methods over time, sensor accuracy and precision, and data quality control flags are associated with the HJA data.     

Relating millimeter-scale turbulence to meter-scale subtidal erosion and accretion across the fringe of a coastal mangrove forest

Within a wave-exposed mangrove forest, novel field observations are presented, comparing millimeter-scale turbulent water velocity fluctuations with contemporaneous subtidal bed elevation changes. High-resolution velocity and bed level measurements were collected from the unvegetated mudflat, at the mangrove forest fringe, and within the forest interior over multiple tidal cycles (flood–ebb) during a 2-week period. Measurements demonstrated that the spatial variability in vegetation density is a control on sediment transport at sub-meter scales. Scour around single and dense clusters of pneumatophores was predicted by a standard hydraulic engineering equation for wave-induced scour around regular cylinders, when the cylinder diameter in the equations was replaced with the representative diameter of the dense pneumatophore clusters. Waves were dissipated as they propagated into the forest, but dissipation at infragravity periods (> 30 s) was observed to be less than dissipation at shorter periods (< 30 s), consistent with the predictions of a simple model. Cross-wavelet analysis revealed that infragravity-frequency fluctuations in the bed level were occasionally coherent with velocity, possibly indicating scour upstream of dense pneumatophore patches when infragravity waves reinforced tidal currents. Consequently, infragravity waves were a likely driver of sediment transport within the mangrove forest. Near-bed turbulent kinetic energy, estimated from the turbulent dissipation rate, was also correlated with bed level changes. Specifically, within the mangrove forest and over the unvegetated mudflat, high-energy events were associated with erosion or near-zero bed level change, whereas low-energy events were associated with accretion. In contrast, no single relationship between bed level changes and mean current velocity was applicable across both vegetated and unvegetated regions. These observations support the theory that sediment mobilization scales with turbulent energy, rather than mean velocity, a distinction that becomes important when vegetation controls the development of turbulence.     

Recent explosive eruptions and volcano hazards at Soputan volcano—a basalt stratovolcano in north Sulawesi, Indonesia

Soputan is a high-alumina basalt stratovolcano located in the active North Sulawesi-Sangihe Islands magmatic arc. Although immediately adjacent to the still geothermally active Quaternary Tondono Caldera, Soputan’s magmas are geochemically distinct from those of the caldera and from other magmas in the arc. Unusual for a basalt volcano, Soputan produces summit lava domes and explosive eruptions with high-altitude ash plumes and pyroclastic flows—eight explosive eruptions during the period 2003–2011. Our field observations, remote sensing, gas emission, seismic, and petrologic analyses indicate that Soputan is an open-vent-type volcano that taps basalt magma derived from the arc-mantle wedge, accumulated and fractionated in a deep-crustal reservoir and transported slowly or staged at shallow levels prior to eruption. A combination of high phenocryst content, extensive microlite crystallization and separation of a gas phase at shallow levels results in a highly viscous basalt magma and explosive eruptive style. The open-vent structure and frequent eruptions indicate that Soputan will likely erupt again in the next decade, perhaps repeatedly. Explosive eruptions in the Volcano Explosivity Index (VEI) 2–3 range and lava dome growth are most probable, with a small chance of larger VEI 4 eruptions. A rapid ramp up in seismicity preceding the recent eruptions suggests that future eruptions may have no more than a few days of seismic warning. Risk to population in the region is currently greatest for villages located on the southern and western flanks of the volcano where flow deposits are directed by topography. In addition, Soputan’s explosive eruptions produce high-altitude ash clouds that pose a risk to air traffic in the region.     

Sigmoidal particle density distribution in a subplinian scoria fall deposit

A general expression to describe particle density distribution in tephra fall deposits is essential to improve fallout tephra mass determination and numerical modelling of tephra dispersion. To obtain particle density distributions in tephra fall deposits, we performed high-resolution componentry and particle density analyses on samples from the 2006 subplinian eruption of Tungurahua volcano in Ecuador. Six componentry classes, including pumice and scoria, have been identified in our sample collection. We determined the class of 300 clasts in each 0.5? fractions from ?4.5? to 3.5? and carried out water pycnometry density measurements on selected size fractions. Results indicate that the mean particle density increases with ? up to a plateau of ~2.6?g/cm³ for clasts finer than 1.5?. The density of scoria and pumice increases between ?3 and 1?, while dense particle density is sub-constant with grainsize. We show that the mean particle density ?? of the vesicular fractions is a function of grainsize i (? scale) given by a sigmoidal law: $ \mu (i)={{{K+\beta }} \left/ {{\left( {1+\alpha {e^{-ri }}} \right)}} \right.} $ , where K, ??, ?? and r are constants. These sigmoidal distributions can be used to determine accurately the load of each componentry class and should be applicable to many tephra deposits and for modelling purposes.     

