Potential for small scale added value of RCM’s downscaled climate change signal

In recent decades, the need of future climate information at local scales have pushed the climate modelling community to perform increasingly higher resolution simulations and to develop alternative approaches to obtain fine-scale climatic information. In this article, various nested regional climate model (RCM) simulations have been used to try to identify regions across North America where high-resolution downscaling generates fine-scale details in the climate projection derived using the “delta method”. Two necessary conditions were identified for an RCM to produce added value (AV) over lower resolution atmosphere-ocean general circulation models in the fine-scale component of the climate change (CC) signal. First, the RCM-derived CC signal must contain some non-negligible fine-scale information—independently of the RCM ability to produce AV in the present climate. Second, the uncertainty related with the estimation of this fine-scale information should be relatively small compared with the information itself in order to suggest that RCMs are able to simulate robust fine-scale features in the CC signal. Clearly, considering necessary (but not sufficient) conditions means that we are studying the “potential” of RCMs to add value instead of the AV, which preempts and avoids any discussion of the actual skill and hence the need for hindcast comparisons. The analysis concentrates on the CC signal obtained from the seasonal-averaged temperature and precipitation fields and shows that the fine-scale variability of the CC signal is generally small compared to its large-scale component, suggesting that little AV can be expected for the time-averaged fields. For the temperature variable, the largest potential for fine-scale added value appears in coastal regions mainly related with differential warming in land and oceanic surfaces. Fine-scale features can account for nearly 60 % of the total CC signal in some coastal regions although for most regions the fine scale contributions to the total CC signal are of around ～5 %. For the precipitation variable, fine scales contribute to a change of generally less than 15 % of the seasonal-averaged precipitation in present climate with a continental North American average of ～5 % in both summer and winter seasons. In the case of precipitation, uncertainty due to sampling issues may further dilute the information present in the downscaled fine scales. These results suggest that users of RCM simulations for climate change studies in a delta method framework have little high-resolution information to gain from RCMs at least if they limit themselves to the study of first-order statistical moments. Other possible benefits arising from the use of RCMs—such as in the large scale of the downscaled fields– were not explored in this research.     

Climate change and summer mass tourism: the case of Spanish domestic tourism

This paper investigates the impact of climate change on destination choice decisions in a context of domestic coastal tourism in Spain. Destinations are characterized in terms of travel cost and coastal ‘attractors’, such as temperature and beach-related attributes. By means of a discrete choice model based on the random utility theory, these variables are used to explain the observed pattern of interprovincial domestic trips, showing trade-offs between temperature and attractiveness in the probability of a particular destination being chosen. The model is used to investigate the impact of two climate change scenarios on the allocation of domestic tourism within Spain. The findings show that while Spain’s northern colder provinces would benefit from rising temperatures, provinces in the south would experience a decrease in the frequency of trips.     

浙北梅雨季低空急流特征及其与暴雨的关系

应用2004-2011年常规探空资料、浙江北部雨量资料和2011年NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,对梅雨季影响浙北的西南低空急流进行统计,并在此基础上对急流活动与浙北暴雨的关系进行了分析,为浙江北部梅雨期暴雨的预报提供实际参考价值.结果表明:西南风低空急流在700 hPa层上出现次数最多,自上而下减少,其活动有明显的日变化特征,早晨增强,傍晚减弱;在不同类型的低空急流中,以SJ型、DJU型和TJ型居多,而DJL型急流偏少.浙北梅雨季暴雨发生前近90％伴有急流活动,其中DJU型急流较多;夜间暴雨比白天暴雨更依赖于低空急流,夜间暴雨发生前12h即有低空急流建立.2011年6月中旬的暴雨集中期对应着两次西南风低空急流的增强过程,低空急流最大风速出现在600 hPa附近并向低层伸展.     

Characteristics of carbonyl compounds in ambient air of Shanghai,China

The levels of carbonyl compounds in Shanghai ambient air were measured in five periods from January 2007 to October 2007 (covering winter, high-air-pollution days, spring, summer and autumn). A total of 114 samples were collected and eighteen carbonyls were identified. Formaldehyde, acetaldehyde and acetone were the most abundant carbonyls and their mean concentrations of 19.40 ± 12.00, 15.92 ± 12.07 and 11.86 ± 7.04 μg m⁻³ respectively, in the daytime for five sampling periods. Formaldehyde and acetaldehyde showed similar diurnal profiles with peak mixing ratios in the morning and early afternoon during the daytime. Their mean concentrations were highest in summer and lowest in winter. Acetone showed reversed seasonal variation. The high molecular weight (HMW, ≥C5) carbonyls also showed obvious diurnal variations with higher concentrations in the daytime in summer and autumn, while they were all not detected in winter. Formaldehyde and acetaldehyde played an important role in removing OH radicals in the atmosphere, but the contribution of acetone was below 1%. The carbonyls levels in high-air-pollution days were reported. More carbonyl species with higher concentrations were found in high-air-pollution days than in spring. These carbonyls were transported with other pollutants from north and northwest in March 27 to April 2, 2007 and then mixed with local sources. Comparing with Beijing and Guangzhou, the concentrations of formaldehyde and acetaldehyde in Shanghai were the highest, which indicated that the air pollution in Shanghai was even worse than expected.     

