Are there social limits to adaptation to climate change?

While there is a recognised need to adapt to changing climatic conditions, there is an emerging discourse of limits to such adaptation. Limits are traditionally analysed as a set of immutable thresholds in biological, economic or technological parameters. This paper contends that limits to adaptation are endogenous to society and hence contingent on ethics, knowledge, attitudes to risk and culture. We review insights from history, sociology and psychology of risk, economics and political science to develop four propositions concerning limits to adaptation. First, any limits to adaptation depend on the ultimate goals of adaptation underpinned by diverse values. Second, adaptation need not be limited by uncertainty around future foresight of risk. Third, social and individual factors limit adaptation action. Fourth, systematic undervaluation of loss of places and culture disguises real, experienced but subjective limits to adaptation. We conclude that these issues of values and ethics, risk, knowledge and culture construct societal limits to adaptation, but that these limits are mutable.     

Northward migration under a changing climate: a case study of blackgum (Nyssa sylvatica)

Species are predicted to shift their distribution ranges in response to climate change. Region-wide, empirically-based studies, however, are still limited to support these predictions. We used a model tree species, blackgum (Nyssa sylvatica), to study climate-induced range shift. Data collected from two separate sampling periods (1980s and 2007) by the USDA’s Forestry and Inventory Analysis (FIA) Program were used to investigate changes in abundance and dominance, and shifts in distribution, of blackgum in four ecoregions of the eastern United States. Our results indicated new recruitment of blackgum in the northern portion of its range, along with increases in both density and annual rates of change in importance value (IV). Conversely, declines in recruitment were found in the southern portion of blackgum’s range, along with decreases in density and IV. The center portion of blackgum’s range had mixed patterns of change (i.e., both increases and decreases) throughout. A northward range expansion was also detected by comparing blackgum’s historic range to where it was detected during our two more-recent sampling periods. Our findings suggest that blackgum is migrating north in response to climate change. Our study also suggests two broader implications about tree migration patterns in response to climate change: (1) species can respond to changing climate in relatively short time periods, at least for generalist species such as blackgum, and (2) climate-induced vegetation dynamic patterns can be detected at the regional level, but are inherently complex.     

The last glaciation of the Arctic volcanic island Jan Mayen

The volcanic island of Jan Mayen, remotely located in the Norwegian-Greenland Sea, was covered by a contiguous ice cap during the Late Weichselian. Until now, it has been disputed whether parts of the island south of the presently glaciated Mount Beerenberg area were ever glaciated. Based on extensive field mapping we demonstrate that an ice cap covered all land areas and likely also extended onto the shallow shelf areas southeast and east of the island. Chronological interpretations are based on K-Ar and ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dating of volcanic rocks, cosmogenic nuclide (³⁶Cl) surface exposure dating of bedrock and glacial erratics, and radiocarbon dating. We argue that ice growth started after 34 ka and that an initial deglaciation started some 21.5–19.5 ka in the southern and middle parts of the island. In the northern parts, closer to the present glaciers, the deglaciation might have started later, as evidenced by the establishment of vegetation 17–16 cal. ka BP. During full glaciation, the ice cap was likely thickest over the southern part of the island. This may explain a seemingly delayed deglaciation compared with the northern parts despite earlier initial deglaciation. In a broader context, the new knowledge of the Late Weichselian of the island contributes to the understanding of glaciations surrounding the North Atlantic and its climate history.     

