Modelling changes in the epidemic range of Southern Pine Beetle using temperature and objective moisture indicators

Summary This report details as statistical model that relates changes in areal coverage of the Southern Pine Beetle (Dendroctonus frontalis Zimm.) to a multivariate combination of temperature and moisture status indices. It is applicable to larger geographic areas than our previous work (Michaels 1984). Performance in a true test (predictive) mode detected the algebraic sign of major coverage changes in a highly significant fashion. The results are purely correlative, rather than causative.This report describes a test-proven tool that can be used by planners to determine whether coverage will change, based upon easily accessed climatic data. An example of its application is provided.

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Zusammenfassung Diese Untersuchung führt ein statistisches Modell aus, welches das flächenmäßige Auftreten vonDendroctonus frontalis Zimm. mit einer Kombination von Temperaturund Feuchteverhältnisindikatoren in Verbindung bringt. Es kann für größere Gebiete verwendet werden als ein früher vorgestelltes (Michaels 1984). Die Anwendung zur Vorhersage zeigte in einem Test gute Übereinstimmung mit der tatsächlich aufgetretenen Richtung der Veränderung in der Verbreitung des Käfers. Die Ergebnisse zeigen Korrelationen, keine Kausalitäten auf.Es wird also ein Werkzeug für den Planer vorgestellt, mit dem die Verbreitungsänderung mit Hilfe leicht zugänglicher klimatologischer Daten bestimmt werden kann. Ein Anwendungsbeispiel wird näher ausgeführt.

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With 5 Figures     

Tsunamis as geological agents

When a tsunami wave series approaches and interacts with a coast, the consequent passage shorewards of great volumes of water and their invasion of the land, especially within bays and up river valleys, results in the disturbance of existing sediment and the removal seawards of land debris and coastal and shallow‐water marine sediments. Tsunami action builds up sequences of peculiar sediments in shallow water; it at least assists in the formation and maintenance of submarine canyons and, through them, produces turbidity currents of a particularly powerful kind. Tsunami action may explain many puzzling sedimentary phenomena, for example, sudden and drastic changes in near‐shore bathymetry; the formation of chaotic sediments such as some paraconglomerates and edgewise conglomerates. It offers solutions to problems arising from the study of turbiditic sequences, both modern and ancient.     

X-ray transient sources

The galactic distribution and physical nature of X-ray transient sources is investigated. Two types of transients are considered. The observational data on 41 X-ray transient sources are given, and the average parameters of hard and soft X-ray transients are estimated.     

A mass ratio limit for primordial black holes

We augment our scenario for the formation of astronomical objects from macroscopic superstrings by the assumption that the central matter keeps its identity in the fragmentation. From the condition that the angular momentum per mass squared of this matter should be less than the Kerr limit G/c, we obtain upper limits for the ratio of the mass of central black holes M(BH) to the mass M of the host object. This limit is M(BH)/M ≈ 0.001, and, expressed in observed quantities, approximately M(BH)/M ≈ σ²/(v · c) where σ is the r.m.s. velocity, v the rotational velocity and c the velocity of light. The valuesM(BH) agree with the observed behaviour both in order of magnitude and in the variation with velocity dispersion. (© 2003 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

The Effect of Geomagnetic and Solar Activity on the Distribution of Controlling Pressure Formations in the Northern Hemisphere in Winter

The distribution of controlling pressure formations, occurring in the Northern Hemisphere during the winters (January and February) of the years 1952 – 1996, has been analysed. It was found that the deepening of the Icelandic and Aleutian pressure lows is connected not only with a particular QBO phase and level of geomagnetic activity (Bochníek et al., 1999) but also with a particular level of solar activity.     

Observation of Precipitating Systems over Complex Orography with Meteorological Doppler Radars: A Feasibility Study

Summary  This paper concerns the use of airborne or ground-based Doppler radars to observe precipitating systems over complex orography. As nearly all of the previous experiments involving Doppler radars were conducted over flat surfaces over the continents or the oceans, new techniques are needed firstly to separate ground clutter from meteorological signal and, in the case of airborne Doppler observations, to deduce navigational errors. Secondly, it is necessary to take the atmospheric circulation induced by orography into account in the three-dimensional wind field analysis. Variational techniques are presented to solve these problems. The proposed methods are tested with simulated ground-based and airborne Doppler radar observations for analytic flows over analytic terrains and for numerically simulated wind and reflectivity fields for the Brig event (22 September 1993) of heavy precipitation over the southern flank of the Alps (Cosma and Richard, 1998), and with actual airborne Doppler data relative to weak snow showers over the Rocky Mountains on 12 March 1995. Received March 22, 1999/Revised June 1, 1999