The Cost of Using Global Warming Potentials: Analysing the Trade off Between CO2, CH4 and N2O

The metric governing the trade-off between different greenhouse gases in the Kyoto Protocol, the Global Warming Potentials (GWPs), has received ample critique from both scientific and economic points of view. Here we use an integrated climate-economic optimization model to estimate the cost-effective trade-off between CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O when meeting a temperature stabilization target. We then estimate the increased cost from using GWPs when meeting the same temperature target. Although the efficient valuation of the gases differs significantly from their respective GWPs, the potential economic benefit of valuing them in a more correct way amounts to 3.8 percent of the overall costs of meeting the temperature stabilization target in the base case. In absolute value, this corresponds to an additional net present value cost of US$₂₀₀₀100 billion. To corroborate our findings we perform a Monte Carlo-analysis where several key parameters are randomly varied simultaneously. The result from this exercise shows that our main result is robust to a wide range of changes in the key parameter values, giving a median economic loss from using GWPs of 4.2 percent.     

Combined geological and gravimetric mapping and modelling for an improved understanding of observed high-resolution gravity variations: a case study for the Global Geodynamics Project (GGP) station Moxa, Germany

Geodynamic observatories around the globe continuously monitor signals like gravity, tilt and strain as a function of time. However, global signals are often masked by local effects, caused by the direct surroundings of the station, including the local geological setting. This link is well established for superconducting gravimeters (SG) that observe the gravity field variations at very high resolution. An enhancement of the SG time series by the application of local correction is exemplarily shown here in a very practicable procedure for the Geodynamic Observatory Moxa, Germany. We show how the combination of geological and gravimetrical mapping and modelling around Moxa results in a significant correction of the original gravity data, as can be proven by comparison with the satellite-derived gravity field. Detailed geological mapping of the observatory surroundings, including measurements of fold axes, foliations and joints, was the basis of the present study. The fold structure in the area of interest was interpreted by geometrical 3D modelling. The complete representation of different rock types in space also provides a better understanding of the local hydro-geological situation. Using a combination of the 3D geological model with the high-resolution Bouguer map of the observatory surroundings, we developed a 3D density model. This model enables the correction of small gravity effects caused by mass variations close to the SG, in particular local hydro-geological mass changes. Thus, the procedure presented here, based on a close connection of geology and gravimetry, is a powerful tool for the reduction of local gravity effects on SG recordings. It should be applicable to SG stations worldwide, where similar hydrologically driven mass changes can be assumed.