Flash flood susceptibility mapping using a novel deep learning model based on deep belief network,back propagation and genetic algorithm

Flash floods are responsible for loss of life and considerable property damage in many countries.Flood susceptibility maps contribute to flood risk reduction in areas that are prone to this hazard if appropriately used by landuse planners and emergency managers.The main objective of this study is to prepare an accurate flood susceptibility map for the Haraz watershed in Iran using a novel modeling approach(DBPGA) based on Deep Belief Network(DBN) with Back Propagation(BP) algorithm optimized by the Genetic Algorithm(GA).For this task, a database comprising ten conditioning factors and 194 flood locations was created using the One-R Attribute Evaluation(ORAE) technique.Various well-known machine learning and optimization algorithms were used as benchmarks to compare the prediction accuracy of the proposed model.Statistical metrics include sensitivity,specificity accuracy, root mean square error(RMSE), and area under the receiver operatic characteristic curve(AUC) were used to assess the validity of the proposed model.The result shows that the proposed model has the highest goodness-of-fit(AUC = 0.989) and prediction accuracy(AUC = 0.985), and based on the validation dataset it outperforms benchmark models including LR(0.885), LMT(0.934), BLR(0.936), ADT(0.976), NBT(0.974), REPTree(0.811), ANFIS-BAT(0.944), ANFIS-CA(0.921), ANFIS-IWO(0.939), ANFIS-ICA(0.947), and ANFIS-FA(0.917).We conclude that the DBPGA model is an excellent alternative tool for predicting flash flood susceptibility for other regions prone to flash floods.     

Groundwater recharge in natural dune systems and agricultural ecosystems in the Thar Desert region, Rajasthan, India

Water and nutrient availability for crop production are critical issues in (semi)arid regions. Unsaturated-zone Cl tracer data and nutrient (NO₃ and PO₄) concentrations were used to quantify recharge rates using the Cl mass balance approach and nutrient availability in the Thar Desert, Rajasthan, India. Soil cores were collected in dune/interdune settings in the arid Thar Desert (near Jaisalmer) and in rain-fed (nonirrigated) and irrigated cropland in the semiarid desert margin (near Jaipur). Recharge rates were also simulated using unsaturated zone modeling. Recharge rates in sparsely vegetated dune/interdune settings in the Jaisalmer study area are 2.7–5.6 mm/year (2–3% of precipitation, 165 mm/year). In contrast, recharge rates in rain-fed agriculture in the Jaipur study area are 61–94 mm/year (10–16% of precipitation, 600 mm/year). Minimum recharge rates under current freshwater irrigated sites are 50–120 mm/year (8–20% of precipitation). Nitrate concentrations are low at most sites. Similarity in recharge rates based on SO₄ with those based on Cl is attributed to a meteoric origin of SO₄ and generally conservative chemical behavior in these sandy soils. Modeling results increased confidence in tracer-based recharge estimates. Recharge rates under rain-fed agriculture indicate that irrigation of 20–40% of cultivated land with 300 mm/year should be sustainable.     

Geochemical processes controlling arsenic mobility in groundwater: A case study of arsenic mobilization and natural attenuation

The behavior of As in the subsurface environment was examined along a transect of groundwater monitoring wells at a Superfund site, where enhanced reductive dechlorination (ERD) is being used for the remediation of groundwater contaminated with chlorinated solvents. The transect was installed parallel to the groundwater flow direction through the treatment area. The ERD technology involves the injection of organic C (OC) to stimulate in situ microbial dechlorination processes. A secondary effect of the ERD treatment at this site, however, is the mobilization of As, as well as Fe and Mn. The concentrations of these elements are low in groundwater collected upgradient of the ERD treatment area, indicating that, in the absence of the injected OC, the As that occurs naturally in the sediment is relatively immobile. Batch experiments conducted using sediments from the site inoculated with an Fe(III)- and As(V)-reducing bacterium and amended with lactate resulted in mobilization of As, Fe and Mn, suggesting that As mobilization in the field is due to microbial processes.     

The Development of Laser Ablation ICP-MS and Calibration Strategies: Examples from the Analysis of Trace Elements in Volcanic Glass Shards and Sulfide Minerals

This contribution presents a review of the recent developments in laser ablation inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry. We describe the important developments which have occurred in the laser systems used, leading to a spatial resolution of around 20 (im, and give an overview of the major instrument developments which have affected the geological applications of laser ablation ICP-MS. We describe the calibration of laser ablation for the analysis of trace elements in two different matrices: volcanic glass shards and sulfide minerals. We show how single glass shards can be analysed using the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) glass certified reference materials for calibration and demonstrate the effect of using single spot analyses compared to rastering of the calibration sample. We show the importance of inter-shard variation and demonstrate that averaged single shard analyses produce data which compare well with bulk analyses. The calibration of the laser system for sulfide mineral analysis is discussed and two different strategies are proposed, one using spiked pressed powder pellets of sulfides and the other metal reference materials. We present conclusions and recommendations for the calibration of laser ablation ICP-MS instruments.     

