A new method to detect transitory signatures and local time/space variability structures in the climate system: the scale-dependent correlation analysis

The study of transitory signals and local variability structures in both/either time and space and their role as sources of climatic memory, is an important but often neglected topic in climate research despite its obvious importance and extensive coverage in the literature. Transitory signals arise either from non-linearities, in the climate system, transitory atmosphere–ocean couplings, and other processes in the climate system evolving after a critical threshold is crossed. These temporary interactions that, though intense, may not last long, can be responsible for a large amount of unexplained variability but are normally considered of limited relevance and often, discarded. With most of the current techniques at hand these typology of signatures are difficult to isolate because the low signal-to-noise ratio in midlatitudes, the limited recurrence of the transitory signals during a customary interval of data considered. Also, there is often a serious problem arising from the smoothing of local or transitory processes if statistical techniques are applied, that consider all the length of data available, rather than taking into account the size of the specific variability structure under investigation. Scale-dependent correlation (SDC) analysis is a new statistical method capable of highlighting the presence of transitory processes, these former being understood as temporary significant lag-dependent autocovariance in a single series, or covariance structures between two series. This approach, therefore, complements other approaches such as those resulting from the families of wavelet analysis, singular-spectrum analysis and recurrence plots. A main feature of SDC is its high-performance for short time series, its ability to characterize phase-relationships and thresholds in the bivariate domain. Ultimately, SDC helps tracking short-lagged relationships among processes that locally or temporarily couple and uncouple. The use of SDC is illustrated in the present paper by means of some synthetic time-series examples of increasing complexity, and it is compared with wavelet analysis in order to provide a well-known reference of its capabilities. A comparison between SDC and companion techniques is also addressed and results are exemplified for the specific case of some relevant El Niño-Southern Oscillation teleconnections.     

The glacial inception as recorded in the NorthGRIP Greenland ice core: timing, structure and associated abrupt temperature changes

The mechanisms involved in the glacial inception are still poorly constrained due to a lack of high resolution and cross-dated climate records at various locations. Using air isotopic measurements in the recently drilled NorthGRIP ice core, we show that no evidence exists for stratigraphic disturbance of the climate record of the last glacial inception (∼123–100 kyears BP) encompassing Dansgaard–Oeschger events (DO) 25, 24 and 23, even if we lack sufficient resolution to completely rule out disturbance over DO 25. We quantify the rapid surface temperature variability over DO 23 and 24 with associated warmings of 10±2.5 and 16±2.5°C, amplitudes which mimic those observed in full glacial conditions. We use records of δ¹⁸O of O₂ to propose a common timescale for the NorthGRIP and the Antarctic Vostok ice cores, with a maximum uncertainty of 2,500 years, and to examine the interhemispheric sequence of events over this period. After a synchronous North–South temperature decrease, the onset of rapid events is triggered in the North through DO 25. As for later events, DO 24 and 23 have a clear Antarctic counterpart which does not seem to be the case for the very first abrupt warming (DO 25). This information, when added to intermediate levels of CO₂ and to the absence of clear ice rafting associated with DO 25, highlights the uniqueness of this first event, while DO 24 and 23 appear similar to typical full glacial DO events.     

Development and behaviour of a radar-based operational tool for hailstorms identification

Hailstorms are a common meteorological phenomenon in Spain which causes substantial economic damage especially in spring and summer. During 2000 and 2001, a radar-based application for convective monitoring was developed at STAP (Forecasting and Analysis Techniques Department); in order to improve this nowcasting tool, it is needed to include an advanced procedure to estimate the presence of hail as a complementary module in the operational application. A preliminary study, carried out during 2001, showed that the Waldvogel technique, VIL (vertical integrated liquid) density and the hail detection algorithm (HDA) are the methodologies which proved more accurate in our latitudes.Throughout the spring and summer of 2001, all available information about hail events (time, place and hail size) and about storms without hail was used for tuning an experimental module to detect severe and non-severe hailstorms, taking into account the selected algorithms. During 2002, further information about storms was gathered in order to assess the behaviour of the developed hail module. Afterwards, a new module calibration was carried out with the information of the complete storms data set of 2001 and 2002. With this new calibration, the hail module became an operational tool during the spring and summer of 2003. Currently, the verification of the operational module using the data from the storms in 2003 is being elaborated. The aim of this work is to put forward the calibration procedure carried out, the verification results of 2002, and the performance of the hail estimate module in selected cases during 2003 in Spain.     

The long-time decay of rotating homogeneous flows over variable topography

The long-time decay of rotating, homogeneous flows over variable topography is analyzed by means of laboratory experiments and numerical simulations. The influence of the topography on the flow evolution is associated with stretching and squeezing effects on fluid columns as they experience changes in depth, and with viscous effects produced by the boundary condition at the solid bottom of the tank. In particular, experiments with a sine-shaped topography in one of the horizontal directions are analyzed by using two different basic flows. First, the evolution of dipolar vortices drifting across the topography while slowly decaying, is examined. The second set of experiments considers the evolution and decay of an initially circular vortex transforming into a tripolar structure. The experiments are well represented by numerical simulations based on a quasi-two-dimensional formulation with variable topography.     

