Modelling shallow landslide susceptibility: a new approach in logistic regression by using favourability assessment

A new method for estimating shallow landslide susceptibility by combining Geographical Information System (GIS), nonparametric kernel density estimation and logistic regression is described. Specifically, a logistic regression is applied to predict the spatial distribution by estimating the probability of occurrence of a landslide in a 16 km² area. For this purpose, a GIS is employed to gather the relevant sample information connected with the landslides. The advantages of pre-processing the explanatory variables by nonparametric density estimation (for continuous variables) and a reclassification (for categorical/discrete ones) are discussed. The pre-processing leads to new explanatory variables, namely, some functions which measure the favourability of occurrence of a landslide. The resulting model correctly classifies 98.55% of the inventaried landslides and 89.80% of the landscape surface without instabilities. New data about recent shallow landslides were collected in order to validate the model, and 92.20% of them are also correctly classified. The results support the methodology and the extrapolation of the model to the whole study area (278 km²) in order to obtain susceptibility maps.     

History of the Middle Berriasian transgression on the Jura carbonate platform: revealed by high-resolution sequence- and cyclostratigraphy (Switzerland and France)

The Middle Berriasian deposits of the Jura platform in Switzerland and France have already been well studied in terms of high-resolution sequence stratigraphy and different orders of depositional sequences (large-, medium-, and small-scale) have been defined. The hierarchical stacking pattern of the sequences and the time span represented by the investigated interval imply that sea-level fluctuations in the Milankovitch frequency band as well as differential subsidence caused the observed changes of accommodation on the Jura platform. The present study focuses on three small-scale sequences within the transgressive interval of a large-scale sequence. The initial flooding of the platform is marked by a facies change from supra- and intertidal (Goldberg Formation) to shallow-marine subtidal deposits (Pierre Chatel Formation). Detailed logging and facies analysis of 11 sections allow recognizing small environmental changes that define elementary sequences within the well-established small-scale sequences and distinguishing between autocyclic and allocyclic processes in sequence formation. It is concluded that the small-scale sequences correspond to the 100-ka orbital eccentricity cycle, while allocyclic elementary sequences formed in tune with the 20-ka precession cycle. Based on the correlation of elementary and small-scale sequences it can be shown that the Jura platform has been flooded stepwise by repeated transgressive pulses. Differential subsidence and pre-existing platform morphology further controlled sediment accumulation and distribution during the transgression. The combination of high-resolution sequence stratigraphy and cyclostratigraphy then enables the reconstruction of hypothetical palaeogeographic maps in time increments of a few ten thousand years.     

Procedure for the selection of runout model parameters from landslide back-analyses: application to the Metropolitan Area of San Salvador, El Salvador

The existing procedures for the selection of runout model parameters from back-analyses do not allow integrating different types of runout criteria and generally lack a systematic approach. A new method based on receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses and aimed at overcoming these limitations is herein proposed. The method consists of estimating discrete classifiers for every runout simulation associated with a set of model parameters. The set of parameters that yields the best prediction is selected using ROC metrics and space. The procedure is illustrated with the back-analyses of a rainfall-triggered debris flow that killed 300–500 people in the Metropolitan Area of San Salvador in 1982. The selected model parameters are used to estimate forward predictions for scenarios that correspond to different return periods. The proposed procedure may be useful in the assessment of areas potentially affected by landslides. In turn, this information can be used in the production or updating of land use plans and zonations, similar to that currently being carried out by the Office for Urban Planning of the Metropolitan Area of San Salvador in El Salvador.     

Construction of deep tunnel shafts in Mexico city soft clays by the flotation method

The drainage system of Mexico City, one of the largest metropolitan areas in the world, is formed by a large network of interceptors and collectors leading to the main outlet: a 49.3-km-long tunnel with a 6.5 m diameter. To build the access shafts to the tunnels of the system and the deep sumps of the pumping stations in the very soft clays of the lacustrine area of Mexico valley, a technique known as “flotation method” has been commonly used since 1969. The paper presents the main construction steps followed and some aspects of the analysis and design of shafts constructed by this technique. The experience gained obtained after more than 30 shafts have been constructed by this method, and the actual trends in its application are also discussed.     

