Earthquake early warning and operational earthquake forecasting as real-time hazard information to mitigate seismic risk at nuclear facilities

Based on our experience in the project REAKT, we present a methodological framework to evaluate the potential benefits and costs of using earthquake early warning (EEW) and operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) for real-time mitigation of seismic risk at nuclear facilities. We focus on evaluating the reliability, significance and usefulness of the aforementioned real-time risk-mitigation tools and on the communication of real-time earthquake information to end-users. We find that EEW and OEF have significant potential for the reduction of seismic risk at nuclear plants, although much scientific research and testing is still necessary to optimise their operation for these sensitive and highly-regulated facilities. While our test bed was Switzerland, the methodology presented here is of general interest to the community of EEW researchers and end-users and its scope is significantly beyond its specific application within REAKT.     

A generalized zero-lag cross-correlation approach for Rapid Earthquake Localization (REL): the example of the Istanbul Megacity Rapid Response System

A seismic antenna approach based on the generalized zero-lag cross-correlation method for rapid earthquake localization is proposed. This method is intended to be applied primarily for early warning, whenever the epicentre-to-target distances guarantee enough lead-time, rapid response purposes, and for those circumstances when a seismogenic area is not directly accessible with seismic stations or/and a network of instruments is concentrated within the area to be warned. The procedure we propose aims to provide useful information for magnitude determination and shake-maps generation. Indeed, it relies only on the first P-wave triggered arrivals from seismic stations, and is designed to work in real-time for the localization of events occurring outside of the network, that is, under conditions that might be detrimental to standard localization approaches. The procedure can by summarized by a few preliminary pre-seismic and real-time co-seismic steps. In the pre-seismic time-frame, for the cases where a large and dense network exists, waiting for all stations to trigger could dramatically reduce the available lead-time for the warning. Therefore, in such cases, the network could profitably be divided into sub-arrays, while also taking advantage of available earthquake recordings or simulated data sets. During the co-seismic time-frame, the main operations are: (1) individual on-site triggering by the P-wave of the seismic stations (e.g. by a STA/LTA algorithm); (2) real-time communication of key parameters (e.g. P-wave arrival time, and signal quality) to a main centre by SMS/WLAN; (3) setup of a pseudo data set, composed by a Gaussian function centred at the P-time, and with a bell width that can be set up proportional to the trigger signal-to-noise ratio (SNR); (4) calculation of a coherency map for the sub-array with triggered stations (preliminary sub-array location); and (5) stacking of coherency maps from the different sub-arrays (final location). By the stack of coherency maps estimated by the different sub-arrays in the last step of the procedure, the epicentral area’s location may be better constrained. This innovative approach for rapid localization was applied to both synthetic data, and real observations of two small earthquakes that occurred in the Marmara Sea, Turkey, which were recorded by the Istanbul Earthquake Rapid Response System.     

A priori models and inversion of gravity gradient data in hilly terrain

The increased popularity of airborne measurements of the gravity gradient tensor for resource studies and geological mapping has resulted in a new awareness of the importance of terrain effects. In these measurements, the terrain effect often overwhelms that of the underlying crust and it becomes important to formulate a strategy for taking it into account when presenting the data and when inverting the data into density models. Using newly acquired data from Northern Sweden, we first attempted to estimate a variable terrain density model by inverting the data using a terrain model with a laterally varying density. Using data weights related to the topography variations, we find the best estimate of the lateral variation of the terrain density. We translate this model into a full three-dimensional model such that all columns have the same vertical centre of mass as estimated from inspecting the radially averaged power spectrum of the area. This then defines a reference model for subsequent three-dimensional inversion of the gravity gradient tensor dataset. We tested this approach first on synthetic data calculated from the measured topography including two density anomalies before we applied it to the measured data. The result is a model in which the surface density variations are propagated downwards in a systematic manner now in better agreement with measured densities of rock samples in the area.     

Symbiont-specific responses in foraminifera to the herbicide diuron

The effects of the photosystem II (PSII) herbicide diuron was assessed on thirteen tropical foraminifera hosting diatom, dinoflagellate, red or green algae endosymbionts. Inhibition of photosynthesis (reduced ΔF/F(m)(')) by diuron depended on both symbiont type and test ultrastructure, with greatest sensitivity observed for diatom- and chlorophyte-hosting species (24h IC(25) 2.5-4μg L(-1)). Inhibition kinetics was slow (24-48h until maximum inhibition) in comparison with corals, suggesting structural differences may influence herbicide uptake and transport. Although foraminifera were generally less sensitive to direct effects of diuron (inhibition ΔF/F(m)(')) than other marine phototrophs, damage to PSII (reduction F(v)/F(m)) occurred at concentrations lower than observed for other organisms (24h IC(25) 3-12μg L(-1)). Damage to PSII was highly light dependent and occurred at very low light intensities indicating limited photoprotective capacity. The high diversity, widespread occurrence and relative sensitivity make foraminifera good bioindicator organisms to evaluate phytotoxic stress on coral reefs.     

