On the use of IPCC-class models to assess the impact of climate on Living Marine Resources

The study of climate impacts on Living Marine Resources (LMRs) has increased rapidly in recent years with the availability of climate model simulations contributed to the assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Collaboration between climate and LMR scientists and shared understanding of critical challenges for such applications are essential for developing robust projections of climate impacts on LMRs. This paper assesses present approaches for generating projections of climate impacts on LMRs using IPCC-class climate models, recommends practices that should be followed for these applications, and identifies priority developments that could improve current projections. Understanding of the climate system and its representation within climate models has progressed to a point where many climate model outputs can now be used effectively to make LMR projections. However, uncertainty in climate model projections (particularly biases and inter-model spread at regional to local scales), coarse climate model resolution, and the uncertainty and potential complexity of the mechanisms underlying the response of LMRs to climate limit the robustness and precision of LMR projections. A variety of techniques including the analysis of multi-model ensembles, bias corrections, and statistical and dynamical downscaling can ameliorate some limitations, though the assumptions underlying these approaches and the sensitivity of results to their application must be assessed for each application. Developments in LMR science that could improve current projections of climate impacts on LMRs include improved understanding of the multi-scale mechanisms that link climate and LMRs and better representations of these mechanisms within more holistic LMR models. These developments require a strong baseline of field and laboratory observations including long time series and measurements over the broad range of spatial and temporal scales over which LMRs and climate interact. Priority developments for IPCC-class climate models include improved model accuracy (particularly at regional and local scales), inter-annual to decadal-scale predictions, and the continued development of earth system models capable of simulating the evolution of both the physical climate system and biosphere. Efforts to address these issues should occur in parallel and be informed by the continued application of existing climate and LMR models.     

Intra-plant differences in seaweed nutritional quality and chemical defenses: Importance for the feeding behavior of the intertidal amphipod Orchestoidea tuberculata

As a result of their morphological complexity, large macroalgae show intra-thallus variations in their nutritional composition and secondary metabolite content, which influences the trophic ecology of herbivorous invertebrates, and ultimately their fitness. In this study, we evaluated for the first time the variability in nutritional quality (protein content, carbohydrates, lipids, and total organic matter), secondary metabolites (phlorotannins), and structure (shape and toughness) between blades and stipes of the macroalgae Durvillaea Antarctica. Specifically, we looked at their effect on feeding preference, rate of consumption, absorption efficiency, and growth rate of the amphipod Orchestoidea tuberculata, one of the most abundant organisms on Chilean sandy beaches. Proteins, carbohydrates, total organic matter and phlorotannin contents were significantly higher in blades than in stipes. Preference experiments revealed that the amphipods preferred blades when fresh pieces of blades and stipes were offered at the same time. Similar results were found when artificial food (in which structures of both parts of the alga were standardized) was offered, suggesting that shape and toughness of the two different parts of the alga did not influence preference patterns of O. tuberculata. Absorption efficiency of O. tuberculata was higher on blades compared to stipes. When the amphipods were kept with each of the algal parts separately (i.e. no choice), they consumed a significantly higher amount of stipe, which suggests that O. tuberculata used food quantity to compensate for the lower nutritional quality of stipes. The higher nutritional values of blades compared to stipes appears to explain observed preference patterns by O. tuberculata. Phlorotannin content did not appear to inhibit blade consumption, suggesting that the nutritional quality of the food could be more important than chemical defense in determining food choice in O. tuberculata. Growth did not differ between the amphipods maintained with either blades or stipes (i.e. no choice), which is consistent with the hypothesis of compensatory feeding. To conclude, O. tuberculata can actively select specific parts of an alga and this selection appears to be based on nutritional quality. The capacity for using different feeding strategies allow O. tuberculata, in some cases, to successfully exploit food types with different nutritional qualities.     

Delivery and deposition of organic matter in surface sediments of Lagoa do Caçó (Brazil)

Elemental and isotopic compositions of organic matter in surficial sediments from five transects across Lagoa do Caçó (Brazil) were analyzed to identify the depth-related processes that affect the production and deposition of sedimentary organic matter in this shallow tropical lake. Each of four transverse transects began at a margin dominated by aquatic macrophytes (Eleocharis), crossed the central deep part of the lake, and terminated in the opposite, macrophyte-dominated margin. In each transect, TOC concentrations, C/N ratios, and δ¹³C values decreased between 0 and 4 m, whereas δ¹⁵N values increased. The variables remained stable in sediment from 4 m water depth to the center of the lake at 10 m. The depth-related patterns reflect differences in both the delivery and the deposition of organic matter in the lake. Organic matter is produced in abundance in the marginal area by emersed and submerged macrophyte vegetation that diminishes with depth and disappears at 4 meters. After the disappearance of macrophytes, organic matter is produced at low rates principally by open-lake phytoplankton. Drawdown of dissolved oxygen is high in the lake margins, but it is low in the oligotrophic open waters of the lake. Preservation of organic matter is consequently better in sediments of the lake margins than in deep waters. The depth-related pattern of organic matter delivery and deposition in the sediments of Lagoa do Caçó, in which water levels are sensitive to groundwater fluctuations, shows that the elemental and isotopic compositions of sediment organic matter can provide a record of changes in the paleohydrology of this and other similar shallow lake systems.     

