Climate variability and predictability associated with the Indo-Pacific Oceanic Channel Dynamics in the CCSM4 Coupled System Model

An experiment using the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4), a participant of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase-5 (CMIP5), is analyzed to assess the skills of this model in simulating and predicting the climate variabilities associated with the oceanic channel dynamics across the Indo-Pacific Oceans. The results of these analyses suggest that the model is able to reproduce the observed lag correlation between the oceanic anomalies in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean and those in the cold tongue in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean at a time lag of 1 year. This success may be largely attributed to the successful simulation of the interannual variations of the Indonesian Throughflow, which carries the anomalies of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) into the western equatorial Pacific Ocean to produce subsurface temperature anomalies, which in turn propagate to the eastern equatorial Pacific to generate ENSO. This connection is termed the “oceanic channel dynamics” and is shown to be consistent with the observational analyses. However, the model simulates a weaker connection between the IOD and the interannual variability of the Indonesian Throughflow transport than found in the observations. In addition, the model overestimates the westerly wind anomalies in the western-central equatorial Pacific in the year following the IOD, which forces unrealistic upwelling Rossby waves in the western equatorial Pacific and downwelling Kelvin waves in the east. This assessment suggests that the CCSM4 coupled climate system has underestimated the oceanic channel dynamics and overestimated the atmospheric bridge processes.     

The study of instabilities in the solar wind and magnetosheath and their interaction with the Earth's magnetosphere

The thesis concentrates on an analysis of the experimental data as well as numerical simulation of propagation of fast forward (FF) shocks in the solar wind and their evolution through the magnetosheath to the inner magnetosphere. The thesis was defended at the Charles University, Prague, Faculty of Mathematics and Physics, Department of Plasma and Surface Science (V Holesovickach 2, 180 00 Prague 8, Czech Republic) on September 30, 2008 under supervision of Doc. Lubomír P?ech. The thesis is written in English and a resume can be found at http://physics.mff.cuni.cz/kfpp/phd/andreeova.pdf.     

Summer temperature variability across four urban neighborhoods in Knoxville,Tennessee, USA

The urban heat island (UHI) is a well-documented effect of urbanization on local climate, identified by higher temperatures compared to surrounding areas, especially at night and during the warm season. The details of a UHI are city-specific, and microclimates may even exist within a given city. Thus, investigating the spatiotemporal variability of a city’s UHI is an ongoing and critical research need. We deploy ten weather stations across Knoxville, Tennessee, to analyze the city’s UHI and its differential impacts across urban neighborhoods: two each in four neighborhoods, one in more dense tree cover and one in less dense tree cover, and one each in downtown Knoxville and Ijams Nature Center that serve as control locations. Three months of temperature data (beginning 2 July 2014) are analyzed using paired-sample t tests and a three-way analysis of variance. Major findings include the following: (1) Within a given neighborhood, tree cover helps negate daytime heat (resulting in up to 1.19 ^°C lower maximum temperature), but does not have as large of an influence on minimum temperature; (2) largest temperature differences between neighborhoods occur during the day (0.38–1.16 ^°C difference), but larger differences between neighborhoods and the downtown control occur at night (1.04–1.88 ^°C difference); (3) presiding weather (i.e., air mass type) has a significant, consistent impact on the temperature in a given city, and lacks the differential impacts found at a larger-scale in previous studies; (4) distance from city center does not impact temperature as much as land use factors. This is a preliminary step towards informing local planning with a scientific understanding of how mitigation strategies may help minimize the UHI and reduce the effects of extreme weather on public health and well-being.     

Wet and dry spell analysis of Global Climate Model-generated precipitation using power laws and wavelet transforms

Climate model simulations for the twenty-first century point toward changing characteristics of precipitation. This paper investigates the impact of climate change on precipitation in the Kansabati River basin in India. A downscaling method, based on Bayesian Neural Network (BNN), is applied to project precipitation generated from six Global Climate Models (GCMs) using two scenarios (A2 and B2). Wet and dry spell properties of monthly precipitation series at five meteorologic stations in the Kansabati basin are examined by plotting successive wet and dry durations (in months) against their number of occurrences on a double-logarithmic paper. Straight-line relationships on such graphs show that power laws govern the pattern of successive persistent wet and dry monthly spells. Comparison of power-law behaviors provides useful interpretation about the temporal precipitation pattern. The impact of low-frequency precipitation variability on the characteristics of wet and dry spells is also evaluated using continuous wavelet transforms. It is found that inter-annual cycles play an important role in the formation of wet and dry spells.     

