Recent developments in technological forecasting

Technological forecasting means the prediction of characteristics or use of technology. The methods used by technological forecasters are in principle no different from those used by forecasters in other application areas. However, the unique problems of the field require that the methods be adapted to those problems. This paper discusses recent developments involving refinements in the methods which have been in use for the past several decades. It also describes some important recent work on estimating upper limits to the progress of technologies, and on quantitative measures of multi-attribute technologies. Finally, it discusses several issues common to all forecasting application areas, as they are dealt with in technological forecasting. These issues include validation, disasters of forecasting, determinism in forecasting, and some examples of forecasts with practical applications.     

Potential for Solute Retardation on Monitoring Well Sand Packs and Its Effect on Purging Requirements for Ground Water Sampling

Monitoring well sand packs are theoretically capable of retarding metal ions and organic contaminants. If this retardation does indeed occur it may have a significant effect on the purging requirements of newly installed monitoring wells. Calculations based on mass balance and retardation concepts demonstrate that if common guidelines for well purging are followed, contaminants may not be detected or may be detected in lower concentrations than are actually present in the ground water. This problem is greatest in relatively shallow wells installed in low to moderate permeability materials. In most cases, the effect of solute retardation in the sand pack can be avoided simply by additional purging prior to the first sampling of the monitoring well. Common purging guidelines can then be applied to subsequent samplings. The methodology outlined in this paper can be used to calculate the purging requirements of existing monitoring wells or it may be applied to alternative monitoring well designs to test which will require the smallest volume of purged water.     

Paleomagnetic evidence for fossil biogenic magnetite in western Crete

Previous paleomagnetic research has shown that the concentration of fine-grained magnetite preserved in Miocene marine clays of western Crete drops during two successive geomagnetic transitions, although the mechanism responsible for this effect was not known. Magnetite precipitation by magnetotactic bacteria offers a straightforward explanation for this decrease. Reduced field strengths during a reversal will strain the competitive advantage of having intracellular magnetite and will force bacteria to precipitate correspondingly more magnetite if they are to maintain the same alignment in the geomagnetic field. Their ability to do this is limited by several magnetophysical constraints which should act to reduce the numbers of magnetite-precipitating cells, particularly in fields of less than about 12% of the present level. This would lead to a decrease in the supply of bacterial magnitude to the sediments. Recovery of intact magnetotactic bacterial fossils may lead to a new method for estimating paleointensities from sedimentary rocks.     

Transport of water in frozen soil: I: Experimental determination of soil-water diffusivity under isothermal conditions

A new experimental method for measuring the soil-water diffusivity of frozen soil under isothermal conditions is introduced. The theoretical justification of the method is presented and the feasibility of the method is demonstrated by experiments conducted using marine deposited clay. The measured values of the soil-water diffusivity are found comparable to reported experimental data.