Multiple generation magmatic and hydrothermal processes in a Martian subvolcanic environment based on the analysis of Yamato-000593 nakhlite meteorite

We studied the occurrence of secondary minerals and inferred their formation in the Yamato-000593 Martian meteorite using multiple technological approaches such as electron probe micro analysis, optical microscope, Raman spectroscopy, scanning electron microscopy, as well as Fourier transform-infrared microscopy and spectroscopy. Two separate hydrothermal alteration events and their sequence of formation (based on superpositional relationship) can be identified: an elevated temperature phase producing high-temperature sulfidic hydrothermal alteration and a lower temperature hydrothermal alteration phase by iron-rich fluids. This meteorite shows signatures more compatible with magmatic effects, rather than impact-induced hydrothermal alteration, as has been proposed earlier. The sulfidic alteration probably formed by magmatic hydrothermal fluids, whereas iron-rich hydrothermal fluid circulation after a possible early impact event has also been proposed, when the fluids cooled down to 50 °C. Most of the secondary minerals formed at alkaline-neutral conditions, and the few observed signatures (clay–silica-bearing veins, siderite-iron-oxide veins) of briny conditions are probably from local spatial effects in larger cavities. The ferrous minerals (hematite and siderite) along the fractures could be crystallized from Fe-HCO₃-bearing fluids. Alternatively, the primary magmatic minerals could have been oxidized easily (Fe-rich olivines, magnetite) during the cooling to iron oxides (hematite, goethite). The results suggest the possible existence of at least ephemerally habitable environments on Mars, mainly at volcanically heated locations. Following published geochemical models, the carbonates formed within acidic-circumneutral condition, which was followed by formation of phyllosilicates in alkaline condition.     

Micro-XCT chondrule classification for subsequent isotope analysis

Chondrules are microscopic, recrystallized melt droplets found in chondritic meteorites. High-resolution isotope analyses of minor elements require large enough element quantities which are obtained by dissolving entire chondrules. This work emphasizes the importance of X-ray computed tomography (XCT) to detect features that can significantly affect the bulk chondrule isotope composition. It thereby expands on other works by looking into chondrules from a wide range of chondrites including CR, CV, CB, CM, L, and EL samples before turning toward complex and time-consuming chemical processing. The features considered are metal and igneous rims, compound chondrules, matrix remnants, and metal contents. In addition to the identification of these features, computed tomography prevents the inclusion of non-chondrule samples (pure matrix or metal) as well as samples where two different chondrule fragments with potentially different isotope compositions are held together by matrix. Matrix surrounding chondrules is also easily detected and the affected chondrules can be omitted or reprocessed. The results strongly encourage to perform XCT before dissolution of chondrules for isotope analysis as a non-invasive method.     

Mushroom production as an alternative for rural development in a forested mountainous area

Wild mushrooms are recognized as important non-wood forest products in mountainous ecosystems, but their real potential for generating rural economies has not been fully evaluated due to the difficulties in obtaining reliable productivity data, minimizing their true potential as contributor to rural economies. Mushroom yield models based on large data series from Pinus forest ecosystems in the region of Catalonia(Spain), combined with data from the Spanish National Forest Inventory allow us to estimate the potential mushroom productivity by forest ecosystems. The results of 24,500 tons/yr of mushrooms of which 16,300 tons are classified as edible and 7,900 tons are commonly marketed demonstrate the importance of mushroom productions in Catalonian pine forests, mostly located in mountainous areas where the development of agricultural activities is limited. Economic mushroom value is estimated at 48 million € for the edible mushroom and 32 million € for those corresponding to marketable yields, confirming the potential of this non-wood forest product. These production results and corresponding economic values provide a basis for the incorporation of wild mushrooms as significant non-wood forest products in the development of forest policies in mountainous areas.     