1997-1998年伽师强震群震源区应力场特征

利用1997-1998年伽师强震群中强地震震源机制系统聚类及震源区应力场反演,得到以下主要结果:(1)伽师强震群中强地震主要以走滑和正断层为主,伽师震源区主压应力方向为NNE或近NS向,与相邻的柯坪块体区域构造应力场方向不一致;伽师强震群的破裂面沿NEE方向,属左旋破裂;(2)4~5级中强地震应力场反演得到最大主压应力轴为NNE向,最小主压应力轴为NWW向,中等主应力轴倾角为65°,比较直立;(3)伽师强震群震源区应力场在强震前后经历了一系列变化。最后对所得结果进行了一定的讨论。     

Noril’sk–Talnakh Cu–Ni–PGE deposits: a revised tectonic model

The Norilsk mining district is located at the northwest margin of the Tunguska basin, in the centre of the 3,000×4,000 km Siberian continental flood basalt (CFB) province. This CFB province was formed at the Permo-Triassic boundary from a superplume that ascended into the geometric centre of the Laurasian continent, which was surrounded by subducting slabs of oceanic crust. We suggest that these slabs could have reached the core–mantle boundary, and they may have controlled the geometric focus of the superplume. The resulting voluminous magma intruded and erupted in continental rifts and related extensive flood basalt events over a 2–4 Ma period. Cu–Ni–PGE sulfide mineralization is found in olivine-bearing differentiated mafic intrusions beneath the flood basalts at the northwestern margin of the Siberian craton and also in the Taimyr Peninsula, some 300 km east of a triple junction of continental rifts, now buried beneath the Mesozoic–Cenozoic sedimentary basin of western Siberia. The Norilsk-I and Talnakh-Oktyabrsky deposits occur in the Norilsk–Kharaelakh trough of the Tunguska CFB basin. The Cu–Ni–PGE-bearing mineralized intrusions are 2–3 km-wide and 20 km-long differentiated chonoliths. Previous studies suggested that parts of the magma remained in intermediate-level crustal chambers where sulfide saturation and accumulation took place before emplacement. The 5–7-km-thick Neoproterozoic to Palaeozoic country rocks, containing sedimentary Cu mineralization and evaporites, may have contributed additional metal and sulfur to this magma. Classic tectonomagmatic models for these deposits proposed that subvertical crustal faults, such as the northeast-trending Norilsk–Kharaelakh fault, were major trough-parallel conduits providing access for magmas to the final chambers. However, geological maps of the Norilsk region show that the Norilsk–Kharaelakh fault offsets the mineralization, which was deformed into folds and offset by related reverse faults, indicating compressional deformation after mineralization in the Late Triassic to Early Jurassic. In addition, most of the intrusions are sills, not dykes as should be expected if the vertical faults were major conduits. A revised tectonic model for the Norilsk region takes into account the fold structure and sill morphology of the dominant intrusions, indicating a lateral rather than vertical emplacement direction for the magma into final chambers. Taking into account the fold structure of the country rocks, the present distribution of the differentiated intrusions hosting the Norilsk-I and Talnakh–Oktyabrsky deposits may represent the remnants of a single, >60 km long, deformed and eroded palm-shaped cluster of mineralized intrusions, which are perceived as separate intrusions at the present erosional level. The original direction of sill emplacement may have been controlled by a northeast-trending paleo-rise, which we suggest is present at the southeastern border of the Norilsk–Kharaelakh trough based on analysis of the unconformity at the base of the CFB. The mineralized intrusions extend along this rise, which we interpret as a structure that formed above the extensionally tilted block in the metamorphic basement. Geophysical data indicate the presence of an intermediate magma chamber that could be linked with the Talnakh intrusion. In turn, this T-shaped flat chamber may link with the Yenisei–Khatanga rift along the northwest-trending Pyasina transform fault, which may have served as the principal magma conduit to the intermediate chamber. It then produced the differentiated mineralized intrusions that melted through the evaporites with in situ precipitation of massive, disseminated, and copper sulfide ore. The Norilsk–Kharaelakh crustal fault may not relate to mineralization and possibly formed in response to late Mesozoic spreading in the Arctic Ocean.Editorial handling: P. Lightfoot     