Extreme temperature scenarios in Mexicali,Mexico under climate change conditions

Extreme weather events can have severe consequences for the population and the environment. Therefore, in this study a temporal trend of annual temperatures was built with a time series from 1950 to 2010 for Mexicali, Mexico, and estimates of 5- to 100-year return periods are provided by modeling of summer maximum and winter minimum temperatures. A non-parametric Kendall’s tau test and the Sen’s slope estimator were used to compute trends. The generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution was applied to the approximation of block maxima and the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) to values over a predetermined threshold. Due to the non-stationary characteristic of the series of temperature values, the temporal trend was included as a covariable in the location parameter and substantial improvements were observed, particularly with the extreme minimum temperature, compared to that obtained with the GEV with no covariable and with the GPD. A positive and significant statistically trend in both summer maximum temperature and winter minimum temperature was found. By the end of 21st century the extreme maximum temperature could be 2 to 3 °C higher than current, and the winter could be less severe, as the probabilistic model suggests increases of 7 to 9 °C in the extreme minimum temperature with respect to the base period. The foreseeable consequences on Mexicali city are discussed.     

Cognitive and affective responses of Florida tourists after exposure to hurricane warning messages

Tourists are particularly vulnerable to natural disasters such as hurricanes since they might be less informed and prepared than residents of disaster-prone areas. Thus, understanding how the traits of a tropical cyclone as well as specific characteristics of tourists influence affective and cognitive responses to a hurricane warning message is a critical component in disaster planning. Using scenarios that presented tropical cyclones with different relevant characteristics (such as category at landfall), tourists’ knowledge, experience with hurricanes, trip traits, and the location of the survey (coastal or inland), this study contributes to the literature on sociological issues related to natural disasters. The findings suggest that risk perceptions and fear are influenced differently by the traits of the hurricanes and tourists’ knowledge and experience. Risk is strongly influenced by the projected category of the hurricane at landfall, while fear is not as sensitive to this extremely relevant trait of cyclones. The results also suggest that the influence of risk and fear on evacuation likelihood is strong and positive. This study shows the value of studying cognitive and affective responses to uncertain events.     

Web-GIS tool for the management of rural land markets

Land abandonment and stagnation of rural markets in the last few years have become one of the main concerns of rural administrations. The use of Web and GIS (Geographic Information System) technologies can help to mitigate the effects of these problems. This paper pro-poses a novel Web-GIS tool with spatial capabilities for the dynamization of rural land markets by encouraging the transfer of land from owners to farmers through the leasing of plots. The system, based on open source software, offers information about the properties, their environment and their owners. It uses standards for handling the geographic information and for communicating with external data sources. This system was used as the basis for the development of SITEGAL, the tool for the management of the Land Bank of Galicia (www.bantegal.com/sitegal). SITEGAL has been operational since 2007 obtaining benefits for both administration and users (farmers and land owners), and promoting the e-Government.     

Environmental conditions for gravelly and pebbly dunes and sorted bedforms on a moderate-energy inner shelf (Marettimo Island,Italy, western Mediterranean)

Side scan sonar records, sediment textural characteristics, and in-situ field observations were used to study gravelly and pebbly dunes and sorted bedforms on the inner shelf of Marettimo Island, along the northwestern Sicilian shelf. The dunes are composed of coarse sands, gravels and pebbles (D50: 2–16 mm), displaying a symmetrical shape with a wavelength in the range of 1–2.5 m and a height of 0.15–0.30 m. The bedforms are distributed in a patchy pattern in a depth range of 10–50 m, and are described for the first time on a Mediterranean inner shelf. Sorted bedforms are linear morphological features developed almost perpendicular to the coast in the eastern sector of the island between 15 and 50 m water depth. Bottom shear stresses required for sediment entrainment and the generation of the shallower dunes can be reached during strong storms (Hs=5–6 m; Tp=9–11 s), which are not common in the Mediterranean Sea. However, wave storm events recorded in the study area during the last 17 years are not able to generate the coarsest and deeper dunes, suggesting that the stirring mechanism for dune formation is associated with severe storms that have a recurrence interval of more than 17 years. The long-term stability of the coarse bedforms is supported by the permanence of sorted bedforms without significant morphological changes for long periods (>13 years). Therefore, it is shown that processes forming coarse bedforms can occur in tideless and moderate-energy settings like those of the Mediterranean continental shelves, although the morphological features are probably less dynamic and remain unaltered for longer periods than on higher-energy shelves.     