Investigation of regional climate models’ internal variability with a ten-member ensemble of 10-year simulations over a large domain

Previous investigations on regional climate models’ (RCM) internal variability (IV) were limited owing to small ensembles, short simulations and small domains. The present work extends previous studies with a ten-member ensemble of 10-year simulations performed with the Canadian Regional Climate Model over a large domain covering North America. The results show that the IV has no long-term tendency but rather fluctuates in time following the synoptic situation within the domain. The IV of mean-sea-level pressure (MSLP) and screen temperature (ST) show a small annual cycle with larger values in spring, which differs from previous studies. For precipitation (PCP), the IV shows a clear annual cycle with larger values in summer, as previously reported. The 10-year climatology of the IV for MSLP and ST shows a well-defined spatial distribution with larger values in the northeast of the domain, near the outflow boundary. A comparison of the IV of MSLP and ST in summer with the transient-eddy variance reveals that the IV is close to its maximum in a small region near the outflow boundary. Same analysis for PCP in summer shows that the IV reaches its maximum in most parts of the domain, except for a small region on the western side near the inflow boundary. Finally, a comparison of the 10-year climate of each simulation of the ensemble showed that the IV may have a significant impact on the climatology of some variables.     

Climate change and infectious diseases: Can we meet the needs for better prediction?

The next generation of climate-driven, disease prediction models will most likely require a mechanistically based, dynamical framework that parameterizes key processes at a variety of locations. Over the next two decades, consensus climate predictions make it possible to produce forecasts for a number of important infectious diseases that are largely independent of the uncertainty of longer-term emissions scenarios. In particular, the role of climate in the modulation of seasonal disease transmission needs to be unravelled from the complex dynamics resulting from the interaction of transmission with herd immunity and intervention measures that depend upon previous burdens of infection. Progress is also needed to solve the mismatch between climate projections and disease projections at the scale of public health interventions. In the time horizon of seasons to years, early warning systems should benefit from current developments on multi-model ensemble climate prediction systems, particularly in areas where high skill levels of climate models coincide with regions where large epidemics take place. A better understanding of the role of climate extremes on infectious diseases is urgently needed.     

2019年6月桂林三次强降水天气成因对比分析

利用多普勒雷达、气象卫星、自动气象站等监测数据以及NCEP再分析资料,对桂林2019年6月6-12日接连3次强降水天气过程的环流背景、影响系统与形成原因进行了对比分析。结果表明:(1)3次过程按影响系统分属暖区暴雨、低涡暴雨和锋面暴雨过程,均发生在高空急流右侧辐散、低空急流左侧辐合叠加区。(2)3次过程均受500 hPa短波槽和地面中尺度辐合线影响,但第1次过程中西南急流及地形等、第2次过程中低涡切变线、第3次过程中冷锋也起到重要作用。(3)3次过程的触发系统不同,第1次暖区暴雨过程迎风坡地形对其起触发作用,西南急流使得后向传播的对流云带维持;第2次低涡暴雨过程的触发系统为低层位于贵州一带的西南涡,西部冷空气侵入与西南急流加强是低涡对流云团维持较长时间的原因;第3次锋面暴雨的触发系统为冷锋,锋面配合锋前暖湿气流使对流云带加强。(4)第1次过程暖区暴雨MCS模态主要为线状后向扩建类,极端强降水出现在线对流中后端;第2次过程低涡暴雨MCS模态为涡旋类,极端强降水出现在涡旋中心附近;第3次过程锋面暴雨MCS模态由前期后部层云区线状对流转为层状云包裹对流系统,强降水发生在线对流弯曲或中心强回波处。     

Recent Near-surface Temperature Trends in the Antarctic Peninsula from Observed,Reanalysis and Regional Climate Model Data

This study investigates the recent near-surface temperature trends over the Antarctic Peninsula.We make use of available surface observations,ECMWF’s ERA5 and its predecessor ERA-Interim,as well as numerical simulations,allowing us to contrast different data sources.We use hindcast simulations performed with Polar-WRF over the Antarctic Peninsula on a nested domain configuration at 45 km(PWRF-45)and 15 km(PWRF-15)spatial resolutions for the period 1991?2015.In addition,we include hindcast simulations of KNMI-RACMO21P obtained from the CORDEX-Antarctica domain(~50 km)for further comparisons.Results show that there is a marked windward warming trend except during summer.This windward warming trend is particularly notable in the autumn season and likely to be associated with the recent deepening of the Amundsen/Bellingshausen Sea low and warm advection towards the Antarctic Peninsula.On the other hand,an overall summer cooling is characterized by the strengthening of the Weddell Sea low as well as an anticyclonic trend over the Amundsen Sea accompanied by northward winds.The persistent cooling trend observed at the Larsen Ice Shelf station is not captured by ERA-Interim,whereas hindcast simulations indicate that there is a clear pattern of windward warming and leeward cooling.Furthermore,larger temporal correlations and lower differences exhibited by PWRF-15 illustrate the existence of the added value in the higher spatial resolution simulation.     

A Reconstructed Wind Stress Dataset for Climate Research over the Tropical Pacific during a 153-Year Period

There are close relationships between the sea surface temperature (SST) and the surface wind over the tropical Pacific.To study the past climate variability over the tropical Pacific,the long-term monthly wind stress anomalies over the tropical Pacific for the period of 1856–2008 are reconstructed with an SVD (singular value decomposition)-based statistical atmospheric model,where the wind stress anomalies are slave and directly correspond to the SST anomalies.The verification results show that the reconstructed wind stress data have high correlations and a small root mean square (RMS) error with the three reanalysis/simulated surface wind datasets from the last 50 years.In addition,the simulated SST anomalies from an intermediate oceanic model (IOM),which is forced by the reconstructed wind stress,can simulate the realistic interannual and decadal variability of the ENSO (El Nio-Southern Oscillation);this indicates that this new long-term wind stress dataset is useful for various climate studies,especially for the large-scale interannual and decadal variability.