The relative contributions of radiative forcing and internal climate variability to the late 20th Century winter drying of the Mediterranean region

The roles of anthropogenic climate change and internal climate variability in causing the Mediterranean region’s late 20th Century extended winter drying trend are examined using 19 coupled models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. The observed drying was influenced by the robust positive trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) from the 1960s to the 1990s. Model simulations and observations are used to assess the probable relative roles of radiative forcing, and internal variability in explaining the circulation trend that drove much of the precipitation change. Using the multi-model ensemble we assess how well the models can produce multidecadal trends of realistic magnitude, and apply signal-to-noise maximizing EOF analysis to obtain a best estimate of the models’ (mean) sea-level pressure (SLP) and precipitation responses to changes in radiative forcing. The observed SLP and Mediterranean precipitation fields are regressed onto the timeseries associated with the models’ externally forced pattern and the implied linear trends in both fields between 1960 and 1999 are calculated. It is concluded that the radiatively forced trends are a small fraction of the total observed trends. Instead it is argued that the robust trends in the observed NAO and Mediterranean rainfall during this period were largely due to multidecadal internal variability with a small contribution from the external forcing. Differences between the observed and NAO-associated precipitation trends are consistent with those expected as a response to radiative forcing. The radiatively forced trends in circulation and precipitation are expected to strengthen in the current century and this study highlights the importance of their contribution to future precipitation changes in the region.     

The network K‐function in context: examining the effects of network structure on the network K‐function

The flaws of using traditional planar point‐pattern analysis techniques with network constrained points have been thoroughly explored in the literature. Because of this, new network‐based measures have been introduced for their planar analogues, including the network based K‐function. These new measures involve the calculation of network distances between point events rather than traditional Euclidean distances. Some have suggested that the underlying structure of a network, such as whether it includes directional constraints or speed limits, may be considered when applying these methods. How different network structures might affect the results of the network spatial statistics is not well understood. This article examines the results of network K‐functions when taking into consideration network distances for three different types of networks: the original road network, topologically correct networks, and directionally constrained networks. For this aim, four scenarios using road networks from Tampa, Florida and New York City, New York were used to test how network constraints affected the network K‐function. Depending on which network is under consideration, the underlying network structure could impact the interpretation. In particular, directional constraints showed reduced clustering across the different scenarios. Caution should be used when selecting the road network, and constraints, for a network K‐function analysis.     

Diversity of murtoos and murtoo-related subglacial landforms in the Finnish area of the Fennoscandian Ice Sheet

Murtoos are recently discovered triangular-shaped subglacial landforms that form under warm-based ice and in association with significant subglacial meltwater flow. They appear in distinct fields and commonly occur in the area that was covered by the Fennoscandian Ice Sheet during glacial periods. Murtoos potentially represent a transition form from non-channelized to channelized subglacial drainage networks. In the present study, we analyse and classify murtoos and murtoo-related landforms in the Finnish area of the Fennoscandian Ice Sheet based on their characteristics and appearance in LiDAR-based digital elevations models. Combined with morphometric analyses, the observations suggest that five types of murtoos and murtoo-related landforms are common and widespread in Finland: (i) triangle-type murtoos (TTMs), (ii) chevron-type murtoos (CTMs), (iii) lobate-type murtoos (LTMs), (iv) murtoo-related ridges and escarpments (MREs), and (v) other murtoo-related polymorphous landforms (PMRs) that look like small mounds and ridges. The morphometric characteristics of the different types are described here in detail, and it is shown that they are spatially and geomorphologically related. In addition, we provide examples of murtoos other than the TTMs to demonstrate that different murtoo types and murtoo-related landforms are composed of similar sediments and architectural characteristics. The diversity of murtoo landforms and the transition between distinct murtoo types indicate rapid and complicated variations in the configuration of subglacial hydrology at different spatial and temporal scales. This study emphasizes the essential role of subglacial meltwater in the shaping of glacial landscapes and the redistribution of large volumes of sediments during the deglaciation of the Fennoscandian Ice Sheet.     

Interlobate esker architecture and related hydrogeological features derived from a combination of high-resolution reflection seismics and refraction tomography,Virttaankangas, southwest Finland

A novel high-resolution (2–4 m source and receiver spacing) reflection and refraction seismic survey was carried out for aquifer characterization and to confirm the existing depositional model of the interlobate esker of Virttaankangas, which is part of the Säkylänharju-Virttaankangas glaciofluvial esker-chain complex in southwest Finland. The interlobate esker complex hosting the managed aquifer recharge (MAR) plant is the source of the entire water supply for the city of Turku and its surrounding municipalities. An accurate delineation of the aquifer is therefore critical for long-term MAR planning and sustainable use of the esker resources. Moreover, an additional target was to resolve the poorly known stratigraphy of the 70–100-m-thick glacial deposits overlying a zone of fractured bedrock. Bedrock surface as well as fracture zones were confirmed through combined reflection seismic and refraction tomography results and further validated against existing borehole information. The high-resolution seismic data proved successful in accurately delineating the esker cores and revealing complex stratigraphy from fan lobes to kettle holes, providing valuable information for potential new pumping wells. This study illustrates the potential of geophysical methods for fast and cost-effective esker studies, in particular the digital-based landstreamer and its combination with geophone-based wireless recorders, where the cover sediments are reasonably thick.