Making a Mark: a computational and visual analysis of one researcher’s intellectual domain

Dr. David Mark is widely regarded as a path-breaking researcher in geographic information science. What are the structural and temporal characteristics of his intellectual contributions, as seen through the eyes of the broader academic community? Aiming to answer that question, this article presents a scientometric analysis of publications that have been cited alongside David Mark’s papers. In deliberate contrast to the widespread focus on using citation data to condense scientific impact into a handful of indicators, the methodological contribution of this study lies in its mix of computational and visualization approaches. In the search for latent domain structures, state-of-the-art practices in information science, bibliometrics, and network visualization are combined and extended. An initial network of 50,000+ publications and 4,000,000+ document co-citations undergoes a series of transformations reducing it to 9000 publications that are then clustered in a two-stage process, leading to 678 communities whose co-citation linkages are used to delineate 19 super-communities. To enable replication of this approach for other studies, much focus in this article is on detailed discussion of that workflow as well as on highlighting the reasoning behind the choices made among data sources and analytical methods. The topical evolution of David Mark’s domain of influence is explored in some detail, based on tabular and graphic representations of extracted community structures. Results confirm not only the enormous overall breadth of his influence but also how lasting and recurrent it has been in some areas.     

The economics of boldness: equity,action, and hope

Equity is usually interpreted in terms of the concept of justice, such that an equitable share of the atmospheric space is understood in terms of past emissions. This emphasizes the collective nature of sharing the burden of mitigation and the duty to act for those who have emitted the most. An alternative is considered: the aggregate costs and benefits to all Parties that could result from both increasing the level of collective ambition and implementing a climate regime that supports bold actions across all Parties. The regional impacts and carbon flow costs across differentiated scenarios are assessed and it is argued that the majority of developing-country Parties would be better off if a high ambition outcome to which all contributed, but some more than others. Moreover, those with middle or low emissions would have proportionally more to gain (or lose) relative to the level of ambition compared to those that have had higher emissions. The climate regime should be built on the principle of common but differentiated responsibility and respective capabilities (CBDR&RC), in which all act early even if some do much more; one that accounts for justice but does not forget hope.

Policy relevance

Differing interpretations of equity and the principles of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are discussed, with a focus on how these can enhance or hinder collective action. Whilst the climate change negotiations are usually taken as games in which one party gains and another loses, and interactions are dogged by continuous conflict, it is explored instead how negotiation responses can be framed in terms of cooperation. This would emphasize the gains that could be achieved by common but differentiated collective action, which could result in a collective avoidance of impacts. The possibilities that this shift of perspective could bring are explored by comparing costs under global cooperation (or lack of it). It is found that cooperation reduces the total costs for these regions. Thus, thinking in terms of cooperation focuses the options for negotiation on the means and interpretations of the UNFCCC principles that spur action and avoid climate impacts through collective action.     

Effects of substratum type on fish assemblages in shallow areas of a tropical estuary

While there is already a comprehensive understanding of the effects of environmental variables, such as dissolved oxygen, temperature and salinity, on the structure, biomass and metabolism of aquatic biota in estuarine habitats, the effect of sedimentation, a harmful underlying factor, remains unclear. The aim of this study was to assess the differences in fish assemblages along the freshwater to salt water gradient of a large tropical estuary, and to evaluate the effects on them of habitat disturbance associated with shallow water sedimentation in the intertidal areas. Fish and environmental variables were recorded in the upper, middle and lower salinity zones of the estuary at ebb tide in both the dry and wet seasons. Sediment samples associated with different levels of habitat disturbance were analysed using granulometry, and their organic content and dissolved oxygen levels were quantified. Water temperature, salinity, pH and dissolved oxygen levels were also measured. Habitat disturbance was found to be correlated with the density, biomass and richness of fish assemblages. A total of 77 species were recorded, forming two distinct fish assemblages, with the Eleotridae family dominating in the upper zone, and Gerreidae, Gobiidae and Tetraodontidae the most common in the middle and lower estuary. Changes in the structure of fish assemblages, including reductions in density, biomass and richness, were associated with disturbance to natural features, where muddy sediment was replaced by sandy sediment and the quantity of organic matter fell. Atherinella brasiliensis was the species which showed a preference for the disturbed areas in the middle and lower zones, while Dormitator maculatus showed a preference for them in the upper estuary. They may be taken as indicators of habitat disturbance due to shallow sedimentation.