Including spatial distribution in a data‐driven rainfall‐runoff model to improve reservoir inflow forecasting in Taiwan

Multi‐step ahead inflow forecasting has a critical role to play in reservoir operation and management in Taiwan during typhoons as statutory legislation requires a minimum of 3‐h warning to be issued before any reservoir releases are made. However, the complex spatial and temporal heterogeneity of typhoon rainfall, coupled with a remote and mountainous physiographic context, makes the development of real‐time rainfall‐runoff models that can accurately predict reservoir inflow several hours ahead of time challenging. Consequently, there is an urgent, operational requirement for models that can enhance reservoir inflow prediction at forecast horizons of more than 3 h. In this paper, we develop a novel semi‐distributed, data‐driven, rainfall‐runoff model for the Shihmen catchment, north Taiwan. A suite of Adaptive Network‐based Fuzzy Inference System solutions is created using various combinations of autoregressive, spatially lumped radar and point‐based rain gauge predictors. Different levels of spatially aggregated radar‐derived rainfall data are used to generate 4, 8 and 12 sub‐catchment input drivers. In general, the semi‐distributed radar rainfall models outperform their less complex counterparts in predictions of reservoir inflow at lead times greater than 3 h. Performance is found to be optimal when spatial aggregation is restricted to four sub‐catchments, with up to 30% improvements in the performance over lumped and point‐based models being evident at 5‐h lead times. The potential benefits of applying semi‐distributed, data‐driven models in reservoir inflow modelling specifically, and hydrological modelling more generally, are thus demonstrated. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling the impact of climate change on Pacific skipjack tuna population and fisheries

IPCC-type climate models have produced simulations of the oceanic environment that can be used to drive models of upper trophic levels to explore the impact of climate change on marine resources. We use the Spatial Ecosystem And Population Dynamics Model (SEAPODYM) to investigate the potential impact of Climate change under IPCC A2 scenario on Pacific skipjack tuna (Katsuwonus pelamis). IPCC-type models are still coarse in resolution and can produce significant anomalies, e.g., in water temperature. These limitations have direct and strong effects when modeling the dynamics of marine species. Therefore, parameter estimation experiments based on assimilation of historical fishing data are necessary to calibrate the model to these conditions before exploring the future scenarios. A new simulation based on corrected temperature fields of the A2 simulation from one climate model (IPSL-CM4) is presented. The corrected fields led to a new parameterization close to the one achieved with more realistic environment from an ocean reanalysis and satellite-derived primary production. Projected changes in skipjack population under simple fishing effort scenarios are presented. The skipjack catch and biomass is predicted to slightly increase in the Western Central Pacific Ocean until 2050 then the biomass stabilizes and starts to decrease after 2060 while the catch reaches a plateau. Both feeding and spawning habitat become progressively more favourable in the eastern Pacific Ocean and also extend to higher latitudes, while the western equatorial warm pool is predicted to become less favorable for skipjack spawning.     

Clitellate worms (Annelida) in lateglacial and Holocene sedimentary DNA records from the Polar Urals and northern Norway

While there are extensive macro‐ and microfossil records of a range of plants and animals from the Quaternary, earthworms and their close relatives amongst annelids are not preserved as fossils and therefore the knowledge of their past distributions is limited. This lack of fossils means that clitellate worms (Annelida) are currently underused in palaeoecological research, even though they can provide valuable information about terrestrial and aquatic environmental conditions. Their DNA might be preserved in sediments, which offers an alternative method for detection. Here we analyse lacustrine sediments from lakes in the Polar Urals, Arctic Russia, covering the period 24 000–1300 cal. a BP, and NE Norway, covering 10 700–3300 cal. a BP, using a universal mammal 16S rDNA marker. While mammals were recorded using the marker (reindeer was detected twice in the Polar Urals core at 23 000 and 14 000 cal. a BP, and four times in the Norwegian core at 11 000 cal. a BP and between 3600–3300 cal. a BP), worm extracellular DNA ‘bycatch’ was rather high. In this paper we present the first reported worm detection from ancient DNA. Our results demonstrate that both aquatic and terrestrial clitellates can be identified in late‐Quaternary lacustrine sediments, and the ecological information retrievable from this group warrants further research with a more targeted approach.     

A method of determining proximity of marginal seas to an ocean

On any area of continental shelf the foraminiferal assemblage in the bottom sediment is likely to be composed of an indigenous benthic component and an allochthonous planktonic component sedimented from the water column above. Planktonic forminiferids are essentially oceanic and it seems clear that their presence in shelf sediments is often due to transport from an oceanic source. Evidence from the Celtic Sea, northwestern Gulf of Mexico, Persian Gulf and Andaman Sea shows that with passage away from the ocean there is a reduction in the planktonic—benthic ratio in the bottom sediment, a progressive decrease in size of the planktonic tests and a reduction in diversity of the planktonic assemblage. Thus a study of the relationships between the planktonic and benthic foraminiferids in these areas gives a measure of proximity to or isolation from the ocean. It is suggested that these relationships are useful tools in the interpretation of palaeoecology and in the reconstruction of former patterns of water circulation.