Calibration facility for airborne imaging spectrometers

A new facility designed to perform calibration measurements of airborne imaging spectrometers was established at the German Aerospace Center (DLR) in Oberpfaffenhofen. This Calibration Home Base (CHB) is optimized to characterize radiometrically, spectrally, and geometrically the APEX (Airborne Prism Experiment) imaging spectrometer, which is currently being developed under the authority of the European Space Agency (ESA). It however can be used for other optical sensors as well. Computer control of major laboratory equipment allows automation of time consuming measurements. In APEX configuration (wavelength range: 380 to 2500 nm, instantaneous field of view: 0.48 mrad, field of view: ±14) spectral measurements can be performed to a wavelength uncertainty of ±0.15 nm, geometric measurements at increments of 0.0017 mrad across track and 0.0076 mrad along track, and radiometric measurements to an uncertainty of ±3% relative to national standard. The CHB can be adapted to similar sensors (including those with thermal infrared detectors) by exchanging the monochromator’s lamp, the gratings and the filters, and by adjusting the distance between the sensor and folding mirror.     

Earthquake early warning as a tool for improving society’s resilience and crisis response

Increasing vulnerability of metropolitan areas to earthquake and the very low probability level at which short term earthquake forecasting is possible make earthquake early warning methods (EEW) the main viable alternative for effective risk reduction in cities. Preventive actions, such as retrofitting and building and the diffusion of construction codes, are of course essential. They are not sufficient. A substantial proportion of the population in areas of higher earthquake hazard still reside in buildings that do not meet modern earthquake resistant standards, and cannot currently be strengthened in an economically viable manner. As demonstrated in Japan EEW has the potential of significantly contributing to reduce individual vulnerability of urban population to earthquakes. Future research on EEW should be focused on its implementation to protect lifelines, infrastructures and strategic buildings, and it should include training of administrators and people who can fully exploit the technological advantages offered by EEW systems. In particular it should foresee extensive cost-benefit analysis for each potential application, the identification and solution of legal problems (such as liability in the event of false or missed alarms), education and training, both for mitigation and response, as well as detection and processing within 1 s of the first seismic wave arrivals. Further objectives include the development of people-centred EEW, specialized IT and decision making support systems, integration of sensors, communications and decision making systems, integration into programs of eco-sustainable development, and integration with other EW systems (all hazard systems).     

Synergy of satellite remote sensing and numerical modeling for monitoring of suspended particulate matter

Monitoring and modeling of the distribution of suspended particulate matter (SPM) is an important task, especially in coastal environments. Several SPM models have been developed for the North Sea. However, due to waves in shallow water and strong tidal currents in the southern part of the North Sea, this is still a challenging task. In general there is a lack of measurements to determine initial distributions of SPM in the bottom sediment and essential model parameters, e.g., appropriate exchange coefficients. In many satellite-borne ocean color images of the North Sea a plume is visible, which is caused by the scattering of light at SPM in the upper ocean layer. The intensity and length of the plume depends on the wave and current climate. It is well known that the SPM plume is especially obvious shortly after strong storm events. In this paper a quasi-3-D and a 3-D SPM transport model are presented. Utilizing the synergy of satellite-borne ocean color data with numerical models, the vertical exchange coefficients due to currents and waves are derived. This results in models that for the first time are able to reproduce the temporal and spatial evolution of the plume intensity. The SPM models consist of several modules to compute ocean dynamics, the vertical and horizontal exchange of SPM in the water column, and exchange processes with the seabed such as erosion, sedimentation, and resuspension. In the bottom layer, bioturbation via benthos and diffusion processes is taken into account.Responsible Editor: Jörg-Olaf Wolff     

Organochlorine and heavy metal concentrations in blubber and liver tissue collected from Queensland (Australia) dugong (Dugong dugon)