Uncertainties in projected impacts of climate change on European agriculture and terrestrial ecosystems based on scenarios from regional climate models

The uncertainties and sources of variation in projected impacts of climate change on agriculture and terrestrial ecosystems depend not only on the emission scenarios and climate models used for projecting future climates, but also on the impact models used, and the local soil and climatic conditions of the managed or unmanaged ecosystems under study. We addressed these uncertainties by applying different impact models at site, regional and continental scales, and by separating the variation in simulated relative changes in ecosystem performance into the different sources of uncertainty and variation using analyses of variance. The crop and ecosystem models used output from a range of global and regional climate models (GCMs and RCMs) projecting climate change over Europe between 1961–1990 and 2071–2100 under the IPCC SRES scenarios. The projected impacts on productivity of crops and ecosystems included the direct effects of increased CO₂ concentration on photosynthesis. The variation in simulated results attributed to differences between the climate models were, in all cases, smaller than the variation attributed to either emission scenarios or local conditions. The methods used for applying the climate model outputs played a larger role than the choice of the GCM or RCM. The thermal suitability for grain maize cultivation in Europe was estimated to expand by 30–50% across all SRES emissions scenarios. Strong increases in net primary productivity (NPP) (35–54%) were projected in northern European ecosystems as a result of a longer growing season and higher CO₂ concentrations. Changing water balance dominated the projected responses of southern European ecosystems, with NPP declining or increasing only slightly relative to present-day conditions. Both site and continental scale models showed large increases in yield of rain-fed winter wheat for northern Europe, with smaller increases or even decreases in southern Europe. Site-based, regional and continental scale models showed large spatial variations in the response of nitrate leaching from winter wheat cultivation to projected climate change due to strong interactions with soils and climate. The variation in simulated impacts was smaller between scenarios based on RCMs nested within the same GCM than between scenarios based on different GCMs or between emission scenarios.     

Molybdenum and tungsten in volcanic rocks and in surface and <100 °C ground waters in Iceland

The concentrations of Mo and W in tholeiite series basaltic to silicic volcanics in Iceland increase with the concentrations of incompatible magmatic elements. In normal Mid Ocean Ridge Basalt (MORB), Mo and W levels are as low as 0.03 and 0.01 ppm but in rhyolites they are up to 4 and 1.3 ppm, respectively. In the slightly evolved Tertiary tholeiites of the main study area of Skagafjördur, northern Iceland, Mo and W concentrations are 1.01 and 0.32 ppm, respectively, on average. Surface waters in this area typically contain <0.5 ppb Mo and <0.1 ppb W. Concentrations are higher in ground waters and, on the whole, they increase with increasing temperature and increasing age of these waters, being as high as ∼100 ppb for Mo and ∼10 ppb for W in the hottest (∼90 °C) and oldest (>10,000 years) waters. In river and ground waters, the average Mo/W ratio is the same as that of the basalt host rock. On the other hand, in peat soil waters, the average Mo/W ratio is higher due to adsorption processes involving W. In river and ground waters, both Mo and W display conservative behavior. Progressive water-rock interaction leads to successively lower aquatic B/Mo and B/W ratios. However, the B/Mo and B/W ratios of the most reacted waters are considerably higher than those of the basalt due to non-stoichiometric rock dissolution: B is dissolved preferentially to both Mo and W because B is largely present in a soluble form, but Mo and W are concentrated in the Fe-Ti-oxides. These minerals are stable, under both surface and sub-surface conditions, i.e. the waters are over-saturated with respect to these minerals. The main supply of Mo and W to surface waters is from dissolution of plagioclase and pyroxene, as well as volcanic glass. Olivine is not an important source due to its scarcity in the basalts. In <30 °C ground waters, the dominant supply of Mo and W is plagioclase. At higher temperatures pyroxene also contributes, with its contribution increasing with increasing temperature, as deduced from its decreasing stability at higher temperature. Dissolution of basaltic glass produces lower B/Mo and B/W aqueous ratios than dissolution of crystalline basalt.     