Updated Expressions for Determining Temperatures and Emission Measures from Goes Soft X-Ray Measurements

{We investigate the conversion of the 0.5–4 and 1–8 Å soft X-ray flux measurements made by detectors on the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) into temperature and emission measures of coronal plasma using modern spectral models and modern understanding of coronal abundances. In particular, the original analysis by Thomas, Starr and Crannell (1985) is updated to take into account the realization that coronal abundances may be quite different from photospheric abundances. An important result of this analysis is that the derived temperatures and emission measures depend strongly on the assumed abundances even at high temperatures where continuum rather than spectral lines dominates the Sun’s X-ray spectrum. This occurs because the higher coronal abundances mean that most of the continuum is due to free–bound emission processes, not free–free emission, and thus is abundance-dependent. We find significant differences between modern calculations of the temperature response of the flux measurements and the versions currently in use: for a typical flare, emission measures may be up to a factor of 4 smaller than the current software suggests. Derived temperatures are similar for both photospheric and coronal abundances for cool flares (e.g., 15 MK), but for hot flares (e.g., 35 MK) coronal abundances can lead to significantly (~25%) lower temperatures being derived.     

中国台湾地区与大陆西北地区地震活动对应性探讨

中国台湾地区和大陆西北地区都是破坏性地震活动发生较为频繁的地区.应用数理统计的方法对这两个地区100年来破坏性地震活动的对应关系进行探讨,当台湾地区发生6级以上地震活动后两年内,大陆西北也发生6级以上地震的概率为95.08%;两地7级以上地震活动时间间隔的置信度为90%的区间估计都为2～4年;通过对两地7级以上地震活动时间间隔的相关性分析,可以看出无显著性差异.     

Mean and eddy motion in the Skagerrak/northern North Sea: insight from a numerical model

Insight regarding the mean and eddy motion in the Skagerrak/northern North Sea area is gained through an analysis of model-simulated currents, hydrography, kinetic energy and relative vorticity for the 2 years 2000 and 2001. In this a -coordinate ocean model is used. Since the tidal currents are generally strong in the area, care is exercised to distinguish the mesoscale (eddy) motion from higher-frequency motion such as tides, before computing the mean and eddy kinetic energy. The model-simulated response is first compared with available knowledge of the circulation in the area, and when available, also with sea-surface temperature obtained from satellite imagery. It is concluded that the model appears to faithfully reproduce most of what is known, in particularly the upper mixed layer circulation. An analysis of the mean and eddy kinetic energy reveals that many of the mesoscale structures found in the area are recurrent. This is particularly true for the structures off the southern tip of Norway. Also in general, areas of strong mean and eddy kinetic energy are co-located. The exception is the area off the southern tip of Norway, where the eddy kinetic energy is much larger than its mean counterpart. An analysis of the relative vorticity reveals that the variability found is due to the occurrence of recurrent anticyclonic eddies. It is hypothesized that these eddies are generated due to an offshore veering of the Norwegian coastal current (NCC) as it reaches the eastern end of the Norwegian Trench plateau. Here it becomes a free jet, which is then vulnerable to either barotropic instability caused by the horizontal shear in the jet-like structure of the NCC at this point, or a baroclinic (frontal) instability. The latter may come into play when the NCC veers offshore and its relatively fresh water meets the inflowing saline water of Atlantic origin, a frontogenesis that may become strong enough for cyclogenesis to take place. Due to the depth-independent nature of the model-generated eddies, the barotropic instability is the most likely candidate. It remains to resolve the reason for the offshore veering of the NCC. The most likely candidate mechanisms are vortex squeezing or simply that the coastline curvature is large enough for the NCC to separate from the coast in a hydraulic sense.Responsible Editor: Phil Dyke     

Natural gas generation model and its response in accumulated fluids in the Yinggehai basin

The generation of natural gases is much more complicated in comparison with liquid petro-leum in that natural gases could be generated from both humic and sapropelic organic matter at different stages and that natural gases could be organic and inorganic …