Classification of seismic signals at Villarrica volcano (Chile) using neural networks and genetic algorithms

Each volcano has its own unique seismic activity. The aim of this work is to construct a system able to classify seismic signals for the Villarrica volcano, one of the most active volcanoes in South America. Since seismic signals are the result of particular processes inside the volcano's structure, they can be used to forecast volcanic activity. This paper describes the different kinds of seismic signals recorded at the Villarrica volcano and their significance. Three kind of signals were considered as most representative of this volcano's activity: the long-period, the tremor, and the energetic tremor signals. A classifier is implemented to read the seismic registers at 30-second intervals, extract the most relevant features of each interval, and classify them into one of the three kinds of signals considered as most representative of this particular volcano. To do so, 1033 different kinds of 30-s signals were extracted and classified by a human expert. A feature extraction process was applied to obtain the main characteristics of each of them. This process was developed using criteria which have been shown by others to effectively classify seismic signals, based on the experience of a human expert. The classifier was implemented with a Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) artificial neural network whose architecture and training process were optimized by means of a genetic algorithm. This technique searched for the most adequate MLP configuration to improve the classification performance, optimizing the number of hidden neurons, the transfer functions of the neurons, and the training algorithm. The optimization process also performed a feature selection to reduce the number of signal features, optimizing the number of network inputs. The results show that the optimized classifier reaches more than 93% exactitude. identifying the signals of each kind. The amplitude of the signals is the most important feature for its classification, followed by its frequency content. The described methodology can be used to classify more seismic signals to improve the study of the activity of this volcano or to extend the study to other active volcanoes of the region.     

Interplay of orbital forcing and tectonic pulses in the Cambrian Iberian platform, NE Spain

The stratigraphy of carbonate/shale couplets, cycles and cycle-stacking patterns in a Cambrian shallow water platform (Iberian Chains, NE Spain) are related to sea-level changes driven by orbital forcing and by tectonic pulses. The interplay of both effects can be discriminated in the Iberian fault-controlled platform, in which the tectonic activity can be analysed by accurate and detailed biostratigraphic correlations based on trilobite zonation. The stratigraphic hierarchy of rhythmically interbedded limestones and shales, in two coeval but structurally separated geodynamic settings, yields cycle ratios of 1.44 :1. This ratio is supported by time thickness and spectral analysis, which is based on a graphic method of analysis: the Map of Grey Lines. The cycle ratio seems to be evidence for orbital forcing by obliquity and precession cycles predicted for early Paleozoic time. Carbonate/shale couplets, the smallest rhythmic units recognisable in the field, represent short-term, periodic fluctuations in supply of terrigenous sediments and carbonate productivity of uncertain origin, which could be associated with one of several harmonics of the former orbital cycles. The pulsating tectonic activity was approximated by using a quantitative analysis of tectonically induced subsidence (Shaw method). Recurrence frequencies of tectonic pulses were estimated and dated by biostratigraphy. As a result, tectonic disturbances in the Cambrian Iberian platform show an episodic periodicity comparable to that of orbital eccentricity cycles, which could mask their recognition. Received: 15 November 1999 / Accepted: 9 February 2000     

Post-Last Glacial Maximum evolution of a “fjord-type” lake based on high-resolution seismic data: the Lago Roca/Acigami (southern Tierra del Fuego,Argentina/Chile)

Lago Roca/Acigami is a “fjord-type” lake located in the southernmost part of South America, in the proximity of the Beagle Channel. A high-resolution seismic survey was carried out to analyse the seismic stratigraphy of the lake and to shed some light on the post-Last Glacial Maximum history of the area. Six seismic units were recognised, and their nature and depositional context were interpreted using seismic stratigraphy and acoustic facies analysis. A buried large ridge was identified within the glacial unit (SU1), interpreted as a frontal moraine that indicates a stabilisation phase. After retreat of the glacier from the basin, the trough was flooded by meltwater and a lake developed (SU2). The seismic facies, from bottom to top, depict a transition from ice-contact (SU2; SU3) to ice-distal proglacial conditions (SU4). A thick draping unit (SU5) marks a marine transgressive event and the instauration of a fjord environment in the basin. The marine transgression was a rapid event preceded by a fall in the lake level that caused an erosional unconformity. During the fjord phase the sedimentation remained controlled by meltwater discharge. Sea level fall, and subsequent disconnection from the Beagle Channel was accompanied by a progradation of the glaciofluvial deltaic sediments and the occurrence of several mass-wasting deposits (SU6). © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.