Crosshole seismic waveform tomography – II. Resolution analysis

In an accompanying paper, we used waveform tomography to obtain a velocity model between two boreholes from a real crosshole seismic experiment. As for all inversions of geophysical data, it is important to make an assessment of the final model, to determine which parts of the model are well-resolved and can confidently be used for geological interpretation. In this paper we use checkerboard tests to provide a quantitative estimate of the performance of the inversion and the reliability of the final velocity model. We use the output from the checkerboard tests to determine resolvability across the velocity model. Such tests can act as good guides for designing appropriate inversion strategies. Here we discovered that, by including both reference-model and smoothing constraints in initial inversions, and then relaxing the smoothing constraint for later inversions, an optimum velocity image was obtained. Additionally, we noticed that the performance of the inversion was dependent on a relationship between velocity perturbation and checkerboard grid-size: larger velocity perturbations were better-resolved when the grid-size was also increased. Our results suggest that model assessment is an essential step prior to interpreting features in waveform tomographic images.     

Assessment of key transport parameters in a karst system under different dynamic conditions based on tracer experiments: the Jeita karst system,Lebanon

Artificial tracer experiments were conducted in the mature karst system of Jeita (Lebanon) under various flow conditions using surface and subsurface tracer injection points, to determine the variation of transport parameters (attenuation of peak concentration, velocity, transit times, dispersivity, and proportion of immobile and mobile regions) along fast and slow flow pathways. Tracer breakthrough curves (TBCs) observed at the karst spring were interpreted using a two-region nonequilibrium approach (2RNEM) to account for the skewness in the TBCs’ long tailings. The conduit test results revealed a discharge threshold in the system dynamics, beyond which the transport parameters vary significantly. The polynomial relationship between transport velocity and discharge can be related to the variation of the conduit’s cross-sectional area. Longitudinal dispersivity in the conduit system is not a constant value (α?=?7–10 m) and decreases linearly with increasing flow rate because of dilution effects. Additionally, the proportion of immobile regions (arising from conduit irregularities) increases with decreasing water level in the conduit system. From tracer tests with injection at the surface, longitudinal dispersivity values are found to be large (8–27 m). The tailing observed in some TBCs is generated in the unsaturated zone before the tracer actually arrives at the major subsurface conduit draining the system. This work allows the estimation and prediction of the key transport parameters in karst aquifers. It shows that these parameters vary with time and flow dynamics, and they reflect the geometry of the flow pathway and the origin of infiltrating (potentially contaminated) recharge.     

Pricing of uncertain certified emission reductions in a Chinese coal mine methane project with an extended Rubinstein-Ståhl model

The development of coal mine methane (CMM) projects is subject to various kinds of risk, one of these being their highly variable methane content. In this study, a new methodology is proposed to reflect the impact of this uncertainty on a negotiated Certified Emission Reduction (CER) price, which is based on the available information. To simulate a process of price negotiation the Rubinstein-Ståhl bargaining game is utilized, where a buyer’s discount factor is unknown. It is assumed that a buyer’s willingness to accomplish price negotiations depends on the CER uncertainty. The bargaining model has been extended by introducing dependence of its three parameters on the probability of a failure to fulfil the contracted CER amount. To quantify this probability, we develop a conditional distribution given information on the point estimate of methane amount for the project under consideration, and on the distribution of available estimates from coal mines having similar characteristics. The proposed approach is applied to a particular CMM capture and utilization project in Anhui province, China. The results indicate that the uncertainty influence is significant, particularly when the credibility of a seller increases, i.e. the probability of a failure to fulfil the project decreases. The analysis can be of use to both negotiating parties at an early stage of a comprehensive CMM project planning.     

Isotopic Approach to Determining the Fate of Ammonium Regenerated from Sediments in a Eutrophic Sub-estuary of Waquoit Bay,MA

We measured fluxes of NH₄⁺ and NO₃⁻ and δ¹⁵N of NH₄⁺, sediment, and porewater NH₄⁺ from incubated sediment cores along a nitrate gradient and in different seasons from Childs River, MA. NH₄⁺ flux was low at the downstream site with the lowest concentration of organic matter (high salinity) but otherwise did not differ along the estuary. The δ¹⁵N of regenerated NH₄⁺ ranged from +6.1‰ to +15.3‰ but did not vary significantly with season or salinity; the mean for the entire estuary was +10.4 ± 0.5‰. Based on differences between the δ¹⁵N of regenerated NH₄⁺ and sediment, and expected isotopic fractionation due to remineralization, we concluded that nitrification occurred after remineralization of NH₄⁺. Differences between the δ¹⁵N of regenerated NH₄⁺ and the δ¹⁵N of porewater NH₄⁺ provided further evidence of nitrification. We estimated that 11% to 48% of remineralized NH₄⁺ underwent coupled nitrification–denitrification before release into the water column. In spite of losses to denitrification, NH₄⁺ flux released 1.4 mol N m⁻² year⁻¹ to the water column and could provide 42% of phytoplankton nitrogen requirements.     

Climate change and the water–energy–food nexus: insights from policy and practice in Tanzania

The threat of climate change is emerging at a time of rapid growth for many economies in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Dominant narratives comprising ambitious development plans are common and often based around sectors with strong inter-dependencies that are highly exposed to climate variability. Using document analysis and key informant interviews, this article examines how climate change is addressed in policy, how it is being mainstreamed into water, energy and agriculture sector policies and the extent to which cross-sectoral linkages enable coordinated action. These questions are addressed through a case study of Tanzania, highlighting broader lessons for other developing countries, particularly those in SSA facing similar challenges. The article finds that, while the agriculture and water sectors are increasingly integrating climate change into policies and plans in Tanzania, practical coordination on adaptation remains relatively superficial. Publication of the Tanzania National Adaptation Plan of Action (NAPA) in 2007 marked a step change in the integration of climate change in sectoral policies and plans; however, it may have reinforced a sectoral approach to climate change. Examining the policies for coherence highlights overlaps and complementarities which lend themselves to a coordinated approach. Institutional constraints (particularly structures and resources) restrict opportunities for inter-sectoral action and thus collaboration is confined to ad hoc projects with mixed success to date. The results highlight the need for institutional frameworks that recognize and address these constraints to enable development goals to be pursued in a more sustainable and climate-resilient manner.

KEY POLICY INSIGHTS

• The NAPA has been successful at encouraging climate change mainstreaming into sectoral policies in Tanzania; however, the cross-sectoral collaboration crucial to implementing adaptation strategies remains limited due to institutional challenges such as power imbalances, budget constraints and an ingrained sectoral approach.

• Collaboration between nexus sectors in Tanzania is largely through ad hoc projects with limited progress on establishing deeper connections to enable collaboration as a process. Regular cross-sectoral planning meetings and consistent annual budgets could provide a platform to enhance cross-sectoral coordination.

• Plans to develop hydropower and agriculture are prevalent across sub-Saharan Africa. Insights from Tanzania highlight the importance of institutional and policy frameworks that enable cross-sectoral coordination.