Cooling History and Exhumation of Lower-Crustal Granulite and Upper Mantle (Malenco, Eastern Central Alps)

The Braccia gabbro of Val Malenco, Italian Alps, intruded 275My ago during Early Permian lithospheric extension. The intrusiontook place along the crust–mantle transition zone andcaused granulite metamorphism of lower-crustal and upper-mantlerocks. The magmatic crystallization of the gabbro was outlastedby ductile deformation, which is also observed in the otherrocks of the crust–mantle transition. Two stages of retrogrademetamorphism followed. Mineral parageneses in garnet–kyanitegneiss, metagabbro, and metaperidotite record a first stageof near-isobaric cooling under anhydrous conditions. The stabilizedcrust–mantle transition then persisted over a period ofabout 50 My into the Late Triassic. Exhumation of the crust–mantlecomplex began with the onset of continental rifting during EarlyJurassic. This stage of retrograde metamorphism is recordedby near-isothermal decompression and partial hydration of thegranulitic mineral assemblages. The whole crust-to-mantle complexwas then exposed in the Tethyan ocean near its Adriatic margin.The magmatic assemblage of the Braccia gabbro formed at 1–1·2GPa and 1150–1250°C. Microstructures show that thegabbroic rocks evolved from olivine gabbros through spinel togarnet granulite whereas the peridotites recrystallized withinthe spinel peridotite field and the pelitic granulites remainedin the stability field of kyanite. Such an evolution is characteristicof isobaric cooling after magmatic underplating. Granuliticmineral assemblages record cooling from 850°C to 650°Cwith decompression to 0·8 ± 0·1 GPa, anddP/dT <     

A 10Be‐based reconstruction of the last deglaciation in southern Sweden

We present 23 cosmogenic surface exposure ages from 10 localities in southern Sweden. The new ¹⁰Be ages allow a direct correlation between the east and west coasts of southern Sweden, based on the same dating technique, and provide new information about the deglaciation of the Fennoscandian Ice Sheet in the circum‐Baltic area. In western Skåne, southernmost Sweden, a single cosmogenic surface exposure sample gave an age of 16.8±1.0 ka, whereas two samples from the central part of Skåne gave ages of 17.0±0.9 and 14.1±0.8 ka. Further northeast, in southern Småland, two localities gave ages ranging from 15.2±0.8 to 16.9±0.9 ka (n=5) indicating a somewhat earlier deglaciation of the area than has previously been suggested. Our third locality, in S Småland, gave ages ranging from 10.2±0.5 to 18.4±1.6 ka (n=3), which are probably not representative of the timing of deglaciation. In central Småland one locality was dated to 14.5±0.8 ka (n=3), whereas our northernmost locality, situated in northern Småland, was dated to 13.8±0.8 ka (n=3). Samples from the island of Gotland suggest deglaciation before 13 ka ago. We combined the new ¹⁰Be ages with previously published deglaciation ages to constrain the deglaciation chronology of southern Sweden. The combined deglaciation chronology suggests a rather steady deglaciation in southern Sweden starting at c. 17.9 cal. ka BP in NW Skåne and reaching northern Småland, ～200 km further north, c. 13.8 ka ago. Overall the new deglaciation ages agree reasonably well with existing deglaciation chronologies, but suggest a somewhat earlier deglaciation in Småland.     

Impact of different energies of precipitating particles on NOx generation in the middle and upper atmosphere during geomagnetic storms

Energetic particle precipitation couples the solar wind to the Earth's atmosphere and indirectly to Earth's climate. Ionisation and dissociation increases, due to particle precipitation, create odd nitrogen (NO_x) and odd hydrogen (HO_X) in the upper atmosphere, which can affect ozone chemistry. The long-lived NO_x can be transported downwards into the stratosphere, particularly during the polar winter. Thus, the impact of NO_x is determined by both the initial ionisation production, which is a function of the particle flux and energy spectrum, as well as transport rates. In this paper, we use the Sodankylä Ion and Neurtal Chemistry (SIC) model to simulate the production of NO_x from examples of the most representative particle flux and energy spectra available today of solar proton events (SPE), auroral energy electrons, and relativistic electron precipitation (REP). Large SPEs are found to produce higher initial NO_x concentrations than long-lived REP events, which themselves produce higher initial NO_x levels than auroral electron precipitation. Only REP microburst events were found to be insignificant in terms of generating NO_x. We show that the Global Ozone Monitoring by Occultation of Stars (GOMOS) observations from the Arctic winter 2003–2004 are consistent with NO_x generation by a combination of SPE, auroral altitude precipitation, and long-lived REP events.     