     

Particle-acceleration time-scales in TeV blazar flares

Observations of minute-scale flares in TeV Blazars place constraints on particle-acceleration mechanisms in those objects. The implications for a variety of radiation mechanisms have been addressed in the literature; in this paper, we compare four different acceleration mechanisms: diffusive shock acceleration, second-order Fermi, shear acceleration and the converter mechanism. When the acceleration time-scales and radiative losses are taken into account, we can exclude shear acceleration and the neutron-based converted mechanism as possible acceleration processes in these systems. The first-order Fermi process and the converter mechanism working via synchrotron self-Compton (SSC) photons are still practically instantaneous, however, provided sufficient turbulence is generated on the time-scale of seconds. We propose stochastic acceleration as a promising candidate for the energy-dependent time delays in recent gamma-ray flares of Markarian 501.     

Reflected light from 3D exoplanetary atmospheres and simulation of HD 209458b

We present radiation transfer models that demonstrate that reflected light levels from 3D exoplanetary atmospheres can be more than 50 per cent lower than those predicted by models of homogeneous or smooth atmospheres. Compared to smooth models, 3D atmospheres enable starlight to penetrate to larger depths resulting in a decreased probability for the photons to scatter back out of the atmosphere before being absorbed. The increased depth of penetration of starlight in a 3D medium is a well-known result from theoretical studies of molecular clouds and planetary atmospheres. For the first time we study the reflectivity of 3D atmospheres as a possible explanation for the apparent low geometric albedos inferred for extrasolar planetary atmospheres. Our models indicate that 3D atmospheric structure may be an important contributing factor to the non-detections of scattered light from exoplanetary atmospheres. We investigate the self-shadowing radiation transfer effects of patchy cloud cover in 3D scattered light simulations of the atmosphere of HD 209458b. We find that, for a generic planet, geometric albedos can be as high as 0.45 in some limited situations, but that in general the geometric albedo is much lower. We conclude with some explanations on why extrasolar planets are likely dark at optical wavelengths.     

Stratospheric ozone depletion: a key driver of recent precipitation trends in South Eastern South America

On a hemispheric scale, it is now well established that stratospheric ozone depletion has been the principal driver of externally forced atmospheric circulation changes south of the Equator in the last decades of the 20th Century. The impact of ozone depletion has been felt over the entire hemisphere, as reflected in the poleward drift of the midlatitude jet, the southward expansion of the summertime Hadley cell and accompanying precipitation trends deep into the subtropics. On a regional scale, however, surface impacts directly attributable to ozone depletion have yet to be identified. In this paper we focus on South Eastern South America (SESA), a region that has exhibited one of the largest wetting trends during the 20th Century. We study the impact of ozone depletion on SESA precipitation using output from 6 different climate models, spanning a wide range of complexity. In all cases we contrast pairs of model integrations with and without ozone depletion, but with all other forcings identically specified. This allows for unambiguous attribution of the computed precipitation trends. All 6 climate models consistently reveal that stratospheric ozone depletion results in a significant wetting of SESA over the period 1960–1999. Taken as a whole, these model results strongly suggest that the impact of ozone depletion on SESA precipitation has been as large as, and quite possibly larger than, the one caused by increasing greenhouse gases over the same period.     

Geomorphic covariance structure of a confined mountain river reveals landform organization stage threshold

Significant growth in mountain rivers research since 1990 has promoted the concept that canyon-confined mountain rivers have complex topographic features nested from base- to flood-stages due to canyon structure and abundant large bed elements. Nesting means literally structures inside of structures. Mathematically, nesting means that multiple individual features and repeating patterns exist at different frequency, amplitude, and phasing, and can be added together to obtain the complete structure. Until now, subreach-scale landform structure, including nesting, has not been quantified sufficiently to understand morphodynamic mechanisms that control and respond to such organization. Geomorphic covariance structure analysis offers a systematic framework for evaluating nested topographic patterns. In this study, a threshold stage in mountain river inundation was hypothesized to exist. Above this stage landform structure is organized to be freely self-maintaining via flow convergence routing morphodynamics. A 13.2 km segment of the canyon-confined Yuba River, California, was studied using 2944 cross-sections. Geomorphic covariance structure analysis was carried out on a meter-resolution topographic model to test the hypothesis. River width and bed elevation had significantly less variability than previously reported for lower slope, partially confined gravel/cobble river reaches. A critical stage threshold governing flow convergence routing morphodynamics was evident in several metrics. Below this threshold, narrow/high “nozzle” and wide/low “oversized” were the dominant landforms (excluding “normal channel”), while above it wide/high “wide bar” and narrow/low “constricted pool” were dominant. Three-stage nesting of base-bankfull-flood landforms was dictated by canyon confinement, with nozzle–nozzle–nozzle nesting as the top permutation, excluding normal channel.