Multi‐method virtual electromagnetic experiments for developing suitable monitoring designs: A fictitious CO2 sequestration scenario in Northern Germany

We present a numerical study for 3D time‐lapse electromagnetic monitoring of a fictitious CO₂ sequestration using the geometry of a real geological site and a suite of suitable electromagnetic methods with different source/receiver configurations and different sensitivity patterns. All available geological information is processed and directly implemented into the computational domain, which is discretized by unstructured tetrahedral grids. We thus demonstrate the performance capability of our numerical simulation techniques. The scenario considers a CO₂ injection in approximately 1100 m depth. The expected changes in conductivity were inferred from preceding laboratory measurements. A resistive anomaly is caused within the conductive brines of the undisturbed reservoir horizon. The resistive nature of the anomaly is enhanced by the CO₂ dissolution regime, which prevails in the high‐salinity environment. Due to the physicochemical properties of CO₂, the affected portion of the subsurface is laterally widespread but very thin. We combine controlled‐source electromagnetics, borehole transient electromagnetics, and the direct‐current resistivity method to perform a virtual experiment with the aim of scrutinizing a set of source/receiver configurations with respect to coverage, resolution, and detectability of the anomalous CO₂ plume prior to the field survey. Our simulation studies are carried out using the 3D codes developed in our working group. They are all based on linear and higher order Lagrange and Nédélec finite‐element formulations on unstructured grids, providing the necessary flexibility with respect to the complex real‐world geometry. We provide different strategies for addressing the accuracy of numerical simulations in the case of arbitrary structures. The presented computations demonstrate the expected great advantage of positioning transmitters or receivers close to the target. For direct‐current geoelectrics, 50% change in electric potential may be detected even at the Earth's surface. Monitoring with inductive methods is also promising. For a well‐positioned surface transmitter, more than 10% difference in the vertical electric field is predicted for a receiver located 200 m above the target. Our borehole transient electromagnetics results demonstrate that traditional transient electromagnetics with a vertical magnetic dipole source is not well suited for monitoring a thin horizontal resistive target. This is due to the mainly horizontal current system, which is induced by a vertical magnetic dipole.     

Sediment rejection by recent scleractinian corals: a key to palaeo-environmental reconstruction

26 of the 59 living species of scleractinian corals found in Western Atlantic and Caribbean waters, less than 68 metres deep, and two fungiid genera from the Pacific are analysed in terms of their behaviour, sediment rejecting properties, functional morphology and distribution patterns.The contrasting behaviour and skeletal structure of the two solitary fungiids provides evidence for the construction of a theoretical mechanical model which is applied to the subsequent interpretation of the more complex colonial reef corals from the Atlantic province.Regional distribution patterns, growth forms and calical orientations of the Atlantic species and their associated sediment types were noted in dives across transects in extreme environments in the Caribbean. Representative samples were then selected from the five functional ecological niches in the Florida keys, and subjected to inundations of sized and painted carbonate sand particles in the laboratory. The coral was filmed before the sedimentary influx, on impact and during rejection. The skeletons were then extracted and dissected to construct a mechanical model compatible with their behavioural functions.There are four means of sediment rejection: distension by the stomodeal up-take of water, tentacular action, ciliary beat, and mucus entanglement. Differences in sediment rejection are ascribed to two factors (1) variations in the polyps' distensional capacity, and (2) the geometry of the calice.A theoretical model of characteristic scleractinian distribution patterns on an Atlantic patch reef mirrors regional distribution patterns. The sediment rejecting experiments are used as additional evidence for interpreting other behavioural activities of greater consequence e.g. food gathering and the removal of excrement.Theoretical models are described for the relationship of calical form to polypal function and calcical orientation to distribution patterns on the corallum; and also variations in growth form. Ecological distributions, in local patch reef and regional occurrences, are outlined in terms of the recent scleractinian corals of the Atlantic province. These models are tested against some rugose and tabulate coral distributions in the Irish Carboniferous.