Combined climatic and geological forcings on the spatio-temporal variability of piezometric levels in the chalk aquifer of Upper Normandy (France) at pluridecennal scale

The temporal variability of water-level fluctuations in the chalk aquifer of Upper Normandy, France is constrained by natural climate fluctuations and is closely linked to the regional geological patterns. The chalk plateaus are covered with 5–50 m thick semi-permeable surficial formations; the thickness of the underlying chalk aquifer varies from 50 to 300 m. The relationship among climate oscillations, piezometric levels, and geologic structure were investigated by correlation, Fourier spectral, and continuous wavelet analyses of selected piezometric time-series data. Analysis focused on two piezometers located on the uplifted side of a major fault and two piezometers on the downthrown side. After generalization to other piezometers in the region, it was deduced that, in the downthrown compartments, a substantial aquifer and surficial formations thickness would imply a strong attenuation of annual variability, while multi-year variability is clearly expressed. Conversely, in the uplifted compartments, a thin layer of surficial formations and small thickness of the chalk authorizes strong variations on the annual mode with respect to the contribution of long-term climatic oscillations (multi-year variability). The results then demonstrated—and proposed a spatial determination of—the differential influence of geological patterns on the filtering of climate-induced oscillations in piezometric variability.     

In situ oxygen,magnesium, and silicon isotopic compositions of the FUN inclusion Vigarano 1623-5

Oxygen, magnesium, and silicon isotopic abundances in Vigarano 1623-5 were studied using secondary ion mass spectrometry to investigate correlations between isotopic and petrologic properties of this unique forsterite-bearing FUN inclusion. Vigarano 1623-5 displays large, correlated mass-dependent fractionation effects, tightly linked to mineralogy within distinct petrologic units of the inclusion. The pyroxene-rich and melilite-rich interior parts of the inclusion display highly mass-fractionated isotopic compositions of oxygen, magnesium, and silicon, consistent with Rayleigh distillation during evaporation of a melt with initial oxygen composition close to a solar composition. However, the chemical composition, enriched in magnesium and silicon, suggests a precursor already fractionated by prior melt evaporation. A discontinuous igneous rim was produced by a flash-melting event followed by isotopic exchange in the rim melilite with planetary-like oxygen, mechanical fragmentation, and reassembly with an accretionary rim of heterogeneous materials. Al-rich minerals in 1623-5 show evidence for having crystallized with live ²⁶Al but at less than the “canonical” level of most CV calcium-aluminum-rich inclusions. However, well-defined ²⁶Al-²⁶Mg isochrons are not found and temporal implications are ambiguous.     

Values,climate change,and implications for adaptation: Evidence from two communities in Labrador,Canada

Local material and symbolic values have to date remained underrepresented in climate change research and policy and this gap is particularly salient in places that have been identified as at significant risk from climate change. In such places, the dominant approach to understanding the effects of climate change has been centred on vulnerability; it has highlighted the social determinants of vulnerability and the differential and uneven distribution of effects. This approach cannot, however, illuminate the diverse and nuanced meanings people attach to specific aspects of their way of life, how the changing climate might affect these, and what this implies for adaptation. To address this gap, this empirical study uses the concept of values, defined as trans-situational conceptions of the desirable that give meaning to behaviour and events, and influence perception and interpretation of situations and events. We develop a set of values from 53 qualitative interviews in two remote communities in subarctic easternmost Canada. It draws on these values to frame how effects of climate change, specifically intangible and subjective effects, are felt, and how responses to them are imagined by those affected. The article argues that values are crucial in shaping perception of climate impacts and adaptation to them. Distinct values, such as tradition, freedom, harmony, safety, and unity shape different interpretations and meaning of impacts, and lead to distinct views on how to adapt to these. Conflicting and competing values can act as barriers to adaptation. The findings imply that adaptation research and policy need to address values explicitly if efforts for planned adaptation are to be perceived as legitimate and effective by those affected by the changing climate.