Progressive aqueous alteration of CM carbonaceous chondrites

CM chondrites are aqueously altered rocks that contain ∼9 wt% H₂O⁺ (i.e., indigenous water) bound in phyllosilicates; also present are clumps of serpentine-tochilinite intergrowths (previously called “poorly characterized phases” or PCP), pentlandite and Ni-bearing pyrrhotite. We studied 11 CM chondrites that span the known range from least altered to most altered. We used various petrologic properties (many previously identified) that provide information regarding the degree of aqueous alteration. There are no known unaltered or slightly altered CM chondrites (e.g., rocks containing numerous chondrules with primary igneous glass). Some CM properties result from processes associated with early and intermediate stages of the alteration sequence (i.e., hydration of matrix, alteration of chondrule glass, and production of large PCP clumps). Other petrologic properties reflect processes active throughout the alteration sequence; these include oxidation of metallic Fe-Ni, alteration of chondrule phenocrysts, changes in PCP composition (reflecting an increase in the phyllosilicate/sulfide ratio), and changes in carbonate mineralogy (reflecting the development of dolomite and complex carbonates at the expense of Ca carbonate).On the basis of these parameters, we propose a numerical alteration sequence for CM chondrites. Because there are no known CM samples that display only incipient alteration, the least altered sample was arbitrarily assigned to subtype 2.6. The most altered CM chondrites, currently classified CM1, are assigned to subtype 2.0. These highly altered rocks have essentially no mafic silicates; they contain chondrule pseudomorphs composed mainly of phyllosilicate. However, their bulk compositions are CM-like, and they are closer in texture to other C2 chondrites than to CI1 chondrites (which lack chondrule pseudomorphs). Using several diagnostic criteria, we assigned petrologic subtypes (±0.1) to every CM chondrite in our study: QUE 97990, CM2.6; Murchison, CM2.5; Kivesvaara, CM2.5; Murray, CM2.4/2.5; Y 791198, CM2.4; QUE 99355, CM2.3; Nogoya, CM2.2; Cold Bokkeveld, CM2.2; QUE 93005, CM2.1; LAP 02277, CM2.0; MET 01070, CM2.0.The proposed CM numerical alteration sequence improves upon the existing scheme of Browning et al. (1996) in that it does not require a complicated algorithm applied to electron-microprobe data to determine the average matrix phyllosilicate composition. The new sequence is more comprehensive and employs petrologic subtypes that are easier to use and remember than mineralogic alteration index values.New neutron-activation analyses of QUE 97990, QUE 93005, MET 01070, Murchison and Crescent, together with literature data, confirm the compositional uniformity of the CM group; different degrees of alteration among CM chondrites do not lead to resolvable bulk compositional differences. This suggests that the textural differences among individual CM chondrites reflect progressive alteration of similar hypothetical CM3.0 starting materials in different regions of the same parent body, with minimal aqueous transport of materials over appreciable (e.g., meters) distances.     

Paleoceanographic evolution of the SW Svalbard margin (76°N) since 20,000 C yr BP

Two cores from the southwestern shelf and slope of Storfjorden, Svalbard, taken at 389 m and 1485 m water depth have been analyzed for benthic and planktic foraminifera, oxygen isotopes, and ice-rafted debris. The results show that over the last 20,000 yr, Atlantic water has been continuously present on the southwestern Svalbard shelf. However, from 15,000 to 10,000 ¹⁴C yr BP, comprising the Heinrich event H1 interval, the Bølling-Allerød interstades and the Younger Dryas stade, it flowed as a subsurface water mass below a layer of polar surface water. In the benthic environment, the shift to interglacial conditions occurred at 10,000 ¹⁴C yr BP. Due to the presence of a thin upper layer of polar water, surface conditions remained cold until ca. 9000 ¹⁴C yr BP, when the warm Atlantic water finally appeared at the surface. Neither extensive sea ice cover nor large inputs of meltwater stopped the inflow of Atlantic water. Its warm core was merely submerged below the cold polar surface water.     

Predation on the rocky shores of Patagonia,Argentina

Rocky intertidal communities of Argentinean Patagonia are exposed to harsh physical conditions caused by dry, strong southern trade winds (mean speed 45 km h^-1, gusts up to 140 km h^-1) that result in intense desiccation of intertidal organisms. Predator distributions in these communities were evaluated from April 2003 to December 2004 at two exposed headlands and six protected bays in Cabo dos Bahias (44°50′S, 65°40′W). Crabs and sea stars dominated the predator assemblage, with occasional scavenger snails and fish also present. During low tide, predators were never found in the open but were always associated with shelter (primarily within mussel beds and coralline algae), suggesting a strong predator dependency on foundation species to buffer them from physical stress. Few predators (mostly crabs) emerged from shelter at high tide. Unlike the larger predators found on Chilean rocky shores, invertebrate predators in this system are diminutive, generally < 2 cm. The lone exception was the newly discovered invasive green crab,Carcinus mamas. Feeding trials, gut content analyses, and visual surveys indicated that native predators feed primarily on small, soft-bodied prey.C. mamas fed on slow-moving and sessile animals, including the super abundant musselPerumytilus purpuratus, with much greater voracity than native predators. Because native intertidal organisms are dependent on mussel beds and coralline algae for shelter from desiccation, successful invasion ofC. mamas may lead to a significant decrease in native diversity by consuming foundation species. This study represents a preliminary survey of predator distributions and feeding habits on the rocky shores of Argentinean Patagonia and provides important baseline data to evaluate trophic linkages and predatory effects on Patagonian rocky shores.     

某动力机器基础动力学分析

当动力机器基础体积较大时,采用《动力机器基础设计规范》(GB 50040-96)推荐的简化计算方法进行动力计算,计算结果可能具有较大的误差而不能用于工程设计,此时进行三维数值分析是必要的。在介绍弹性动力学分析的基础上,使用通用有限元软件ANSYS8.0,对某设备基础进行了模态分析和谐相应分析,得出了该动力机器基础的低阶固有频率准确值,以及该动力机器基础随外部荷载频率改变的振幅变化曲线,进而得出一些重要结论,为该工程设计提供了可靠参考。