Tissue samples of liver and blubber were salvaged from fifty-three dugong (Dugong dugon) carcasses stranded along the Queensland coast between 1996 and 2000. Liver tissue was analysed for a range of heavy metals and blubber samples were analysed for organochlorine compounds. Metal concentrations were similar in male and female animals and were generally highest in mature animals. Liver concentrations of arsenic, chromium, iron, lead, manganese, mercury and nickel in a number of individual animals were elevated in comparison to concentrations previously reported in Australian dugong. Dieldrin, DDT (and its breakdown products) and/or heptachlor epoxide were detected in 59% of dugong blubber samples. In general, concentrations of organochlorines were similar to those reported in dugong 20 years earlier, and were low in comparison to concentrations recorded from marine mammal tissue collected elsewhere in the world. With the exception of lead, the extent of carcass decomposition, the presence of disease or evidence of animal starvation prior to death did not significantly affect dugong tissue concentrations of metals or organochlorines. The results of the study suggest that bioaccumulation of metals and organochlorine compounds (other than dioxins) does not represent a significant risk to Great Barrier Reef dugong populations, particularly in the context of other pressures associated with coastal development and other anthropogenic activities.     

The geography of global urban greenhouse gas emissions: an exploratory analysis

The purpose of this paper is to describe global urban greenhouse gas emissions by region and sector, examine the distribution of emissions through the urban-to-rural gradient, and identify covariates of emission levels for our baseline year, 2000. We use multiple existing spatial databases to identify urban extent, greenhouse gas emissions (CO₂, N₂O, CH₄ and SF₆) and covariates of emissions in a “top-down” analysis. The results indicate that urban activities are significant sources of total greenhouse gas emissions (36.8 and 48.6 % of total). The urban energy sector accounts for between 41.5 and 66.3 % of total energy emissions. Significant differences exist in the urban share of greenhouse gas emissions between developed and developing countries as well as among source sectors for geographic regions. The 50 largest urban emitting areas account for 38.8 % of all urban greenhouse gas emissions. We find that greenhouse gas emissions are significantly associated with population size, density, growth rates, and per capita income. Finally, comparison of our results to “bottom-up” estimates suggest that this research’s data and techniques are best used at the regional and global scales.     

Laboratory measurements of the <Superscript>12</Superscript>C/<Superscript>13</Superscript>C kinetic isotope effects in the gas-phase reactions of unsaturated hydrocarbons with Cl atoms at 298 ± 3 K

The carbon kinetic isotope effects (KIEs) in the reactions of several unsaturated hydrocarbons with chlorine atoms were measured at room temperature and ambient pressure using gas chromatography combustion isotope ratio mass spectrometry (GCC-IRMS). All measured KIEs, defined as the ratio of the rate constants for the unlabeled and labeled hydrocarbon reaction k ₁₂/k ₁₃, are greater than unity or normal KIEs. The KIEs, reported in per mil according to ^Cl ɛ = (k ₁₂/k ₁₃−1) × 1000‰ with the number of experimental determinations in parenthesis, are as follows: ethene, 5.65 ± 0.34 (1); propene, 5.56 ± 0.18 (2); 1-butene, 5.93 ± 1.16 (1); 1-pentene, 4.86 ± 0.63 (1); cyclopentene, 3.75 ± 0.14 (1); toluene, 2.89 ± 0.31 (2); ethylbenzene, 2.17 ± 0.17 (2); o-xylene, 1.85 ± 0.54 (2). To our knowledge, these are the first reported KIE measurements for reactions of unsaturated NMHC with Cl atoms. Relative rate constants were determined concurrently to the KIE measurements. For the reactions of cyclopentene and ethylbenzene with Cl atoms, no rate constant has been reported in refereed literature. Our measured rate constants are: cyclopentene (7.32 ± 0.88) relative to propene (2.68 ± 0.32); ethylbenzene (1.15 ± 0.04) relative to o-xylene (1.35 ± 0.21), all × 10⁻¹⁰ cm³ molecule⁻¹ s⁻¹. The KIEs in reactions of aromatic hydrocarbons with Cl atoms are similar to previously reported KIEs in Cl-reactions of alkanes with the same numbers of carbon atoms. Unlike the KIEs for previously studied gas-phase hydrocarbon reactions, the KIEs for alkene–Cl reactions do not exhibit a simple inverse dependence on carbon number. This can be explained by competing contributions of normal and inverse isotope effects of individual steps in the reaction mechanism. Implications for the symmetries of the transition state structures in these reactions and the potential relevance of Cl-atom reactions on stable carbon isotope ratios of atmospheric NMHC are discussed.