Changes in the Probability of Heavy Precipitation: Important Indicators of Climatic Change

A simple statistical model of daily precipitation based on the gamma distribution is applied to summer (JJA in Northern Hemisphere, DJF in Southern Hemisphere) data from eight countries: Canada, the United States, Mexico, the former Soviet Union, China, Australia, Norway, and Poland. These constitute more than 40% of the global land mass, and more than 80% of the extratropical land area. It is shown that the shape parameter of this distribution remains relatively stable, while the scale parameter is most variable spatially and temporally. This implies that the changes in mean monthly precipitation totals tend to have the most influence on the heavy precipitation rates in these countries. Observations show that in each country under consideration (except China), mean summer precipitation has increased by at least 5% in the past century. In the USA, Norway, and Australia the frequency of summer precipitation events has also increased, but there is little evidence of such increases in any of the countries considered during the past fifty years. A scenario is considered, whereby mean summer precipitation increases by 5% with no change in the number of days with precipitation or the shape parameter. When applied in the statistical model, the probability of daily precipitation exceeding 25.4 mm (1 inch) in northern countries (Canada, Norway, Russia, and Poland) or 50.8 mm (2 inches) in mid-latitude countries (the USA, Mexico, China, and Australia) increases by about 20% (nearly four times the increase in mean). The contribution of heavy rains (above these thresholds) to the total 5% increase of precipitation is disproportionally high (up to 50%), while heavy rain usually constitutes a significantly smaller fraction of the precipitation events and totals in extratropical regions (but up to 40% in the tropics, e.g., in southern Mexico). Scenarios with moderate changes in the number of days with precipitation coupled with changes in the scale parameter were also investigated and found to produce smaller increases in heavy rainfall but still support the above conclusions. These scenarios give changes in heavy rainfall which are comparable to those observed and are consistent with the greenhouse-gas-induced increases in heavy precipitation simulated by some climate models for the next century. In regions with adequate data coverage such as the eastern two-thirds of contiguous United States, Norway, eastern Australia, and the European part of the former USSR, the statistical model helps to explain the disproportionate high changes in heavy precipitation which have been observed.     

Spatial distribution of phosphorus forms in sediments in the Gulf of Gdańsk (southern Baltic Sea)

The paper analyses the concentrations of total phosphorus and its forms in sediments from the Gulf of Gdańsk on the basis of studies conducted at 25 sampling sites in 2001–05. The phosphorus speciation analysis was performed by sequential extraction. The extensive spatial variability of P_tot concentrations and speciation was found to be dependent on the physicochemical properties of the sediments, the oxygen conditions in the water and sediments, and the depth of the water column above the sediment surface. In the coastal zone, the sedimentation of riverine suspended matter and the sorption and chemisorption processes exert a considerable influence on P speciation. Over 70% of variation of total phosphorus concentration in sediments in the Gulf of Gdańsk could be explained by changes of proportion of fine fraction of sediments (grain size <0.0625 mm). Maximum P_tot concentrations were recorded in clays and silts in the deep water, stratified part of the Gulf of Gdańsk. In the coastal zone, where sandy sediments are dominant, phosphorus concentrations were much lower; this was due to the considerable dynamics of the bottom water and intensive sea floor transport. P_tot concentrations in the Gulf of Gdańsk sediments ranged from 1.75 to 957.17 μmol g⁻¹ d.w. Of all the forms of phosphorus, the highest concentrations were found for organic phosphorus (Org-P). Of its inorganic forms, the highest concentrations were of phosphorus bound to clay minerals and aluminium oxides (NaOH-P), the lowest ones were of loosely bound phosphorus (NaCl-P). On the basis of determinations of total phosphorus concentrations in sediments of a given type and the available data on the seabed areas covered by particular sediment types in the Gulf of Gdańsk, the mass of total phosphorus in the surficial sediment layer (0–2 cm) was estimated at ca. 15.6×10³ tonnes.     

Magnetic structure of polluted soil profiles from Eastern Ukraine

Our study concerned magnetic properties of soil profiles taken from polluted regions of Eastern Ukraine around the industrial centres Krivyj Rig, Mariupol and Komsomolsk. Soils represent chernozem and podzoluvisol. The low-field magnetic susceptibility shows enhancement in the topsoil caused by contamination by coarse-grain magnetite connected with industrial pollution. Magnetic mineralogy was determined by means of thermal demagnetisation of SIRM, monitoring of susceptibility changes during warming from ?196°C to room temperature and heating to 700°C, and Mössbauer analysis. Granulometry of magnetic particles was investigated by determination of hysteresis parameters, susceptibility, M _s , SIRM and ARM ratios and frequency dependence of susceptibility. The chemical parameters, namely pH, organic carbon and iron content in different pedogenic and lithogenic minerals, measured for particular horizons determined pedogenic characteristic of soil profiles. Our study showed that differences in magnetic parameters of non-polluted and polluted soil profiles are not limited to the topsoil, but reach deep layers of the parent material. Industrial pollution promotes formation of the so-called “pedogenic” SP and SD particles in these layers.     

Drought and its effects on spring discharge regimes in Poland and Germany during the 2015 drought

Areas of Western and Central Europe were severely affected by devastating droughts in 2003 and 2015. A sharp decrease in annual atmospheric precipitation led to diminished spring discharges. Analysis of the fluctuations in discharge from three groups of springs in the south of Poland, namely in the Sudetes and Carpathian mountains, and in the German province of Bavaria revealed an average discharge reduction ranging from 52 to 4%. The study proved the existence of a relationship between diminished groundwater recharge from precipitation and the type of rock forming the reservoir as well as the parameters of the rock in the drained catchment. Spring discharge regime was compared for various periods to show that a decline in the regime correlates with a decline in river flow rate; considering the continually changing weather patterns, this correlation is arguably a key factor in sustainable water management.     

Stability of the line preserving flows

We examine the equations that are used to describe flows which preserve field lines. We study what happens if we introduce perturbations to the governing equations. The stability of the line preserving flows in the case of the magneto-fluids permeated by magnetic fields is strictly connected to the non-null magnetic reconnection processes. In most of our study we use the Euler potential representation of the external magnetic field. We provide general expressions for the perturbations of the Euler potentials that describe the magnetic field. Similarly, we provide expressions for the case of steady flow as well as we obtain certain conditions required for the stability of the flow. In addition, for steady flows we formulate conditions under which the perturbations of the external field are negligible and the field may be described by its initial unperturbed form. Then we consider the flow equation that transforms quantities from the laboratory coordinate system to the related external field coordinate system. We introduce perturbations to the equation and obtain its simplified versions for the case of a steady flow. For a given system, use of this method allows us to simplify the considerations provided that some part of the system may be described as a perturbation. Next, to study regions favourable for the magnetic reconnection to occur we introduce a deviation vector to the basic line preserving flows condition equation. We provide expressions of the vector for some simplifying cases. This method allows us to examine if given perturbations either stabilise the system or induce magnetic reconnection. To illustrate some of our results we study two examples, namely a simple laboratory plasma flow and a simple planetary magnetosphere model.