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Zusammenfassung 26 der 59 Korallenarten (Scleractinia), die im westlichen Atlantik und der Karibischen See in weniger als 68 m Wassertiefe leben, und 2 Fungia-Gattungen des Pazifiks werden auf Verhalten, Fähigkeit Sediment abzuschütteln und funktioneller Morphologie untersucht. Aufgrund der Gegensätze in Verhalten und Skelettstruktur der beiden Fungia-Einzelkorallen wird ein theoretisches Modell erarbeitet, das dann auf die komplizierteren koloniebildenden Korallen angewandt wird.Regionale Verteilung, Wuchsformen und Kelchorientierung der atlantischen Korallen und die dazugehörigen Sedimente wurden in Tauchgängen in extremen Bereichen der Karibischen See erfaßt. Repräsentative Korallen-Exemplare wurden dann von fünf ökologisch definierten Bereichen der Florida Keys gesammelt und im Labor mit sortierten und gefärbten Karbonatsandkörnern überschüttet. Die Korallen wurden vor dem Experiment, während des Schüttens und des Abschüttelns gefilmt. Danach wurden die Skelette herauspräpariert und ein mechanisches Modell entwickelt, das die verhaltensbedingten Funktionen berücksichtigt.Das Sediment wird mit Hilfe von vier Mechanismen abgeschütteln: Ausdehnung der Weichteile durch Aufnahme von Wasser, Tentakelbewegungen, Ziliarbewegungen und Schleimumwicklung. Unterschiede in der Fähigkeit, Sediment abzuschütteln, wurden auf 1. Unterschiede in der Fähigkeit des Polypen, sich auszudehnen, und 2. Unterschiede in der Kelchform zurückgeführt.Ein theoretisches Modell der Korallenverteilung auf einem isolierten Riff spiegelt die Grundzüge regionaler Verteilung wider. Die Sedimentabschüttel-Experimente ergeben zusätzliche Anhaltspunkte für die Interpretation anderer Verrichtungen von größerer Bedeutung, z. B. Nahrungsaufnahme und Entfernung von Exkrementen. Theoretische Modelle für das Verhältnis von Kelchform zu Polypenfunktion und von Kelchorientierung zur Position auf dem Korallenstock und zu Wuchformunterschieden werden beschrieben.Ökologische Verteilungen, lokal und regional, werden anhand der rezenten Korallen des Atlantiks aufgezeigt. Diese Modelle werden dann am Beispiel der Verteilung rugosen und tabulaten Korallen im Karbon Irlands getestet.

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Résumé 26 espèces vivantes de coraux scléractiniens sur 59, furent découvertes dans l'Atlantique-Ouest et les eaux des Caraïbes, à moins de 68 m de fond; 2 genera fungiid du Pacifique sont analysés en fonction de leur comportement, des propriétés de rejet des sédiments dont ils font preuve, de leur morphologie fonctionelle et de leurs reséaux de distribution.Le contraste dans le compartement et dans la structure squelettique des deux fungiids solitaires, justifie la construction d'un modèle théorique mécanique qui est appliqué à l'interprétation suivante des coraux de récif coloniaux et plus complexes que l'on trouve dans la région atlantique.Les réseaux de distribution régionale, les formes de croissances d'orientations calicales de l'espèce atlantique et les types de sédiments qui leur sont associés, ont été remarqués lors de plongées aux environs extrêmes de la mer Caraïbe. Des échantillons représentatifs ont ensuite été sélectionnés dans les cinq niches écologiques fonctionelles des cayes de Floride. Puis ont été soumis, en laboratoire à des inondations de particules de sable carbonaté taillées et teintes. Le corail a été filmé avant l'entrée des sédiments, pendant l'opération et pendant le rejet. Les squelettes, ont ensuite été extraits et disséqués pour construire un modèle mécanique compatible avec leurs fonctions de compartement.Il existe quatre modes de rejet des sédiments: dilatation par absorbsion stomodéal d'eau, action tentaculaire, action ciliaire et enveloppement de mucus.Les différences dans le rejet de sédiments sont imputables a deux facteurs (1) les variations de la capacité dimensionelle du polype et (2) la géométrie du calice. Un modèle théorique des réseaux le distribution scléractiniènne, charactéristique sur un petit récif atlantique, réflecte des sébeaux de distribution régionale. Les expériences sur le rejet de sédiments, sont utilisées comme preuve supplémentaire à l'interprétation d'autres activités de comportement, comme par exemple, la recherche de nourriture ou l'émission d'éxcréments.Les modèles théoriques sont décrits pour permettre le rapport entre la forme calicale et la fonction polypale, plus entre l'orientation calicale et les résaux de distribution sur le corallum, ainsi que pour étudier les variations dans les formes de croissance. L'étude des coraux scléractiniens récents de la province atlantique, permet d'établir une ébauche de leur répartition écologique, aussi bien sur les petits récifs locaux qu'au niveau des incidences régionales. Les modèles sont également testés grace à des répartitions de coraux rugueux et tabulates dans le Carbonifière Irlandais.

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